STUDS

There's a reason my fellow advice man Shrykespeare calls The Bourne Ultimatum (Aug. 3) August's lone blockbuster. (He's right, folks.) You've got the final movie in a trilogy that saw the first installment make over $120 million and the second top $175 million, and a returning director in Paul Greengrass whose fast-moving style is part of the series' draw. Given how well Live Free or Die Hard has done so far this summer ($116 million), it seems clear that there's an audience out there just waiting (salivating, even) for Jason Bourne. It may not happen, but I really hope that Ultimatum breaks Rush Hour 2's $67 million August opening weekend record; Chris Tucker needs to be knocked down a peg. (The Bourne Supremacy made $52 million on opening weekend, nearly twice as much as The Bourne Identity, so maybe there's a shot?) $140 million is projected; regardless of whether The Bourne Ultimatum breaks the August opening record, it will definitely collect that much.

To be fair, the expectations for Hot Rod (Aug. 3) aren't exactly that high, but it's for precisely that reason that I think the movie will meet or exceed those expectations. The projected $38 million is doable. As I've said before, if Andy Samberg can attract even just a portion of the SNL lovin' crowd that helped Talladega Nights to $148 million last year, then hitting $38 million is almost a certainty. I know Will Ferrell is a bigger draw than Mr. Samberg, but with as wide a release as Hot Rod will be getting (Box Office Mojo estimates 2,500 screens), I think $10-15 million on opening weekend is definitely possible. (It may perform similarly to License to Wed, which opened just under a month ago on 2,600 screens to $10 million and crossed the $38 million mark this past weekend.) You won't get any more Top 5 and PTA points than are projected, but the box office totals could surprise.

Superbad (Aug. 17) might not be a great movie, but it will piggyback on the success of Knocked Up, and with Seth Rogen and Judd Apatow both involved here, you can bet that this flick will rake it in by August standards. Sony is playing all of the right trump cards, too; all their advertising proclaims that Superbad is "from the guys that brought you The 40-Year-Old Virgin, Talladega Nights and Knocked Up." I still don't think Jonah Hill can carry a movie, but it won't be him that carries Superbad, it'll be the fact that Judd Apatow is producing -- as Will Ferrell's Mugatu character in Zoolander might say, Apatow is "so hot right now." $55 million, as is projected, should easily fall by the wayside -- I think Superbad will make just under half that in its opening weekend alone. (Somewhere along the lines of The 40-Year-Old Virgin's $21 million opening feels about right.) At just $8 in Box Office leagues and a ridiculous $2 in Ultimate ones, this could end up being a pretty good steal.

Leonardo DiCaprio's environmental documentary project, The 11th Hour (Aug. 17) should be successful just as Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth was last year. Truth made $21 million in 11 weeks (precisely the amount of time 11th Hour has before Aug.-Oct. leagues end), and also would have pulled down a whopping 14 PTA points in that time. Theater patrons concerned about health care in the United States have requested their local multiplexes book Sicko over the past few weeks as Lionsgate has slowly expanded it to a wide 1,100 screen release, and the film has brought in 9 PTA points and nearly $20 million so far. There are just as many out there concerned about global warming and impending ecological disaster, so I expect similar performance from The 11th Hour. (The release plan is also similar; it will play in L.A. and New York City on the weekend of Aug. 17, with expansions in subsequent weekends to the Top 15 and Top 100 markets, building awareness.) It should be a solid PTA earner and, once it gets a wider release, will earn some decent box office revenue as well. Positive reviews are almost guaranteed. It'll cost you a pretty penny, especially in Ultimate leagues ($27), but its performance should make it worth the investment.

My last August stud doesn't fit the moniker all that well, but will still bring down major bucks towards the end of the month. (What would the female equivalent of a stud be, anyway?) The oft-moved (thank you, Weinsteins) The Nanny Diaries (Aug. 24) appears to have prime positioning in the "chick flick" market: There's a month between now and then for No Reservations to play out its hand, and a month after that loaded with guy stuff: action (Shoot  'Em Up, War, The Kingdom), westerns (3:10 to Yuma, The Assassination of Jesse James) and dude comedies (The Brothers Solomon, Mr. Woodcock, Good Luck Chuck). The Nanny Diaries should easily place first at the box office over its opening weekend, and has a shot at staying at No. 1 for two weeks. It'll run you $30 in Ultimate leagues and $28 in Box Office ones, but again, it's a lock to meet its projections -- you won't be disappointed by picking it. (As summer comparisons go, think more like Ocean's 13 than Evan Almighty.) In fact, I think $66 million might be a little low as far as box office revenue goes.

DUDS

The last time Jennifer Lopez starred in a movie opposite her real-life lover, America was treated to Gigli and the only slightly better-performing Jersey Girl. Now she's back again with husband Marc Anthony in El Cantante (Aug. 3). On-screen renditions of off-screen couples don't cut it; it's like telling an inside joke to people who aren't on the inside. (Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie don't count; they weren't a couple until AFTER Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Though making the movie together almost certainly got them thinking.) Early reviews have been awful, too, as noted by Steve Mason in last week's Movie Market column. $22 million is out of the question, as is the one projected Top 5 point. With holdovers and a slew of new releases (The Bourne Ultimatum, Hot Rod, Underdog -- heck, even Bratz) opening against it, El Cantante doesn't stand a chance of cracking the Top 5, and its 600 screen release is too wide to merit any PTA consideration, even if salsa lovers flock to the theater. For $6 in a box office league, grab Dan in Real Life or We Own the Night, or even cheaper titles like August Rush or The Heartbreak Kid (being offered for the inconceivable low, low cost of $2). $14 for El Cantante in Ultimate leagues is practically highway robbery -- stay away.

I will admit, it's almost gotten to the point of beating a dead horse to death with this film. But even with the low expectations set out for it, Daddy Day Camp (Aug. 8) just looks like a stinker of a film. When I was discussing the movie a few days ago, a fellow mogul made a good point: there's always a kids movie that comes out of nowhere to do very well, regardless of how shoddy it looks -- The Pacifier, for example. Unfortunately for Cuba Gooding Jr., this will not be that film. (If there's an August release that does fit that bill, it'll be Underdog.) Sure, the first film made $104 million, but neither of the stars is returning. Look how well that worked out for Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj ($4.3 million total). DDC may bring in a few million, but there are much better $2 options out there.

How is Chris Tucker one of the highest paid actors in Hollywood? How? He hasn't made ANY movies whatsoever, not even bit parts, since the first two Rush Hour films. And yet he's back again, cashing a big paycheck for Rush Hour 3 (Aug. 10). I realize that this movie will still do decent business; after all, it's only projected to make $60 million. It'll probably make at least that much, but that's an awfully small haul for $21 in an Ultimate league, especially since the 5 projected Top 5 points are questionable as well. (A surer thing, The Brave One, is only $2 more.) It'll cost you $28 in Box Office leagues, but for that price, you'd be much safer going with The Nanny Diaries. Maybe part of it is just my dislike for Chris Tucker, but Rush Hour 3 might be the worst threequel idea (Daddy Day Camp is only a sequel) this year. It could do well, but it's much more likely that it'll fall well short of expectations.

I keep hearing positive things about Stardust (Aug. 10), but I'm really not convinced. I'll go against the grain and say the projected $71 million is too ambitious. The perpetual caveat with fantasy stories is that all the mythical and mystical happenings can often get too confusing. The Harry Potter films have avoided this by eliminating many of the smaller storylines from the movies (even though that might disappoint some of the more avid book fans). Stardust, on the other hand, looks like it could be running square into that problem. Pirates, evil witches, a fallen star, a king AND an enchanted unicorn? Claire Danes just can't catch a break, can she? The film falls under the general heading of "fantasy," but is it a fantasy romance? Fantasy adventure? Fantasy action? I can't tell by the trailers, and sometimes, it looks like a jumbled mess of all three. If you go in expecting a sweet romantic side, you might be taken aghast by all the swashbuckling pirate/witch action. Or if you're expecting cool battles and effects, what's this sappy love story doing interrupting it all? I know there's positive buzz, but it still just seems iffy to me.

A few columns back, I wrote that The Invasion (Aug. 17) might be a great August bargain, as a supernatural thriller that clicked with the teen horror crowd, sort of like Signs did back in 2002. Now, I've completely changed my mind, and I'm going to predict this will fall short of expectations. Why, you might ask? I recently re-watched the trailer, and my first reaction afterwards was "Huh? That didn't really make any sense." I get the concept of aliens invading human bodies, but the "you will feel nothing" creepiness sort of just falls flat. There's a fun story from the IMDb trivia pages, though:

"While filming at the Chilean Embassy in Washington D.C. Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig were to drive a white SUV to the entrance, stop the car and allow valets to park it. Kidman forgot to place the car in park and as she got out it began to roll down the hill. Craig swooped in from the passenger side and dove at the car, hitting the emergency brake and stopping the disaster from proceeding. This happened during heavy rain effects."

Was the Bond theme music playing at the time too? Daniel Craig's great, but he can't save the movie by himself. Even after the film wrapped, Warner Bros. brought in the Wachowski brothers for rewrites and V for Vendetta director James McTeigue for reshoots, apparently unsatisfied with the result. And if even the distributing studio is unsure about the movie, that doesn't bode well for its chances once released. I have a feeling the movie will seem almost disjointed, as the editors have had to combine both directors' scenes. With a reported $50 million budget, it'll probably make back its money, but it won't become the sleeper hit I once thought was possible.

And there you have it: August will begin with a big Bourne bang and be put to bed by a chick-pleasing Nanny. Next week I'll take a look at the prospects of some films further into the new season. Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative has an idea for Cuba Gooding Jr. How about sloppy seconds from Sam Jackson? C-Good can play an FBI agent escorting an endangered witness by sea, and we'll call it Boat Trip 2: Snakes on a Cruise. Eh? Eh? If you know the number of Mr. Gooding's agent, please chime in to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.