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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

August 10, 2007

FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Rush Hour 3' targets $60M; 'Stardust' headed for $13M-$16M; 'Daddy Day Camp' with less than $10M; 'Skinwalkers' to flop

by Steve Mason

Brett Ratner's Rush Hour 3 (New Line) is the only sure thing this weekend (Aug. 10-12), and it will coast to an easy weekend win.

Ratner is a very odd dude. As evidence, check out this tale of his first sexual experience as captured at Slash Film. He is, however, a box-office force to be reckoned with.

OPENING WEEKENDS FOR BRETT RATNER-DIRECTED FILMS
X-Men: The Last Stand (2006): $102.7 million
Rush Hour 2 (2001): $67.4 million
Red Dragon (2002): $36.5 million
Rush Hour (1998): $33 million
After the Sunset (2004): $11.1 million
Money Talks (1997): $10.6 million
The Family Man (2000): $10.5 million

It's been six years since Chris Tucker, Jackie Chan and Ratner gave us Rush Hour 2, which grabbed a monstrous $67.4 million on opening weekend en route to a total domestic gross of $226.1 million, and industry tracking indicates that the moviegoing public is excited about their return.

Rush Hour 3 has a Total Aware of 91 percent, and its Definite Interest is at 49 percent, which is better than opening day tracking for 2007 hits like Ghost Rider (42 percent), Wild Hogs (45 percent) and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (42 percent). In the big money demo of Males Under 25, Definite Interest for RH3 is at a staggering 67 percent, easily surpassing the opening-day numbers in that demo for Ghost Rider (53 percent), Wild Hogs (47 percent) and FF2 (50 percent). This New Line action/comedy is scoring excellent Definite Interest numbers with Males 25 Plus (44 percent) and Females Under 25 (46 percent) as well.

The picture looks a bit softer in the First Choice column with 18 percent compared to opening-day numbers of 25 percent for Ghost Rider, 23 percent for Wild Hogs and 21 percent for FF2.

Ghost Rider: First Choice, 25 percent
(Males Under 25, 34 percent; Males 25 Plus, 35 percent; Females Under 25, 15 percent; Females 25 Plus, 16 percent)

Wild Hogs: First Choice, 23 percent
(Males Under 25, 16 percent; Males 25 Plus, 30 percent; Females Under 25, 10 percent; Females 25 Plus, 36 percent)

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: First Choice, 21 percent
(Males Under 25, 32 percent; Males 25 Plus, 27 percent; Females Under 25, 12 percent; Females 25 Plus, 14 percent)

Rush Hour 3: First Choice, 18 percent
(Males Under 25, 29 percent; Males 25 Plus, 16 percent; Females Under 25, 14 percent; Female 25 Plus, 11 percent)

Still, when all is said and done, Rush Hour 3 should finish with somewhere in the $55 million-$60 million range -- a notch below Rush Hour 2, but impressive nonetheless.

Stardust (Paramount) opens on just over 2,500 screens today, and, despite solid reviews, it appears that this Matthew Vaughn-directed fantasy film will fizzle. With a rating of 74 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and a solid score of 65 at MetaCritic, the film deserves to do some business ... but industry tracking shows that it isn't quite connecting with the public. Total Aware is at just 61 percent (Males Under 25, 54 percent; Males 25 Plus, 59 percent; Females Under 25, 70 percent; Females 25 Plus, 62 percent) and Definite Interest is a very soft 27 percent (Males Under 25, 20 percent; Males 25 Plus, 23 percent; Females Under 25, 33 percent; Females 25 Plus, 30 percent). I'm told that Paramount has "kept its powder dry" for a late-week TV push, and I've definitely seen a lot of Stardust commercials in the past 48 hours, but the film will likely finish in the $13 million-$16 million range.

Daddy Day Camp (Sony) got a Wednesday opening, and the sequel managed only $773,000 on its opening day and an estimated $710,000 Thursday. As I wrote last week, Daddy Day Camp has the worst possible tracking scenario. 82 percent of the moviegoing public is aware of it, but only 16 percent of them have Definite Interest in buying a ticket. There are definitely some kids unrepresented in the tracking, but, realistically, there's no way for this one to climb into double digits on opening weekend. This ill-fated film will problem finish the 3-day in the $5 million-$8 million range and something under $10 million for its opening 5 days. 

Lionsgate and After Dark are following up the disastrous release of Captivity with Skinwalkers. It has a Total Aware of only 26 percent and Definite Interest of only 18 percent. Captivity scrounged up only $1.4 million on its opening weekend, and, on fewer than 800 screens, Skinwalkers will be lucky to reach $1 million.

Here are my final predictions for the weekend of Aug. 10-12:
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) -- $58.1 million
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $33
million
3. Stardust (Paramount) -- $15.7 million
4. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $12.5 million
5. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) -- $7 million
6. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $6.9 million
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $6 million
8. Hairspray (New Line) -- $5.75 million
9. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $5.25 million
10. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $3.5 million
* Skinwalkers (Lionsgate/After Dark) -- $975,000

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Posted at 12:14 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

friskytiger81

Wow, in the same summer, Antonioni and Bergman have died, Michael Bay directed a successful film and Brett Ratner is releasing another sequel that will presumably be at the top of the box office. Yes, good cinema is almost dead. Please P.T., Wes, and Terry (George) give us something to chew on...please!

Posted by: friskytiger81 | August 10, 2007 at 10:21 PM

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