The weekend of Oct. 12 will bring the usual mixed bag of releases: a historical drama, a crime drama, an adult comedy-drama, an uplifting sports story and a horror movie featuring an abnormally large member of the animal kingdom. On the surface, most of these films look eminently watchable (see if you can guess which one doesn't), but only a couple have an above-average chance of making your roster look better. There's a lot of ground to cover, so let's not dally.

In 1998, Elizabeth racked up seven Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Cinematography and Best Costume Design (only one win, though, for Best Makeup). Considering the genre and its "chick flick" label, it still made an impressive $30 million in revenues, over a six-month period. Now Cate Blanchett attempts to both relive and repeat history with Elizabeth: The Golden Age, a film that will probably not be able to clear the (very high) bar set by its predecessor.

Apart from Cate, the inestimable Geoffrey Rush also returns, as well as director Shekhar Kapur and writer Michael Hirst, which you would expect to mean that we'd get an even better product this time around. And adding Clive Owen to the mix should only help, right? Well, the current IMDb User Rating for this film, a staggering 8.9, would seem to bear that out. But don't get stars in your eyes, folks ... early reviews of this film seem to indicate that it's all sizzle and no steak.

Emmanuel Levy calls this film "overbaked and shallow, with anachronistic and often embarrassing dialogue." Todd McCarthy of Variety says it "lacks any sense of occasion relative to the pageant it attempts to depict." Even the positive reviews, most of which laud the way the film was shot and acted, say that Golden Age is "a cliché-filled period film that carries very little weight or emotional impact" (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon.net). Yowch.

From what I've heard, Cate is far more likely to receive an Academy Award nomination for her stark portrayal of Bob Dylan in the upcoming I'm Not There than for this. Yes, the Academy may choose to nominate her twice, but I seriously doubt it. To put it mildly, I think Fantasy Moguls's estimate that this film will make $41 million is greatly overblown. Five PTA points and three Top 5 points are also predicted; depending on its release size, one of these two prognostications may come true, but certainly not both. If you're thinking about spending $15 on this film for your Box Office league, I think you'd do better to throw in a couple of extra bucks for Saw IV or Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium. And as for the $24 you'd shell out for Liz in Ultimate, I think there are much better choices, such as Rendition or Darfur Now.

Depending on its ad campaign (which has already started), I much prefer the chances of We Own the Night to top its predicted Moguls stats. For one thing, you've got two lead actors coming off of highly-acclaimed, Oscar-nominated performances: Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line, and Mark Wahlberg for The Departed. They are joined by Robert Duvall, a previous Oscar winner who is still greatly respected and trying to erase the stench left by Lucky You.

Duvall, who plays the patriarch of the family, is a decorated policeman who no doubt encouraged his sons to follow in his footsteps; while son Joseph (Wahlberg) did indeed join the NYPD, son Bobby (Phoenix) instead chose to turn his back on his family and became the manager of a nightclub/disco, with occasional forays into illegal territories ... not surprising, given that the owner is a Russian Mafioso. You can probably guess how it plays out from there. Bobby is forced to choose between his wealth/lifestyle/job and his family when the two worlds collide, with very severe consequences. From the reviews I've read, the acting talent present is more than adequate to carry the film, and it should be more than enough to give Night a decent showing at the ticket counters. Unfortunately, that seems to be all this film has going for it, as the plot and execution of the script have taken some harsh hits in those same reviews.

Heartbreak Kid is almost sure to repeat as the box office champ for a second straight weekend Oct. 12-14, and it's anybody's guess what will end up at No. 2 ... but I'd give Night the edge over Elizabeth due to its broader fan base. It's predicted to get no PTA points, only one Top 5 point, and an IMDb number of 7.2. I actually think that it could produce as many as seven Top 5 points, and probably no fewer than three. For similarly-priced Ultimate fare, I'd say it's either this or Dan in Real Life, which is much more of a PTA threat. As for Box Office ($7), you could go with 30 Days of Night, Gone Baby Gone or The Dark Is Rising for virtually the same amount of money, so take your pick as to which one will bring you the most green. (Hint: Eskimo vampires.)

An interesting conundrum ... Tyler Perry's plays have, for the most part, been hits. His movies, near as I can figure, have been successes, if modest ones. His current TV show, House of Payne, is getting very reasonable ratings. And his latest outing in theaters, Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?, seems poised to follow his pattern of quality adult-themed films. So, why, oh why, are people so quick to put him down?

I mean, his last two releases, Madea's Family Reunion (which made $63 million in early 2006) and Daddy's Little Girls (which made $31 million in the early part of this year) would seem to qualify as, if not rousing successes, certainly not failures either. Dude's a Moguls workhorse ... at least until you look at his films' User Ratings. I mean, wow. MFR's current rating is 3.6, and DLG's is a miserable 3.1. And this seems to bear out a very disturbing trend in IMDb's User Ratings when it comes to "African-American" movies. For example: Are We There Yet? is 4.2, but made $82 million in 2005, and its sequel, Are We Done Yet? pulled in nearly $50 million despite its even more wretched rating of 2.6. Stomp the Yard had a tremendous opening weekend of $25 million despite opening in the frozen wasteland of January, but only managed a rating of 3.1. Norbit nearly cracked $100 million, but its rating was a mere 3.6. Even I Think I Love My Wife, by all accounts a well-written, thoughtfully-acted film featuring respected comic Chris Rock, scooched by with only a 5.6. There are many more examples, but I think you get my point.

Now, far be it for me to poo-poo IMDb's system, but methinks something is a mite fishy in this department. Yes, the overall quality of many of the films listed above is undoubtedly in question, but I can't help but wonder if there might be something else going on. What all this means to you, as a Moguls player is this: pick this film at your own risk, which is very high. Given this week's fairly weak schedule, Why Did I Get Married? could very well end up netting some Top 5 points, and perhaps as many as $30 million before all is said and done. But I would be very surprised if this particular film broke the drought currently being suffered by inarguably "black" movies, which is a shame because ... how long will it be before drought becomes precedent?

In the small town of Norway, Iowa, baseball is the local religion, so much so that the local high school team was able to take the state championship in 19 of 23 years. However, the townsfolk are shocked when the state government decides to merge Norway High with a larger school, effective after the current season ("current" being in 1991). The question is: can the son of the beloved long-time coach rally his team for an unprecedented 20th championship? Such is the true story told in The Final Season, starring Lord of the Rings alum Sean Astin as Kent Stock, who puts his life on hold to fulfill his father's (and his community's) legacy.

It's not often that I critique a movie without having seen the trailer, but I'm afraid that's the case here, as I have been unable to find one for this film (one that's compatible with my computer's antiquated operating system, anyway ... phooey), so all I have to go on is what's on paper. Season was fairly well-received at the Tribeca Film Festival in late April, and the impression I get from reading reviews is that it is an upbeat, feel-good sort of movie, with some solid performances by Astin as well as cast members Tom Arnold, Powers Boothe and Rachael Leigh Cook.

Uplifting sports movies are always a fun watch, but this film has all the makings of a "wait until DVD" film. Never mind that there have been so many "inspirational" sports films in the last few years, the total lack of hype tells me that this title, good intentions aside, will disappear quietly into the night ... unless you live in Norway, Iowa, where this film will probably become the No. 1 movie of all time. (Of course, before you get excited, remember that this is a town with all of 600 or so residents.) $2 in Ultimate and $3 in Box Office is all it will cost you, but then, nothing priced this low is going to bring you big bucks anyway.

Last, and most certainly least, we have Rogue. Having already seen two "giant croc" films this year (Primeval and the Sci-Fi Channel's mega-lame Supergator, which I swear I only watched just to see what Kelly McGillis looks like these days), I think my threshold for crap like this has been more than met. This particular exercise in futility takes place in the land Down Under, and it stars Michael Vartan (no doubt seriously pining for his  days on Alias) and Radha Mitchell (sporting the least convincing Aussie accent since Jim Carrey's in Dumb and Dumber).

As I did with The Nanny Diaries a few weeks ago, I'm going to dig into the annals and excavate a quote from our very own Nicodemus, who shared his thoughts about this film ... all the way back on March 22: "Exactly what makes Rogue deserving of a theatrical release, much less a wide release, beats the heck out of me. This flick will be death-rolled in a hurry; it's not even bad enough to be camp, much less good camp. If you're really, really in the mood for gripping entertainment about killer crocs, go rent Crocodile Dundee, or turn on something with the late, great Steve Irwin in it, or, hell, dig up Krocodylus. If that doesn't quell your Aussie craving, then pop in Finding Nemo, or The Dish, or watch an Outback Steak House commercial. Anything but this. Save yourself. I suppose it could make as much as $10 million at the box office; no other considerations are worth examining. Guppy."

Fantasy Moguls predicts no points, no points, terrible ratings, and not many bucks, but you already knew that, didn't you? Even as a bottom-feeder (heh), this title has tons of alternatives that are better; even, God help me, Goal 2: Living the Dream. Sheesh.

In Memoriam: When I was a kid growing up in the mid-70's, one of my favorite after-school TV programs was the old Match Game show. Granted, I didn't get a lot of the "adult" innuendo, but I thought that it was a lot of fun to watch, and the interplay between the contestants, Gene Rayburn (the Rod-Serling-meets-Ronald-Reagan host) and the six-member panel of celebrities which, from beginning to end, included Richard Dawson, Brett Somers and Charles Nelson Reilly. Brett and Charles always sat next to each other, and the way they played off of each other, hand to God, I really truly thought they were married. Their constant jibes and digs at each other had this eight-year-old in stitches on a daily basis. Brett, with her gravelly three-pack-a-day voice, and Charles, who looked like Steve Allen had really let himself go and had a voice like a gay carnival barker, sadly, both passed away recently. Charles on May 25, and Brett just last week (Sept. 15). I don't know if they're still re-running the old episodes on the Game Show Network, but if you have occasion, check it out, it really is classic TV at its classic-est.

Well, that about does it for this week. Please return one week hither, when I will shine a flashlight in the eyes of five more releases, set for the weekend of Oct. 19: Oscar hopeful Jake Gyllenhaal teams up with Oscar winners Reese Witherspoon, Alan Arkin and Meryl Streep for post-9/11 drama Rendition; Halle Berry pairs up with fellow Oscar-winner Benicio Del Toro for Things We Lost in the Fire; Ben Affleck ("No!") steps back behind the camera ("Oh, okay, whew") to direct Oscar-winners (boy, a lot of them this week) Morgan Freeman and Ed Harris in Gone Baby Gone; Josh Hartnett defends a small Alaska town from a horde of vampires (who may or have not won any Oscars) in 30 Days of Night; and inspirational sports movies are spoofed into a bloody pulp in The Comebacks, which ... may involve the eating of Oscar Meyer wieners, I don't know.

TTFN!

For the love of Martha Washington, don't make the same mistake that Shrykespeare did! Get in touch with him at shrykespeare@gmail.com and he'll tell you how Kelly McGillis is looking these days. Knock a second time if he doesn't seem to hear you at first; that's Berlin's "Take My Breath Away" that's blastin' in his headphones.