THE SCORECARD: Average of Eight "Expert" Sources Calls for $14.55M for '3:10 to Yuma'; 'Halloween' Expected Second for the Three-day Edging 'Shoot 'Em Up'
by Steve Mason
Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even after studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me — and the rest of the box office "authorities" — humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.
Note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, Sept. 7), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and three-day projections available anywhere, and, as proven virtually every week, they are generally quite accurate.
This week, we're posting the predictions of seven "expert" sources, plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages. Everyone agrees that 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate), the remake of the classic Western, will easily win the weekend. My prediction of $14.3 million is right in line with the $14.55 million "experts" average. The Box Office Mojo Derby averages offer the rosiest Yuma prediction, with a $16.9 million prediction, while Edward Douglas from Coming Soon offers the lowest number at $13.4 million. The "expert" averages call for Halloween to finish second, followed by Shoot 'Em Up at No. 3 with $11.7 million.
Here are the weekend box-office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14.3 million
2. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $10.7 million
3. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $10.1 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $7 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $5.9 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $5.8 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.8 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.25 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $3 million
10. The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2.9 million
Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $13.4 million
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $9.9 million
3. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $9.2 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $6.3 million
5. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $5.7 million
6. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $5.4 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.3 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.2 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $2.6 million
10. The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2 million
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14 million
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $11 million
3. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $8 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $7 million
* The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2 million
Box Office Report
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $15 million
2. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $10 million
3. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $9 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $6.8 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $6.2 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $4.8 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $2.8 million
10. The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2 million
10. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $2 million
Joshua Rich, Entertainment Weekly
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14 million
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $13 million
3. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $12 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $8 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $7 million
* The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $1 million
Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14.4 million
2. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $12.3 million
3. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $10.7 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $9.2 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $6.9 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $6 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.7 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.3 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $3 million
10. The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2.1 million
World of KJ
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14.4 million
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $9 million
3. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $6.7 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $6.5 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $6 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $5 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.5 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $2.7 million
10. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $1.8 million
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $16.9 million
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $12.6 million
3. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $11.7 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $8.7 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $7.5 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $7 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $6 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $4.7 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $4.3 million
10. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $3.6 million
BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14.55 million
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $10.08 million
3. Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $10.66 million
4. Superbad (Sony) — $7.44 million
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $6.41 million
6. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $5.72 million
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $4.72 million
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.41 million
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.07 million
10. Death Sentence (20th Century Fox) — $2.47 million
11. The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $2M


WOKJ's prediction for Yuma is actually $13.3m.
Posted by: xiayun | September 07, 2007 at 03:04 PM
Our Crystal Balls Say:
Halloween… $13M
3:10 to Yuma… $12M
Shoot ‘Em Up… $7.5M
Superbad… $6.5M
The Bourne Ultimatum… $5M
Balls of Fury… $4M
Rush Hour 3… $3.5M
Mr. Bean’s Holiday… $3M
The Nanny Diaries… $2.5M
The Brother’s Solomon… $2.5M
Death Sentence… $1.5M
Posted by: Box Office Psychics | September 08, 2007 at 07:55 PM