The Rock starred in 2006's Gridiron Gang, which opened to $14.4 million and went on to $38.4 million domestic, but industry tracking for The Game Plan is lagging behind some of the prerelease numbers for that football drama. Gridiron opened with 16 percent Un-Aided Awareness compared to just 4 percent for Game Plan. Last fall's movie also holds an advantage in Awareness (72 percent-64 percent), but The Game Plan has more Definite Interest (40 percent-38 percent). Gridiron grabbed a better First Choice score 16 percent-12 percent, but because Game Plan is a family comedy, there are a significant number of un-surveyed kids. Despite the football theme, Universal's Evan Almighty starring Steve Carell is probably a better comparable to get a feel for how The Game Plan will open.

UN-AIDED AWARENESS
Evan Almighty: 10 percent
The Game Plan: 4 percent

TOTAL AWARE
Evan Almighty: 94 percent
The Game Plan: 64 percent

DEFINITE INTEREST
Evan Almighty: 40 percent
The Game Plan: 40 percent

FIRST CHOICE
Evan Almighty: 20 percent
The Game Plan: 12 percent

Despite its bloated budget and legacy of having become the biggest financial loser of 2007, Evan Almighty opened decently, with $31.1 million. The Game Plan won't likely be that strong, but it's fair to expect $19 million-$22 million, which would make it either the second- or third-best opening of The Rock's career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE "THE ROCK" JOHNSON OPENINGS
1. The Scorpion King — $36 million
2. Be Cool — $23.4 million
3. The Rundown — $18.5 million
4. Walking Tall — $15.5 million
5. Doom — $15.4 million

Unlike The Game Plan, The Kingdom (Universal) is a very serious film. This action pic has a political bent, and it would benefit greatly from positive reviews. Unfortunately for director Peter Berg and the talented cast, the notices are running from mixed-to-negative. On Rotten Tomatoes, The Kingdom is getting only a 50 percent Fresh score from America's critics, and the very best critics (Rotten Tomatoes calls them "The Cream of the Crop") have given the Middle East-based pic only a 33 percent Fresh tally. Lisa Schwartzbaum of Entertainment Weekly offers a pretty good summary of the less-than-glowing critical reaction, including the observation that The Kingdom treats its audience "like cash-dispensing machines with buttons to be pushed rather than thinking individuals willing to consider the reality of America's entanglement with the Middle East."

This is the fourth film from actor Peter Berg (Smokin' Aces), and his last two movies have been particularly successful. His first big hit, The Rundown, ironically starring Game Plan star The Rock, opened to $18.5 million and ultimately hit $47.7 million domestic. Then the very well received Friday Night Lights grabbed $20.2 million in its first three days, ending its run at $61.2 million.

The movie features a lead performance from Jamie Foxx, who's been up and down since raising his profile through the roof in 2004 with two Oscar nomination. Including that year, only the film that earned Foxx his Supporting Actor nod, Collateral, and Dreamgirls, in which he played a decidedly supporting role, have hit $100M domestic.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 JAMIE FOXX MOVIES
1. Dreamgirls — $103.3 million cume ($378,000 opening)
2. Collateral — $101 million cume ($24.7 million opening)
3. Any Given Sunday — $75.5 million cume ($13.5 million opening)
4. Ray — $75.3M cume ($20 million opening)
5. Miami Vice — $63.4 million cume ($25.7 million opening)

Industry tracking suggests that The Kingdom will fall well short of Foxx's best opening weekends. When it comes to R-rated action pics, Shooter starring Mark Wahlberg is the most recent and most accurate comparable. The Kingdom looks to be headed for an opening weekend just a tick better than Shooter's $14.5 million. There was much better Un-Aided Awareness for Shooter (12 percent-4 percent), but Total Awareness is a wash with both movies at about 70 percent. The Berg-directed action movie has more Definite Interest (42 percent-35 percent), and The Kingdom has a slightly stronger First Choice number (15 percent-11 percent). Here's a demographic breakdown of the First Choice numbers for these 2 pictures.

FIRST CHOICE (MALES UNDER 25)
The Kingdom: 10 percent
Shooter: 10 percent

FIRST CHOICE (MALES 25 PLUS)
The Kingdom: 31 percent
Shooter: 21 percent

FIRST CHOICE (FEMALES UNDER 25)
The Kingdom: 6 percent
Shooter: 6 percent

FIRST CHOICE (FEMALES 25 PLUS)
The Kingdom: 11 percent
Shooter: 8 percent

All of these numbers should add up to an opening of $14 million-$17 million for The Kingdom, which would have to be categorized as a disappointment for Universal.

The other wide release, on 1,200 screens, is Feast of Love from MGM. This is an ensemble movie from Oscar-winning director Robert Benton (Kramer vs. Kramer, Places in the Heart). Reviews are decent with 52 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 58 from MetaCritic, but the meager marketing campaign doesn't seem to be doing the trick. Despite a cast that includes Oscar winner Morgan Freeman and Oscar nominee Greg Kinnear, Feast of Love has only a 39 percent Total Aware, Definite Interest of 30 percent and a First Choice of 3 percent, it appears that this Feast will be lightly attended. Don't look for more than $2 million-$3 million.

Here are my Final Predictions for the weekend of Sept. 28-30:
1. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $21.3 million
2. The Kingdom (Universal) — $16.5 million
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $10.6 million
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $5.9 million
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $4.9 million
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $4.5 million
7. Eastern Promises (Focus) — $3.9 million
8. Sydney White (Universal) — $2.8 million
9. In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $2.6 million
10. Feast of Love (MGM) — $2.5 million