We may as well start with the film whose fate seems already decreed, the one condemned to a quick disappearance. I mean, Goal 2: Living the Dream?  When Disney set up their big $100 million trilogy about football (sorry, I mean soccer) three years ago, they wanted to make THE movies that the world's most popular sport had never had. After a false start with Michael Winterbottom and Mexican actor Diego Luna — think about that for a second — they went with Judge Dredd's Danny Cannon (um, no comment) and actor Kuno Becker. The first film (Goal) was released everywhere in the fall of 2005 (except in the U.S., where it came out in summer 2006), and was pretty much a big flop. (Not even $30 million worldwide gross for the most watched sport on the planet?) The problem is, they signed for a trilogy before the first movie came out ... so even if no one really cared about the first Goal, the second was made, and the third is on its way.

It will come as no surprise that the sequel, released in Europe and Latin America last spring, did even less business than the first film. Will North Americans, renowned for their lack of enthusiasm towards football (sorry again, soccer!), be more receptive to Goal 2 than Europeans or South Americans? It seems very, very doubtful, no matter what David Beckham might have to say about it. The first Goal movie made a little more than $4 million in the U.S., playing on more than 1,000 screens. This sequel is scheduled for an 800-screen launch, so don't hope for more than $2.5 million in total receipts, with no Top 5 or PTA points whatsoever. The IMDb User Rating shouldn't change much, and it currently stands at 6.0. The movie is available for $2, whether you're in a Box Office or Ultimate Movie Moguls league. But even at that, it looks like a waste of money.

If you want to spend $2 on a Sept. 28 release, then you may prefer to opt for I'll Believe You. Not because it will make more money. It won't. It looks, however, like the kind of film that could develop a cult following and build its own little buzz in the few theaters that will show it. After all, how often can you see a comedy about a radio show host on a quest to prove the existence of aliens on our good Earth? That's right, the premise is eccentric, and that's just how we love our comedies. And it's not as though the homemade feel provided by DV filming will make the movie seem any less goofy ...

Behind the scenes are a bunch of producer/screenwriter/director/actor buddies, Paul Francis Sullivan, Sean McPharlin, Ted Sullivan and Patrick Gallo. None of them are very well-known, but a few semi-famous faces show up in the film, among them Thomas Gibson, Fred Willard, Chris Elliott and Patrick Warburton. Let's face it though, there's nothing guaranteed with I'll Believe You. Not that it matters that much, but the movie was actually made three years ago under the title First Time Caller, and today, here it is. Does I'll Believe You have PTA potential? Not that much, not in a period when Oscar-caliber films are beginning to open in limited release. Will the User Rating be high? Well, don't expect it to stay at 8 (where it currently sits based on 27 votes), but it surely can stay in the low 7s. If you like the looks of it, grab it. It probably won't do you much good, but, hey, it only costs $2.

Now, here come the big ones, two high-profile limited releases that could sure make a slate look good, two high-profile directors who take us to Asia, two movies that were both in competition at the Venice Mostra ...

First let's discuss Wes Anderson's latest, The Darjeeling Limited, the story of three brothers who, one year after their father's death, set up a trip to India to rediscover their lost fraternal bond. The Indian voyage of course results in adventures only the Texas-born director has the formula for. In the course of four features — Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums and The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou — Wes Anderson has created a body of work that mixes humour and emotion like few other filmmakers before him. A clever screenwriter working in duets (Owen Wilson, Noah Baumbach, and for this one he cheated and took two co-writers, Jason Schwartzman and Roman Coppola), Anderson is also an inventive director, never afraid of trying new things.

All of this has helped him build a real fan base, not least among film critics. And if he only has one box-office hit in his filmography (The Royal Tenenbaums, which grossed $52 million), I'd say he's still the kind of director who could produce a hit with no warning whatsoever. Might that be the case with The Darjeeling Limited? Hard to say. Just as he did for his previous films, Anderson has garnered a terrific group of actors, almost all of whom are regulars: Owen Wilson, Jason Schwartzman, Anjelica Huston and Bill Murray, plus a newcomer to the Anderson universe, Adrien Brody. (Of course, just having a lot of great actors in your film is not enough to guarantee success, or else Woody Allen would be more popular in the U.S. ... ) Darjeeling was presented at the Venice Film Festival last week, where it didn't do much. But the word is that, if you love Anderson movies (and I personnally do), then you'll probably love this one as well.

The Darjeeling Limited opens in New York City on Sept. 29. Yes, on a Saturday ... God only knows why Fox Searchlight has decided to open the film that way. As a result, it will suffer from low PTA, with a two-day kickoff weekend instead of the customary three. On the other hand, the fact the movie is scheduled to open only in New York, plus Anderson's cult following, should still guarantee a considerable opening weekend turnout, with gradual expansions to follow. Will the recent tabloid coverage of Owen Wilson's apparent attempted suicide give the film a boost? It's sad, but there's a (small) possiblity that it will. Also, considering that Anderson's last two movies opened in December, when Oscar buzz is usually in full flower, there could be less of overall Fantasy Moguls impact from a late September release. On the other, the film will have less direct competition now than later on.

Fantasy Moguls currently predicts $22 million in revenues (which seems to me like the maximum the movie can do), 3 PTA points (which, on the contrary, is the very least that should be expected — I'd say 5 or 6 points is definitely possible), no Top 5 (I agree) and a 7.2 User Rating (again, the very least  that should be expected — it could reach the high 7s). You can have it for $14 in September Ultimate leagues, or $8 in the Box Office leagues. The investment will produce much better results in the Ultimate category.

Available for just $1 more in Ultimate leagues (yes, that would be $15), is Lust, Caution. Now, at this point, if you're on top of your game when it comes to industry watching, then you already know that this film just got a serious boost a few days ago. If, on the other hand, you've just come back from a weekender in Tijuana and need to be updated ... allow me:

What is Lust, Caution? Only the latest film from Ang Lee, just two years after Lee produce the most buzzed-about film of fall 2005, Brokeback Mountain. That modern western began its career by winning the prestigious Golden Lion at the Venice Mostra, and guess what? Lust, Caution did the same just last weekend. This came just days after Focus Features announced they would not appeal the decision by the MPAA to rate the movie NC-17 for explicit sexuality. Now, you don't need to be graced with Jean-Baptiste Grenouille's sense of smell to detect that there is a strange mix of scents around the film, some good, some bad, but in this case, even the bad ones could be of benefit.

What's the film about anyway? Ang Lee has returned to his native Taiwan to tell us the story of a young Chinese woman who, in the Japanese-occupied Shanghai of World War II, is assigned a mission by the local resistance: to seduce and kill an influential Japanese collaborationist. It's a three-hour long, Mandarin Chinese-language erotic thriller starring a newcomer, Tang Wei, and two well-respected Chinese actors, Joan Chen and Wong Kar Wai favorite Tony Leung Chiu Wai (star of Infernal Affairs, which became the basis for Martin Scorsese's The Departed). Now, I realize some of you probably lost interest when you read "three-hour long" and "Mandarin Chinese-language," but trust me, as a film buff you should still be excited, and as a Fantasy Moguls player, you should most definitely pay attention to Lust, Caution.

First things first: A film that was just recently awarded the most prestigious prize from the oldest European Film Festival is sure to attract cinephiles. The fact it makes Ang Lee a two-time Golden Lion winner will only increase curiosity. Besides, it's Ang Lee! He made a lot of guys angry because he didn't make the Hulk movie they wanted him to make, and because they won't admit he made them cry through a Western about gay cowboys. But those angry guys are not as many in number as people who felt Brokeback Mountain should have won the Oscar two years ago (to say nothing of people who still fondly recall Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon), and are anxious to discover another daring film from the same filmmaker.

Then we have the NC-17 rating. That would kill most movies because it means less advertising, fewer theaters, and of course less audience able to see the film. But will it really diminish Lust, Caution's chances? I personally don't think so. Focus's decision to keep the rating will certainly be seen as a gesture of artistic integrity by many film buffs. The rating will also guarantee that the film won't open in many theaters (it's listed as a New York exclusive for the first weekend of release on FilmJerk), and therefore generate strong PTA for more than a week.

In the end, here's what you have with Lust, Caution: a prestigious film, by a filmmaker with a strong following, opening on a limited circuit of theaters (and not just during one weekend) that will attract many, many film lovers, and rope in some curious others besides. Is it worth your $15 in Ultimate leagues? Unless you think you have enough PTA points with the rest of your slate, then hell yes. Expect it to lead the PTA race on that Sept. 28 weekend, and, with few expansion possibilities due to the NC-17 rating, I'd say the 6 points predicted by Fantasy Moguls is a minimum. It could be a real PTA goldmine. As far as User Rating goes, the film should settle between 7.5 and 7.9.

Now, before I look at what the coming weeks have in store for us, let me remind you that Bordertown, which my friend and esteemed colleague Shrykespeare already chronicled last month, also opens in limited release on Sept. 28. I won't waste many lines discussing it, since our favorite bard already told you everything you need to know: this Jennifer Lopez drama is gonna flop, after being booed at the Berlin Festival last February, after failing to attract European audiences last spring , and after being delayed and delayed on the U.S. release calendar. Whether you spend $6 or $10 on it, it will only be a waste of money.

Now, looking ahead towards the end of November, when everybody will start talking about those famous Golden Statuettes, there are any number of films that will open on few screens but will be talked about by many. Staying with the Venice Film Festival theme, I thought I might try to convince you right now that one film everybody will be closely watching in the next few weeks is I'm Not There (Nov. 21), Todd Haynes's personal and original film about Bob Dylan. Just like Lust, Caution, this one created a sensation at the Mostra, winning over the critics and charming the jury, which awarded the film two prizes, the Special Jury Prize and the Best Actress Prize for Cate Blanchett, who apparently contributes an astounding impersonation of Dylan. She's not the only one, however, as no fewer than six actors are playing the famous "Blowin' in the Wind" singer at different stages of his life: Christian Bale, Heath Ledger (yes, Batman AND The Joker in the same film, way ahead of The Dark Knight), RIchard Gere, Marcus Carl Franklin and Ben Whishaw.

Todd Haynes hasn't directed a feature since his splendid Far From Heaven five years ago, a film that won him more awards and rave reviews than most director ever dream of (although the Oscars have been a bit shy ... no wait a second, it was the same year as Chicago; guess that means the operative word is not shy, but stupid). Needless to say, I'm Not There will be awaited by a horde of ecstatic cinephiles (OK maybe I'm exagerating a bit, but still ... ), and, given the warm welcome encountered at Venice, it should be huge on the arthouse front come November. So don't lose sight of this one.

Well, that's all folks. I hope at least some of you who read this column decide to go see that three-hour long Mandarin film instead of the Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson "comedy" Shrykespeare told you about yesterday. Next week, I'll cook you up a few alternatives to The Seeker: The Dark is Rising ...

Indie Jones would rather not talk about kingdoms and crystal skulls. Oh, all right, screw it, you know what this means? It means that George Lucas is exerting control, that's what it means. Fight back, Steven! Resist the Phantom Menace! As for the rest of you, send your questions about Wes Anderson, Ang Lee, or forthcoming Goal movies to danceswiththearthouse@gmail.com.