These films could end up being great Ultimate Movie Moguls assets by retaining high IMDb scores and maybe even accumulating a few PTA points as they're "platformed" into theaters -- much the same as is happening right now with both Talk to Me and Rescue Dawn. Some of these films may even grab you a few tallies in the Top 5 column. And if they do end up winning Academy Awards, won't you feel proud to know that you had an Oscar-winner on your slate? Most of these films are being released in the final weeks of September, right near the end of the July-September season, so they will only be of limited help to your July-September studio. (Editor's Note: Mister Informative's column was written prior to the announcement of August-October signups. Your August-October studio -- sign up today! -- could reap some impressive benefits from some of these films, however, so feel free to extrapolate from Mr. I's superhuman ruminations.)

I should say that my expectations are tempered because of the September factor. September is often a dumping ground, as I explored a bit in my last column, and sometimes "prestige" pictures are lost in the shuffle -- or maybe weren't all that hot to begin with. As an example, last September also had some awards hopefuls, three in particular: Hollywoodland, The Black Dahlia and All the King's Men. All three films came up well short of expectations. Hollywoodland, though it did earn Ben Affleck a Golden Globe nomination, found no recognition from the Academy. Black Dahlia scored one nomination, for cinematography -- a far cry from the acting and directing noms that were buzzed about. All the King's Men was even worse: a numbingly long and boring film that basically just strutted Sean Penn across the screen for two-and-a-half hours saying, "My, he's a great actor, isn't he?" It seems these King's Men might have been better suited to helping Humpty Dumpty out; Sony received no nominations of any kind.

That's probably a fairly representative track record for most September "Oscar babies," so I hope my skepticism is understandable when it comes to the majority of these titles. On the other hand, there are a few of them that just may come away with more than "also ran" status in next spring's post-Oscar conversations. And now, the envelope, please ...

THE BRAVE ONE (Sept. 14; $14 Box Office, $23 Ultimate)
This feels almost like a stock Jodie Foster role, strikingly similar to the parts she played in Panic Room and Flightplan. Something causes panic (burglars in the house, a missing child), and Foster shrugs off other options to take matters into her own hands. In The Brave One looks she's brushes away police authorities led by Terrence Howard to exact revenge on those who've brutally attacked her and her partner. The trailer, I will admit, makes this scenario look slightly compelling, if only in parts. It won't be a stinker of a film, no, but I'm not sure it's Oscar-worthy. Much will depend on what director Neil Jordan, renowned for past Oscar darling The Crying Game, brings to the table.

As for Moguls performance, the July-September price tag is a bit high for my tastes, especially in Ultimate leagues, considering the movie only has three weekends in release before the season ends. $65 million is forecast; Flightplan made $60 million and Panic Room brought in $73 million in a comparable time frame, so $65 million is certainly possible. Still, three weekends is pushing it. Consider also that The Brave One is rated R, whereas Flightplan and Panic Room were PG-13. Four PTA points are projected, and I think that might be right on (it depends on how wide the release is), but 7 Top 5 points is the absolute limit; it won't earn any more than that, if it even gets that high. It should perform well in the IMDb score category, but for $23 (Ultimate), you'll probably want much better takes in the other three areas.

FEAST OF LOVE (Sept. 14; $2 Box Office, $17 Ultimate)
Can Robert Benton win an Oscar in a third decade (after 1979's Kramer vs. Kramer and 1984's Places in the Heart)? If you ask me to predict that now, I'd say no. Watching the trailer, I really didn't get a sense of the "magical, mysterious and sometimes painful incarnations of love." I was left thinking it could be interesting, and I know that Morgan Freeman and Greg Kinnear will give excellent performances ... but this really just feels like a film that will reach for emotional heft, yet fail to find it. A great concept, but poor execution, if you will. With this one, I'd definitely be wary of the aforementioned "September effect."

It's expected to have a great IMDb score, and it will; that's virtually guaranteed. Four PTA points are forecast, but it will have competition from The Brave One and Silk for PTA on the weekend of the Sept. 14, and from a host of others films the following weekend. This is one I'd stay away from, not because it'll be a bad film, but because it could easily be overlooked. In that respect, it reminds me a little bit of another movie from last September, The Last Kiss, which also tried to be emotionally heavy (on the same topic, even). That one seemingly got lost, with a not-quite-wide, not-quite-limited 1,300-screen release, a less-than-expected $4.6 million opening weekend, and just $11.6 million overall. Last Kiss succeeded for a while at impressing me, but the ending just completely turned me off; for Feast of Love owners, let's hope that Benton's film doesn't have a similar effect. (It's too bad about Last Kiss, too, because with a script by Paul Haggis, I'd expected greatness all the way through. Speaking of Mr. Haggis, though…)

IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH (Sept. 21; $5 Box Office, $19 Ultimate)
Screenwriter and director Paul Haggis won Oscars in two straight years (as much as some may think Crash was undeserved, it's still a win) and with his track record of Crash, Million Dollar Baby and Casino Royale, I have no doubt that this film will live up to expectations. Drama is what Haggis does best, and the timely subject matter -- Tommy Lee Jones searches for his missing son, an Iraq war veteran -- will also be a factor in selling tickets. (Maybe Jones can erase Man of the House from our memories with a great performance here.)

$31 million is projected, but I think that's more of an entire-run number, and won't be attained in the three weekends Elah has before the July-September season ends. (Box Office Mojo lists its release as limited on Sept. 14, with a wide expansion on the 21st.) Crash made $19 million and Million Dollar Baby about $21 million in those films' first two weeks of wide release; I imagine Elah will end up right around that number. Still, $20 million from a $5 Box Office Moguls pick is not bad at all, and a prestige Ultimate pick that provides that much box office gross right away is a rare gem indeed. Also, by starting out small, Elah will have the opportunity to reap some PTA points; 3 are projected but I think it can exceed that, especially if the wide release is small enough to ensure that all the theaters screening it are full. The projected 5 Top 5 points is the absolute limit, but if Elah can contribute even that much, it will have provided a boost in all 3 categories AND, assuming it keeps a high IMDb score, is a great choice in either league game.

SHINE A LIGHT (Sept. 21; $2 Box Office, $14 Ultimate)
I'd guess that most studio slates containing this film are in the Ultimate game. As a limited documentary release, it's unlikely to make a huge ripple, revenue-wise. Martin Scorsese may have directed this film, about the Rolling Stones, as sort of a companion piece to his widely-praised Bob Dylan doc No Direction Home. Unfortunately, if he's aiming for two Oscars in a row, I don't think he'll get it here. He'll surely be overshadowed in the documentary category by Michael Moore's Sicko (I will refrain from making light of Mr. Moore's pudginess and the shadow THAT might cast), the Don Cheadle-narrated An Indifferent World (about the crisis in Darfur) and even Leo DiCaprio's The 11th Hour. Stones nostalgia should be good for a few PTA points (though with all the other releases on the Sept. 21, it won't get any more than 5 in two weeks), and a good IMDb score should be expected. I still wouldn't Light up my slate -- for the same price or less, you could have Ang Lee's Lust, Caution (speaking, incidentally, of Oscar-bait) for PTA points (although be Caution-ed that making that choice gives you only one weekend before the season ends), or a prior recommendation of mine, The Ten. (A few of the other titles in this column are also similarly priced; more on them in a bit.)

INTO THE WILD (Sept. 21; $4 Box Office, $10 Ultimate)
This looks like another September prestige picture that's destined to simply fall short. Into the Wild is an adaptation of Jon Krakauer's non-fiction narrative of the curious case of Christopher McCandless. Sean Penn wrote the screenplay and is also directing. The cast is great: Emile "Speed Racer" Hirsch is the protagonist, who abandons his possessions and gives his savings to charity to set off, well, into the wild to find himself. Vince Vaughn (perhaps an atypical role for him), 40-year-old non-virgin Catherine Keener, Marcia Gay Harden and William Hurt also appear. Penn, Harden and Hurt are all past Oscar-winners, and Keener is a two-time nominee. Adventure dramas are a tough sell, however, at least commercially. To be honest, I can't say I've seen a whole lot of them on the recent release schedule, and even IMDb's Top 10 highest rated "adventure" films includes two episodes of Star Wars and all three Lord of the Rings films, all of which I'd consider more fantasy than adventure.

Self-discovery is noteworthy and can make for a great performance, sure, but Hirsch's McCandless doing so through nature is probably a much more satisfying to read about than it is to watch. Reading a book allows you to formulate your own mental images in addition to thinking about themes, but with a film adaptation, you're given the director's image, which may or may not line up with yours. Besides, if nature never really awes you, you might be even more disinterested. Into the Wild could be a valuable pick in July-September leagues, but mostly in the Box Office game. $23 million is projected, and the film could come close to accomplishing that, though I think it'll fall even a smidge short of $20 million before the season ends. Last year's adventure drama The Guardian opened to $18 million, and if Into the Wild can manage even half that, it should be in good shape, especially with that $4 Box Office price tag. Two top 5 points are expected, but no PTA, so in Ultimate leagues, stay away. Instead, pick something like War, which costs the same and should manage more box office revenue and more top 5 points.

THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD (Sept. 21; $8 Box Office, $12 Ultimate)
If any of the films featured in this column win an Academy Award, I'd say this is the one that has the best shot. One reason is that it's something different: How long has it been since a western (as Moguls classifies this film) has been on the release schedule? The producers are Brad Pitt (who also plays Jesse James), Ridley Scott (director of the upcoming American Gangster) and The Departed's Brad Grey. I realize that track records don't guarantee success (i.e. Scott's own A Good Year from last fall), but with those three producers together, I think it's extremely likely that an excellent film will result.

Since his Oscar nomination for Twelve Monkeys, Brad Pitt has pursued, it seems, more commercial roles (the Ocean's trilogy, Troy, Mr. and Mrs. Smith), but after last year's Babel and production duties on The Departed and partner Angelina Jolie's A Mighty Heart, it's evident that Mr. Pitt still knows quality cinema. He should deliver a fine performance as James, and even just judging from the short teaser trailer, Casey Affleck (so are him and Pitt, like, buddies now?) looks to break out as Robert Ford. (His only award nominations are for best ensemble cast as part of Ocean's Eleven -- perhaps that'll change this year.) Even with no full trailer for this movie yet released, I must say it's one that I'm really looking forward to this fall.

Projections are for $49 million box office, but again, that's highly unlikely in two weeks. Two PTA points and 4 Top 5 points are also projected. I don't know how wide the release will be on the Sept. 21, but that number will have a huge bearing on the possibilities for PTA and Top 5 scoring. September is weak enough that even a 1,000-screen release could be enough to sneak Jesse James into the top 5 for a week or two. It won't exceed expectations (at least not right off the bat; if reviews are strong, Warner Bros. might go with a "slow burn" on this one) but it'll certainly provide a small boost in every category -- a great value as a $12 Ultimate pick.

ACROSS THE UNIVERSE (Sept. 28; $5 Box Office, $14 Ultimate)
The use of Beatles music throughout this film is a great concept. And not just as a soundtrack, as was done for I Am Sam; it's also used to put the film in a historical context and even tell its story -- the movie follows a man named Jude. It's certainly something you don't see every day, and it definitely doesn't look like including the music is just an attempt to make a "Beatles tribute movie." As much as I don't agree with the Beatles's statement that, "All you need is love," I think Across the Universe will receive great critical reviews. Again, just the concept of intertwining the music throughout the film is noteworthy, in a good way.

Unfortunately, this film is released with just three days of eligibility in the July–September season, so picking it is really not a good value. Projections are for $45 million, 3 PTA points, and 6 Top 5 points. Clearly, we must keep in mind that projections are for the film's entire run, not just its time in the any given season of Fantasy Moguls. $45 million over the opening weekend is out of the question; 3 PTA might happen, but 6 Top 5 points in one weekend is statistically impossible. It'd be better to spend that $14 on something like Shoot 'Em Up, even if for no other reason than that Shoot 'Em Up has four weeks in the game. For $5 in a Box Office league, grab In the Valley of Elah, or, if you don't object to having a colossal stinker on your roster, even (shudder) Daddy Day Camp. In later August–October leagues, Across the Universe will be a much better pick.

Of course, it could end up that none of these films receive any sort of Academy (or other awards) consideration. If one of them helps put your Box Office or Ultimate slate over the top, however, then you'll still be a winner.

Mister Informative would like to thank his agent, Hilary Swank's (ex-)husband and whoever will join him in his vow to stamp out all Cuba Gooding Jr. sequels to terrible Eddie Murphy movies. Pledge your solidarity to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.