WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Rush Hour 3' slides on Saturday, revised 3-day is $51M; 'Bourne' with likely $33.33M 2nd weekend; 'Stardust,' 'Daddy Day Camp' stumble
by Steve Mason
Rush Hour 3 (New Line) dipped 8 percent from its opening day for a $17.57 million Saturday, and the reteaming of Chris Tucker, Jackie Chan and Brett Ratner appears headed for a slightly disappointing three-day opening. New Line claims that Rush Hour 3 grabbed $19.1 million on its opening day, but other studios say that the real number is closer to $18.5 million. The action-comedy will likely suffer a Sunday drop in the 18 percent range for $14.4 million or so. That should put the movie's three-day estimate right at $51 million, but it won't be a surprise if the number is adjusted downward when actuals are released Monday afternoon.
The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) continued its strong performance grabbing $13.1 million on Saturday. The Matt Damon/Paul Greengrass thriller is on target for a $33.33 million second weekend, an excellent hold. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) generated another $4.24 million, and Homer and family will likely score a third-weekend gross of $11.1M. That puts Simpsons at an estimated $152.2 million domestic.
Stardust, a $70 million fantasy from Paramount, managed only $3.32 million on its second day of release, and it will finish the weekend with approximately $8.86 million. Disney's live action Underdog was No. 5 Saturday with $2.4 million, and the family film is also fifth for the weekend with an estimated $6.44 million. The other two new wide releases are full-scale disasters. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) actually dropped Friday to Saturday for just $1.22 million. It's three-day will be in the $3.5 million range, and the five-day number will be just under $5 million. Meanwhile, Skinwalkers (After Dark/Lionsgate) limped to just under $200,000, and its opening weekend will likely be $534,000.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) -- $17.57 million [$36.6 million cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $13.1 million [$122.1 million cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $4.25 million [$148.9 million cume]
4. Stardust (Paramount) -- $3.32 million [$6.3 million cume]
5. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $2.4 million [$22.9 million cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) -- $2.37 million [$90.2 million cume]
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $2.2 million [$102 million cume]
8. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $2.11 million [$270.3 million cume]
9. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $1.53 million [$30.9 million cume]
10. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $1.32 million [$301.8 million cume]
11. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) -- $1.22 million [$3.9 million cume]
12. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $1.12 million [$3.7 million cume]
13. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $878,400 [$192.5 million cume]
14. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $717,750 [$10.2 million cume]
15. Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $540,500 [$7.1 million cume]
16. El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $509,200 [$5 million cume]
17. Les 3 P'Tits Cochons (Chrystal Films) -- $297,500 [$547,500 cume]
18. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $258,400 [$131.5 million cume]
19. Skinwalkers (Lionsgate/After Dark) -- $199,500 [$374,500 cume]
20. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $175,200 [$3.3 million cume]
21. Chak de India (Yash Raj Films) -- $164,000 [$264,000 cume]
22. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $145,700 [$97.8 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $136,950 [$6.8 million cume]
24. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $121,600 [$146.7 million cume]
25. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $119,280 [$130.7 million cume]
26. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $118,500 [$23.1 million cume]
27. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $116,590 [$321.2 million cume]
28. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $93,240 [$4.6 million cume]
29. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $89,600 [$116 million cume]
30. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $78,455 [$8.8 million cume]
31. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $74,051 [$5.2 million cume]
32. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) -- $65,330 [$112,330 cume]
33. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $62,640 [$3 million cume]
34. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $58,090 [$803,090 cume]
35. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $49,280.00 [$25.3 million cume]
36. No End in Sight (Magnolia) -- $46,620 [$195,120 cume]
37. The Ten (Thinkfilm) -- $38,130 [$259,130 cume]
38. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $30,900 [$6.9 million cume]
39. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $22,010 [$42.7 million cume]
40. Rocket Science (Picturehouse) -- $21,300 [$39,050 cume]
41. 1408 (MGM) - $19,430 [$70.8 million cume]
42. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $17,161 [$18.6 million cume]
43. This is England (IFC Films) -- $15,832 [$88,632 cume]
44. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) -- $11,660 [$140,660 cume]
45. Dans Paris (IFC Films) -- $5,314 [$9,670 cume]
46. Descent (City Lights) -- $2,373 [$5,969 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) -- $51.08 million [$51.08 million cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) -- $33.33 million [ $131.9 million cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $11.11 million [$152.2 million cume]
4. Stardust (Paramount) -- $8.86 million [$8.86 million cume]
5. Underdog (Buena Vista) -- $6.44 million [$24.7 million cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) -- $6.34 million [$92 million cume]
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $5.71 million [$103.5 million cume]
8. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $5.42 million [$272 million cume]
9. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $3.96 million [$32 million cume]
10. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) -- $3.46 million [$4.8 million cume]
11. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $3.29 million [$302.8 million cume]
12. Becoming Jane (Miramax) -- $2.97 million [$4.5 million cume]
13. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $2.27 million [$193.2 million cume]
14. Hot Rod (Paramount) -- $2.01 million [$10.7 million cume]
15. Bratz (Lionsgate) -- $1.38 million [$7.5 million cume]
16. El Cantante (Picturehouse) -- $1.27 million [$5.3 million cume]
17. Les 3 P'Tits Cochons (Chrystal Films) -- $770,625 [$770,625 cume]
18. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $621,528 [$131.7 million cume]
19. Skinwalkers (Lionsgate/After Dark) -- $534,100 [$534,100 cume]
20. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $417,840 [$3.4 million cume]
21. Chak de India (Yash Raj Films) -- $395,200 [$395,200 cume]
22. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $364,250 [$97.9 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $315,815 [$6.9 million cume]
24. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $295,640 [$146.8 million cume]
25. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $293,032 [$321.3 million cume]
26. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $292,740 [$130.8 million cume]
27. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $282,375 [$23.2 million cume]
28. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $227,102 [$4.7 million cume]
29. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $217,840 [$116.1 million cume]
30. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $190,977 [$8.9 million cume]
31. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $168,857 [$5.3 million cume]
32. 2 Days in Paris (IDP Films) -- $161,327 [$161,327 cume]
33. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $156,878 [$3.1 million cume]
34. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $141,562 [$850,000 cume]
35. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $125,312 [$25.3 million cume]
36. No End in Sight (Magnolia) -- $115,416 [$232,416 cume]
37. The Ten (Thinkfilm) -- $97,727 [$287,727 cume]
38. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $85,311 [$6.9 million cume]
39. Rocket Science (Picturehouse) -- $56,090 [$56,090 cume]
40. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $50,716 [$42.7 million cume]
41. 1408 (MGM) -- $45,653 [$70.8 million cume]
42. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $40,900 [$18.6 million cume]
43. This is England (IFC Films) -- $38,191 [$100,506 cume]
44. Arctic Tale (Paramount Vantage) -- $26,093 [$149,405 cume]
45. Dans Paris (IFC Films) -- $13,656 [$13,656 cume]
46. Descent (City Lights) -- $7,749 [$7,749 cume]
BOmojo has rush hour 3 at $19.1 nillion for friday so does that mean that the weekend should total up too about $55 million?
Posted by: A.B | August 11, 2007 at 09:30 AM
and when you say the other studios are calling it a reach, do you mean they're saying it's higher than the actual numbers??
coz don't studios usually understate their movies' performances??
Posted by: ashish | August 11, 2007 at 04:45 PM
Sorry A.B. and ashish, I just saw these questions.
Studios do underreport, unless the number is a little disappointing. Then, they pump the Friday a bit.
Box Office Mojo reported New Line's estimate, but other studilos think that the real Friday number was lower.
It looks like $51M for the 3-day, but, when actuals come out on Monday, it's possible that the it will adjust down.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | August 12, 2007 at 01:27 AM
Mase, just out of interest, what are your sources? Because you post numbers before any other website does.
Posted by: J.I. | August 12, 2007 at 09:18 AM
how many theaters did 2 days in paris play on this weekend? was wondering how it did PTA wise.
Posted by: curious | August 12, 2007 at 09:35 AM
I was wondering about the PTA race this weekend too Mase. Curious, You can find the theater count on boxofficemojo.com.
Posted by: Tye Copeland | August 12, 2007 at 10:24 AM
Well , it looks like "2 Days in Paris" was #1 in PTA.
So far this is what it looks in Pta this weekend .
#1 - 2 Days in Paris
#2 - Rush Hour 3
#3 - Rocket Science
#4 - Bourne Ultimatium
#5 - Dans Paris
Posted by: slight | August 12, 2007 at 11:10 AM