FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: '3:10 to Yuma' is Vulnerable, But Seems Headed for $13M-$16M; 'Shoot 'Em Up' and Fast-Fading 'Halloween' to Battle for Second
by Steve Mason
At a glance, it looks like 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) should edge Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) for the weekend box office win, and the Western will probably carry the day. It's less of a sure thing, however, than you might think.
Neither movie will be a box office juggernaut. Yuma has Un-Aided Awareness of just 4 percent compared to 2 percent for the supercharged, over-the-top action pic, and the Western also has better Total Awareness 48 percent to 44 percent. If you go inside the numbers, however, 60 percent of Under 25 Males are Aware of Shoot 'Em Up.
Under 25 Males are the "money demo." If they say that they're interested, they will show up. Young males are incredibly reliable. Studio execs sleep well on Thursday night when their Friday release is scoring in the tracking with Under 25 Males. In terms of Overall Definite Interest, Shoot 'Em Up holds a 31 percent -29 percent advantage. Here's the breakdown for the 4 demos.
DEFINITE INTEREST
Shoot 'Em Up — 31 percent
Males Under 25: 42 percent
Males 25 Plus: 34 percent
Females Under 25: 18 percent
Females 25 Plus: 19 percent
3:10 to Yuma — 29 percent
Males Under 25: 26 percent
Males 25 Plus: 41 percent
Females Under 25: 13 percent
Females 25 Plus: 25 percent
Still, in the First Choice column, 3:10 to Yuma is at 11 percent compared to 5 percent for Shoot 'Em Up. Among Males Under 25, Shoot 'Em Up leads 10 percent to 9 percent, but the James Mangold-directed Western remake leads the other three First Choice demos (Males 25 Plus, 23 percent to 6 percent; Females Under 25, 3 percent to 2 percent; Females 25 Plus: 9 percent to 1 percent).
So, 3:10 to Yuma skews much older. Let's call them "the John Wayne generation." If you're old enough to have seen True Grit in theatres (60-plus), then you're thrilled about
I'd love to think that the Western can make a comeback, but, realistically, the genre has been dormant for a very long time. Before anybody complains, Brokeback Mountain is not a real western. It's a great film, but not a Western. I'm also excluding movies like Shanghai Noon and Back to the Future Part III, because, although they are technically Westerns, they have nothing to do with the genre.
TOP 10 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR WESTERNS RELEASED IN THE PAST 20 YEARS
1. Maverick (1990) — $17.2 million
2. Unforgiven (1992) — $15 million
3. Open Range (2003) — $14 million
4. The Missing (2003) — $10.8 million
5. Young Guns II (1990) — $8 million
6. Wyatt Earp (1994) — $7.5 million
7. Young Guns (1988) — $7 million
8. The Quick & the Dead (1995) — $6.5 million
9. Posse (1993) — $5 million
10. American Outlaws (2001) — $4.8 million
* Dances with Wolves (1990) — $600,000 (14 screens)
Can the Western be relevant for a new generation of movie fans? I'd love to think so. 3:10 to Yuma is a terrific film featuring two of our best actors. It's riding a wave of positive reviews, and the word-of-mouth is very positive. I'm forecasting $13 million-$16 million for this excellent Western, and I think it will have very good legs. (The 25 Plus crowd never turns up en masse on opening weekend. They'll "trickle" in for weeks.)
Meanwhile, War (Lionsgate), released just a couple of weeks ago on Aug. 24, is a pretty decent comparable for Shoot 'Em Up. The Jason Statham-Jet Li action flick opened with a $9.8 million weekend, and it actually had slightly better tracking than Shoot 'Em Up on its opening day. War leads Shoot 'Em Up in Total Awareness 59 percent to 44 percent, Definite Interest 37 percent to 31 percent and Overall First Choice 7 percent to 5 percent. Still, that weekend was much more crowded with four other wide releases (three if you leave out the pathetic September Dawn).
Given all of this, I say that Shoot 'Em Up is headed for $8 million-$11 million and a second place finish for the three-day, likely holding off a fast-fading Halloween. The other new wide release (about 650 screens) is The Brothers Solomon from Sony/Screen Gems. This is a classic "dump" for Sony. It's Bob Odenkirk's follow-up to last year's disastrous Let's Go to Prison ($4.6 million cume). It's been a precipitous fall for Odenkirk, whose Mr. Show with Bob and Dave is considered a classic. The Brothers Solomon has only 32 percent Awareness, 16 percent Definite Interest and a 2 percent First Choice. With these tracking scores, this comedy, written by and starring Saturday Night Live's Will Forte, will probably finish in the $2 million-$5 million range.
Here are my final predictions for this weekend September 7-9:
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14.3 million
2. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $10.7 million
3. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $10.1 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $7 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $5.9 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue) — $5.8 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.8 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.25 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $3 million
10. The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2.9 million
One can only wonder how a real western, September Dawn, which was based closely on historical events as Historian Will Bagley announced, would have done without the pre-release hatchet job done on it by historically challenged reviewers.
Posted by: Randy Gavin | September 06, 2007 at 04:16 AM
In this article, you say once that Shoot Em Up has 5% 1st Choice, and then later say War leads it 5-2 in 1st choice. Which is it?! Are these 2 #'s at different time periods?
Posted by: Chad | September 06, 2007 at 09:45 AM
Hi Chad,
Thanks for catching this. On opening day, WAR had a 7% Overall First Choice. SHOOT 'EM UP is currently at 5%, as I wrote early in the piece.
Change has been made.
-Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | September 06, 2007 at 10:37 AM
3:10 will make more then 15 million easy while shoot em up make over 10 million.Halloween will also hit rock bottom this weekend its just not a good time for a scary movie till halloween.
Posted by: DJ | September 06, 2007 at 02:37 PM
I think Halloween is going fall way down this weekend... Look how big of a drop it took in just its second and third days against no other strong competitor. Superbad has a good shot at taking 3rd for the weekend IMO.
Posted by: Tye Copeland | September 06, 2007 at 03:32 PM
On the list of the top ten western opening weekends, I didn't see Tombstone listed. I would have thought that it would make the list easily, especially with the relatively low opening grosses of some of those movies. What was it's opening weekend, and why?
Posted by: Chris Brown | September 07, 2007 at 07:55 AM
Tombstone made 6.5 mil on its opening weekend which would place it just behind The Quick and the Dead.
Posted by: Tye Copeland | September 07, 2007 at 10:39 AM
i doubt shoot em up will make 7 million this weekend. i think the brothers soloman will make 2 million. 3:10 will make between 14.5-16
Posted by: Lester Hayes | September 07, 2007 at 10:43 AM
I dunno. I think that the beginning of September is probably a great time to break out Shoot Em Up and Brothers Solomon. Why? One word: SCHOOL-TIME. I think that that is part of the same reason that Superbad has been doing so well. People, my guess, want to blow off steam. Been a rough week, first one after summer's unofficially ended. They don't want to THINK, they want to watch, somewhat mindlessly, and gasp or laugh their butts off.
I vote "mindless" this weekend.
I just don't think Yuma is going to do as well as people want or think, in part because I think they picked a bad release date for it (and the summer wouldn't have been any better). To me, westerns just seem to come off best in the late autumn or thereabouts. Even if it does do really well, I don't think it will stick for very long.
By the way these aren't value judgments on the movies -- just my guess as to what the American populace wants right now.
Posted by: abhaya | September 07, 2007 at 11:42 AM