THE SCORECARD: Average of 7 "expert" sources calls for $25.2M for 'Superbad'; 57 percent drop predicted for 'Rush Hour 3'; Prognosticators call for $11.95M for 'Invasion' and just $4.3M for 'Legion'
by Steve Mason
Almost every week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the movie-going public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me — and the rest of the box office "authorities" — humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.
Please Note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, Aug. 17), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and weekend projections available anywhere, and they are generally quite accurate.
This week, we're posting the predictions of six "expert" sources plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages (World of KJ, Lee's Movie Info and Box Office Psychics hadn't posted as of 2:30 p.m., Pacific, and there was no prediction this week for Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo). Superbad (Sony) is everyone's choice for No. 1, with an average prediction of $25.2 million. My prediction on Fantasy Moguls is on the high end at $27.5 million while Box Office Report forecasts a softer $22 million. Everyone expects a monstrous drop for Rush Hour 3 (New Line), with the average prediction at $21.3 million. That would be an approximate 57 percent drop from opening weekend. Meanwhile, there is wide agreement that The Invasion from Warner Bros. will be a flop (average prediction of $11.95 million) and that The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) will be a disaster (the average of all predictions is just $4.3 million).
Here are the weekend box office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Superbad (Sony) — $27.5 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $22 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $19.3 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $11 million
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $5.6 million
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $5.25 million
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $4.3 million
8. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.75 million
9. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $3.5 million
10. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $3.25 million
Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Superbad (Sony) — $26.4 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $22.6 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $18.3 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $10.5 million
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $5.8 million
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $5.5 million
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $4.3 million
8. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $3.8 million
9. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.7 million
10. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $3.3 million
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Superbad (Sony) — $25 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $22 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $18 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $13 million
* The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $6 million
Box Office Report
1. Superbad (Sony) — $22 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $19 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $18 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $12 million
5. Stardust (Paramount) — $5.8M
6. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $5.5 million
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $4.3 million
8. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $4 million
9. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $3.5 million
10. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $3.3 million
10. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $3.3 million
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Superbad (Sony) — $24.4 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $21.4 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $17.8 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $14.5 million
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $6.5 million
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $5.5 million
7. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $5.1 million
8. Hairspray (New Line) — $4.3 million
9. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $3.6 million
10. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $3.2M
Nicole Sperling, Entertainment Weekly
1. Superbad (Sony) — $24 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $20 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $18 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $13 million
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $6 million
Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Superbad (Sony) — $27.1 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $22.3 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $16.3 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $9.7 million
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $5.5 million
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $4.7 million
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $4.1 million
8. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $3.5 million
9. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.3 million
10. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $3.2 million
BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Superbad (Sony) — $25.2 million
2. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $21.32 million
3. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $17.95 million
4. The Invasion (Warner Bros.) — $11.95 million
5. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) — $5.81 million
6. Stardust (Paramount) — $5.35 million
7. Hairspray (New Line) — $4.26 million
8. The Last Legion (MGM/Weinstein) — $4.3 million
9. Underdog (Buena Vista) — $2.98 million
10. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) — $3.28M
11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) — $3.23 million
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