There aren't a lot of biggies out there in new August-October leagues, but as the holiday season returns, so will the budget busters -- for catchiness' sake, let's call 'em Moguls Monsters. May-July Box Office MOguls leagues held quite a few guzzling Hummers, if you will. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($64), Shrek the Third ($63) and Spider-Man 3 ($57) all presented a quick way to use up most of your available funds. By the end of game play on July 29, these films had earned $307 million, $319 million and $336 million, respectively.

That's a big chunk of any slate's earnings, to be sure ... but for less money, one could've taken two movies from the ethanol hybrid fleet and come out ahead. In that same May-July time frame, Transformers and even a film considered a flop, Evan Almighty, combined for $380 million (and would only have cost the studio owner $55). And there were better bargains out there, like:

• Knocked Up, which in addition to delivering a baby, also delivered $145 million for just $17
• Live Free or Die Hard, which blew up to $125 million at a price of just $10
• The Simpsons Movie, which provided a final-weekend boost of $74 million for just $6

Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but it would appear that dividing up your budget is the way to go. For the record, too, the winners of both May-July Box Office leagues I participated in used this strategy. One such winner, Igore, amassed an astounding $931 million with his slate. Well done! (If you're wondering which combination of films provided this total, just shoot me an email.) Still, might it have been worth it to pick up a Moguls Monster in other seasons, even if it ran you a whopping $75, as both Transformers and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix did in July-September Box Office leagues? Here's a pros and cons breakdown:

PROS
• Higher priced movies often are released earlier in the season, and they thus have more time to earn money (and, for Ultimate Movie Moguls players, PTA and Top 5 points) before the season ends than do later releases.
• Movies are priced highly because they're expected to easily outperform much of the competition. A high price tag can mean that the film is one of the only sure things in a season full of maybes.
• Being forced to search out more bargain bin movies to complement your Moguls Monster could increase your chances of finding that $2 sleeper, like 1408 -- $70 million for $2?! Awesome!

CONS
• Because big films earn the lion's share of their money and score virtually all their Top 5 and PTA points in the first 2-3 weekends, a movie that's only in play for four weekends is still a pretty good call. If there's only a weekend or two before the season ends, be wary (that was the one strike against The Simpsons Movie), but 3 or 4 weekends on the market is really all the big films need to make a chunk of cash. The final number for a cutoff movie may not be as big as the gross for the movie released on the first day of the season, but if it can manage even 75% of that, for half the cost, that makes it well worth it.
• A high price tag only means that if expectations AREN'T met, the movie's belly flop stings a bit more. What's the saying, "The bigger they are, the harder they fall?" It also leaves much less room to reassess your studio and make some changes, should you decide to.
• Being frugal leaves you more room for mid-priced films: You know, the ones that you know will be successful without being megahits. (For example, Ocean's Thirteen: $18 cost, $115 million gross in May-July Box Office leagues. Or Rush Hour 3: it costs $17 in June-August leagues and should easily top $100 million.) This means that you don't have to rely on cheap movies and hope for a surprise breakout hit.
• Quite simply, just as investing all your money in one company on the stock market would be taking a giant risk, investing most of your budget in one film is much more risky than splitting it up amongst two or three mid-priced ones with strong performance potential. The "what if" factor holds a lot of significance.

In leagues where the highest-priced movie doesn't even take up half your budget, the same logic applies, but it's less of a risk. The Heartbreak Kid for $44 (Ultimate) and The Bourne Ultimatum for $36 (Box Office) in August-October leagues are far less problematic, for example, than the biggies of past seasons. Especially where Bourne is concerned -- it's already made $100 million and should top $150 million by the time the week is through.

So which side of the fence am I on? Well, now that I've seen the results of a full season, I'm inclined to say that avoiding the Moguls Monsters is a good strategy. The Monsters may perform on a big scale, but the risk seems to generally be not worth the reward. It makes even more sense to split up your budget in Ultimate leagues: If you can manage to pick up two movies for less than what a Monster would cost and still reap a larger gross, then you'll almost certainly come away with more Top 5 and PTA points. Two major releases combined are almost certain to spend more time in the Top 5 than one film alone.

Mister Informative is trying to win a July-September Box Office league without Transformers or Harry Potter, and an August-October Box Office league without The Bourne Ultimatum. Think he can do it? Send him your moral support at misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.