No. 1 'Superbad' adds $5.67M Friday and targets $18.15M for the weekend; 'Bourne' and "Rush Hour 3' to finish 2-3; 'Bean' No. 4 w/$10M; 'War' No. 5 w/$9.7M; 'Nanny' and 'Champ' disappoint
by Steve Mason
The raunchy Judd Apatow-produced teen comedy Superbad (Sony) will, as expected, hold off flock of "lame duck" new releases for a second consecutive weekend win. Written by Knocked Up star Seth Rogen and directed by Greg Mottola (The Daytrippers), Superbad added another $5.67 million on Friday, bringing its eight-day cume to $56.2 million. I'm targeting an $18.15 million three-day, which would be an estimated 45 percent weekend drop.
The rest of the Top 5 is a photo finish both for the day and the weekend, but I'm giving The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) the Friday edge with $3.51 million over the Lionsgate action pic War million with $3.5, Rush Hour 3 (New Line) with $3.45 million and Universal's Mr. Bean's Holiday with a better-than-expected $3.22 million.
Currently, I'm calling for Bourne and Rush Hour 3 to finish No. 2 and No. 3 for the weekend, with $12.11 million and $11.3 million, respectively. Rowan Atkinson's Bean will likely finish fourth with $10 million, and the Jason Statham-Jet Li flick will finish with a softer $9.7 million. (This is a jumbled field, and there's probably a higher margin of error in these three-day numbers than usual.)
As for the other new wide releases, The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) will miss the Top 5 altogether. The Scarlett Johansson vehicle managed only $2.65 million on Friday, and it's headed for about $7.73 million by Monday morning. The well-reviewed Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) opened in disappointing fashion with just $540,000 on opening day and $1.6 million or so for the weekend. That's a three-day PTA of just under $1,000.
Universal's Illegal Tender is on a more limited 512 screens, and it grabbed an estimated $490,000 on Friday, which will translate to a possible $1.37 million weekend. That would be a solid $2,600-plus PTA. Finally, the misguided September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing), a dark western about a brutal massacre in the mid-19th century starring Jon Voight, sold just under $200,000 in tickets on Friday, and it will struggle to a tick better than $500,000 for its opening three-day.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $5.67 million [$56.2 million cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $3.51 million [$176.2 million cume]
3. War (Lionsgate) — $3.5 million [$3.5 million cume]
4. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $3.45 million [$100.2 million cume]
5. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.22 million [$3.22 million cume]
6. The Nanny Diaries (Universal) — $2.65 million [$2.65 million cume]
7. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $1.28 million [$170.3 million cume]
8. Stardust (Paramount) — $1.1M [$23.6 million cume]
9. Hairspray (New Line) — $948,000 [$104.9 million cume]
10. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $934,000 [$9.3 million cume]
11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $600,000 [$279.3 million cume]
12. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $590,000 [$34.9 million cume]
13. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $585,000 [$111 million cume]
14. Becoming Jane (Miramax) — $545,000 [$9.6 million cume]
15. Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) — $540,000 [$540,000 cume]
16. Illegal Tender (Universal) — $490,000 [$490,000 cume]
17. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) — $370,000 [$36.8 million cume]
18. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $303,000 [$306.7 million cume]
19. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $271,000 [$2.1 million cume]
20. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $225,000 [$2.9 million cume]
21. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) — $266,500 [$198.1 million cume]
22. September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing) — $190,000 [$190,000 cume]
23. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) — $160,000 [$10.6 million cume]
24. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $152,000 [$614,000 cume]
25. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $144,000 [$2.9 million cume]
26. Evan Almighty (Universal) — $90,000 [$98.7 million cume]
27. Knocked Up (Universal) — $75,000 [$147.5 million cume]
28. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) — $72,500 [$132.9 million cume]
29. El Cantante (Picturehouse) — $61,000 [$6.9 million cume]
30. Once (Fox Searchlight) — $55,000 [$7.4 million cume]
31. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) — $47,500 [$116.8 million cume]
32. No End in Sight (Magnolia) — $47,000 [$508,000 cume]
33. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) — $45,000 [$131.2 million cume]
34. Bratz (Lionsgate) — $30,000 [$9.2 million cume]
35. Sicko (Lionsgate/MGM) — $29,500 [$23.7 million cume]
36. Hot Rod (Paramount) — $29,000 [$13.4 million cume]
37. Rocket Science (Picturehouse) — $26,700 [$292,000 cume]
38. 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $20,600 [$101,000 cume]
39. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $20,500 [$100,500 cume]
40. Rescue Dawn (MGM) — $17,100 [$5.2 million cume]
41. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) — $15,600 [$532,000 cume]
42. Eye of the Dolphin (Monterrey Media) — $13,500 [$13,500 cume]
43. Right at your Door (IDP Films) — $9,880 [$9,880 cume]
44. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $7,436 [$7,436 cume]
45. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $5,374 [$5,374 cume]
46. Closing Escrow (Magnolia) — $2,640 [$2,640 cume]
47. The Hottest State (Thinkfilm) — $2,382 [$2,382 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $2,687 PTA
2. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $2,026 PTA
3. Superbad (Sony) — $1,925 PTA
4. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $1,879 PTA
5. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $1,859 PTA
6. War (Lionsgate) — $1,537 PTA
7. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $1,466 PTA
8. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $1,042 PTA
9. 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $1,034 PTA
10. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $1,015 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $18.15 million [$68.7 million cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $12.11 million [$184.8 million cume]
3. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $11.3 million [$108 million cume]
4. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $10 million [$10 million cume]
5. War (Lionsgate) — $9.7 million [$9.7 million cume]
6. The Nanny Diaries (Universal) — $7.73 million [$7.73 million cume]
7. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $4.57 million [$173.6 million cume]
8. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.91M [$26.4 million cume]
9. Hairspray (New Line) — $3.55 million [$107.5 million cume]
10. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $2.89 [$11.2 million cume]
11. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $2.18 million [$36.5 million cume]
12. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $2.05 million [$280.8 million cume]
13. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $1.94 million [$112.4 million cume]
14. Becoming Jane (Miramax) — $1.78 million [$10.8 million cume]
15. Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) — $1.6 million [$1.6 million cume]
16. Illegal Tender (Universal) — $1.37 million [$1.37 million cume]
17. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) — $1.25 million [$37.7 million cume]
18. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.05 million [$307.5 million cume]
19. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $1 million [$2.8 million cume]
20. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) — $972,000 [$198.8 million cume]
21. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) — $603,500 [$11 million cume]
22. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $577,500 [$614,000 cume]
23. September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing) — $513,000 [$513,000 cume]
24. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $498,000 [$3.2 million cume]
25. Evan Almighty (Universal) — $350,000 [$98.9 million cume]
26. Knocked Up (Universal) — $245,000 [$147.7 million cume]
27. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) — $237,000 [$133 million cume]
28. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $225,000 [$2.9 million cume]
29. El Cantante (Picturehouse) — $210,000 [$7.6 million cume]
30. Once (Fox Searchlight) — $209,000 [$7.6 million cume]
31. No End in Sight (Magnolia) — $176,000 [$637,000 cume]
32. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) — $158,000 [$131.3 million cume]
33. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) — $150,800 [$116.9 million cume]
34. Bratz (Lionsgate) — $115,600 [$9.2 million cume]
35. Sicko (Lionsgate/MGM) — $110,500 [$23.8 million cume]
36. Rocket Science (Picturehouse) — $100,400 [$366,000 cume]
37. Hot Rod (Paramount) — $84,000 [$13.5 million cume]
38. 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $67,200 [$148,000 cume]
39. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $65,200 [$145,200 cume]
40. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) — $70,000 [$586,000 cume]
41. Rescue Dawn (MGM) — $60,000 [$5.2 million cume]
42. Eye of the Dolphin (Monterrey Media) — $33,800 [$33,800 cume]
43. Right at your Door (IDP Films) — $28,600 [$28,600 cume]
44. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $23,000 [$23,000 cume]
45. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $18,800 [$18,800 cume]
46. Closing Escrow (Magnolia) — $7,524 [$7,524 cume]
47. The Hottest State (Thinkfilm) — $6,789 [$6,789 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $9,405 PTA
2. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $7,701 PTA
3. Superbad (Sony) — $6,160 PTA
4. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $5,763 PTA
5. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $5,636 PTA
6. War (Lionsgate) — $4,796PTA
7. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $4,661 PTA
8. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $3,855 PTA
9. 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $3,361 PTA
10. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $3,318 PTA
Any projections on how Superbad will fare PTA-wise?
Posted by: Wes | August 25, 2007 at 03:21 AM
Hi Wes,
I just updated PTA estimates for Friday and the 3-day. Things got better for SUPERBAD from last night.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | August 25, 2007 at 03:06 PM
Isn't it kind of cute that if Scarlett and Josh Hartnett bomb a movie, they bomb together with "Nanny Diaries" and "Resurrecting the Champ"?
Don't feel sorry for Hartnett though, he's got a hit coming "30 Days of Night".
Posted by: friskytiger81 | August 25, 2007 at 06:28 PM
I wouldn't hold my breath on "30 Days of Night." The track record for horror movies this year is not too promising.
But it's too bad "Champ" couldn't find an audience. It looked like a really good movie.
Posted by: Ian | August 26, 2007 at 05:55 AM
well, the track record for crappy, torture porn horror isn't great, but smart movies like Mr. Brooks and 1408 have fared pretty well, wouldn't you say?? So it all depends on how sensible and (not) gruesome the movie is.
Posted by: ashish | August 26, 2007 at 10:54 AM