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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

September 08, 2007

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: '3:10 to Yuma' Plugs 'Shoot 'Em Up'!; Crowe and Bale with $5M-plus Friday, Headed for $15M-plus for Three-Day; 'Halloween' Down 72 percent for the Weekend, but Still Second; 'Shoot 'Em Up' ($1.9M Friday) and 'Solomon Brothers' Tank

by Steve Mason

Oscar winner Russell Crowe and Batman Begins star Christian Bale have lassoed the Friday box office crown, and 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) will ride away with a surprisingly easy three-day weekend win. The James Mangold-directed remake of the classic Western of the same name grabbed just over $5 million on Friday, and appears headed for a weekend of $15.15 million. If the number holds, 3:10 to Yuma will have delivered the second-best three-day opening for a Western in the past 20 years. (For the record, I am not including Shanghai Noon, which doesn't feel like part of this genre.)

TOP 10 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR WESTERNS RELEASED IN THE PAST 20 YEARS
1. Maverick (1990) — $17.2 million
2. 3:10 to Yuma (2007) — $15.15 million (Projected)
3. Unforgiven (1992) — $15 million
4. Open Range (2003) — $14 million
5. The Missing (2003) — $10.8 million
6. Young Guns II (1990) — $8 million
7. Wyatt Earp (1994) — $7.5 million
8. Young Guns (1988) — $7 million
9. The Quick & the Dead (1995) — $6.5 million
10. Posse (1993) — $5 million

Michael Myers, as expected, has no legs. After a $3 million take on Friday, the slasher flick Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) will limp to a meager $8.55 million weekend. That's a huge fall of 72 percent or so from its opening three-day (although, to be fair, that was during a four-day weekend, which typically means a very strong Sunday). Still, enough blood will flow for Rob Zombie's remake/reinvention to hold on to second place for the weekend.

By Monday morning, Superbad (Sony) will have passed the $100 million mark. The Judd Apatow-produced comedy generated $2.2 million in Friday ticket sales, which should translate to a $7.37 million weekend. Meanwhile, Jason Bourne will finish No. 4 for the three-day, and The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) will have surpassed $210 million by the end of the weekend. The Paul Greengrass-directed thriller added $1.7 million on Friday (No. 5 for the day), but it should reach an estimated $6.11 million for the three-day.

Rough weekend for the two other wide studio releases. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line), the super-charged action pic starring Clive Owen and Paul Giamatti, has been crushed by the male-driven 3:10 to Yuma. It was No. 4 for the day with about $1.96 million, but will finish a disappointing fifth for the three-day. Shoot 'Em Up will wrap up the frame at $5.73 million or so. Sony/Screen Gems dumped a misguided comedy called The Brothers Solomon on 700 screens, and it may be on DVD by next weekend after a Friday per-theatre average of just $271 for $190,000 total. It's headed for a weekend of a mere $550,000.

Among new limited releases, the Tibetan fantasy film Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) set the pace on Friday with $3,147 on its single screen. We'll see how it holds through the weekend, but for now, I'm tentatively awarding it the weekend PTA crown with about $11,000. I'm looking for IDP Films's long-shelved Fierce People to finish the weekend at No. 2 in PTA at just under $11,000, followed by an $8,000 PTA for The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) starring Richrd Gere. Thinkfilm's Sundance-winning doc In the Shadow of the Moon from Ron Howard will likely finish 4th with $7,000, and 3:10 to Yuma should round out the Top 5.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $5.05 million, $1,904 PTA [$5.05 million cume]
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $3 million, $863 PTA [$37.1 million cume]
3. Superbad (Sony) — $2.2 million, $717 PTA [$97.8 million cume]
4. NEW Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $1.96 million, $931 PTA [$1.96 million cume]
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $1.7 million, $517 PTA [$206.3 million cume]
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $1.45 million, $471 PTA [$20 million cume]
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $1.2 million, $446 PTA [$125 million cume]
8. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $900,000, $368 PTA [$18.5 million cume]
9. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $750,000, $422 PTA [$22.4 million cume
10. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $440,000, $240 PTA [$6.7 million cume]
NEW The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $190,000, $271 PTA [$190,000 cume]
NEW Hatchet (Anchor Bay) — $43,625, $532 PTA [$43,625 cume]
NEW The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — $8,984, $2,246 PTA [$8,984 cume]
NEW In the Shadow of the Moon (Thinkfilm) — $7,844, $1,961 PTA [$7,844 cume]
NEW The Bubble (Strand Releasing) — $7,480, $748 PTA [$7,480 cume]
NEW Fierce People (IDP Releasing) — $6,474, $3,237 PTA [$6,474 cume]
NEW Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — $3,147, $3,147 PTA [$3,147 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $15.15 million, $5,713 PTA [$15.15 million cume]
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $8.55 million, $2,460 PTA [$42.7 million cume]
3. Superbad (Sony) — $7.37 million, $2,401 PTA [$103 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $6.11 million, $1,857 PTA [$210.7 million cume]
5. NEW Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $5.73 million, $2,719 PTA [$5.73 million cume]
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $4.27 million, $1,388 PTA [$22.8 million cume]
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4 million, $1,486 PTA [$127.8 million cume]
8. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $2.93 million, $1,200 PTA [$20.6 million cume
9. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $2.44 million, $1,375 PTA [$24.1 million cume]
10. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $1.45 million, $793, $7.7 million cume]
NEW The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $550,000, $786 PTA [$550,000 cume]
NEW Hatchet (Anchor Bay) — $148,000, $1,809 PTA [$148,000 cume]
NEW The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — $32,000, $8,000 PTA [$32,000 cume]
NEW In the Shadow of the Moon (Thinkfilm) — $28,000, $7,000 PTA [$28,000 cume]
NEW The Bubble (Strand Releasing) — $26,000, $2,600 PTA [$26,000 cume]
NEW Fierce People (IDP Releasing) — $21,500, $10,750 PTA [$21,500 cume]
NEW Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — $11,000, $11,000 PTA [$11,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — $11,000 PTA
2. NEW Fierce People (IDP Releasing) — $10,750 PTA
3. NEW The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — $8,000 PTA
4. NEW In the Shadow of the Moon (Thinkfilm) — $7,000 PTA
5. NEW 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $5,713 PTA
6. NEW Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $2,719 PTA
7. NEW The Bubble (Strand Releasing) — $2,600 PTA
8. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $2,460 PTA
9. Superbad (Sony) — $2,401 PTA
10. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $1,857 PTA

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Posted at 12:24 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

hey mase, if your predictions have bourne placing ahead of shoot em up (mason's numbers column), how come the FM numbers have shoot em up in 4th?? aren't these your predictions above??

:S

Posted by: ashish | September 08, 2007 at 11:14 AM

oops, my bad, i got 3-day and friday mixed up....so you think bourne will overtake shoot em up over the course of the weekend??

Posted by: ashish | September 08, 2007 at 11:16 AM

Mase, I find your one-day PTA Top 10 highly suspect. You have seven brand-new movies at the top and three wide-release holdover rounding it out. I find it difficult, nay, impossible, that this week's top 10 will not include, The Nines, Deep Water, 2 Days in Paris or Manda Bala, titles which have owned that chart in the last few weeks.

Posted by: Shrykespeare | September 08, 2007 at 11:53 AM

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