As expected, Rush Hour 3 (New Line) will drop 60-plus percent for the weekend. After an estimated $6.3 million on Friday, the Tucker/Chan/Ratner action-comedy should still manage to reach $18.5 million on weekend No. 2. Meanwhile, The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) is holding decently with $5.2 million Friday and an anticipated $16.2 million weekend.

The stunner of the weekend is that The Invasion (Warner Bros.), the troubled fourth version of the 1950s novel The Body Snatchers, is performing far worse than anyone could have expected. The tracking services gave it a fighting shot at cracking $10 million for the weekend, but moviegoers have soundly rejected Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig and producer Joel Silver. The Invasion managed only $2 million on Friday, and it is headed for just a $5.7 million weekend, which will likely put it at No. 5 behind The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) with an estimated $5.8 million.

The other wide release is the misguided MGM/Weinstein historical epic The Last Legion. With a cast that includes Ben Kingsley, Anthony Hopkins, Colin Firth and Bollywood superstar Aishwarya Rai, the film may sell tickets abroad, but it generated only $800,000 on its opening day in the U.S., and it will finish the weekend with just $2.4 million by Monday morning. MGM, on the other hand, opened Frank Oz's U.S. Comedy Arts Festival winner Death at a Funeral on 260 screens, and has scored a modest hit. The dark comedy earned $350,000 on Friday, and it's headed for a $1.1 million weekend, a $4,230 per-theater average (PTA).

Leonardo DiCaprio's The 11th Hour (Warner Independent), a global warming documentary, is off to a blazing start with $28,280 on just four screens, for a $7,000-plus PTA. With strong reviews and considerable buzz, it will likely to cruise to just under $100,000 for the weekend and a $25,000-or-so PTA. That's far short of Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, which also opened on four screens back in May of last year. That Oscar-winning doc grabbed a monstrous $82,000 on its opening day and $285,000 in its opening three-day weekend. Still, the DiCaprio picture is likely to become a very strong art-house staple over the next couple of months.

Among other specialty titles, Slowhand Releasing made a strong debut with its doc about the mean streets of Brazil, Manda Bala: Send a Bullet. Opening on a single screen, the Jason Kohn-directed film delivered $5,356. It should finish with an estimated PTA of $16,000 or so, trailing only The 11th Hour and Superbad. Seth Gordon's documentary about classic video arcade games, The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters (Picturehouse) is also off to a strong start at five locations with an estimated $3,400 per. This niche documentary will likely reach $40,000 for the weekend, or about $8,000 per theatre. And Julie Delpy's 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) continues decently on 20 screens with a Friday PTA of about $1,500. It'll likely grab just over $100,000 by Monday morning.

On the PTA downside, Tom DiCillo's Delirious (Peace Arch Entertainment), which opened on two screens Wednesday, added three more on Friday. The offbeat show-business drama starring Steve Buscemi and Michael Pitt managed only $4,961 for the day, which translates to just under $1,000 per screen. And Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) added 203 screens, but audiences are continuing to give this nature doc narrated by Queen Latifah the cold shoulder. Its estimated $50,000 Friday take amounts to a mere $220 per screen. It'll limp to just $220,000 or so for the three-day, and Vantage may be forced to reconsider any further expansion. Also, Rocket Science (Picturehouse) expanded to 40 screens; however, the Sundance winner only scored $23,000 or an estimated $577 per screen.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $11.1 million [$11.1 million cume]
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $6.3 million [$72.6 million cume]
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $5.2 million [$150 million cume]
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $2 million [$2 million cume]
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $1.85 million [$160.2 million cume]
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $1.4 million  [$15.2 million cume]
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $1.25 million [$97.5 million cume]
8. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $1.05 million [$29.1 million cume]
9. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $950,000 [$107.8 million cume]
10. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $920,000 [$276 million cume]
11. Becoming Jane (Miramax) — $902,460 [$7 million cume]
12. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $800,000 [$800,000 cume]
13. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) — $621,566 [$34.7 million cume]
14. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $518,790 [$305 million cume]
15. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) — $498,343 [$7.4 million cume]
16. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) — $400,659 [$195.3 million cume]
17. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $350,000 [$350,000 cume]
18. Les 3 P'Tits Cochons (Christal Films) — $182,500 [$1.5 million cume]
19. Hot Rod (Paramount) — $146,917 [$12.6 million cume]
20. El Cantante (Picturehouse) — $143,433 [$6.1 million cume]
* Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) — $50,000 [$212,246 cume]
* 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $29,610 [$296,782 cume]
* The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $28,280 [$28,280 cume]
* No End in Sight (Magnolia) — $25,515 [$322,165 cume]
* Rocket Science (Picturehouse) — $23,096 [$109,652 cume] 
* The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $17,130 [$17,130 cume]
* Manda Bala: Send a Bullet (Slowhand Releasing) — $5,356 [$5,356 cume]
* Delirious (Peace Arch Entertainment) — $4,551 [$8,816 cume] 

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $30.3 million [$29.7 million cume]
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $18.5 million [$84.8 million cume]
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $16.2 million [$161.1 million cume]
4. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $5.8 million [$164.1 million cume]
5. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $5.7 million [$5.7 million cume]
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $4.4 million  [$18.2 million cume]
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $3.6 million [$99.9 million cume]
8. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $3.15 million [$278.2 million cume]
9. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $3 million [$31 million cume]
10. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $2.9 million [$109.8 million cume]
11. Becoming Jane (Miramax) — $2.8 million [$9 million cume]
12. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $2.4 million [$2.4 million cume]
13. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) — $1.9 million [$36 million cume]
14. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.6 million [$306.1 million cume]
15. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) — $1.45 million [$8.4 million cume]
16. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) — $1.27 million [$196.2 million cume]
17. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $1.1 million [$1.1 million cume]
18. Les 3 P'Tits Cochons (Christal Films) — $562,100 [$1.9 million cume]
19. El Cantante (Picturehouse) — $516,350 [$6.5 million cume]
20. Hot Rod (Paramount) — $426,000 [$12.9 million cume]
* Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) — $220,000 [$383,000 cume]
* 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $101,500 [$369,000 cume]
* The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $96,434 [$96,434 cume]
* No End in Sight (Magnolia) — $96,000 [$392,650 cume]
* Rocket Science (Picturehouse) — $76,000 [$162,500 cume] 
* The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $40,000 [$40,000 cume]
* Delirious (Peace Arch Entertainment) — $17,139 [$21,400 cume]
* Manda Bala: Send a Bullet (City Lights) — $16,068 [$16,068 cume]