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August 07, 2007

TIP OF THE WEEK: Getting the Most out of Those Final Few August-October Dollars

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls, and welcome to yet another Tip of the Week. August-October leagues have just gotten underway, so in this column, I'm gathering together my spare change and taking a look at movies that will only cost you $2. After you've completed most of your slate, you may be looking for a filler movie with the few dollars you have left over -- that's where my latest shopping list come in. A few of these films are longer shots than others, and some are almost certainly pricing mistakes, but in any case, spending $2 on these films won't hurt your slate too much even if they don't perform up to expectations.

First on my list is the latest Judd Apatow project, Superbad (Aug. 17), which can be had for $2 in August-October Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues. Projections are for $55 million gross, 2 PTA points, 6 Top 5 points, and a 6.7 IMDb score. I suspect some of those numbers are far too low; after Knocked Up and The 40-Year-Old Virgin both topped $100 million, Superbad should certainly top $60 million, and it will probably go even higher than that. Notable as well is that Knocked Up currently has an IMDb score or 8.1, and The 40-Year-Old Virgin is at 7.5. Superbad, to be fair, looks like a movie of lesser caliber than the other two ... but people love Judd Apatow's work and so I think the rating will still be above 7. Not bad at all for a $2 pick, especially when identically priced movies include Bratz, with its IMDb rating of 2.5 as of Aug. 7, and Daddy Day Camp, which will surely end up in that neighborhood as well.

September brings two westerns to the big screen, and one of them, 3:10 to Yuma (Sept. 7) is a $2 bargain in Box Office Moguls leagues. Given that the film will have two months to earn before the season ends, the projected take of $31 million is definitely possible, even if the Sept. 7 opening is only as "wide" as that of fellow Lionsgate release Bratz (1,500 screens). Russell Crowe is a draw for sure, and after Batman Begins and The Prestige, so is Christian Bale. The opening weekend pits it against Shoot 'Em Up, which will provide steep competition for the attention of male moviegoers, but that alone won't bury it. Also worth nothing: James Mangold, director of Walk the Line, is at the helm. Definitely worth taking a flyer on.

If everyone who enjoys the music of The Beatles turns out for Across the Universe (Sept. 14), then its $2 price in Box Office leagues will have been a steal indeed. It's a musical romance set in the '60s, but instead of using original songs, every musical interlude is a Beatles tune. The project has had its share of troubles and directorial disagreements, and it is sort of being "dumped" in September, but there isn't a whole lot of surefire date movie material around its release (The Nanny Diaries comes three weeks earlier, and the rest of September is rife with guy stuff like the aforementioned Shoot 'Em Up and 3:10 to Yuma, as well as The Kingdom, Mr. Woodcock and Good Luck Chuck.) Based on that, and again, on the almost universal appeal of The Beatles, this could be a good $2 Box Office surprise. Fairly recent test screenings of a shortened, 105-minute cut scored 86 percent positive (earlier screenings with longer versions had been mostly negative), so there's some good news there as well.

A smaller film that might be worth taking a shot on in Ultimate leagues is the indie comedy I'll Believe You (Sept. 28). Though it has only a few votes, its IMDb user rating currently sits at an astronomical 8.9, far above the projected 5.1. Its opening weekend is crowded with PTA hopefuls (among them Ang Lee's Lust, Caution), but this one just might be able to squeak out a PTA point as well. The cast features Daily Show correspondents Ed Helms and Mo Rocca, and director Paul Francis Sullivan was at one time a Daily Show producer, so I'm optimistic that the film will actually be pretty funny. The drawback is that box office and Top 5 points will probably be pretty minimal -- but if you're lagging in the IMDb category, then this film could potentially raise your spirits a bit.

Both my editor and I are convinced that pricing The Heartbreak Kid (Oct. 5) at $2 in Box Office leagues is simply a mistake. True, it only has four weekends on the market before the season ends, but that was also thought to be an issue with Transformers, which made $284 million in a month. The Heartbreak Kid won't rake in that kind of dough, but it's the precise type of awkward comedy that Ben Stiller excels at, and it's from the Farrelly brothers, who, though they've had a few recent misses (like Stuck on You), also helmed successes Fever Pitch ($42 million), Shallow Hal ($70 million) and, back in the day, Me, Myself & Irene ($90 million). Their biggest hit, also starring Stiller, was There's Something About Mary, which managed $76 million in its first month en route to an overall take of $176 million. The trailer doesn't exactly crack me up, but The Heartbreak Kid looks to follow along those lines, and it could end up being one of the biggest films of the fall/winter ... for just $2.

Another smaller film that might help you out in an Ultimate league is The Final Season (Oct. 12). It's directed by The Sandlot team captain David M. Evans, and chronicles a small high school baseball team in Norway, Iowa as they attempt to win a 20th straight state championship despite two big hurdles: a new coach, and knowing that it's their final season before the school is merged into a larger district. It's a feel-good sports story, so it should play fairly well. Iowa theaters might be a shade more likely to book it (just like a few years ago, when The Godfather of Green Bay played at many multiplexes in eastern Wisconsin), and I expect good regional business and generally good reviews. Nationwide numbers certainly won't be lofty, but this could be a candidate for a good cheap IMDb score boost, if you're in need of that when October rolls around.

It's a breakout year for Timothy Olyphant, with a villainous turn in Live Free or Die Hard and a starring role in video game adaptation Hitman (Oct. 12). (Interesting tidbit: Vin Diesel and Jason Statham were each rumored to be playing Agent 47 at one time.) Video game movies are often big misses, but heck, Uwe Boll is still employed. (He even has two films slated for 2008, not to mention the abomination that will be Bloodrayne 2, which is apparently aiming to be a vampire ... western? Seriously, check out the trailer. You'll laugh.) And every once in a while, a video game flick breaks out. Hitman could be one such example. It's playing as an action flick, (a la The Professional or, for a more recent comparison, Crank or Transporter 2) with politics and espionage worked in. (I'll be honest, the summary on IMDb almost makes it sound Bourne-like. As if.) It's a great slate-filling $2 pick in Box Office leagues.

The presence of writer/director Ben Affleck makes me waver a bit on recommending this next film, but since he's not acting, here ya go. After all, it's his screenplay writing (with Matt Damon, for Good Will Hunting) that won him his Oscar. (In retrospect, can you believe that, up until last year, it was Ben Affleck 1, Scorsese 0, in the filmmaking Oscars column?) At any rate, Gone Baby Gone (Oct. 19) can be had for $2 in Box Office leagues and, depending on how wide the release is, the projected $22 million is certainly within reach. Good Will Hunting made $28 million in two weeks, which is the same amount of time Gone Baby Gone has, so it's doable, for sure. However, Miramax might angle for a more awards-y, The Queen-style release pattern, in which case box office results would be minimal. Morgan Freeman, Ed Harris and Casey Affleck make for an excellent cast (with this movie and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, it could be a breakout fall for Casey Affleck). This one's not a guaranteed hit, but it's definitely a possible sleeper.

Another movie that's sort of lurking, just waiting to break out, is 30 Days of Night (Oct. 19) a $2 pickup in Box Office leagues. It'll hope to piggyback on the graphic novel success of Sin City and 300, and it may do so. Sam Raimi, who helped to make The Grudge a surprise hit, is producing, so you can bet the scares will be pretty good. Unlike Sin City or 300, however, 30 Days of Night doesn't look to be stylized at all, so the visual aspect will be, well, just like any other movie. I also have my doubts about Josh Hartnett, but I think the movie can make its projected $22 million in two weeks, possibly even get to the $30 million mark, and that's a great contribution from a $2 pick.

If you're aiming for just a quick box office boost at the end of the season, then go for $2 pick (Box Office Leagues only) Saw IV (Oct. 26). It could make you $20 million in that first and only Moguls-qualifying weekend, though even that isn't a certainty, given the failure of similarly grisly films  all year long (The Hills Have Eyes 2, Hostel II, Captivity, etc.). I don't really like any of the Saw films, but I know some people do, and as cheap as they are to make, it's no wonder Lionsgate keeps pumping 'em out. This one'll earn you some quick dough at the end of the season, though I tend to think almost all of the other Box Office bargains I've mentioned are better picks.

Other $2 possibilities in Box Office leagues are Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Oct. 12), in which Cate Blanchett reprises her role as Queen Elizabeth that earned her an Oscar nomination in 1998, and even December Boys (Sept. 14), Daniel Radcliffe's first film project since he began the Harry Potter films. Depending on how Warner Independent handles the expansion of December Boys, (especially if it's warmly received) it could bring in a decent amount of cash (if it gets wide enough, certainly more than the projected $4 million.) $3 picks Lust, Caution (Sep. 28) in Box Office leagues or Good Luck Chuck (Sep. 21) in Ultimate leagues ain't too bad either.

Remember that, whatever happens with your $2 movies, they only cost $2. Almost any success they have at all is pretty much icing on the cake. (Mmm, icing on the cake ...) Until next week, good luck!

Mister Informative is cranking out movie ideas like the Awesome-O 4000 from South Park. How about this one: We'll combine two of this summer's hits, and make both a sequel and another installment of an old-time classic. It'll star Bruce Willis, and we'll call it Hairspray 2: Dye Hard. Think Bruce will do his own singing? (Two words: Hudson Hawk.) Studio execs, send your bids to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.

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Posted at 08:41 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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