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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

September 14, 2007

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'The Brave One' Starts Slow w/$4.8M Friday; 'Yuma' Holds Strong w/projected $9.3M Second Weekend; 'Woodcock' Soft; 'Eastern Promises' and 'Across the Universe' Open Huge

by Steve Mason

Entering the weekend, Jodie Foster's last three films had all debuted with more than $20 million on opening weekend. Neil Jordan's The Brave One (Warner Bros.) will snap that streak, as the new street vengeance thriller opened to $4.8 million Friday. That will translate to an estimated $15.1 million weekend, which is well below industry expectations (and Warner Bros.'s hopes).

3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) is holding very strong with a $2.7 million Friday, and the James Mangold-directed Western will rustle up a likely $9.3 million by Monday morning. The Billy Bob Thornton comedy Mr. Woodcock (New Line) managed just $2.6 million for third place on Friday, and should finish the three-day with about $7.54 million, far behind Yuma.

Superbad (Sony) and the new Freestyle Releasing offering Dragon Wars finished fourth and fifth on Friday, and those positions should hold for the weekend. The Judd Apatow-produced comedy added $1.6 million to start the weekend, and it should reach $5.2 million for the frame. The South Korean dragon spectacular delivered $1.5 million on its opening day, and it's headed for a $4.2 million weekend.

Three major Oscar contenders entered limited release today, and the big winners appear to be David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises (Focus Features) and Julie Taymor's Beatles-inspired Across the Universe (Universal), with the dark, Iraq War-themed In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) a distant third.

Eastern Promises, a thriller written by Oscar nominee Steven Knight (Dirty Pretty Things), opened at 15 locations and has ridden strong reviews to a Friday per-theatre average (PTA) of $10,971, or about $165,000 total. Meanwhile, the Taymor musical, with decidedly mixed reviews, has started the weekend with a blazing $9,114 PTA at 23 locations. (Both films will expand significantly next Friday.) The music of the Beatles married to wild visuals has delivered an estimated $210,000 on opening day.

As the weekend progresses, I think that the harder, violent edge of Promises will allow the more crowd-pleasing Universe to close the PTA gap, but my guess is that Cronenberg's thriller, which reteams him with A History of Violence star Viggo Mortensen, will walk away with the three-day PTA crown. I'm penciling in $518,000 or so for Eastern Promises, for a $34,559 PTA. Across the Universe will likely be a tick lower at approximately $33,200 per from a $765,000 total take.

The Paul Haggis Iraq war drama In the Valley of Elah, with a cast that boasts Oscar winners Tommy Lee Jones, Susan Sarandon and Charlize Theron, had a solid, but unspectacular debut at nine locations. It grabbed about $40,000 on Friday for a $4,492 PTA. That should translate to a weekend of approximately $130,000 and a three-day PTA of $14,474.

Among other specialty releases, King of California (First Look), starring Michael Douglas, delivered a $2,250 PTA on five screens, Magnolia's Great World of Sound managed a PTA of $1,672 at two locations, and Ira & Abby, also from Magnolia, generated $1,542 per on seven screens, but should improve through the weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $4.8 million, $1,742 PTA [$4.8 million cume]
2. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $2.7 million, $1,012 PTA [$22 million cume]
3. NEW Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $2.6 million, $1,165 PTA [$2.6 million cume]
4. Superbad (Sony) — $1.6 million, $550 PTA [$107.7 million cume]
5. NEW Dragon Wars (Freestyle Releasing) — $1.5 million, $659 PTA [$1.5M
6. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.42 million, $465 PTA [$47.6 million cume]
7. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $1.2 million, $460 PTA [$213.2 million cume]
8. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $890,000, $323 PTA [$26.4 million cume]
9. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $833,000, $377 PTA [$130.6 million cume]
10. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $725,000, $344 PTA [$8.4 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $15.1 million, $5,481 PTA [$15.1 million cume]
2. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $9.3 million, $3,487 PTA [$28.6 million cume]
3. NEW Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $7.54 million, $3,380 PTA [$7.54 million cume]
4. Superbad (Sony) — $5.2 million, $1,787 PTA [$111.3 million cume]
5. NEW Dragon Wars (Freestyle Releasing) — $4.2 million, $1,846 PTA [$4.2 million cume]
6. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $4.04 million, $1,326 PTA [$50.3 million cume]
7. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $4.02 million, $1,540 PTA [$216 million cume]
8. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $3.08 million, $1,396 PTA [$132.9 million cume]
9. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $2.98 million, $1,081 PTA [$28.5 million cume]
10. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $2.41 million, $1,366 PTA [$28.2 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — 15 locations, $10,971 PTA
2. NEW Across the Universe (Sony) — 23 locations, $9,114 PTA
3. NEW In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — 9 locations, $4,492 PTA
4. NEW King of California (First Look) — 5 locations, $2,250 PTA
5. NEW The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — 2,755 locations, $1,742 PTA
6. NEW The Great World of Sound (Magnolia) — 2 locations, $1,672 PTA
7. Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — 1 location, $1,551 PTA
8. NEW Ira & Abby (Magnolia) — 7 locations, $1,542 PTA
9. The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — 40 locations, $1,277 PTA
10. NEW December Boys (Warner Independent) — 4 locations, $1,268 PTA
* NEW Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — 2,231 locations, $1,165 PTA
* NEW Silk (Picturehouse) — 122 locations, $281 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — 15 locations, $34,559 PTA
2. NEW Across the Universe (Sony) — 23 locations, $33,266 PTA
3. NEW In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — 9 locations, $14,374 PTA
4. NEW King of California (First Look) — 5 locations, $7,875 PTA
5. NEW The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — 2,755 locations, $5,481 PTA
6. NEW Ira & Abby (Magnolia) — 7 locations, $5,243 PTA
7. NEW Great World of Sound (Magnolia) — 2 locations, $5,183 PTA
8. Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — 1 location, $5,041 PTA
9. The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — 40 locations, $4,661 PTA
10. NEW December Boys (Warner Independent) — 4 locations, $4,438 PTA
* NEW Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — 2,231 locations, $3,380 PTA
* NEW Silk (Picturehouse) — 122 locations, $927 PTA

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Posted at 11:25 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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