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August 31, 2007

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Halloween' has Slow Sabbath but Still All-Time Labor Day Champ with $31.32M; 'Superbad' in Second; 'Balls' Edges 'Bourne' for Third; 'Nines' Wins PTA Battle

by Steve Mason

SUNDAY NIGHT: Michael Myers is the new Labor Day box-office king, but he's bleeding after dropping another 19 percent on Sunday. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) still managed a $6.94 million day and closed the book on a three-day scare of $26.46 million, but its projected four-day of $31.32 million is much softer than you would expect after almost $11 million on Friday.

Superbad (Sony) got a 9 percent Sunday bump for an estimated $4.68 million. The Judd Apatow-produced, Seth Rogen-written comedy will finish the long weekend with approximately $15.73 million, and the R-rated hit has now broken past the $90 million mark. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) enjoyed a 4 percent increase, while Balls of Fury (Rogue) dipped 10 percent on Sunday, giving Bourne a third-place Sunday finish. Balls, however, will be No. 3 for the four-day weekend with $13.79 million to $13.52 million for the Matt Damon thriller.

The other new wide release, Death Sentence from 20th Century Fox, is a bomb, adding just $1.41 million on Sunday. By Tuesday morning, the James Wan-directed thriller will have limped to just $5.2 million. Looking at the numbers, you'll see a nearly 40 percent jump for War (Lionsgate) on its second Sunday. People didn't just suddenly discover the Jet Li-Jason Statham action flick. Most of Lionsgate's 340 or so sneaks of 3:10 to Yuma were part of War's Sunday number. Finally, The Nines (Newmarket Films) claims the four-day PTA crown with almost $14,000 per screen. Halloween will finish a rather disappointing fourth in per-screen average.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SUNDAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $6.94 million [$26.46 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $4.68 million [$89.2 million cume]
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $3.96 million [$199.7 million cume]
4. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $3.7 million [$14.1 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $3.17 million [$120.8 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $2.21 million [$19 million cume]
7. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.8 million [$15.3 million cume]
8. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $1.41 million [$4.2 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $1.86 million [$17 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $1.17 million [$31 million cume]
11. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $1.03 million [$177.6 million cume]
12. Hairspray (New Line) — $1.01 million [$111.5 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $525,000 [$1.45 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $25,000 [$49,200 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $6,607 [$22,400 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS FINAL 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $26.46 million [$26.46 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $12.45 million [$89.2 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $11.19 million [$14.1 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $10.34 million [$199.7 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $8.59 million [$120.8 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $6.01 million [$19 million cume]
7. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $5.15 million [$15.3 million cume]
8. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $4.21 million [$4.21 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $4.21 million [$17 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.08 million [$31.1 million cume]
11. Hairspray (New Line) — $2.78 million [$111.5 million cume]
12. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $2.79 million [$177.6 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $1.45 million [$1.45 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $49,200 [$49,200 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $22,400 [$22,400 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $31.32 million [$31.32 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $15.73 million [$92.5 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $13.79 million [$16.7 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $13.52 million [$202.9 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $10.97 million [$123.1 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $7.9 million [$20.9 million cume]
7. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $6.41 million [$16.5 million cume]
8. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $5.2 million [$5.2 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $5.05 million [$17.9 million cume]
10. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $3.6 million [$178.5 million cume]
11. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.96 million [$31.9 million cume]
12. Hairspray (New Line) — $3.54 million [$112.3 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $1.68 million [$1.68 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $69,000 [$69,000 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $27,700 [$27,700 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS 4-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Nines (Newmarket Films) — 2 screens, $13,845 PTA
2. Vanaja (Emerging Pictures) — 1 screens, $10,745 PTA
3. Exiled (Magnolia) — 2 screens, $9,985 PTA
4. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — 3,472 screens, $9,023 PTA
5. Deep Water (IFC Films) — 2 screens, $9,000 PTA
6. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — 112 screens, $6,967 PTA
7. Manda Bala (Send a Bullet) (Slowhand) — 3 screens, $5,936 PTA
8. The King of Kong (Picturehouse) — 21 screens, $5,584 PTA
9. Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — 340 screens, $5,522 PTA
10. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — 4 screens, $5,393 PTA

SATURDAY NIGHT: The 2007 version of John Carpenter's 1978 classic Halloween was definitely frontloaded. MGM/Weinstein's remake/re-imagining of the Michael Myers slash-fest took a dramatic 20 percent drop on Saturday for a Day 2 gross of about $8.65 million. Based on the drop, I'm revising Halloween to a three-day of $27.28 million and projecting a four-day take of $32.83 million. That's very good, but shy of the $35 million-plus I was calling for 24 hours ago.

Superbad (Sony) was No. 2 on Saturday with an estimated $4.1 million, followed by Balls of Fury (Rogue), which got a nice 20 percent Saturday bump to just over $4 million. It looks like the goofy ping pong comedy will edge The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) for the third spot in the three-day and four-day races. Jason Bourne is finally losing steam, as evidenced by the thriller's $3.69 million Saturday. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) rounds out the Top 5 for Saturday with approximately $3.3 million. 

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $8.65 million [$19.6 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $4.1 million [$84.4 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $4.04 million [$10.3 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $3.69 million [$195.6 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $3.3 million [$117.6 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $2.3 million [$16.8 million cume]
7. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.94 million [$13.5 million cume]
8. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $1.43 million [$2.7 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $1.34 million [$15.2 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $1.14 million [$29.9 million cume]
11. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $1.04 million [$176.6 million cume]
12. Hairspray (New Line) — $1.03 million [$110.5 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $491,000 [$932,600 cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $14,138 [$24,458 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $6,046 [$15,800 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $27.38 million [$27.38 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $12.5 million [$89.3 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $10.93 million [$13.8 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $9.69 million [$199.1 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $8.54 million [$120.7 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $6.04 million [$19 million cume]
7. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $5.13 million [$15.2 million cume]
8. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $4.25 million [$4.25 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $3.57 million [$16.4 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $3 million [$31 million cume]
11. Hairspray (New Line) — $2.73 million [$111.5 million cume]
12. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $2.71 million [$177.6 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $1.37 million [$1.37 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $37,890 [$37,890 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $21,200 [$21,200 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $32.83 million [$32.83 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $15.5 million [$91 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $13.28 million [$16.2 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $12.09 million [$201.5 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $10.74 million [$122.9 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $7.57 million [$20.5 million cume]
7. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $6.35 million [$16.5 million cume]
8. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $5.1 million [$5.1 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $4.43 million [$17.2 million cume]
10. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $3.9 million [$178.7 million cume]
11. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.67 million [$31.6 million cume]
12. Hairspray (New Line) — $3.42 million [$112.2 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $1.68 million [$1.68 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $48,500 [$48,500 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $25,300 [$25,300 cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: Michael Myers has returned from the dead to slaughter all box-office competition. The all-new MGM/Weinstein version of Halloween has exploded for an estimated $10.5 million on Friday, and it's headed for a three-day of $30 million and a spectacular four-day Labor Day weekend of $35.8 million.

The success isn't a complete surprise. Director Rob Zombie has done well in the past, with low-budget slasher flicks House of 1,000 Corpses ($12.6 million domestic) and The Devil's Rejects ($17 million cume). And, after seeing the heavy metal rocker's version of the 1978 John Carpenter classic, Bob and Harvey Weinstein signed Zombie to a two-picture deal. Plus, as I reported in my Final Weekend Tracking column, Halloween opened with Total Awareness of 82 percent in the industry's audience tracking, along with 36 percent Definite Interest and a First Choice of 13 percent. I suggested that this could be a four-quadrant hit, since it opened the day with an 11 percent First Choice with Males 25 Plus and an 10 percent First Choice with Females 25 Plus. I wrote that, "There will be a wave of nostalgia, but it won't be a tsunami." I predicted $25 million-plus, but there is now a tsunami warning in effect with this movie going much higher.

Halloween will easily become the All-Time No. 1 Four-Day Labor Day weekend champion, but who could have guessed that it would come in 44 percent above previous record-holder Transporter 2?

TOP 10 FOUR-DAY LABOR DAY WEEKENDS
1. Halloween — $35.8 million (projected)
2. Transporter 2 — $20.1 million
3. Jeepers Creepers 2 — $18.3 million
4. Jeepers Creepers — $15.8 million
5. Crank — $12.8 million
6. The Wicker Man — $11.7 million
7. The Constant Gardener — $10.9 million
8. The Crow: City of Angels — $9.7 million
9. First Kid — $8.4 million
10. Hoodlum — $8.1 million

This will easily be the best three-day opening weekend of the nine-film Michael Myers franchise.

TOP 3-DAY OPENING WEEKENDS FOR MICHAEL MYERS MOVIES
1. Halloween (2007) — $30 million (projected)
2. Halloween: H2O (1998) — $16.1 million
3. Halloween: Resurrection (2002) — $12.2 million
4. Halloween II (1981) — $7.4 million
5. Halloween: The Curse of Michael Myers (1995) — $7.3 million

Also as expected, Michael Myers has become the all-time No. 4 grossing “Killer” franchise in modern box office history, surpassing Jigsaw from the Saw trilogy and trailing only Hannibal Lecter, Jason (Friday the Thirteenth) and Freddy Krueger.

TOP 5 GROSSING “KILLER” FRANCHISES
1. Hannibal Lecter from The Silence of the Lambs (5 films) — $425.2 milllion
2. Jason Vorhees from Friday the Thirteenth (11 films) — $315.6 milllion
3. Freddy Krueger from A Nightmare On Elm Street (8 films) — $307.4 milllion
4. Michael Myers from Halloween (9 films) — $250.5 milllion (includes four-day projection)
5. Jigsaw from Saw (3 films) — $222.5 milllion

Overall, this will be a very strong holiday weekend. Superbad (Sony) has added another $3.5 million, but after losing a huge bite to Halloween Friday, my sources say it will bounce back for a $13.5 million three-day weekend and a terrific four-day of $17 million.

Balls of Fury and a four-day of $12.4 (Rogue) grabbed a decent $3.4 million on Friday, bringing its three-day cume to $6.3 million. The poorly reviewed Christopher Walken comedy is headed for a three-day of $10.5 million.  The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) was fourth on Friday with $2.6 million, and it'll bank an additional $10 million by the end of Sunday business and $13 million by Tuesday morning. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) picked up another $2 million, and it'll finish No. 5 for the three-day ($8 million) and the four-day ($10.2 million).

Among other new releases, Death Sentence (20th Century Fox), from Saw creator James Wan, struggled to $1.6 million on its opening day. That will translate to a long weekend of only $6.6 million. The results were much better for the Spanish-language caper movie Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate). Debuting at just 340 locations, Ladron scored about $440,000 or a PTA of $1,300. Its three-day has a chance to approach $1.5 million and it could have $1.8 million banked by Tuesday morning.

In the specialty film market, The Nines (NewMarket Films), a favorite from January's Sundance Film Festival, opened on two screens and delivered almost $10,000. Riding excellent reviews, The Nines will likely finish the weekend with approximately $48,000 or about $24,000 per location. Thinkfilm's Self-Medicated, on the other hand, limped to about $11,000 on 16 screens. That's a PTA of only $680 for Friday, and the edgy teen drama will almost certainly finish the weekend with less than $50,000.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $10.5 million [$10.5 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $3.5 million [$80.3 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $3.4 million [$6.3 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $2.6 million [$192 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $2 million [$114.2 million cume]
6. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $1.6 million [$1.6 million cume]
7. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $1.5 million [$14.5 million cume]
8. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.4 million [$11.5 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $1 million [$13.8 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $800,000 [$28.8 million cume]
11. Hairspray (New Line) — $750,000 [$109.5 million cume]
12. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $725,000 [$175.6 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $442,000 [$442,000 cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $10,320 [$10,320 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $9,751 [$9,751 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $30 million [$30 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $13.5 million [$90.3 million cume]
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $10.5 million [$13.4 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $10 million [$199.4 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $8 million [$120.2 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $5.8 million [$18.7 million cume]
7. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $5.3 million [$5.3 million cume]
8. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $4.85 million [$15 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $3.7 million [$16.5 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.1 million [$31.1 million cume]
11. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $3.08 million [$177.9 million cume]
12. Hairspray (New Line) — $2.85 million [$111.6 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $1.45 million [$1.45 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $41,250 [$41,250 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $37,500 [$37,500 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $35.775 million [$35.775 million cume]
2. Superbad (Sony) — $17 million [$93.8 million cume]
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $13 million [$202.4 million cume]
4. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $12.4 million [$15.3 million cume]
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $10.2 million [$122.4 million cume]
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $7.2 million [$20.2 million cume]
7. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $6.6 million [$6.6 million cume]
8. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $6.25 million [$16.3 million cume]
9. War (Lionsgate) — $4.5 million [$17.3 million cume]
10. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $3.9 million [$178.7 million cume]
11. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.8 million [$31.8 million cume]
12. Hairspray (New Line) — $3.5 million [$112.3 million cume]
* Ladron Que Roba a Ladron (Lionsgate) — $1.8 million [$1.8 million cume]
* Self-Medicated (Thinkfilm) — $49,000 [$49,000 cume]
* The Nines (NewMarket Films) — $48,000 [$48,000 cume]

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Posted at 11:49 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

Im expecting an update tonight Mase before 4 am central time preferably.

Posted by: Tye Copeland | September 01, 2007 at 10:42 PM

Box Office Mojo's estimates list the top PTA films as:

1. The Nines
2. Halloween
3. Deep Water
4. Ladron Que Roba a Ladron
5. King of Kong

Is that what you've got?

Posted by: dranscht | September 02, 2007 at 12:28 PM

So Lionsgate needed to help out their stuggling Statham-Li pic so they threw out 360 sneaks of 3:10 to yuma to boost WAR's numbers? Sounds fishy to me. But oh well I made the mistake of putting War on my slate I can use the extra box office numbers, at least I switched to War from the Nanny Diaries which would have been an even bigger mistake.

Posted by: Tye Copeland | September 03, 2007 at 11:01 AM

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