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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

August 26, 2007

'Superbad' gets $6.5M Saturday and $18M for the weekend, now the No. 3 comedy and No. 2 R-rated film of 2007; 'Bourne' and 'Rush Hour' finish second and third; "Bean' w/$10M; 'War' w/$9.6M; 'Nanny' and 'Champ' disappoint; Leo's '11th Hour' stalls

by Steve Mason

The raunchy "nerdfest" Superbad (Sony) has coasted to an easy weekend win, becoming only the third summer movie to win back-to-back weekends (joining Spider-Man 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End). Produced by Judd Apatow and written by Knocked Up star Seth Rogen, this teen comedy, budgeted at just $18 million, stormed to another $6.52 million on Saturday, and its second weekend will hit $18.07 million for a new cume of $68.6 million.

That makes Superbad the third-highest grossing comedy of 2007 after 10 days of release, trailing only Wild Hogs and I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry, and that puts it ahead of the Apatow-directed early summer sensation Knocked Up.

TOP GROSSING COMEDIES OF 2007 (After 10 days of release)
1. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) — $77 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $71.6 million
3. Superbad (Sony) — $68.6 million (estimate)
4. Blades of Glory (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $67.9 million
5. Knocked Up (Universal) — $65.8 million

It's especially impressive given that Superbad has an audience limiting R-rating. In fact, this little, star-free, critically-acclaimed comedy is off to the second-best start for an R-rated movie this year, behind only mega-blockbuster 300.

TOP GROSSING R-RATED FILMS OF 2007 (After 10 days of release)
1. 300 (Warner Bros) — $129.1 million
2. Superbad (Sony) — $68.6 million (estimate)
3. Knocked Up (Universal) — $65.8 million
4. Shooter (Paramount) — $27.5 million
5. Smokin' Aces (Universal) — $24.7 million

As expected, The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) and Rush Hour 3 (New Line) took the "place and show" spots on Saturday, and for the weekend. Bourne grabbed $5.16 million on Saturday and will likely add another $3.45 million on Sunday for a three-day take of an estimated $12.12 million. Meanwhile, the Tucker/Chan action-comedy scored $4.87 million on Saturday, and, after an anticipated $3.46 million on Sunday, it'll finish with approximately $11.79 million.

New releases Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal), War (Lionsgate) and The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) finished 4-5-6, both for the day and for the weekend. Rowan Atkinson's Bean provided a slight upside surprise with $3.86 million Saturday and $9.98 million or so for the three-day. After a strong Friday, the Jason Statham-Jet Li action pic tailed off with $3.39 million on its second day and an opening weekend of an estimated $9.61 million. The Nanny Diaries is a disaster, limping to $2.78 million on Saturday and a weekend take of approximately $7.57 million.

Rod Lurie's well-reviewed Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) is off to a disappointing start. The Samuel L. Jackson vehicle, touted as a possible Oscar contender, managed only $664,500 Saturday and just $1.71 million for the weekend. That's a meager PTA of just $1,065. The outcome was better for Universal's Illegal Tender, which opened on just 512 screens. It delivered $1.32 million on opening weekend for a per screen of just over $2,500.

I never quite understood why September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing) was released so wide with 857 screens. Oscar winner Jon Voight stars in this bleak movie about a Mormon massacre in the mid-19th century. The results were predictably soft with just $584,000 or so, which means a $681 weekend PTA.

Leonardo DiCaprio's The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) expanded to 20 locations and suffered a stall at the box office. The weekend take for this global warming doc was only $66,596 for a three-day per theatre estimate of $3,329, only 10th in PTA for the weekend. IFC Films's yachting documentary Deep Water was the PTA winner, followed by Julie Delpy's 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films), Mr. Bean's Holiday, Superbad and Dedication (MGM/Weinstein), starring Mandy Moore and Billy Crudup.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $6.52 million [$62.7 million cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $5.16 million [$181.4 million cume]
3. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.87 million [$105 million cume]
4. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.86 million [$7 million cume]
5. War (Lionsgate) — $3.39 million [$6.8 million cume]
6. The Nanny Diaries (Universal) — $2.78 million [$5.4 million cume]
7. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $1.89 million [$172.2 million cume]
8. Stardust (Paramount) — $1.57 million [$25.1 million cume]
9. Hairspray (New Line) — $1.35 million [$106.3 million cume]
10. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $1.2 million [$10.5 million cume]
11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $985,000 [$280.3 million cume]
12. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $981,000 [$35.9 million cume]
13. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $802,000 [$111.8 million cume]
14. Becoming Jane (Miramax) — $715,000 [$10.3 million cume]
15. Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) — $664,500 [$1.2 million cume]
16. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) — $520,400 [$37.4 million cume]
17. Illegal Tender (Universal) — $515,000 [$1 million cume]
18. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) — $482,000 [$198.6 million cume]
19. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $461,000 [$307.2 million cume]
20. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $460,000 [$2.5 million cume]
21. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) — $306,000 [$10.9 million cume]
22. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $248,000 [$861,000 cume]
23. September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing) — $243,200 [$981,000 cume]
24. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $190,000 [$3 million cume]
25. Evan Almighty (Universal) — $124,000 [$98.8 million cume]
26. Knocked Up (Universal) — $102,250 [$147.6 million cume]
27. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) — $102,000 [$133 million cume]
28. El Cantante (Picturehouse) — $96,000 [$7 million cume]
29. Once (Fox Searchlight) — $91,500 [$7.5 million cume]
30. No End in Sight (Magnolia) — $76,000 [$584,000 cume]
31. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) — $70,000 [$131.3 million cume]
32. Bratz (Lionsgate) — $62,000 [$9.2 million cume]
33. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) — $56,000 [$116.8 million cume]
34. Sicko (Lionsgate/MGM) — $50,000 [$23.8 million cume]
35. Rocket Science (Picturehouse) — $43,000 [$335,000 cume]
36. Hot Rod (Paramount) — $34,000 [$13.4 million cume]
37. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) — $29,000 [$561,000 cume]
38. The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $25,000 [$125,000 cume]
39. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $24,500 [$125,000 cume]
40. Rescue Dawn (MGM) — $23,000 [$5.2 million cume]
41. Eye of the Dolphin (Monterrey Media) — $16,000 [$29,600 cume]
42. Right at your Door (IDP Films) — $12,600 [$22,500 cume]
43. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $9,250 [$14,600 cume]
44. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $8,600 [$16,000 cume]
45. Closing Escrow (Magnolia) — $1,100 [$3,750 cume]
46. The Hottest State (Thinkfilm) — $3,350 [$5,720 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $4,622 PTA
2. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $3,202 PTA
3. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $2,198 PTA
4. Superbad (Sony) — $2,156 PTA
5. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $2,138 PTA
6. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $1,759 PTA
7. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $1,719 PTA
8. War (Lionsgate) — $1,430 PTA
9. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $1,380 PTA
10. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $1,365 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $18.07 million [$68.6 million cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $12.12 million [$184.9 million cume]
3. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $11.79 million [$108.5 million cume]
4. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $9.98 million [$9.98 million cume]
5. War (Lionsgate) — $9.61 million [$9.61 million cume]
6. The Nanny Diaries (Universal) — $7.57 million [$7.57 million cume]
7. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $4.6 million [$173.6 million cume]
8. Stardust (Paramount) — $3.65 million [$26.1 million cume]
9. Hairspray (New Line) — $3.23 million [$107.2 million cume]
10. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $2.94 [$11.3 million cume]
12. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $2.3 million [$281 million cume]
11. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $2.14 million [$36.5 million cume]
13. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $1.88 million [$112.3 million cume]
14. Becoming Jane (Miramax) — $1.83 million [$10.9 million cume]
15. Resurrecting the Champ (Yari Film Group) — $1.71 million [$1.71 million cume]
16. Illegal Tender (Universal) — $1.32 million [$1.32 million cume]
17. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) — $1.2 million [$37.7 million cume]
18. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.06 million [$307.5 million cume]
19. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) — $1.04 million [$198.9 million cume]
20. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $1.03 million [$2.8 million cume]
21. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) — $671,500 [$11.1 million cume]
22. September Dawn (Slowhand Releasing) — $584,000 [$584,000 million cume]
23. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $578,000 [$1 million cume]
24. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $478,000 [$3.2 million cume]
25. Evan Almighty (Universal) — $309,000 [$98.9 million cume]
26. Knocked Up (Universal) — $265,000 [$147.7 million cume]
27. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) — $250,000 [$133 million cume]
28. El Cantante (Picturehouse) — $234,000 [$7.1 million cume]
29. Once (Fox Searchlight) — $218,000 [$7.6 million cume]
30. No End in Sight (Magnolia) — $183,000 [$645,000 cume]
31. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) — $161,000 [$131.3 million cume]
32. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) — $140,000 [$116.9 million cume]
33. Bratz (Lionsgate) — $139,000 [$9.3 million cume]
34. Sicko (Lionsgate/MGM) — $122,500 [$23.8 million cume]
35. Rocket Science (Picturehouse) — $102,000 [$367,000 cume]
36. Hot Rod (Paramount) — $85,000 [$13.5 million cume]
37. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) — $71,000 [$587,000 cume]
38. The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $66,500 [$147,000 cume]
39. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $65,300 [$145,300 cume]
40. Rescue Dawn (MGM) — $56,000 [$5.2 million cume]
41. Eye of the Dolphin (Monterrey Media) — $40,000 [$40,000 cume]
42. Right at your Door (IDP Films) — $32,000 [$32,000 cume]
43. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $21,000 [$21,000 cume]
44. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $20,900 [$23,000 cume]
45. The Hottest State (Thinkfilm) — $8,000 [$8,000 cume]
46. Closing Escrow (Magnolia) — $4,525 [$4,525 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $10,544 PTA
2. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) — $7,708 PTA
3. Superbad (Sony) — $6,131 PTA
4. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $5,824 PTA
5. Dedication (MGM/Weinstein) — $5,237 PTA
6. The King of Kong: A Fistfull of Quarters (Picturehouse) — $4,666 PTA
7. War (Lionsgate) — $4,221 PTA
8. Death at a Funeral (MGM) — $3,947 PTA
9. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $3,461 PTA
10. The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) — $3,330 PTA

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Posted at 12:49 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

Edward Douglas

Steve, that's kind of deceptive to consider Superbad the #3 comedy even with your addition of "after ten days of release"... Blades of Glory and Knocked Up both opened when school was in full session so they wouldn't have the Monday - Thursday business that Superbad was allowed by opening in August... neither of those movies dropped as much as Superbad did from their first to second weekend either, but to claim #3 comedy for Superbad when it's likely to lose even more ground in the next few weeks to wind up behind those two is really spinning the numbers IMO. Superbad will probably still end up with $100 million but it has a lot of competition for young male audiences over the next couple weeks and it's already showing signs of frontloading. Just my 2 cents.

Posted by: Edward Douglas | August 26, 2007 at 04:36 AM

Steve Mason

Hi Edward,

You know I love input, especially from someone who knows the business as well as you do.

I'm always looking for ways to look at the numbers in interesting ways. The fact that Superbad is rated R does limit the summer effect to some degree, but, I agree that Superbad will be giving up ground in coming weeks and will not beat Knocked Up over the long haul.

Just another way to view the performance of the movie.

For Fantasy Moguls readers, Edward is an excellent writer. Check him out at ComingSoon.net.

Mase

Posted by: Steve Mason | August 26, 2007 at 11:56 AM

Edward Douglas

Well, I just worry that some nimrod on the TV news is going to see your post and miss the "after ten days" thing and report Superbad as the #3 comedy of the year :)

Thanks for the kind words re: my stuff on CS.

Posted by: Edward Douglas | August 26, 2007 at 09:03 PM

DJ

I love everything Mr Douglas and Mr Mason have to write about in there updates on there sites cause everything keeps me more up to date on the Latest Movie tracking what bombed and what is new in the horizon.

Posted by: DJ | August 26, 2007 at 11:31 PM

Wes

Just wondering why films like Heyy Babyy, Send a Bullet and Magnificent Desolation aren't counted, especially toward PTA?

Posted by: Wes | August 27, 2007 at 11:06 PM

Marius

How come WAR is 9.82 on WKND$ BUT 0 on TOT$??
I think that there's a mistake. Please update... I just lost a rank :(

Posted by: Marius | August 29, 2007 at 08:17 AM

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