In 2002, The Bourne Identity, starring Matt Damon and directed by Doug Liman (who opted to helm Mr. & Mrs. Smith instead of a Bourne sequel), opened with a very solid $27.1 million en route to a $121.6 million domestic haul. Bloody Sunday director Paul Greengrass stepped in for 2004's The Bourne Supremacy, and his frenetically charged style transformed the franchise into a phenomenon. Supremacy grabbed $52.5 million in its opening frame and finished at $176.2 million in the U.S. Now Greengrass, fresh from his Oscar nomination for last year's United 93, returns with Damon for what will purportedly be the final Bourne movie.

The reviews for The Bourne Ultimatum are spectacular. The spy thriller has an amazing rating of 92 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 83 from MetaCritic . This is a perfect marriage of director and actor. Greengrass is one of the best directors working today. Look at the critical acclaim of his last three films:

United 93 (2006) -- $11.4 million opening ($31.4 million cume)
Rotten Tomatoes: 91 percent Fresh
MetaCritic: 90

The Bourne Supremacy (2004) -- $52.5 million opening ($176.2 million cume)
Rotten Tomatoes: 82 percent Fresh
MetaCritic: 73

Bloody Sunday (2002) -- $29,000 opening ($773,000 cume)
Rotten Tomatoes: 92 percent Fresh
MetaCritic: 90

Meanwhile, Damon is a thinking man's action star. Is there anyone that doesn't believe that Matt would kick Ben Affleck's butt on Jeopardy? He brings a likeable intelligence to any project, and he's certainly a bankable star. Just ask Anthony Minghella (The Talented Mr. Ripley), Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan) and Martin Scorsese (The Departed). Moviegoers and critics agree that Damon is very watchable. In fact, he's a bit underrated. Look at Matt Damon's all-time top 10 openings.

TOP 10 MATT DAMON OPENINGS
1. The Bourne Supremacy: $52.5 million
2. Ocean's Twelve: $39.1 million
3. Ocean's Eleven: $38.1 million
4. Ocean's Thirteen: $36.1 million
5. Saving Private Ryan: $30.5 million
6. The Bourne Identity: $27.1 million
7. The Departed: $26.8 million
8. Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron: $17.7 million
9. The Brothers Grimm: $15 million
10. The Talented Mr. Ripley: $12.7 million

For my money, seven of these pictures rate somewhere between well-above-average and classic. (Ocean's Twelve was a disappointment, who really saw the animated Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron and The Brothers Grimm was a mess.)

The latest industry tracking indicates that The Bourne Ultimatum will be huge. The best recent comparable title we have is Live Free or Die Hard (Fox), which is also a PG-13 rated action sequel. The latest John McClane chapter opened on a Wednesday and delivered a 5-day of $48.3 million against fierce competition. Bourne will not be opening against anything with as much traction as Disney/Pixar's Ratatouille.

In a head-to-head comparison, Die Hard is slightly stronger in Unaided Awareness, which measures buzz and anticipation, 12 percent to 9 percent and in the Total Aware column 89 percent to 81 percent. In Definite Interest, however, Bourne is way in front with a 55 percent score (Males Under 25, 55 percent; Males 25 Plus, 58 percent; Females Under 25, 45 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 51 percent) compared to just 40 percent for DH4 percent; (Males Under 25, 51 percent; Males 25 Plus, 42 percent; Females Under 25, 32 and Females 25 Plus, 34 percent). Finally, the First Choice numbers for Bourne percent are truly impressive. It has an overall First Choice of 28 percent (Males Under 25, 29 percent; Males 25 Plus, 41; Females Under 25, 13 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 31 percent) compared to 16 percent for Die Hard (Males Under 25, 24 percent; Males 25 Plus, 19 percent; Females Under 25, 8 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 14 percent).

Numbers like that add up to a huge opening for The Bourne Ultimatum. This is a four-quadrant movie (although it's a bit soft with Under 25 Females), and with all of that interest with the 25-plus crowd, it should have terrific legs.

The other four wide releases have problems, none bigger than the Lionsgate release of Bratz. This picture is based on a line of dolls and is very specifically targeted at 8-12 year old girls. They may not be fully represented in the tracking, but the numbers are still ugly. With 46 percent Total Aware, 13 percent Definite Interest and 1 percent First Choice, this movie will barely create a ripple in the marketplace, and, even with 1,500-plus screens, it’s hard to imagine anything more than $1 million-$3 million this weekend.

El Cantante (Picturehouse) is a specialty film, and it will open at 542 locations today. Picturehouse is going with a mix of arthouse runs and traditional commercial houses, especially those in heavily Latino neighborhoods. The movie is produced by and stars Jennifer Lopez along with husband Marc Anthony, and it’s a biopic about the life of salsa king Hector Lavoe. J-Lo has a very mixed track record, but she certainly has more hits than flop:

TOP 10 JENNIFER LOPEZ OPENINGS
1. Monster-in-Law: $23.1 million
2. Maid in Manhattan: $18.7 million
3. The Cell: $17.5 million
4. Antz: $17.1 million
5. Enough: $14 million
6. Anaconda: $16.6 million
7. The Wedding Planner: $13.5 million
8. Shall We Dance: $11.7 million
9. Selena: $11.6 million
10. Angel Eyes: $9.2 million

Reviews are soft for El Cantante with just a 29 percent Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and score of 49 from MetaCritic, but they could be worse. Industry tracking is at just 46 percent Total Aware, 16 percent Definite Interest and 3 percent First Choice, but I’m guessing that Latinos are under-sampled. Still, with limited prints, El Cantante will do no better than $1M-$2M.

Underdog (Buena Vista) is a new family film from Disney, and was not screened for critics. One of the reviews that has come in is from Nell Minnow, Yahoo!'s Movie Mom, who reviews films from a parental perspective. She says that, "There may be no need to fear now that Underdog is here, but there is no reason to feel happy either."

Tracking shows that Underdog has the worst possible scenario. It has an 80 percent Total Aware, but only a 16 percent Definite Interest score. That means people know about it, and don't want to see it. Disney has leveraged over 3,000 screens, however, and I suspect that most moms (Nell from Yahoo! not included) will feel comfortable loading up the car and going to see this one. I'm putting Underdog in the $7M-$10M range.

Finally, there's Hot Rod (Paramount) starring Andy Samberg, Isla Fisher (about to give birth to Borat's baby), Ian McShane from Deadwood, Sissy Spacek and Bill Hader and Chris Parnell from Saturday Night Live. This sports spoof has a 33 percent Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and it has a MetaCritic score of 47, but reviews will not make or break this movie. Tracking is surprisingly soft with a Total Aware of just 42 percent, Definite Interest at a meager 25 percent and First Choice at 3 percent. Still, much of its strength is in the "money demo" of Males Under 25, and that should put Hot Rod in the $8 million-$10 million range for the three-day.

Here are my final predictions for this weekend, Aug. 3-5:   

1. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $62 million
2. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $31 million
3. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $10.5 million
4. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $10.2 million
5. Hairspray (New Line) -- $9.5 million
6. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $8.5 million
7. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $7.5 million
8. No Reservtions (Warner Bros.) -- $6.75 million
9. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $6.5 million
10. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $5 million
* Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $2.6 million
* El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $1.35 million