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July 24, 2007

TIP OF THE WEEK: Mister Informative puts together his Holiday Shopping List

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! Mister Informative here. With the summer season drawing to a close, or at least drawing to the end of July, we've already seen and experienced all the "big guns" of the "school's out" portion of the calendar. These are the films that will probably end up at the top of the heap when year-end gross figures are tallied. In 2006, just one non-summer release, Night at the Museum, ranked among Top 5 grossing films of the year. Even though it made about half its total in early 2007, the final number is all-inclusive since Museum was released last December.

As it stands now, the Top 5 highest moneymaking films (in order) of 2007 are:

1. Spider-Man 3 -- $335 million
2. Shrek the Third -- $318 million
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End -- $306 million
4. Transformers -- $262 million
5. 300 -- $210 million

No surprises there. We know Transformers still has life in it, and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix stands close behind, at No. 6; it'll certainly overtake 300, possibly even by the time this column is published. But what of the rest of the year? Could there be a Museum-esque box office juggernaut out there, lurking in October, November, or December? (Heck, maybe not lurking; sometimes a movie looks big from the get-go.) In this column, I'm taking a long look ahead at a few movies slated for release in the final three months of 2007. I'll explain why I think they could be cash cows of sorts, when the time comes. Call 'em my Elite Eight of the rest of the year.

To begin, here's a bit of background. Last year's eight highest-grossing titles released in October, November, or December were:

1. Night at the Museum (Family) -- $250 million
2. Happy Feet (Animated) -- $198 million
3. Casino Royale (Book adaptation / Franchise) -- $167 million
4. The Pursuit of Happyness (Will Smith) -- $163 million
5. The Departed (Crime drama) -- $132 million
6. Borat (Comedy) -- $128 million
7. Dreamgirls (Awards hopeful / Musical) -- $103 million
8. The Santa Clause 3 (Christmas) -- $84 million

You'll notice I included the overall genre for each of those films. Ironically, the potential holiday blockbusters of 2007 fall under the same general headings:

1. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Family)
2. Bee Movie (Animated)
3. The Golden Compass (Book adaptation) and National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Franchise)
4. I Am Legend (Will Smith)
5. American Gangster (Crime drama)
6. Leatherheads (Comedy)
7. Sweeney Todd (Musical) and Charlie Wilson's War (Awards hopeful)
8. Fred Claus (Christmas)

First on my list is Stranger Than Fiction writer Zach Helm's directing debut, Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Nov. 16), which feels like Museum mixed with Toy Story, with a dash of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory's eccentricity. It's big, it's got loads of special effects and everyone can go see it together. There's Dustin Hoffman for parents to enjoy, and Natalie Portman (although who else thinks she is a little creepy in the trailer?) and the magical toys story will hold the kids' attention. Emporium could indeed be Wonder-ful for 20th Century Fox (and of course, for Moguls owners). Walden Media has had some big successes with movies based on books (The Chronicles of Narnia, Bridge to Terabithia), and some pretty spectacular failures (Hoot, How To Eat Fried Worms). I think this one will be a success. It won't do Night at the Museum business -- the "star power" isn't quite the same -- but if it gains a foothold in November, Mr. Magorium could end up with $80-$90 million, in the range of movies like Open Season or Charlotte's Web, with an outside shot at going higher.

Filling the Happy Feet animated animal (okay, in this case, insect) movie slot ("And what is the deal with those animated movies?") is Bee Movie (Nov. 2). I'm not really a big fan of Jerry Seinfeld, and let's not even get into my distaste for Renee Zellweger (can she stop squinting, please?), but as voice actors, I'm a more willing to accept them both. Besides, kids aren't going to care who's doing the voices of the characters. I doubt many elementary-age children know Mike Myers is the voice of Shrek, or could name some of his other movies (to use another DreamWorks film example). The plot doesn't sound great, but again, that's not a big deal -- Barry B. Benson (voiced by Seinfeld) journeys outside the hive, discovers that humans eat honey, and decides to sue all of mankind because hey, making honey is what bees do! And humans steal it and EAT IT? Amusing perspective, at least.

Here's the big thing -- there's really nothing kid-oriented coming out for over a month before Bee Movie hits theaters. (The Game Plan will have late September and all of October pretty much to itself.) That first November weekend has been host to successful animated films in each of the past 3 years, as well: The Incredibles (Nov. 5, 2004), Chicken Little (Nov. 4, 2005), and Flushed Away (Nov. 3, 2006). Paramount has also been making sure trailers are placed on a LOT of recent films, including Transformers and Harry Potter, so knowledge of the movie is bound to go up. (The trailer will probably play before all prints of Hot Rod, too, because both movies are distributed by Paramount.) Hence, Bee Movie stands to do very well. I see it topping out slightly under the $155 million benchmark of last year's Over the Hedge, if only because, by Thanksgiving, Bee Movie will be battling a sizeable field. I'll say $150 million. Generous, perhaps, but still a valuable contribution for your holiday Fantasy Moguls leagues.

In the book adaptation category, we have New Line's attempt to relive their Lord of the Rings success, The Golden Compass (Dec. 7). The Golden Compass (first in a potential trilogy) features Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig, and Eva Green. (Casino Royale cast members, unite! Or is Craig chasing Kidman? 'Cause he's got two films with her this year ... if they haven't already, I'm sure the tabloids will spin some stories about that soon.) Oh, and there are talking polar bears in the movie, which is pretty cool if you ask me. (Have New Line and Coke made a product placement deal yet? 'Cause those Coca-Cola polar bear commercials always air around Christmas anyway ... ) However, I digress. New Line has made this their biggest production expenditure since Lord of the Rings, so I'm optimistic that a quality picture will result. Phillip Pullman, author of Compass and its sequels (The Subtle Knife and The Amber Spyglass) , is no Tolkien or C.S. Lewis, but The Golden Compass should still pull down some serious December dough. Don't look for Frodo Baggins numbers, but I think $120-$130 million is well within reach.

Also worth a mention here is National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Dec. 21). Per my above list, it fits the "franchise" designation. The first film made $173 million domestically, a big surprise even considering its reported $100 million budget. Hence, a sequel was a no-brainer. Nicolas Cage should at least being to make up for Wicker Man, Ghost Rider and Next with this one (though we're not about to let him off the hook because of just one semi-respectable film), and it'll almost surely top the Christmas holiday weekend box office. Whether it has as much staying power as its predecessor is an open question, but this will be one of the December biggies nonetheless. If people like it, it could equal the first National Treasure, but I don't think it goes any higher than $150 million. It's been a year of sequels, and this is just one more for the list.

Will Smith can choose to act in nearly any type of movie and be box office gold, whether it's comedy (Hitch), action (I, Robot), or drama (the aforementioned Pursuit of Happyness). He returns again this winter with sci-fi-action-horror pic I Am Legend (Dec. 14). Following a biological holocaust, Smith's Robert Neville is the last man on Earth, living alone in New York City. Every night, the Fresh Prince must channel his inner Charlton Heston (who played the same character, more or less, in the 1971 film The Omega Man), to fight off an attack from bloodthirsty vampire zombies. The teaser trailer is excellent -- let's just hope that the villains/zombies don't end up looking really stupid or cliche. I look forward to seeing a full trailer, but I can already tell that the Will Smith cash train will not be slowing down here. He may be the last man on Earth, but as the tagline for the film cautions, he isn't alone -- and he won't be lonely at the box office either. Maybe $165 million (right in line with Hitch, Robot, and Happyness) will raise his spirits a little.

The Departed was both a critical and commercial success last October, surpassing its estimated $90 million budget by its fourth week in release and winning 4 Oscars last February. A film that looks to fit that mold this year is American Gangster (Nov. 2), directed by three-time Oscar nominee Ridley Scott, and starring Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe. There's no reason to think this film can't deliver at the box office AND be well-received by critics; it might even earn Mr. Scott his fourth best director  Oscar nomination. Comparisons between American Gangster and The Departed are probably inevitable, but in this case, the similarity is a positive. Scorsese and a big-name cast (Alec Baldwin, Matt Damon, Leo DiCaprio) propelled The Departed to over $130 million, and I think Scott, Washington and Crowe will boost American Gangster to a similar heights. Frankly, this looks like Ridley Scott's best directorial project since Black Hawk Down ($107 million) or Gladiator ($180 million). American Gangster's take should fall somewhere in between (a difference-splitting $140 million?), and once November leagues open up, this one will be a solid pick in both types of Fantasy Moguls league.

Of course, winter wouldn't be complete without a good comedy to chuckle at, so George Clooney steps up to the plate (Wait, wrong sport -- I mean, up to the ... 50-yard line?) with Leatherheads (Dec. 7), set in the world of 1920s professional football. (Looking at the pictures that have been released, does anyone else think those uniforms look a bit like the old Acme Packers ones? As a Wisconsinite, I notice these things ... ) I'm a bit ... displeased that Renee Zellweger plays the love interest, but I can tolerate her because the humor Clooney displays in the Ocean's movies makes me intrigued to see what he does here. Ocean's director Steven Soderbergh is also on board as a producer, and that, I think, spells good things for Leatherheads. It's supposed to be an homage of sorts to the old-style screwball comedy, with a bit of romance thrown in. It might be a tough sell, but there's Clooney for the ladies, The Office's John Krasinski, also for the ladies, and the sports aspect for the guys. I think it can catch on and come away with a bit over $100 million by the time all is said and done. (Hey, if Norbit can make $95 million ...) It makes good counter-programming as something more adult-oriented than The Golden Compass, but not as scary or action-heavy as I Am Legend.

December also abounds awards hopefuls, and Charlie Wilson's War (Dec. 25) fits that description perfectly. TV wunderkind writer Aaron Sorkin wrote the screenplay (based on a book, perhaps it's a candidate for a best adapted screenplay Oscar?), Mike Nichols directs and three Oscar-winners (Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Phillip Seymour Hoffman) star. Since the film deals with politics (it's about a Congressman's covert financing of Afghan rebels against the Soviets, and the effects of doing so that reach further than expected), it'll have an audience. Much like The Good Shepherd, which managed $59 million last year. My guess is that Charlie Wilson's War will exceed that number, if only thanks to Hanks, and especially if it emerges as a major Best Picture contender. I think $80-$90 million is probable.

DreamWorks rolled out Dreamgirls last December, which crooned its way to $103 million and two Oscars. This year, they've got Sweeney Todd (Dec. 21) in the musical department, the latest Tim Burton / Johnny Depp collaboration. (The classic story is twisted and darkly comedic; perfect for Tim Burton to direct.) Like Dreamgirls, Sweeney Todd will open limited (perhaps garnering some PTA points), and expand to a wide release in mid-January. Given that Dreamgirls made over $100 million, and given the recent success of Hairspray, Sweeney Todd could make a big difference in winter leagues. I'll say $60 million, because Burton films are truly quirky and, well, weird -- they're often cult hits and not overall box office smashes. It'll earn more if the film garners some awards recognition.

And naturally, as we approach the winter season, there's got to be a Christmas-themed movie to rake in the dough. This year, it'll be Fred Claus (Nov. 9), directed by Wedding Crashers helmer David Dobkin. Vince Vaughn stars as Santa's joe-schmoe brother. No rating yet, but it looks like an R-rated comedy (a la Crashers or similar off-color Christmas movie Bad Santa) is not quite the aim here. Still, it'll bring in families -- and I'll admit, as much as I'd enjoy R-rated humor, a PG-13 or PG rating presents a much rosier box office forecast. $120 million seems about right; it'll open nicely, then slow down and pick up again as December hits. Although, as the only wide-release Christmas movie this winter, it could 'catch on' and go much higher, especially if it's family friendly. It may even get to Elf-ish $170 million levels. At the very least, it HAS to perform better than The Santa Clause 3. It just HAS to.

And there you have it; Mr. Informative's Elite Eight (er, Terrific Ten). There's some possible biggies in the bunch, but it's also very possible that, by year's end, nothing will have come close to those five big summer tentpole releases. Even so, these winter films will still rake it in -- or rather, since it's winter, shovel it in. Next week I'll pull my head out of the Halloween candy, stuffing and potatoes, and pinecones and holly berries and get back to films that are coming out a little bit sooner.

Mister Informative thinks that Nicolas Cage himself is a national treasure. Or at least he used to be. Maybe the Illuminati stole his mojo. Or maybe it was the Freemasons. Or Opus Dei. Make your own suggestion to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.

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Posted at 10:25 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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Comments

Chienfantome

Here are 3 movies Mr Informative left out of the equation but I think have their chances at doing excellent business :
"The Heartbreak Kid", Robert Redford's "Lions For Lambs" (Redford + Streep + Cruise ???), and "Robert Zemeckis' Beowulf".

Posted by: Chienfantome | July 24, 2007 at 11:35 AM

jesica

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Posted by: jesica | July 25, 2007 at 02:14 AM

Shrykespeare

I never realized (until now) that Will Smith was a genre! (guffaw)

Posted by: Shrykespeare | July 25, 2007 at 10:40 AM

chris

If one considers the period to include October releases, I would be surprised if "The Dark is Rising" film, if it is a worthy effort, does not end up on this list. The movie is based on a classic children's series and the trailer has been prominently featured during HP & the Order of Phoenix screenings. Given that the story features magic and includes our culture's best known wizard, Harry Potter fans are sure to seek this one out. The kids will want to see one more magical world and their parents will see the added bonus of keeping their kids reading. I haven't screened the film and the trailer suggests some modernization of the family dynamics. It's unclear whether those will fly. When Cooper wrote the series, it was permissible to have siblings be kind to each other in spite of minor bickerings. If this change does not break the story's feel, this may be seen as a welcome addition to this year's listings.

Posted by: chris | July 28, 2007 at 11:05 AM

Mister Informative

Ah, the question is though, will "The Dark Is Rising" be a worthy effort? I haven't seen a trailer (in my area it's not showing with Harry Potter) but... not every book can be a smash hit movie.

Posted by: Mister Informative | August 01, 2007 at 12:15 AM

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