THE SCORECARD: Average of Seven "Expert" Sources Calls for $22.12M for 'Halloween; 'Superbad' in Second; 'Balls' Small with $12.21M; 'Death Sentence' Already Dead
by Steve Mason
Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the movie-going public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me — and the rest of the box office "authorities" — humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.
Please note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, Aug. 31), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and three-day projections available anywhere, and, as proven virtually every week, they are generally quite accurate.
This week, we're posting the predictions of six "expert" sources plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages. Everyone agrees that Halloween (MGM/Weinstein), the remake of the 1978 John Carpenter classic, will easily win the weekend. My prediction of $25.7 million is the highest on the board, with Nicole Sperling from Entertainment Weekly on the low end at $19.5 million. The "expert" average for the Rob Zombie horror flick is $22.15 million, which would be enough for a new four-day Labor Day weekend record.
The "experts" are calling for holdover sensation Superbad (Sony) to finish second with $13.35 million followed by the new Balls of Fury (Rogue) at $12.21 million. As for Death Sentence (20th Century Fox), James Wan's thriller starring Kevin Bacon — everyone agrees that it is already dead. My call of $3.6 million for the four-day weekend is the lowest on the board, but Box Office Report sees it getting as high as $7.5 million.
Here are the weekend box office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Halloween — $25.7 million
2. Superbad — $13.1 million
3. Balls of Fury — $12.9 million [$15.9 million for six days]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum — $9.7 million
5. Rush Hour 3 — $8.5 million
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday — $5.4 million
7. WAR — $4.8 million
8. The Nanny Diaries — $4.7 million
9. Death Sentence — $3.6 million
10. The Simpsons Movie — $2.8 million
Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Halloween — $22.4 million
2. Superbad — $13.5 million
3. Balls of Fury — $11.8M
4. Mr. Bean's Holiday — $10.3 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum — $9.7 million
6. Rush Hour 3 — $7.9 million
7. Death Sentence — $6.4 million
8. WAR — $5.8 million
9. The Nanny Diaries — $5.3 million
10. The Simpsons Movie — $3.3 million
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Halloween — $20 million
2. Balls of Fury — $14 million
3. Superbad — $13.5 million
4. The Bourne Ultimatum — $11 million
5. Rush Hour 3 — $9 million
* Death Sentence — $7 million
Box Office Report
1. Halloween — $22 million
2. Superbad — $15 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum — $11 million
4. Balls of Fury — $10.5 million
5. Rush Hour 3 — $10 million
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday — $8 million
7. Death Sentence — $7.5 million
8. WAR — $6.5 million
9. The Nanny Diaries — $6 million
10. The Simpsons Movie — $4 million
Nicole Sperling, Entertainment Weekly
1. Halloween — $19.5 million
2. Balls of Fury — $13 million
3. Superbad — $12 million
4. The Bourne Ultimatum — $11 million
5. Rush Hour 3 — $9 million
* Death Sentence — $6.5 million
Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Halloween — $21.4 million
2. Superbad — $12.6 million
3. Balls of Fury — $10.5M
4. The Bourne Ultimatum — $9.1 million
5. Rush Hour 3 — $8.2 million
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday — $6.9 million
7. War — $5.7 million
8. Death Sentence — $5.4 million
9. The Nanny Diaries — $4.8 million
10. The Simpsons Movie — $2.9 million
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Halloween — $24.1 million
2. Superbad — $13.8 million
3. Balls of Fury — $12.8M
4. The Bourne Ultimatum — $10.1 million
5. Rush Hour 3 — $8.4 million
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday — $7.3 million
7. Death Sentence — $7.2 million
8. War — $6.1 million
9. The Nanny Diaries — $5.3 million
10. The Simpsons Movie — $3.8 million
BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $22.15 million
2. Superbad (Sony) — $13.35 million
3. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $12.21M
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $10.22 million
5. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $8.71 million
6. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $7.58 million
7. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $6.22 million
8. War (Lionsgate) — $5.78 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $5.22 million
10. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $3.36 million
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