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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

September 28, 2007

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Game Plan' Grabs $9.87M on Saturday and Headed for three-day of $22.24M; 'Kingdom' Adds $6.6M and Should Reach $17.23M; 'Darjeeling' w/$36,000-plus Per Screen on Saturday; 'Lust, Caution' Near Capacity in NYC

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: After scoring a narrow box office win over The Kingdom (Universal) on Friday, The Game Plan (Buena Vista) has turned it into a good old-fashioned "blow-out." While the Peter Berg-directed thriller saw a 13 percent or so uptick from opening day, Disney's gridiron family comedy received a huge "kiddie bounce."

The Game Plan starring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has surged to an estimated $9.87 million on Saturday, and it will likely wrap up the weekend with $22.24 million or so. For Johnson, this is a greater feat than any of his pro wrestling championships. The Rock has real box office muscle. If that number holds, it'll mark the third-best opening of his young movie career, trailing only The Scorpion King ($36 million), a CGI-driven Mummy sequel, and Be Cool ($23.4 million), an ensemble comedy with several bigger names including John Travolta.

As for The Kingdom, the big-budget, Saudi Arabia-set Universal action picture, with a cast that includes Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner, is a bit of a disappointment. The Kingdom added $6.6 million on Saturday, and it should manage to reach an estimated $17.23 million, but that's well under industry expectations. Zombie sequel Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) crawled to about $3.26 million on its second Saturday, and it'll lurch to a likely $7.49 million by Monday morning, putting it just over $36 million in its first 10 days of release. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate), with an estimated $5.75 million, and 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate), with about $3.9 million, should round out the weekend Top 5.

The Wes Anderson comedy The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) opened on 2 screens in New York City on Saturday, and there can't have been many empty seats. On three screens at the Regal Cinemas Union Square 14 and 1 screen at the AMC Loews Lincoln Square, the India-set comedy starring Owen Wilson, Adrien Brody and Jason Schwartzman has generated a Per Theater Average of just over $36,728. The unorthodox Saturday opening will allow Darjeeling Limited to coast to a relatively easy 3-day PTA win with an estimated $66,750 per.

At No. 2 in the PTA race is Ang Lee's Lust, Caution (Focus Features), which has its only engagement, on 2 screens, at New York City's Lincoln Plaza Cinemas on the Upper West Side. The Venice Film Festival winner is playing to near capacity houses and has delivered about $23,000 in sales on its second day, and the Chinese language noir thriller is headed for a weekend PTA of just over $61,000.

Sean Penn's Into the Wild from Paramount Vantage expanded to 33 locations, and the adventure drama is showing real box-office drawing power. At the end of Sunday business, it will have posted an excellent $600,000 three-day and a three-day PTA of nearly $19,000 per location.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $9.87 million, $3,182 PTA [$16.1 million cume]
2. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — $6.6 million, $2,365 PTA [$12.6 million cume]
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $3.26 million, $1,154 PTA [$34.4 million cume]
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $2.34 million, $899 PTA [$21.6 million cume]
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $1.67 million, $629 PTA [$42.5 million cume]
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $1.65 million, $599 PTA [$29.8 million cume]
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $1.36 million, $966 PTA [$10.7 million cume]
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $1.29 million, $591 PTA [$18.8 million cume]
9. Sydney White (Universal) — $1.12 million, $536 PTA [$7.8 million cume]
10. Across the Universe (Sony) — $794,600, $2,344 PTA [$4.9 million cume]
* NEW Feast of Love (MGM) — $682,600, $569 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $633,250, $831 PTA [$2.9 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $519,000, $1,020 PTA [$314.7 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $242,300, $7,344 PTA [$726,000 cume]
* NEW Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $73,400, $36,700 PTA [$73,400 cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $68,200, $1,705 PTA [$330,000 cume]
* NEW Trade (IDP Films) — $40,000, $443 PTA [$75,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $35,000, $7,000 PTA [$271,000 cume]
* NEW Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $23,000, $23,000 PTA [$42,000 cume]
* NEW Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) — $12,700, $212 PTA [$22,000 cume]
* NEW Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) — $5,622, $703 PTA [$13,000 cume]
* NEW The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) — $1,344, $1,344 PTA [$2,533 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $22.24 million, $7,170 PTA [$22.24 million cume]
2. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — $17.23 million, $6,171 PTA [$17.23 million cume]
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $7.49 million, $2,649 PTA [$36.2 million cume]
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $5.75 million, $2,205 PTA [$23 million cume]
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $3.88 million, $1,456 PTA [$43.6 million cume]
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $3.65 million, $1,328 PTA [$30.7 million cume]
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $3.2 million, $2,275 PTA [$11.5 million cume]
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $2.86 million, $1,306 PTA [$19.4 million cume]
9. Sydney White (Universal) — $2.7 million, $1,284 PTA [$8.5 million cume]
10. Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.98 million, $5,865 PTA [$5.4 million cume]
* NEW Feast of Love (MGM) — $1.7 million, $1,418 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $1.48 million, $1,946 PTA [$3.4 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.13 million, $2,231 PTA [$315.1 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $619,000, $18,800 PTA [$917,000 cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $161,200, $4,032 PTA [$374,000 cume]
* NEW Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $133,500, $66,750 PTA [$133,500 cume]
* NEW Trade (IDP Films) — $102,000, $1,129 PTA [$102,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $87,500, $17,500 PTA [$296,000 cume]
* NEW Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $61,600, $61,600 PTA [$61,600 cume]
* NEW Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) — $30,000, $495 PTA [$30,000 cume]
* NEW Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) — $17,000, $2,111 PTA [$17,000 cume]
* NEW The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) — $3,433- $3,433 PTA [$3,433 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 2 locations, $36,600 PTA
2. NEW Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 1 location, $23,000 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 33 locations, $7,344 PTA
4. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 5 locations, $7,000 PTA
5. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,103 locations, $3,182 PTA
6. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — 2,793 locations, $2,365 PTA
7. Across the Universe (Sony) — 339 locations, $2,344 PTA
8. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — 40 locations, $1,705 PTA
9. NEW The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) — 1 location, $1,344 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — 2,828 locations, $1,154 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 2 locations, $66,750 PTA
2. NEW Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 1 location, $61,600 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 33 locations, $18,752 PTA
4. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 5 locations, $17,565 PTA
5. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,103 locations, $7,170 PTA
6. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — 2,793 locations, $6,171 PTA
7. Across the Universe (Sony) — 339 locations, $5,865 PTA
8. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — 40 locations, $4,032 PTA
9. NEW The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) — 1 location, $3,433 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — 2,828 locations, $2,649 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: A "Disney-fied" Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has beaten Universal's big-budget, Saudi Arabia-set action-thriller The Kingdom for a weekend box office win. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) generated $5.7 million on its opening day, and the family movie will likely score an estimated $19.38 million after kids flood America's multiplexes on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, the Peter Berg-directed The Kingdom won't get any "kiddie bounce," and it will finish with a softer $16.75 million or so.

For Dwayne Johnson, this marks the third-best opening of his post-wrestling movie career, just surpassing, ironically, The Rundown, which was directed by Peter Berg:

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE "THE ROCK" JOHNSON OPENINGS
1. The Scorpion King — $36 million
2. Be Cool — $23.4 million
3. The Game Plan — $19.38 million (Estimated)
4. The Rundown — $18.5 million
5. Walking Tall — $15.5 million

The Kingdom continues Jamie Foxx's "spotty" box office track record. Only two of his movies, Collateral and Dreamgirls, have hit $100 million domestic, and The Kingdom won't get anywhere close to that benchmark, although it will probably take the place of the Will Smith vehicle Ali as the fifth-best opening of the Foxx's career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 JAMIE FOXX OPENINGS
1. Jarhead — $27.7 million
2. Miami Vice — $25.7 million
3. Collateral — $24.7 million
4. Ray — $20 million
5. The Kingdom - $16.75 million (Estimated)

Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) will finish the weekend third. After a $2.5 million second Friday, the zombie sequel should manage $7.35 million, representing a monstrous 69 percent drop from opening weekend. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) will likely suffer a 56 percent drop from its opening three-day. The Dane Cook-Jessica Alba "raunchfest" will probably climb just past $6 million for the weekend. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be the Lionsgate Western 3:10 to Yuma with an estimated $4.1 million, lifting it past $40 million domestic.

Ang Lee's Lust, Caution (Focus Features), a surprise winner at the Venice Film Festival, has opened with numbers in the stratosphere at its one New York engagement. The Chinese language film with an NC-17 rating scored nearly $19,000 on Friday, and it is targeting a $50,000-plus opening weekend PTA at the Lincoln Plaza Cinemas on the Upper West Side. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.), which did not expand from its five "official" opening-weekend engagements, delivered another $5,400 or so in PTA Friday, and it will finish No. 2 in PTA for the weekend with an estimated $18,000.

Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage), Sean Penn's terrifically reviewed adventure film starring Emile Hirsch, has expanded strongly to 33 locations. Wild enjoyed a $4,400 PTA on Friday and that should translate to a nearly $16,000 three-day PTA.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $5.7 million, $1,837 PTA [$5.7 million cume]
2. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — $5.55 million, $1,987 PTA [$5.55 million cume]
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $2.5 million, $884 PTA [$31.2 million cume]
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $2 million, $766 PTA [$19.2 million cume]
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $1.2 million, $450 PTA [$40.9 million cume]
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $1.1 million, $399 PTA [$28.2 million cume]
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $1 million, $710 PTA [$9.3 million cume]
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $735,000, $335 PTA [$17.3 million cume]
9. Sydney White (Universal) — $725,000, $344 PTA [$6.6 million cume]
10. Feast of Love (MGM) — $600,000, $500 PTA [$600,000 cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $557,000, $1,646 PTA [$4 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $313,000, $411 PTA [$2.2 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $232,000, $456 PTA [$314.2 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $147,000, $4,452 PTA [$521,500 cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $49,000, $1,218 PTA [$254,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $26,700, $5,343 PTA [$235,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $19.38 million, $6,246 PTA [$19.38 million cume]
2. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — $16.75 million, $5,997 PTA [$16.75 million cume]
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $7.35 million, $2,599 PTA [$36.1 million cume]
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $6.08 million, $2,328 PTA [$23.3 million cume]
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $4.1 million, $1,537 PTA [$43.8 million cume]
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $3.8 million, $1,379 PTA [$30.9 million cume]
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $3.35 million, $2,379 PTA [$11.6 million cume]
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $2.35 million, $1,072 PTA [$18.9 million cume]
9. Sydney White (Universal) — $2.13 million, $1,016 PTA [$8 million cume]
10. Feast of Love (MGM) — $1.9 million, $1,583 PTA [$1.9 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.75 million, $5,183 PTA [$5.2 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $1.14 million, $1,501 PTA [$3 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $871,000, $1,712 PTA [$314.8 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $522,000, $15,806 PTA [$820,000 cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $170,500, $4,263 PTA [$375,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $91,000, $18,165 PTA [$299,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 1 location, $18,925 PTA
2. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 5 locations, $5,343 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 33 locations, $4,452 PTA
4. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — 2,793 locations, $1,987 PTA
5. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,103 locations, $1,837 PTA
6. Across the Universe (Sony) — 339 locations, $1,646 PTA
7. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — 40 locations, $1,218 PTA
8. NEW The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) — 1 location, $1,189 PTA
9. NEW Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) — 8 locations, $937 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — 2,828 locations, $884 PTA
* Feast of Love (MGM) — 1,200 locations, $500 PTA
* Trade (IDP Films) — 90 locations, $387 PTA
* Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) — 60 locations, $150 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 1 location, $54,883 PTA
2. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 5 locations, $18,165 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 33 locations, $15,806 PTA
4. NEW The Kingdom (Universal) — 2,793 locations, $5,997 PTA
5. NEW The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,103 locations, $6,246 PTA
6. Across the Universe (Sony) — 339 locations, $5,183 PTA
7. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — 40 locations, $4,263 PTA
8. NEW The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) — 1 location, $4,162 PTA
9. NEW Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) — 8 locations, $3,280 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — 2,828 locations, $2,599 PTA
* Feast of Love (MGM) — 1,200 locations, $1,583 PTA
* Trade (IDP Films) — 90 locations, $1,289 PTA
* Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) — 60 locations, $525 PTA

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Posted at 11:43 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

don't forget Darjeeling will be hot on Lust Caution's trails on Saturday- losing the Friday will make it lose the Top PTA place, but I expect a strong 2nd

Posted by: numbersix_99 | September 29, 2007 at 04:50 AM

Go Ang Lee!

Posted by: tuan69 | September 29, 2007 at 06:13 AM

Could this be that the rock goes from wrestling to movie star status? If he continues the hits maybe just maybe he'll get one worthy of an oscar in the near future

Posted by: DJ | September 29, 2007 at 11:27 AM

Hey Mase,

Great Job as always. I have one request for you. Do you think you can do some early tracking in the next few weeks on the first weekend of the November. It will undoubtedly be the most talked about weekend of the current season, with Gangster and Bees going at it.

Everyone is anxious to know how strong these 2 films are tracking. Do you think you could throw something together in the next few weeks?

Posted by: Keyser | October 01, 2007 at 08:55 AM

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