The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) continued to struggle in its second weekend, adding just $9.6 million on Saturday. My Friday night target of $25 million for the weekend looks about right. Underdog (Buena Vista) only increased 2 percent Friday-to-Saturday, and the Disney family film now looks like it will have banked an estimated $11.1 million by Monday morning. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal), Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) and Hairspray (New Line) have finished 4-5-6 for Saturday, and that is also the order of finish for the weekend.

Paramount's poorly-reviewed Hot Rod dipped 11 percent on Saturday for an approximate $1.73 million. That should translate to a ninth-place weekend finish with $5 million. Bratz from Lionsgate was down 14 percent from Friday, with just $1.48 million on its second day of release. Bratz will be No. 11 for the weekend, with a dismal $4.2 million. Meanwhile, El Cantante (Picturehouse), the Jennifer Lopez-produced biopic about salsa king Hector Lavoe, delivered another $1.1 million on Saturday on just 546 screens. Its weekend take will be an estimated $2.87 million, which may warrant an expansion in coming weeks.

Here are my Exclusive Fantasy Moguls Early Saturday Estimates followed by my Exclusive Fantasy Moguls Revised 3-Day Estimates:

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $25.97 million [$50.4 million cume]
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $9.64 million  [$120.6 million cume]
3. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $4.18 million  [$8.2 million cume]
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $4.01 million  [$88.4 million cume]
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $3.79 million  [$257.9 million cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) -- $3.51 million [$76.1 million cume]
7. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $2.56 million  [$22.2 million cume]
8. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2.37 million [$294.3 million cume]
9. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $1.73 million  [$3.6 million cume]
10. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $1.57 million [$187 million cume]
11. Bratz -- $1.48 million  [$3.2 million cume]
12. El Cantante -- $1.1 million [$2.1 million cume]
13. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $870,000 [$129.5 million cume]
14. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $418,000 [$5.8 million cume]
15. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $384,000 [$4.3M cume]
16. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $375,000 [$693,000 cume]
17. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $274,500 [$2.6 million cume]
18. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $223,500 [$4 million cume]
19. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $188,300 [$22.4 million cume]
20. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $183,000 [$2.5 million cume]
21. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $163,800 [$320.5 million cume]
22. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $116,375 [$6.4 million cume]
23. Knocked Up (Universa) -- $129,000 [$146 million cume]
24. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $105,300 [$130.1 million cume]
25. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $100,500 [$8.5 million cume]
26. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $97,300 [$25.1 million cume]
27. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $71,000 [$97.1 million cume]
28. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $57,200 [$70.5 million cume]
29. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $57,000 [$567,000 cume]
30. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $48,250 [$42.5 million cume]
31. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $47,300 [$115.8 million cume]
32. The Ten (Thinkfilm) -- $46,000 [$84,600 cume]
33. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $33,500 [$18.5 million cume]
34. Cash (AdLabs) -- $24,200 [$40,000 cume]
35. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) -- $23,650 [$84,200 cume]
36. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $19,000 [$28.4 million cume]
37. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $16,000 [$80.1 million cume]
38. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) -- $12,600 [$9.1 million cume]
39. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- $5,900 [$350,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $72 million [$72 million cume]
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $25 million  [$127.9 million cume]
3. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $11.1 million  [$11.1 million cume]
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $10.4 million  [$91.5 million cume]
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $9.45 million  [$260.9 million cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) -- $9.15 million [$78.7 million cume]
7. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $6.5 million  [$24 million cume]
8. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $6.1 million  [$296.4 million cume]
9. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $5 million  [$5 million cume]
10. Bratz -- $4.2 million  [$4.2 million cume]
11. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $4 million [$188.3 million cume]
12. El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $2.87 million  [$2.87 million cume]
13. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $2.1 million [$130.1 million cume]
14. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $1.1 million [$6.1 million cume]
15. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $975,000 [$975,000 cume]
16. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $900,000 [$4.6 million cume]
17. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $647,000 [$2.8 million cume]
18. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $543,000 [$4.2 million cume]
19. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $460,000 [$2.6 million cume]
20. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $455,000 [$22.6 million cume]
21. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $407,500 [$320.6 million cume]
22. Knocked Up (Universa) -- $306,000 [$146 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $271,000 [$6.5 million cume]
24. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $256,000 [$25.1 million cume]
25. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $254,000 [$130.2 million cume]
26. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $237,000 [$8.6 million cume]
27. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $175,500 [$97.1 million cume]
28. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $140,000 [$70.6 million cume]
29. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $130,300 [$607,000 cume]
30. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $122,000 [$42.5 million cume]
31. The Ten (Thinkfilm) -- $117,000 [$117,000 cume]
32. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $109,000 [$115.8 million cume]
33. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $76,000 [$18.6 million cume]
34. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) -- $68,300 [$107,400 cume]
35. Cash (AdLabs) -- $57,000 [$57,000 cume]
36. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $48,000 [$28.4 million cume]
37. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $39,500 [$80.1 million cume]
38. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) -- $32,000 [$9.1 million cume]
39. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- $14,800 [$355,000 cume]

SATURDAY MORNING: Universal is saying this morning that The Bourne Ultimatum delivered $24.5 million on Friday, but I am sticking with my early Friday estimate of $25.5 million. There was $1 million in Thursday midnight business, and nobody can seem to explain how that is figured in. I'm also sticking with $72 million for the weekend, which exceeds most analyst expectations (although my friend Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has been targeting $70 million all week). Meanwhile, The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) is lurching toward an incredibly soft second weekend, and some studio types that I've spoken to this morning think that it won't even make the $25 million that I called for last night (scroll down to read my Friday night story).

I've just completed my full chart for the weekend, and here are some highlights:

• I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry will top $90 million, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) will surpass $260 million and Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) will be just shy of $300 million by Monday morning.

• El Cantante (Picturehouse), produced by and starring Jennifer Lopez, along with Marc Anthony, has exceeded my early Friday estimate of $850,000 for slightly better $1 million. This biopic about the life of salsa king Hector Lavoe should finish the weekend with an estimated $2.76 million and a PTA of just over $5,000.

• The Miramax Jane Austen yarn Becoming Jane, starring Anne Hathaway, performed solidly on 100 screens. It generated about $3,200 per location on Friday and should finish the weekend with about $1 million, or $10,000 per screen.

• Thinkfilm debuted the ensemble comedy The Ten based on the Biblical 10 commandments, but results are just so-so. It grabbed an estimated $38,450 on Friday for a PTA just over $1,500. It will likely reach only $128,000 or so for the weekend ($5,120 PTA).

• Paramount Vantage had very high hopes for nature film Arctic Tale. There's a huge Starbucks tie-in and reviews are solid. This is not, however, March of the Penguins. Its expansion to 28 locations is falling flat with a take of just over $18,000 or $642 per screen. Moviegoers are clearly giving Arctic the cold shoulder, and it will likely only reach $83,000 for the weekend (just under $3,000 per).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $25.5 million [$25.5 million cume]
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $8 million  [$110.9 million cume]
3. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $4.1 million  [$4.1 million cume]
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $3.3 million  [$84.4 million cume]
5. Hairspray (New Line) -- $3 million  [$72.6 million cume]
6. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $2.8 million  [$254.3 million cume]
7. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) $2.2 million  [$19.7 million cume]
8. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $2 million  [$2 million cume]
9. Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $1.75 million  [$1.75 million cume]
10. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $1.7 million  [$292 million cume]
11. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $1.2 million [$185.4 million cume]
12. El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $1,000,000  [$1,000,000 cume]
13. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $600,000 [$128.6 million cume]
14. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $370,000 [$5.4 million cume]
15. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $310,000 [$310,000 cume]
16. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $265,000 [$3.9 million cume]
17. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $171,600 [$2.3 million cume]
18. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $150,000 [$3.8 million cume]
19. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $129,000 [$320.3 million cume]
20. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $127,000 [$2.3 million cume]
21. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $119,200 [$22.25 million cume]
22. Knocked Up (Universa) -- $92,600 [$145.8 million cume]
23. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $88,500 [$25 million cume]
24. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $78,000 [$130 million cume]
25. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $66,500 [$6.3 million cume]
26. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $54,700 [$97 million cume]
27. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $54,000 [$8.5 million cume]
28. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $45,400 [$70.5 million cume]
29. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $40,560 [$42.4 million cume]
30. The Ten (Thinkfilm) -- $38,450 [$38,450 cume]
31. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $33,500 [$510,000 cume]
32. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $31,800 [$115.7 million cume]
33. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $21,500 [$18.5 million cume]
34. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) -- $18,200 [$60,500 cume]
35. Cash (AdLabs) -- $15,600 [$15,600 cume]
36. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $14,800 [$28.3 million cume]
37. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $11,700 [$80.1 million cume]
38. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) -- $10,000 [$9.1 million cume]
39. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- $3,600 [$344,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $72 million [$72 million cume]
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $25 million  [$127.9 million cume]
3. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $12.1 million  [$12.1 million cume]
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $10.6 million  [$91.7 million cume]
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $9.7 million  [$261.2 million cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) -- $9.4 million  [$79 million cume]
7. No Reseravtions (Warner Bros.) -- $7.1 million  [$24.6 million cume]
8. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $6.3 million  [$296.6 million cume]
9. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $5.1 million  [$5.1 million cume]
10. Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $4.4 million  [$4.4 million cume]
11. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $3.9 million [$188.2 million cume]
12. El Cantante -- $2.76 million  [$2.76 million cume]
13. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $2 million [$130 million cume]
14. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $1.07 million [$6.1 million cume]
15. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $1 million [$1 million cume]
16. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $665,000 [$4.3 million cume]
17. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $626,000 [$2.8 million cume]
18. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $508,000 [$4.1 million cume]
19. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $447,000 [$22.5 million cume]
20. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $420,500 [$320.6 million cume]
21. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $405,000 [$2.6 million cume]
22. Knocked Up (Universa) -- $308,000 [$146 million cume]
23. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $283,000 [$25.2 million cume]
24. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $257,000 [$6.5 million cume]
25. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $255,000 [$130.2 million cume]
26. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $225,000 [$8.6 million cume]
27. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $177,500 [$97.1 million cume]
28. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $141,700 [$70.6 million cume]
29. The Ten (Thinkfilm) -- $128,800 [$128,800 cume]
30. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $123,700 [$42.5 million cume]
31. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $120,600 [$597,000 cume]
32. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $109,000 [$115.8 million cume]
33. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) -- $83,000 [$125,400 cume]
34. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $75,000 [$18.6 million cume]
35. Cash (AdLabs) -- $52,250 [$52,250 cume]
36. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $48,000 [$28.4 million cume]
37. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $39,000 [$80.1 million cume]
38. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) -- $33,600 [$9.1 million cume]
39. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- $11,800 [$352,000 cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) is already a critical favorite with an amazing rating of 92 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and a MetaCritic score of 83, but now it is a huge popular success as well. It's not a surprise to see Ultimatum at the top of the weekend box office heap, but it has far exceeded most expectations. Ultimatum grabbed $25.5 million on Friday, which should translate to a staggering $72 million opening weekend. That's easily the best opening in the franchise topping The Bourne Identity's $27.1 million and The Bourne Supremacy's $52.5 million. This also marks the best opening weekend of Matt Damon's career.

TOP 10 MATT DAMON OPENINGS
1. The Bourne Ultimatum: $72 million (estimate)
2. The Bourne Supremacy: $52.5 million
3. Ocean's Twelve: $39.1 million
4. Ocean's Eleven: $38.1 million
5. Ocean's Thirteen: $36.1 million
6. Saving Private Ryan: $30.5 million
7. The Bourne Identity: $27.1 million
8. The Departed: $26.8 million
9. Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron: $17.7 million
10. The Brothers Grimm: $15 million

Meanwhile, last week's big winner The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) is taking a larger than expected drop after a meteoric $102.9 million in its opening 7 days. The big screen version of Fox's long-running series has added an estimated $8 million on Friday, but the animated flick is headed for only $25 million or so for the weekend, which is a massive 66 percent drop from its opening. Disney's Underdog, which wasn't screened for critics, is a surprise third with $4.1 million on Friday and, with a big Saturday and Sunday kiddie bounce, it should have $12.1 million banked by Monday morning. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) is a solid fourth with $3.3 million today and an estimated $10.6 million for the weekend. That will put the latest Adam Sandler comedy over $90 million domestic. Hairspray (New Line) is No. 5 for the day with $3 million just ahead of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) with $2.8 million, but they will switch places by the time the weekend numbers are final. HP5 will be fifth with approximately $9.7 million while Hairspray will settle for sixth with an estimated $9.4 million.

Hot Rod (Paramount) and Bratz (Lionsgate) have both tanked. The Andy Samberg comedy from SNL producer Lorne Michaels stumbled out of the gates with only $2 million, and it will manage only a meager $5.1 million for the three-day. Bratz, geared for preteen girls, could only drum up $1.75 million to start the weekend, and it will finish the weekend with an  estimated $4.4 million.

Among limited releases, the Jennifer Lopez-produced El Cantante (Picturehouse) has a PTA of $1,600 or so, which gives it an estimated $850,000 for the day on 542 screens. This biopic about salsa king Hector Lavoe should finish the weekend with something in the $2.5 million range. Also scoring well is Becoming Jane (Miramax) starring Anne Hathaway with an average of just over $3,000 on its 100 screens and an estimated $310,000. This Jane Austen biopic will likely bank about $1.1 million during its opening three-day with an aggressive expansion set for next weekend.

Lots of updates this weekend so check back often:

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $25.5 million [$25.5 million cume]
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $8 million  [$110.9 million cume]
3. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $4.1 million  [$4.1 million cume]
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $3.3 million [$84.4 million cume]
5. Hairspray (New Line) -- $3 million  [$72.6 million cume]
6. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $2.8 million  [$254.3 million cume]
7. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $2.2 million  [$19.7 million cume]
8. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $2 million  [$2 million cume]
9. Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $1.75 million  [$1.75 million cume]
10. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $1.7 million  [$292 million cume]
* El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $850,000  [$850,000 cume]
* Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $310,000 [$310,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $72 million [$72 million cume]
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $25 million  [$127.9 million cume]
3. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $12.1 million  [$12.1 million cume]
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $10.6 million  [$91.7 million cume]
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $9.7 million  [$261.2 million cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) -- $9.4 million  [$79 million cume]
7. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) $7.1 million  [$24.6 million cume]
8. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $6.3 million  [$296.6 million cume]
9. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $5.1 million  [$5.1 million cume]
10. Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $4.4 million  [$4.4 million cume]
* El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $2.5 million  [$2.5 million cume]
* Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $1.1 million [$1.1 million cume]