• All-time biggest Tuesday ($27.85 million)
• All-time third-best Wednesday ($29.07 million)
• All-time fifth-best Thursday ($19.17 million)
• All-time 16th-best opening three days of release [Tuesday thru Thursday] ($76.1 million)
• All-time 4th-best opening three days of release for a non-sequel [Tuesday thru Thursday] ($76.1 million)
• All-time 12th-best opening four days of release [Tuesday thru Friday] ($98.6 million)
• All-time second-best opening four days of release for a non-sequel [Tuesday thru Friday] ($98.6 million)
• All-time ninth-best opening five days of release [Tuesday thru Saturday] ($124.5 million)
• All-time second-best opening five days of release for a non-sequel [Tuesday thru Saturday] ($124.5 million)
• All-time sixth-best opening six days of release [Tuesday thru Sunday] ($143.7 million)
• All-time second-best opening six days of release for a non-sequel [Tuesday thru Sunday] ($143.7 million)
• All-time sixth-best opening seven days of release [Monday thru Sunday] ($152.5 million)
• All-time best opening six days of release for a non-sequel [Monday thru Sunday] ($152.5 million)

I hate to brag, because I'm regularly humbled by this business, by if you scroll all the way down to the column I wrote on Monday, the one that details the final industry tracking for Transformers, my prediction for the first full week of release was exactly $152 million. (Occasionally, I get one right.)

My Exclusive Fantasy Moguls Early 3-Day Estimates released Friday night were spot-on with the exception of Pixar's Ratatouille (Buena Vista), which came in at $29.02 million as opposed to the $33.3 million I projected. The film is doing very well, but it's a notch below previous Pixar films. Still, a 38 percent drop from its opening weekend is a solid hold, and its 10-day cume of $109.5 million is just 6.5 percent behind last year's Cars after 10 days.

Here are the 3-Day Studio Estimates (released Sunday morning), followed by my Exclusive Fantasy Moguls Early 3-Day Estimates (released Friday night) and the percentage I missed by:

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES (Released Sunday morning)
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $67.6 million [$152.5 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $67.3 million, missed by less than 1 percent
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $29.02 million [$109.5 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $33.3 million, missed by 13 percent
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17.4 million [$84.1 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $17.7 million, missed by 2 percent
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $10.4 million [$17.8 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $9.84 million, missed by 5 percent
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8.1 million [$78.1 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $8.02 million, missed by 1 percent
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $7.1 million [$53.7 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $6.57 million, missed by 7 percent
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $5.1 million [$132 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $5.1 million, correct
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.1 million [$123.7 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $4.2 million, missed by 2 percent
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $3.6 million [$11.5 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $3.4 million, missed by 6 percent
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.5 million [$109.1 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day estimate (released Friday night): $3.6 million, missed by 3 percent

On the PTA front, it's very close between Transformers and Werner Herzog's Rescue Dawn (MGM) starring Christian Bale. It looks to me like the Vietnam POW escape movie has pulled off an upset with just under $17,000 per location. Joshua (Fox Searchlight), an award-winner at the Sundance Film Festival, appears to be No. 3 with just over $8,000 per, followed by Warner Independent's Introducing the Dwights and Ratatouille.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- 6 locations, $16,974 PTA
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- 4,011 locations, $16,853 PTA
3. Joshua (Fox Searchlight) -- 6 locations, $8,197 PTA
4. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- 4 locations, $7,472 PTA
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- 3,940 locations, $7,367 PTA
6. Lady Chatterley (Kino) -- 2 locations, $6,563 PTA
7. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- 702 locations, $5,199 PTA
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- 3,411 locations, $5,101 PTA
9. Broken English (Magnolia) -- 15 locations, $4,817 PTA
10. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- 162 locations, $4,356 PTA

SATURDAY NIGHT: The Autobots and Decepticons rode a monstrous Saturday matinee to an estimated $25.42 million, bringing the five-and-a-half-day take for Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) to a staggering $132.8 million.

In order to figure out what the Michael Bay-directed epic will generate on Sunday, 2005's War of the Worlds (Dreamworks) is an interesting comparable. The Spielberg sci-fi thriller opened on a Wednesday, and its Saturday-to-Sunday drop was about 15 percent. Transformers will have been in theaters an extra day-and-a-half, but it is also generating much bigger ticket sales and more positive buzz than War. If we pencil in a 20 percent drop for Transformers, its three-day weekend will be $68.26 million, and its Monday-thru-Sunday gross will be $153.1 million. That would be the all-time seventh-best seven-day gross in modern box-office history, and the best-ever for a non-sequel (topping 2002's original Spider-Man, which posted a $151.6 million mark).

Pixar's Ratatouille (Buena Vista) officially passed the $100 million mark, adding an estimated $11.11 million on Saturday. After a below-Pixar-standards $47 million on opening weekend, Remy and friends have been "cooking up" some impressive grosses. Although Ratatouille is still far behind Pixar mega-hits The Incredibles and Finding Nemo, its $101.1 million cume after nine days in release is just 4 percent behind last summer's Cars ($105.4 million after nine days), 6 percent behind Monsters, Inc. ($107.7 million after nine days) and 7 million behind Toy Story 2 ($108.3 million after nine days).

Meanwhile, Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) got a 26 percent Saturday bounce for an estimated $6.74 million and a new total of $78.8 million after 11 days of release. Also Saturday, Evan Almighty (Universal) sailed past $75 million, 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) climbed above $50 million, Knocked Up (Universal) nailed $130 million, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) plundered the very elite $300 million club.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $25.42 million [$132.8 million cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11.11 million [$101.1 million cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $6.74 million [$78.8 million cume]
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $3.84 million [$14.9 million cume]
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $3.19 million [$75.9 million cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.63 million [$51.6 million cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.98 million [$130.4 million cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.63 million [$122.5 million cume]
9. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $1.46 million [$108.1 million cume]
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $1.31 million [$10.1 million cume]
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $1.2 million [$300.8 million cume]
12. Evening (Focus) -- $942,600 [$7.6 million cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: Optimus Prime is still the box office king, but the possibility of a $70 million-plus three-day for Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) may have slipped away.

Transformers received a 17 percent bump from Thursday for an estimated Friday take, of $22.43 million, which is excellent considering that the Michael Bay-directed robot epic had already raked in an estimated $85 million from Monday night previews through yesterday's business. That puts the Transformers total domestic take at $107.3 million, and it becomes the 20th movie to top the $100 million mark in five days or less.

In our regular weekly feature called The Scorecard, an average of 8 "expert" sources predicted a 3-day take of $72.26 million for Transformers, but that now appears to be a bit high. My sources are pointing to a traditional weekend of $67.31 million, which will put the Hasbro-inspired film at $152.21 million domestic by Monday morning.

Transformers is already in the box-office record books for the all-time biggest Tuesday ($27.85 million), the third-best Wednesday in history ($29 million, trailing only Spider-Man 2 and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King) and the all-time fifth-best Thursday ($19.17 million, behind Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, The Matrix Reloaded, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones and Spider-Man 2). As an original piece of entertainment, it can't necessarily compete with the modern blockbuster sequels, but its opening three-day and four-day grosses (using Tuesday as opening day) are both in the Top 5 for non-sequels.

Best Three-day Opening for a Non-Sequel
1. Spider-Man: $114.8 million
2. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: $90.2 million
3. The Da Vinci Code: $77 million
4. Transformers: $76.1 million
5. 300: $70.8 million

Best Four-day Opening for a Non-Sequel
1. Spider-Man: $125.8 million
2. Transformers: $98.4 million
3. The Passion of the Christ: $97.3 million
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone: $96.9 million
5. The Da Vinci Code: $85.8 million

If the three-day projection of $67.31 million holds up, the Tuesday-thru-Sunday Transformers gross will be the all-time seventh-best opening six days for any film and the best for a non-sequel.

Pixar's Ratatouille million (Buena Vista) continued its strong Independence Day week performance with $9.26 on Friday, bringing its total domestic gross to $89.7 million. Remy and friends will likely deliver a three-day haul of $33.37 million. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) got a nice day-over-day bump to $5.22 million, which should translate to $17.15 million for the weekend. That would give old man John McClane a cume of $83.9 million by Monday morning. The horribly-reviewed License to Wed (Warner Bros.) added only an estimated $3.51 million on Friday, and it has a shot at approximately $9.8 million for the three-day and a six-day of $17.26 million. Evan Almighty (Universal) will likely round out the Top 5 to start the weekend with about $2.67 million. The Noah-inspired family comedy should turn in a weekend along the lines of $8.02 million

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $22.43 million [$107.3 million cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $9.26 million [$89.7 million cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $5.22 million [$71.9 million cume]
4. License To Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $3.51 million [$10.9 million cume]
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.67 million [$72.6 million cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.26 million [$48.9 million cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.61 million [$128.4 million cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.29 million [$120.9 million cume]
9. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros) -- $1.13 million [$106.7 million cume]
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $1.06 million [$8.9 million cume]
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $973,000 [$299.6 million cume]
12. Evening (Focus) -- $766,000 [$6.7 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $67.31 million [$152.21 million cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $33.37 million [$113.8 million cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17.74 million [$84.5 million cume]
4. License To Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $9.84 million [$17.2 million cume]
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8.02 million [$78 million cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $6.57 million [$53.2 million cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $5.16 million [$132 million cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.26 million [$123.9 million cume]
9. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.62 million [$109.2 million cume]
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $3.4 million [$11.2 million cume]
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $3.2 million [$301.9 million cume]
12. Evening (Focus) -- $2.22 million [$8.2 million cume]

THURSDAY NIGHT UPDATE: After Wednesday's box office fireworks, Thursday was destined to be much quieter, but it was still a relatively strong day across the board. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) followed up its $29 million Independence Day with an estimated $18.31 million, down about 37 percent. The Hasbro-inspired, Michael Bay-directed picture now has a massive three-and-a-half-day cume of $84 million. Disney/Pixar's Ratatouille dipped only 29 percent to something on the order of $7.24 million. That's an excellent hold for Remy and company, and the animated masterpiece is just shy of $80 million domestic. Old man John McClane and Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) took a steeper 44 percent drop to an estimated $3.37 million on Thursday. DH4's domestic haul is now just over $66 million.

The horribly-reviewed Robin Williams-Mandy Moore comedy License to Wed (Warner Bros.) managed only $2.13 million, and its three-day gross of $7.3 million isn't a good omen for the coming weekend. In all, seven movies grabbed $1 million or more on Thursday, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) added an estimated $644,000 and is now within $1.4 million of the magical $300 million mark.

Looking ahead to the weekend, one of my sources passed along some exit survey data for Transformers. I'm told that 90 percent of those surveyed rate the blockbuster as Excellent or Very Good. That's a staggering percentage in the top two boxes. There are a couple of other interesting wrinkles in the exit polls:

The softest quadrant in industry tracking has been, not surprisingly, Females 25 Plus. Let's face it, Transformers is a "guy movie," and adult females have demonstrated the least interest in seeing the Autobots and Decepticons go to war. On the way out of theaters however, the quadrant with the highest percentage that will Definitely Recommend the movie is Females 25 Plus. Also, the massive Monday-Thursday turnout has been mostly a traditional moviegoing audience as opposed to a family film audience. It may be that Ratatouille is the First Choice of those looking for a family movie. If that same crowd starts showing up for Transformers this weekend, the grosses could be even bigger than expected in the next few days.

One studio exec that I spoke to about Transformers this evening is looking for $26 million on Friday, $28 million on Saturday and $21 on million Sunday. That would be a $75 million three-day weekend and seven-day take of $159 million. That seems a bit high to me, but $150 million+ is a real possibility.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY THURSDAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $18.31 million, down 37 percent [$84 million cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $7.24 million, down 29 percent [$79.8 million cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $3.37 million, down 44 percent [$66.4 million cume]
4. License To Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $2.13 million, down 28 percent [$7.3 million cume]
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $1.87 million, down 34 percent [$69.7 million cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.4 million, down 13 percent [$46.5 million cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.02 million, down 23 percent  [$126.7 million cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $891,000, down 40 percent [$118.6 million cume]
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $644,800, down 22 percent  [$298.6 million cume]
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $657,800, down 41 percent [$105.4 million cume]
11. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $626,400, down 46 percent [$7.8 million cume]
12. Evening (Focus) -- $551,300, down 31 percent [$5.4 million cume]

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Wednesday was a day of box office fireworks, with a great hold for Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) and major Tuesday to Wednesday jumps for Ratatouille (Buena Vista) and Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox).

It would have been safe to assume -- after $8.8 million in its Monday night previews and another $27.5 million on opening day -- that Transformers would suffer a 4th of July dip, especially with family barbecues and fireworks displays being the order of the day. Instead, the Michael-Bay-by-way-of-Hasbro action epic got an estimated 9 percent uptick for an approximate $29.92 million Independence Day take and a two-and-a-half-day haul of $66.2 million. The great news for Hollywood didn't stop there.

Pixar's Ratatouille surged 38 percent to an estimated $10.8 million and a new six-day cume of $72.6 million. John McClane and the latest in the Die Hard franchise was up an even stronger 39 percent for a Wednesday gross of an estimated $6.2 million. Live Free or Die Hard has earned $63.5 million in its eight days in release.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $29.92 million [$66.2 million cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $10.8 million [$72.6 million cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $6.2 million [$63.5 million cume]
4. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $3.16 million [$68.1 million cume]
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros) -- $2.93 million [$5.1 million cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.66 million [$45.2 million cume]
7. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.58 million [$118.6 million cume]
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.35 million [$125.8 million cume]
9. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $1.23 million [$104.9 million cume]
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $1.17 million [$6.9 million cume]
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $908,000 [$298 million cume]
12. Evening (Focus) -- $788,500 [$5.3 million cume]

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Last night, I wrote that Dreamworks/Paramount was floating an opening day number of $27.5 million for Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount), and it now appears that the number is right on. I'm always skeptical about early reports from studios for their own movies. The tendency is for a studio to go low on its own releases. That's why I went with $30 million. (In the end, I guess I outsmarted myself.) Most of what I wrote last night stands. Transformers delivered the all-time No. 1 Tuesday gross, and it's the fifth-best opening day of 2007, trailing only Spider-Man 3, Pirates: AWE, Shrek the Third and 300.

TOP OPENING DAYS OF 2007
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony): $59.8 million
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista): $42.9 million
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount): $38.4 million
4. 300 (Warner Bros.): $28.1 million
5. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount): $27.5 million
6. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox): $21.9 million
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista): $16.4 million
8. Ghost Rider (Sony): $15.4 million
9. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.): $13.1 million
10. Evan Almighty (Universal): $11.4 million

The Michael-Bay-by-way-of-Hasbro picture has also banked an estimated $36.5 million in its first 28 hours in release. The rest of the numbers that I reported for the Top 12 films last night are right on. Scroll down for the Tuesday estimates along with analysis of industry tracking that explains why Transformers is huge and License to Wed is a box office disaster.

TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Optimus Prime is the unquestioned king of the Independence Day week box office. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) has delivered a massive opening day gross in the $28 million-$31 million range. One of my sources is calling the number $29.5 million, and I'm told that Paramount is floating a number of $27.5 million. Studios notoriously come in low on a picture's opening night, so I'm going to use $30 million as my number. Regardless, it's the all-time best Tuesday performance, easily surpassing the $15.7 million record set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last July. Also, the Transformers opening day will likely become the fourth-best opening day of 2007, trailing only Spider-Man 3, Pirates: AWE and Shrek the Third.

Add the Tuesday number to the $8 million-$9 million Monday night preview performance, and this Michael Bay-directed action thrill ride has banked something approaching $40 million in just its first 28 hours in release. In discussing this movie with my usual cadre of studio execs, the seven-day, Monday-Sunday target looks like $140 million-$145 million with $150 million still possible, which would be an incredible number. (Scroll down for lots of great analysis on Transformers including analysis of tracking prior to release.)

Ratatouille (Buena Vista) is holding up extraordinarily well. The Disney/Pixar animated masterpiece scored another $7.85 million Tuesday. That's up slightly from its Monday performance and will push the movie past the $60 million domestic threshold. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) was also up a tick as old man John McClane still came through with a strong $4.6 million. Universal's Evan Almighty added $2.11 million on Tuesday for fourth place, bringing its cume to nearly $65 million.

The other new release for the holiday is License to Wed (Warner Bros.), and it's off to an abysmal start. The Robin Williams-Mandy Moore comedy only sold an estimated $2.05 million in tickets on its opening day, and License looks like it has finished fifth on its opening day. Scroll past my Early Tuesday Estimates for analysis of tracking numbers for License to Wed. You'll see that this box office disaster was completely predictable.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY TUESDAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $30 million [$39 million cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $7.85 million [$62.4 million cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $4.6 million [$57.3 million cume]
4. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.11 million [$64.9 million cume]
5. License To Wed (Warner Bros) -- $2.05 million [$2.05 million cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.48 million [$43.4 million cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.13 million [$124.4 million cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.07 million [$117.1 million cume]
9. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $834,000 [$103.7 million cume]
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $744,000 [$6 million cume]
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $683,000 [$297.1 million cume]
12. Evening (Focus) -- $557,500 [$4.6 million cume]

Nobody wants this License: On the weekend that Spider-Man 3 (Sony) opened, Warner Bros. sent one of its lambs to slaughter in the name of "counter-programming." Lucky You, from Academy Award winning Curtis Hanson and starring Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore and Robert Duvall, opened on over 2,500 screens and generated a miserable $2.7 million. To date, the poker yarn has banked only $5.75 million domestic. In fairness to Warner Bros., Lucky You was a troubled project and probably fatally-flawed regardless of its release date.

License to Wed is the studio's counter-programming against Transformers, and they actually have some promotional muscle behind it. Still License has quickly turned into a disaster of Lucky You proportions. Critics hate this movie, which star Robin Williams, Mandy Moore and John Krasinski from NBC’s The Office. At last check, License to Wed  was rated just 10 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes, and reviews range from awful to cruel.

"Comedies don't get much lamer than License to Wed. Working from a flawed premise with characters lacking credibility and plot turns more moronic than funny, the movie flatlines in about 5 minutes." -- Kirk Honeycutt, Hollywood Reporter

"It makes marriage look like the biggest mistake of all time, and the multiplex a prison from which there is no escape." -- Brian Orndorf, EfilmCritic.com

"[Robin] Williams has become a comedic glass ceiling, a black hole of laughs that guarantees every scene he's in will make nails on a chalkboard sound appealing." -- Matt Pais, MetroMix.com

To look at License to Wed's tracking, an easy comparable is Because I Said So, the Universal romantic comedy from February. Both films star Mandy Moore, both are rated PG-13, and they both feature a fifty-something co-star with multi-generational appeal (Diane Keaton in Because I Said So).

The Awareness numbers for License to Wed are better than those for Because I Said So: 76 percent of those surveyed know about the Mandy Moore-Robin Williams comedy versus just 54 percent who had heard of the Mandy Moore-Diane Keaton film. But, Said So had a better Definite Interest score by a 29 percent-28 percent count. That means that only 36 percent of people aware of License have interest in seeing it compared to a 53 percent conversion for Sony's February release.

The reason License to Wed is a non-starter is that people aren't interested in seeing it once they know about it. The 76 percent Aware means that the Warner Bros. marketing department has done its job. The premise and cast make it impossible to sell. Whoever green-lit this drivel "has some 'splainin to do."

TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) delivered an impressive $9 million or so (the studio will report a number a tick lower) in estimated Monday night business. Already matinee business is reported as massive. There are anecdotal reports of sold-out shows, cheering, applause and a party-like atmosphere. My sources tell me that the Michael Bay-directed, Hasbro-inspired action movie will have broken the all-time Tuesday box office record by about 7 p.m. (Eastern) eclipsing the mark of  $15.7 million set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last July. There is little question now that Transformers will grab $30 million-plus on its opening day.

As I reported Monday night, it was very difficult to figure out how Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) was performing in its Monday night previews. Nobody wanted to put a hard number out there as of 10:15 p.m. (Pacific). In my tracking column posted early Monday (scroll down), I suggested that the Michael Bay-directed action movie had a shot at matching or beating the $14 million Thursday night preview performance of Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) in May, but that was an overly-optimistic assessment.

In a confounding move, Dreamworks/Paramount did not promote the Monday night screenings in its television or outdoor campaigns. Originally, all of the Transformers ads were pushing "7-4-7" (July 4th) as opening day, and, more recently, July 3 has been the opening date advertised. The upside of that marketing decision is that Tuesday is now very, very big.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TRACKING UPDATE: On the Reelz Channel Summer Movie Preview special that aired Memorial Day weekend, I was asked to predict the top three grossing movies of the summer. At that point of the summer, Spider-Man 3 (Sony) and Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) were both open and on their way $300 million-plus, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) was just about to open.

I went against the grain, at least according to most "experts," by forecasting Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) in the top three instead of Pirates: AWE (Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third were the other titles in my big three). Some on the set, including Dailies host Mike Richards and the terrifically appealing Christy Lemire, lead film critic for the Associated Press and a fellow panelist, were surprised that I opted for the Michael Bay-directed action film over Johnny Depp's Captain Jack, but I was a Transformers believer from the start. Now that Optimus Prime gets ready to make his coast-to-coast debut tonight (Monday, July 2). I'm sure that my Memorial Day prediction was right.

First off, I've seen Transformers, and it's fantastic. As summer blockbusters go, it's my favorite for this summer. It also has the advantage of being an original movie instead of a sequel. Moviegoers are "sequeled out." This movie immediately feels fresher than SM3, SK3, Pirates, Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.), Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) and the rest. I'm not the only fan of the movie. It has a 76 percent Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 65 at MetaCritic.com.

Let's compare this Michael-Bay-by-way-of-Hasbro epic to Spider-Man 3, Pirates: AWE and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Keep in mind that Transformers is not a sequel, so it doesn't have the built-in buzz and awareness and interest that Spidey, Sparrow and Surfer benefited from in their week-of industry tracking.

Transformers has an Un-Aided Awareness (an excellent measure of buzz and anticipation) of 26 percent, which is extraordinary for a non-sequel. That's well ahead of FF2 (15 percent), but far behind the Spidey and Pirates sequels (41 percent and 49 percent, respectively). Total Awareness for Transformers is at 94 percent overall, and 96 percent in its "money demo" of Males Under 25. Fantastic Four went off at 92 percent Total Aware, SM3 at 98 percent and Pirates: AWE at 99 percent. Basically, there weren't many people who hadn't heard of these movies by opening day, and that includes Transformers.

In terms of Definite Interest and First Choice, Transformers is stronger than FF2, and trails the two mega-sequels -- but its numbers are tremendous for a non-sequel:

Definite Interest
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: 75 percent
Males Under 25, 78 percent; Males 25 Plus, 72 percent
Females Under 25, 79 percent; Females 25 Plus, 71 percent

Spider-Man 3: 71 percent
Males Under 25, 78 percent; Males 25 Plus, 77 percent
Females Under 25, 70 percent; Females 25 Plus, 60 percent

Transformers: 46 percent
Males Under 25, 58 percent; Males 25 Plus, 52 percent
Females Under 25, 36 percent; Females 25 Plus, 38 percent

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: 42 percent
Males Under 25, 50 percent; Males 25 Plus, 45 percent
Females Under 25, 39 percent; Females 25 Plus, 32 percent

First Choice
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: 60 percent
Males Under 25, 63 percent; Males 25 Plus, 60 percent
Females Under 25, 63 percent; Females 25 Plus, 53 percent

Spider-Man 3: 54 percent
Males Under 25, 65 percent; Males 25 Plus, 62 percent
Females Under 25, 48 percent; Females 25 Plus, 42 percent

Transformers: 23 percent
Males Under 25, 33 percent; Males 25 Plus, 28 percent
Females Under 25, 16 percent; Females 25 Plus, 13 percent

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: 21 percent
Males Under 25, 32 percent; Males 25 Plus, 27 percent
Females Under 25, 12 percent; Females 25 Plus, 14 percent

If there's any concern about the tracking for Transformers, it's that it looks a bit soft with women. One aspect of these numbers to take into account is the number of unsampled kids out there who have been waiting for this movie. It's not a pure family film, so doubling the First Choice number isn't correct -- but raising it by 50 percent to a First Choice of 35 percent is probably about right. My sources tell me that Transformers has popped big in more detailed tracking that gauges the interest of parents who plan to bring one or more kids to the movie. That's a very good sign.

So where does that put Transformers tonight (Monday, July 2) and over the next 7 days? With previews starting at 8 p.m., I anticipate that Optimus Prime and friends have a shot at $14 million. That's what Pirates: AWE scored with its Thursday-starting-at-8-p.m. previews. (I believe that $14 million is a conservative number, given that Transformers is considerably shorter than Pirates). The rest of the week will be very interesting. Wednesday is the 4th of July and, in addition to no school for the kids, lots of people are taking Tuesday, Thursday and Friday off. Just for fun, here's a way that Transformers will possibly pencil out over the next week.

It will break the all-time Tuesday record of $15.7 million set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last summer. The Monday previews will take some of the "juice" out of Tuesday, but it will still likely grab something over $30 million. Wednesday will drop (because of the holiday) to something in the $21 million range. Thursday will be its softest day, at $15 million or so. Friday could hit $25 million, followed by $28 million on Saturday and $19 million on Sunday. That's $152 million.

Paramount/Dreamworks says that it's not trying to set any records, but $152 million would be of significance. That would make it the all-time biggest opening seven days for any non-sequel, just ahead of 2002's Spider-Man. Here are the top "first seven days" performances in modern film history.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Buena Vista): $196 million
2. Spider-Man 2 (Sony): $192 million
3. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (20th Century Fox): $191.3 million
4. Spider-Man 3 (Sony): $182 million
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista): $160 million
6. The Matrix Reloaded (Warner Bros.) $153.2 million
7. Spider-Man (Sony): $151.6 million
8. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (New Line): $150.1 million
9. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount): $149.4 million
10. Shrek 2 (Dreamworks): $148.5 million

I'll have updates on Transformers box office starting tonight along with another weekly tracking column that covers the far-less-anticipated License to Wed (Warner Bros.) tomorrow.