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August 22, 2007

BARD'S EYE VIEW: Six-Shooters or Semi-Automatics and Other Perplexing Issues

by Shrykespeare

Hello, hello, and welcome to the latest chapter of Bard's Eye View, the place to come for the cinematic equivalent of hot stock tips. I, your humble broker, will outline for you possible bull and bear markets, help you avoid catastrophic investments, and attempt to make sense out of this thing that we call "box office augury." Whether you are a full-time investor looking to expand your portfolio, or a part-time day trader hoping to make a quick profit, I bid you welcome. Like most stocks, predicting box office numbers can be a bit of a crap shoot, but if it's not your thing, I hear pork bellies are on the up. ("Shut up, Winthorp.") (Wink.)

Both I and Fantasy Moguls's brand new columnist (who will be calling himself "Indie Jones") will be kicking off the month of September by splitting the opening slate down the middle: he will be taking four limited-release pics scheduled to come out the weekend of Sept. 7, whereas I will return to my previous bailiwick, the wide-release films. This week's docket includes 3:10 to Yuma, Shoot 'Em Up, The Brothers Solomon and Hatchet. And .... we're off!

Here's a question: Between 3:10 to Yuma and Shoot 'Em Up, which one is going to take the No. 1 spot in this particular weekend's box office? Both are "dramas," both involve an inordinate amount of gunplay, and both have two extremely bankable male stars in the roles of hero and villain ... but apart from their similar price tags in August-October Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, that is pretty much where the similarities end.

Every few years or so, it seems that Hollywood makes an attempt to revive the Western genre. In the past, Westerns have always been a staple for gunplay and violence, as well as a fair amount of action. In today's highly computerized age, however, when it takes far, far more than a horse chase through picturesque canyons and arroyos to draw moviegoers' interest, the general consensus seems to be that if you are going to set a film in the Old West, you'd better have a whole lot of story to back it up. 3:10 to Yuma seems perched to make that claim.

Dialing the clock about seven decades further back than his last period film (the award-engulfing critic's dream Walk the Line), director James Mangold has never been one to take the short road, and his patience borders on legendary. Just like the aforementioned Johnny Cash biopic, which was over a decade in the works before it came to blissful fruition, 3:10 to Yuma was stuck on a shelf for a long, long time, and for a while, the outlook seemed bleak that it would ever get made. Originally slated to star Tom Cruise (just ... can't picture it, sorry), Sony Entertainment bagged on the script once T.C. backed out. That was then, however, and now that Mangold has an Oscar-winning film (how he was passed over for a Best Director nod is beyond me) and a truckload of kudos under his belt, we are finally being treated to his next outing.

The story follows a murdering brigand (Russell Crowe) who gets apprehended, and awaits transport by train to Yuma (on the 3:10, duh), where he will face trial and, most likely, execution. The habitually stoic Christian Bale plays a rancher who volunteers to guard him until the train arrives. Even though there is as much gunplay as you might expect, this film seems to be more about the battle of wills that ensues between Crowe and Bale. And if you think having a little gold statuette isn't even on Mangold's mind, consider: This is the very first week of fall, the season for more "serious" movies, and getting the jump on the upcoming The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and No Country for Old Men is of paramount importance; and come January, when this film will be winding its way out of theaters, a DVD release with an accompanying Oscar campaign is sure to rear its head.

The last few years have not been the rosiest ever for Russell Crowe. Apart from that whole "phone-throwing" incident, his three most recent outings (Master and Commander, Cinderella Man and A Good Year) have been box-office underperformers. However, his exceptional turns in Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind and The Insider still more than make him a worthy leading man, and between Yuma and the upcoming American Gangster, I'd be surprised if Crowe didn't bag himself another nomination for Best Actor. Granted, the last time Crowe appeared in a Western, it was in the enjoyable-but-kitschy The Quick and the Dead, but the pairing of Crowe and Mangold (not to mention that Batman guy) should be setting critics' water-cooler-talk abuzz.

But will it play well in theaters? As I said, it takes a special kind of Western these days to draw a huge crowd, critical praise notwithstanding. Having this director and these two leading actors will help it a lot more than it will hurt it, but will even that be enough? Well, it picked the right month, that's for sure. I sincerely doubt that there will be even one single blockbuster coming out of September, so if you are looking for something that will get you above-average User Ratings, a few Top 5 points, and a fair amount of cash, this is it. It will run you an inexplicable $2 in August-October Box Office Moguls leagues, which makes this one of the best bargains in the entire game. If you don't have it, get it. There's no way it will hurt you. In Ultimate, however, it will run you $14, so I'll leave it to you to decide if it's worth spending that much for maybe one or two PTA points, and no more than eight Top 5 points.

Because you could very well get the same results for only $12 by choosing Shoot 'Em Up, an adrenaline-packed action flick that offers many more "quick fixes" than Yuma does. Whereas Yuma has substance, this film is pretty much 100 percent unadulterated style. Oh, sure, it's not the most imaginative title for a film ever, but at least those buying a ticket know exactly what they're getting. If it moos, it's gotta be a cow, right?

And what are they getting? Well, I'd venture that they're getting an hour and 45 minutes of Clive Owen jumping off of things onto other things, sliding on his belly, flying through the air and firing enough ammo to take out the entire Serbian army. Yes, folks, check your brains at the door, and strap yourselves in for a thrill ride that defies logic, sense and physics. If the fix you crave is sex and violence, prepare to get stoned out of your gourd.

Every decade has THAT hero ... you know, the quiet type who dominates the screen with a bare minimum of words? For my money, Clive Owen is that guy for this decade. The man exudes charisma and toughness on the level of Steve McQueen. (He's also quite a good actor, not that we'll get to see it showcased here.) Playing opposite Italian bombshell Monica Bellucci (Persephone from the last two Matrix movies), who plays a damsel in distress trying to escape with a newborn baby from an army of gunmen, led by Mr. Hertz (the always-badass Paul Giamatti), Owen is just the sort of actor that can entice moviegoers of both genders.

This is by far the biggest project in the career of director Michael Davis, who (to quote one reviewer) "despite referencing bits from movies as diverse as Lost Highway, The Transporter or even Raising Arizona, manages to come across as original." He throws caution to the wind in order to give us nearly two hours of balls-out preposterousness, which I, for one, cannot wait to see.

It's difficult to say which of these two different-yet-similar films will end up with the larger take come the following Monday, but depending on what kind of league you're in, it's really not that hard a decision. The $14 Shoot will set you back pales in comparison to the bargain-basement price of $2 assigned to Yuma in Box Office, but in Ultimate, where Shoot is actually the (slightly) bigger bargain ($12 to Yuma's $14), you may want to go with the film with broader appeal. Yuma will almost certainly get better User Ratings, but only time will tell which film has better legs. Or, hell with it, just pick 'em both.

Bob Odenkirk is probably one of the more famous comedy writers of the last 10 years; his numerous credits include acting, writing, producing and directing, from turns on Saturday Night Live to The Larry Sanders Show and Mr. Show with Bob and David. Lowbrow comedies seem to be his forte, as evidenced by his first wide-release project, Let's Go To Prison, which met with lukewarm reviews and sparse crowds this past winter. Now he's back with The Brothers Solomon, which centers around two brothers, home-schooled since birth, who must pull out all the stops to provide their dying father with a grandchild.

Of course, being as sheltered as they are, they know about as much about social interaction with the opposite sex as (to quote Douglas Adams) a tea leaf knows about the history of the East India Company. Will Forte (Beerfest) and Will Arnett (Blades of Glory) play the parts of John and Dean Solomon, who wear their ineptitude on their sleeves as they haplessly attempt to find a woman to "put a baby in." Supporting players include Prison's Chi McBride, The Office's Jenna Fischer, and SNL's Kristin Wiig.

I'll be the first to admit that this film does have some promise, but not nearly enough for me to recommend it. There's a reason that lowbrow comedies are a staple in September ... simply put, they don't have enough juice to compete in the summer or winter. Many, many lowbrow comedies succeed despite lousy reviews (witness the still-unfathomable success of Wild Hogs), but unless you have a star with a proven track record for hits (as with I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry), a hot-as-a-firecracker director (as with Knocked Up), or even a premise that skews so far from the norm that it comes across as fresh (as with Balls of Fury), it's awfully tough to compete. Hot Rod tanked, and with Mr. Woodcock, Good Luck Chuck, The Game Plan and The Heartbreak Kid coming successively over the next four weeks, look for The Brothers Solomon to shuffle quickly and quietly to DVD.

Two Top 5, no PTA, low User Ratings and $18 million in box office are all that's predicted, and that is pretty much spot-on with what I think as well. Whether you're spending $10 (in Box Office) or $5 (in Ultimate), it's just not worth it, as it will do nothing to give you a leg up on your competition. Now, if they drop the price to $2 in the soon-to-be-forming September-November leagues, it might be worth a look; otherwise, I'd say the outlook for Brothers is pretty, uh, grim. (Sheepish grin.)

Freddy and Jason. Jason and Freddy. Names you know, and names you love, and if they aren't still the single biggest icons in "slasher"/horror history, then I don't know who is. Spawning sequel after pointless sequel, they left behind them a bloody swath of mutilated and dismembered victims, before finally meeting their respective ends at the hands of their most formidable enemies ... no, not each other (although Freddy vs. Jason was wickedly cool in places) ... I'm talking about a viewing public that just couldn't take any more. Still, there's no denying the niche those two have (literally) carved for themselves in movie history.

Why all this introspection, you ask? Well, how apropos is it that the actors who made those roles famous (namely, Kane Hodder and Robert Englund) both appear in what is being heralded as the next great "old school" slasher flick? I am referring, of course, to Hatchet, which is being given a semi-wide release on Sept. 7. Obviously, the newly created character of Victor Crowley, a swamp-dwelling monster who preys on hapless tourists, coeds and fishermen, would not exist had archetypes like Freddy and Jason not paved the way. So this film, helmed by fledgling director Adam Green, is indeed an homage to those classics, even going so far as to feature their principal stars in his cast.

If you watch the trailer, you'll see that more time is spent citing references to glowing reviews given to this film, as well as the many, many film festivals that have showcased it, than to actual footage of the movie ... and why not? Horror films are rarely given across-the-board praise like this, so why not set yourself apart from the crowd during what might ostensibly be called the worst year in horror history? Currently carrying a User Rating slightly above 7 (which is pretty darn good for a slasher flick), this film will only run you $3 in Ultimate ... but can you really see this movie being a major, or even a minor, threat in Top 5, PTA or Box Office? Me neither. This movie may end up being a lot of people's guilty pleasure, but if you're a Mogul, it's just another face in the crowd.

Props Department: Congratulations to Moguls member bernox for correctly guessing that it was indeed The Police's "Synchronicity II" that I cited in my column a couple of weeks back. (It was the "many miles away" line.) As promised, sir, you are cordially invited to our next "Regulars" Ultimate league (heh, heh, fresh meat) ... all I need for you to do is send me your e-mail address so I can tell you the League Name and Password.

So that's it for this week. Please return next Wednesday, when I will be giving you the D.L. on three exceedingly different films slated for release on Sept. 14: Jodie Foster channeling her inner Charles Bronson (or is it Kevin Bacon?) in The Brave One; Tommy Lee Jones returning to form in politically-charged military drama In the Valley of Elah; and Billy Bob Thornton slips back into Bad (as in Santa/News Bears) mode as the foul-tempered P.E. coach from hell in Mr. Woodcock.

TTFN!

Shrkyespeare's brain is so big it takes up the entire coat closet when he checks it at the door. It's so big Chuck Norris couldn't lift it. Send him your deepest thoughts at shrykespeare@gmail.com.

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Posted at 07:27 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

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Comments

Tye Copeland

I want you to make a firm prediction. Will 3:10 to Yuma or Shoot Em Up make more on opening weekend and will either of them win the weekend?

Posted by: Tye Copeland | August 22, 2007 at 09:16 PM

Shrykespeare

I think Shoot 'Em Up will win the weekend, with 3:10 to Yuma coming in at #2.

Posted by: Shrykespeare | August 22, 2007 at 09:27 PM

Stev

I never thought that 3:10 To Yuma had a chance of beating Shoot 'Em Up despite bigger star power. It's not only the fact that its a Western but that its been in production forever coupled with being released in August..and..the ads have done nothing for me thus far..it looks like a throwback to westerns, which is great..but why would anyone want to see that now?

Posted by: Stev | August 24, 2007 at 11:39 AM

Shrykespeare

Stev... first of all, it's not being releasd in August, it's being released in September. Secondly, if you don't like Westerns, you don't like Westerns, so be it. And thirdly, "why would anyone want to see that now?"

For lots of reasons: 1) It wasn't that long ago that Westerns were plentiful... in fact, it was the most popular genre there was. 2) Westerns are still favorites of older moviegoers, who fondly remember the classic of John Wayne and Clint Eastwood, among others. 3) It's proof that you don't need fast cars, martial arts or automatic weapons to make a good (or even a great) action film. 4) Russell Crowe at his baddest, plus Christian Bale.

That's why.

Posted by: Shrykespeare | August 24, 2007 at 02:12 PM

aaron

I'd say 3:10 to yuma gets #1 spot with 14.8 million, I just can't see shoot 'em up being number 1, but it'll be number to with 12.3 million

Posted by: aaron | August 26, 2007 at 09:21 AM

aaron

I think the semtember 7 weekend has all of us waiting to see whats number one, of course we all know august 31st halloween will be number 1, no contest

Posted by: aaron | August 26, 2007 at 09:23 AM

abhaya

I, complete unknown that I am around these here parts, have to disagree with you. I predict that Shoot Em Up will come in at #1, yes, but that Yuma will make #3 or 4, tops. I just don't think it's what the American populace wants right now. In fact, I kind of predict that Solomon is going to surprise a lot of people.

Posted by: abhaya | September 07, 2007 at 11:29 AM

abhaya

(and yes, I'm a bit late to the post, but still in time for the party! :))

Posted by: abhaya | September 07, 2007 at 11:30 AM

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