Aussie Russell Mulcahy has directed Extinction, and it's his first major feature film, but he does have one claim to fame. Mulcahy directed the music video version of "Video Killed the Radio Star" by The Buggles, the first-ever music video to play on MTV. Despite his directorial prowess, Sony was apparently not impressed. The studio hasn't screened Resident Evil for critics, and I haven't even been able to come up with sneaky online reviews posted after test screenings.

Zombie movies are like pizza and sex. Even when they're bad, they're still pretty OK, so I suspect that Resident Evil: Extinction will be more than enough to open strongly. It's based on a video game, made for a decent budget and stars a European supermodel. How bad can it be? The original Resident Evil opened with $17.7 million back in 2002 and went on to a $40.1 million domestic gross. Then came 2004's Resident Evil: Apocalypse, which grabbed $23 million and finished with $51.2 million.

To the best of my ability, I have compiled a list of the Top 20 grossing zombie movies ranked in order by total domestic box office. I've included the opening weekend figure where available. Some of these movies feature true zombies, but there are also cases of genetic mutation, diseases that cause zombie-like behavior, creatures exhibiting behaviors that approximate the behaviors of zombies, and even undead pets. (In other words, please don't send me e-mails that say, "Hey, those weren't zombies!")

ALL-TIME TOP 20 GROSSING ZOMBIE MOVIES
1. Dawn of the Dead (2004) — $59 million cume [$26.7 million opening]
2. Pet Sematary (1989) — $57.4 million cume [$12 million opening]
3. Resident Evil: Apocalypse (2004) — $51.2 million cume [$23 million opening]
4. 28 Days Later (2002) — $45 million cume [$10 million opening]
5. Resident Evil (2002) — $40.1 million cume [$17.7 million opening]
6. 28 Weeks Later (2007) — $28.6 million cume [$9.8 million opening]
7. Doom (2005) — $28.2 million cume [$15.5 million opening]
8. Grindhouse (2007) — $25 million cume [$11.5 million opening]
9. George Romero's Land of the Dead (2005) — $20.7 million cume [$10.2 million opening]
10. Pet Sematary II (1992) — $17 million cume  [$4.8 million opening]
11. Night of the Comet (1984) — $14.4 million cume [$3.5 million opening]
12. Return of the Living Dead (1985) — $14.2 million cume [$4.4 million opening]
13. Shaun of the Dead (2004) — $13.5 million cume [$3.3 million opening]
14. Night of the Living Dead (1968) — $12 million cume [N/A opening]
15. Army of Darkness (1992) — $11.5 million cume [$4.4 million opening]
16. Return of the Living Dead II (1988) — $9.2 million cume [$3.6 million opening]
17. Evil Dead II (1987) — $5.9 million cume [$800,000 opening]
18. Night of the Living Dead (1990) — $5.8 million cume [$2.9 million opening]
19. Day of the Dead (1985) — $5 million cume [$1.7 million opening]
20. Evil Dead (1981) — $2.4 million cume [N/A opening]

Amazingly, 28 Weeks Later, a film that I love that disappointed at the box office earlier this year, is the sixth-best grossing zombie movie of all time, and it's a perfect comparable for Resident Evil: Extinction. The Sony zombie sequel has a 9 percent Un-Aided Awareness score compared to 3 percent for the Danny Boyle sequel. Extinction has an 81 percent Total Aware with an impressive 91 percent mark with Males Under 25. 28 Weeks went off with a 55 percent Total Aware and 64 percent with young males.

Resident Evil also has a sizable advantage in Definite Interest  45 percent-33 percent and a huge advantage in Definite Interest with Under 25 Males 60 percent-36 percent. And, here's how these movies shape compare in the all-important First Choice columns.

First Choice
Resident Evil: Extinction — 26 percent
Males Under 25: 45 percent
Males 25 Plus: 26 percent
Females Under 25: 21 percent
Females 25 Plus: 13 percent
28 Weeks Later — 7 percent
Males Under 25: 8 percent
Males 25 Plus: 8 percent
Females Under 25: 9 percent
Females 25 Plus: 4 percent

Given all of this, it seems completely probable that Resident Evil: Extinction will double 28 Weeks Later's $9.8 million opening weekend. It's a sequel to a franchise that Males Under 25 know, but it's probably not quite as strong as the tracking indicates. As of Friday morning, I'm targeting $17 million-$20 million for Extinction.

The new movie in the raunchy relationship comedy genre is Good Luck Chuck from Lionsgate. By virtually all accounts, this movie is awful. On Rotten Tomatoes, it's at a staggering 8 percent Fresh and only has a score of 22 at MetaCritic. Despite the dismal critical response, this movie has a chance to work, which would be a tribute to comic Dane Cook (and all his MySpace friends) and the smokin' hot "it" girl Jessica Alba.

It doesn't seem fair to compare any movie to Knocked Up, which was a critical darling and became a box office phenomenon this summer, but it is an R-rated, raunchy, relationship comedy starring rising, as opposed to established, stars. It's a good comparable, and its tracking numbers hold up surprisingly well against Knocked Up. Knocked Up had more buzz with 18 percent Un-Aided Awareness vs. 12 percent for Chuck, but the Lionsgate comedy exceeds Apatow's instant classic in Awareness 84 percent-81 percent. Believe it or not, Good Luck Chuck has also stronger Definite Interest numbers than Knocked Up.

Definite Interest
Good Luck Chuck — 45 percent
Males Under 25: 55 percent
Males 25 Plus: 33 percent
Females Under 25: 54 percent
Females 25 Plus: 34 percent)
Knocked Up — 37 percent
Males Under 25: 46 percent
Males 25 Plus: 32 percent
Females Under 25: 39 percent
Females 25 Plus: 31 percent

Good Luck Chuck has far better First Choice numbers than Knocked Up as well: 22 percent to 16 percent. Especially interesting is that Chuck is the First Choice of 31 percent of Females Under 25. When Under 25 couples show up at multiplexes tonight will they see Resident Evil: Extinction, the First Choice of 45 percent of Males Under 25, or will they see Good Luck Chuck, the First Choice of 31 percent of Under 25 Females. My guess is that Resident Evil wins out the majority of the time, and Good Luck Chuck will finish with $9 million-$11 million. That may seem low compared to the tracking, but let me explain.

Industry execs often talk about tracking by saying "What else is on the board?" In other words, when Knocked Up was "on the board" (being tracked in audience surveys), it was competing with upcoming movies like Ocean's Thirteen, Hostel II, Surf's Up and Fantastic Four 2. That means when someone asked if they were interested in seeing Knocked Up, they may have said, "No, not as much as Ocean's Thirteen." People only have so much "room in their head" for new movies, and when there are a lot of big ones coming out, it's much tougher to "cut" through.

Universal is trying to attract the High School Musical crowd this weekend with 'tween-targeted comedy Sydney White starring Amanda Bynes. This is a tough audience to connect with. It's tough to be funny enough to be cool and hip, but no so edgy that Mom and Dad won't approve. This summer's Nancy Drew had far more Awareness (78 percent to 45 percent for Sydney White), but the Bynes vehicle has far more Definite Interest.

Definite Interest
Sydney White — 36 percent
Males Under 25: 19 percent
Males 25 Plus: 17 percent
Females Under 25: 53 percent
Females 25 Plus: 31 percent
Nancy Drew — 13 percent
Males Under 25: 5 percent
Males 25 Plus: 4 percent
Females Under 25: 23 percent
Females 25 Plus: 16 percent

Amazingly, Sydney White is the First Choice of 22 percent of Females Under 25 (I assume that's really Females Under 18) and Nancy Drew only had a 5 percent score in that demo on its opening day. Nancy Drew opened with $6.8 million, but Drew benefited from a bigger Friday (no school), and there were a lot of big movies "on the board." Sydney White is doomed to a $4 million-$5 million opening weekend.

Finally, there's Toronto Film Festival winner Eastern Promises (Focus Features), and it's hands-down my personal favorite movie of the year so far. Directed by David Cronenberg, this brutal, violent exploration of the Russian mob in London, is a legit Best Picture contender, and after debuting with a terrific PTA last week, it expands to 1,200-plus screens this week.

I'm hoping that Focus isn't being too aggressive in its expansion. A movie like this needs to expand slowly so it builds a profile to be successful in smaller markets. As of today, Promises has a 4 percent Un-Aided Awareness, which is very good for a movie like this, but it only has 39 percent Awareness. It has a Definite Interest score of 29 percent, which means that 74 percent of everyone that has heard about the movie is interested in seeing it. I'm penciling in $5 million-$8 million for Eastern Promises, but I'm hoping for better.

Here are my Final Predictions for Sept. 21-23:
1. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $19.1 million
2. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $11 million
3. The Brave One (Warner Bros) — $8.6 million
4. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $7 million
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $6 million
6. Sydney White (Universal) — $4.5 million
7. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $3.9 million
8. Superbad (Sony) — $3.4 million
9. Across the Universe (Universal) — $3 million
10. In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $1.9 million