MGM/Weinstein's The Nanny Diaries has a Total Aware of 55 percent, but 67 percent of Females Under 25 and 72 percent of Females 25 Plus know about it. Based on the bestselling novel by Emma McLaughlin an Nicola Kraus and starring Scarlett Johansson, Laura Linney, Chris Evans and Paul Giamatti, this picture has a slight chance of being an upside surprise. With Definite Interest, however,  at just 21 percent (Males Under 25, 6 percent; Males 25 Plus, 10 percent; Females Under 25, 34 percent; Females 25 Plus, 23), it looks like it'll open somewhere between In the Land of Women ($4.7 million) and Because I Said So ($13.1 million).

I can't quite figure out who are the audiences for Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) and September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing). On just under 1,600 screens, the Rowan Atkinson comedy has dim prospects with that deadliest of tracking scenarios: good Awareness (61 percent) with low Definite Interest (19 percent). Hard to imagine more than $5 million-$8 million . Meanwhile, Jon Voight is the star of the late summer, feel-good, period Mormon massacre film from Slowhand. A release on 850 screens is very ambitious, but probably not warranted. September Dawn's Total Aware is just 17 percent, its Definite Interest is 13 percent, and it has a 0 percent First Choice. This one is doomed to a $1 million-$3 million opening.

Finally, the tracking isn't especially food for Yari Film Group's Resurrecting the Champ, starring Josh Hartnett, Samuel L.Jackson, Alan Alda and Teri Hatcher, but this Rod Lurie-directed film is getting spectacular reviews reminiscent of last summer's The Illusionist. This awards-caliber movie is hitting 1,550 locations Friday, and its 35 percent Total Aware and 26 percent Definite Interest will improve thanks to the avalanche of positive reviews. Champ has a chance to score in the $4 million-$7 million range for its opening three-day frame.

Slash Film loves The Nines
My friend Peter Sciretta at Slash Film has impeccable taste, so I want to call your attention to a small film set for limited release starting Aug. 31. The Nines (Newmarket) was Peter's favorite film at this year’s Sundance Film Festival. As it turns out, he's not alone. At last check, The Nines (NewMarket) has a rating of 100 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and the film's trailer looks pretty fascinating. Produced by Bruce Cohen and Dan Jinks (Oscar winners for American Beauty); directed by John August, the writer of Big Fish and Charlie & the Chocolate Factory; and starring Ryan Reynolds (Smokin' Aces) and Hope Davis (American Splendor), this experimental film could be a nice sleeper for your Ultimate Movie Moguls studio with an 8.0 IMDb User Rating, around $3 million in domestic box office and 5-7 PTA points.

Strong early reviews but sluggish tracking for 3:10 to Yuma
Variety has weighed in on 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate), and it's a good solid review from Todd McCarthy:

"3:10 to Yuma is a tense, rugged redo of a film that was pretty good the first time around. Reinforced by a strong central premise, alert performances, a realistic view of the developing Old West and a satisfying dimensionality in its shadings of good and evil, James Mangold's remake walks a fine line in retaining many of the original's qualities while smartly shaking things up a bit."

As for the performances, McCarthy raves about Russell Crowe, Christian Bale kid actor Logan Lerman and Peter Fonda:

"Crowe is completely in his element here as, in the best tradition of great stars, he betrays no effort in conveying the masculine confidence, psychological acuity and manipulative power of his alluring bad guy; his Ben is one slick customer and more. Bale, whom one can imagine being effective in his own way as the villain, well embodies the strengths and frailties of the Eastern-bred rancher without sentimentality; and Lerman earns notice as a kid ready to skip adolescence and burst into full-blown manhood. Supporting turns are vivid, including a wonderfully leathery characterization by Peter Fonda as a supremely tough old bounty hunter."

Meanwhile, Michael Rechtshaffen from the Hollywood Reporter is also very positive:

"Pulling into theaters a full 50 years after the arrival of the original Van Heflin-Glenn Ford classic, James Mangold's expanded take on 3:10 to Yuma makes for a largely compelling ride on the strength of a powerful cast led by Russell Crowe and Christian Bale."

Rechtshaffen, however, also has a warning for Fantasy Moguls players:

"Lionsgate has bumped up the film's release to get a prime berth on the awards-season express, but Yuma still remains a tricky commercial proposition. Obviously much is being made of the fact that the film is from the directing and producing team responsible for Walk the Line as well as that match-up of two of the more intense actors in the business. But the genre and the darker subject matter is still going to require strong word-of-mouth and stronger marketing to attract audiences."

3:10 to Yuma is set for wide release on Sept. 7, but New Line's Shoot 'Em Up, starring Clive Owen, Paul Giamatti and Monica Belucci, is also going wide that day and seems to have more early traction in industry tracking. Shoot 'Em Up is at 25 percent Awareness (Males Under 25, 36 percent; Males 25 Plus, 27 percent; Females Under 25, 19 percent; Females 25 Plus, 17 percent) compared to 20 percent for Yuma (Males Under 25, 18 percent; Males 25 Plus, 33 percent; Females Under 25, 11 percent; Females 25 Plus, 18 percent). Plus, the New Line action pic wins in Definite Interest in a walk with 32 percent (Males Under 25, 35 percent; Males 25 Plus, 37 percent; Females Under 25, 23 percent; Females 25 Plus, 26 percent) to just 23 percent for the western (Males Under 25, 20 percent; Males 25 Plus, 27 percent; Females Under 25, 17 percent; Females 25 Plus, 20 percent).

It's still almost three weeks until this showdown happens with guns a blazin', but right now Shoot 'Em Up has the edge. My hunch is that more reviews like those of McCarthy and Rechtshaffen will drive a late surge in the tracking and still lift Yuma to a weekend win.

You probably don't want to own We Own the Night
James Gray's We Own the Night (Sony), the director's first film in seven years, has a killer pedigree: It stars Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix, both with recent Oscar nominations on their resumes, adds in Oscar winner Robert Duvall and rising star Eva Mendes, and it's got a great looking poster. Given its Oct. 12 release date, Sony probably hopes to position it as 2007's version of The Departed. There was some positive buzz after its Cannes Film Festival debut, and Sony grabbed some headlines when it secured worldwide distribution rights, but I went back and found the reviews that the trades ran in May, and both are negative. Kirk Honeycutt from the Hollywood Reporter complains that Gray is unimaginative:

"With three feature films to his credit — Little Odessa, The Yards and now We Own the Night — writer-director James Gray makes essentially the same film over and over again. We Own the Night — a phrase used by an '80s-era NYPD street crime unit — is a more accomplished film than The Yards. Yet it will fail to satisfy police movie buffs, as procedures are de-emphasized, and the drama is too perfunctory and obvious. Falling between the cracks as it does, the film's box-office performance, despite the presence of producers-stars Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg (who both starred in The Yards) looks very average.”

Todd McCarthy from Variety agrees and compares We Own the Night to a TV movie:

"Performances are solid but unsurprising. Phoenix frets and sweats as his character becomes increasingly squeezed, Wahlberg is not as lively or dimensional as he was in either The Departed or Shooter, and Duvall can do this sort of crusty old cop in his sleep. As Bobby's squeeze, Eva Mendes convincingly plays the slide of an enthusiastic party girl's feelings as her mate drags her into aggravating jeopardy. Ultimately, We Own the Night plays like little more than an OK television movie, which is hardly enough after years of The Sopranos and The Wire."

My best guess for We Own the Night is a 6.0 IMDb User Rating, $22.5 million domestic, 2 Top 5 points and zero PTA points.