TIP OF THE WEEK: Ten Simple Rules for Dating Mr. Informative's ... er, for Winning Fantasy Moguls
by Mister Informative
Greetings, Moguls, and welcome to the Tip of the Week. If you're new to Fantasy Moguls, then you may be looking for ways to gain a foothold in your leagues — and if that's the case, then you've come to the right place. With the launch of a new season this week, there's still time to make last minute tweaks before your picks (the early ones anyway) are locked into your lineup. To help you out, I've channeled my inner John Ritter and compiled a list of Simple Rules for Winning Fantasy Moguls (only I've got 10 instead of eight, and if this column is ever the basis for a sitcom, then you KNOW that television has run out of ideas.) We'll count them down Letterman-style — or E!'s 101 Most Outrageous Celebrity (Fill in the blank)-style, if you prefer — leaving the most crucial/most important piece of advice for last, naturally. Onward!
10. Don't be a stranger to the Fantasy Moguls message boards.
We columnists can provide a wealth of information, sure, but the message boards can also be immensely helpful. If you've got a question about scoring or strategy, there's a place to inquire. If something in your league or account doesn't seem to be working right, you can always post and get help from the Moguls staff. Observant Moguls gamers periodically post bulletins when release dates change — good thing, too, because a date change sometimes sneaks up on you, and can certainly throw a wrench into your plans for a winning slate. You can use the trailer section of the boards to watch previews you haven't seen and form your own opinions, decide whether or not certain films would be worth having on your slate. Or, you can hear opinions (predictions, as well as the occasional early review) directly from fellow players. (Some Moguls have the privilege of seeing films before their release, whether by virtue of their status as a film industry insiders, their residence in a country where the movie has already been released, or their employment at a theater.) Plus, if you've joined Fantasy Moguls, you probably love movies (and you probably like to talk about them), so you'll be right at home even in plain ol' fashioned movie discussions on the boards. Any way you slice it, the message board is a valuable resource — definitely take advantage of it!
9. Your own personal taste in movies shouldn't limit what you put on your slate.
Don't pass on a good pick simply because you don't like the genre (I did that with Halloween and, after this weekend, I have my regrets), or are turned off by unfunny or uncompelling trailers (or by the presence of certain actors or directors), or think a sequel is just one too many. (I thought that about Rush Hour 3 and, at first, refused to include it in any of my lineups. Thankfully I gave in and ended up with a $120 million benefit to some of my slates). Just because you won't see a movie doesn't mean there aren't plenty of others out there who will. There's certainly room to live by your own opinions — I wouldn't have blamed anyone who passed on Daddy Day Camp for the sequel reason, or the trailer reason, or for any reason at all, really — but remember, the aim is to create the studio with the best real-world performance, not simply the lineup of movies you're looking forward to most. You may think, "Another Disney family comedy? Haven't we had enough already?" But don't let that make you decide that Wild Hogs, for example, is destined be a massive failure. (Next up: The Game Plan. Scorn it at your peril.) And don't forget that your own anticipation of certain movies may cause you to overestimate their potential. If it's best for your studio, don't hesitate to pull the trigger and pick up, say, a chick flick that'll score big with the female demographic, even if it means swallowing your own personal distaste for overly sappy endings.
8. Watch for cutoff bargains.
These are the films that come out just before the end of a given season. Since they don't have time to rise to their total earnings potential before the season draws to a close, they may be priced on the cheap. Still, the numbers they rack up in one or two weekends may be well worth it. The Simpsons Movie, for example, gave its owners in May-July Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues a fabulous $74 million, 5 Top 5 points, and 5 PTA points in its only eligible weekend ... all for just $6. While most cutoff bargains are released in the last two weeks of the season, some extend as far as three weekends or a whole month out. With those, there's absolutely nothing in the way of truncated performance to be worried about, especially for Ultimate players. By a movie's third or fourth weekend, it won't be earning PTA points anymore, and it'll often be out of or on its way out of the Top 5 (unless it's The Bourne Ultimatum, which has remained in the top 5 every week since its release.) You may miss out on some box office revenue, but it'll probably be fairly negligible. One example of a great cutoff bargain is The Game Plan, at just $3 in July-September leagues. True, it only has one weekend to perform, but that one weekend will provide plenty for the price you pay. Other cutoff bargains include The Heartbreak Kid (4 weekends to earn) and 30 Days of Night (2 weekends to earn), each of which will only set you back $2 in August-October Box Office Moguls leagues.
7. By the same token, beware of movies whose cutoffs will bite you.
Just as there are bargains, there are also some that are plenty overpriced. Current examples include Hitman, at $19 in September-November Box Office leagues (with just two weekends in play and many cheaper options available that are destined to earn just as much) and The Comebacks at $7 in August-October Box Office leagues (with only one weekend in play and The Heartbreak Kid also out there for just $2). You can find some great cheap picks in the final weeks of a season, but you can also get burned. Enchanted is priced at $13 in both types of September-November leagues; it's due to be released on Nov. 21, so it has just two weekends on the market before the season ends. Given the Wednesday release date and the Thanksgiving holiday as one of its eligible weekends (and the Disney name brand), this one wouldn't be a terrible cutoff pick, but I wouldn't pay any more than that in any other (present or future) league for a cutoff movie. And if something is only eligible for one weekend, don't even THINK about it if its price tag is in the double digits.
6. Use all eight movie slots.
It may be tempting to pick a few high-priced blockbusters and leave it at that, but doing so probably won't work out very well. In Ultimate leagues, this will absolutely kill you, as the IMDb score category is based on a full slate. (The cumulative total of your films determines your placement in the league, so even if all three or four of your movies are 7s or 8s, you're at a disadvantage because someone who picked eight movies with identical and unexciting 5.1 ratings would still beat you handily. Of course neither one of those scenarios would likely happen precisely like that, but you get the picture.) Big movies earn PTA points, but they often can't earn as much as some of the smaller releases (like Talk to Me, which grabbed 9 PTA points back in July.) In order to find those, you can't be overloaded with high priced Moguls Monsters or even all wide-release films (and you've got to read Indie Jones's columns, of course. [Wink.]) In Box Office leagues, finding the hits that are underpriced (like Superbad in August-October leagues, which cost just $8 and has netted over $90 million thus far) will give your studio a big boost, but you'll only have room to do it if you don't exclusively pick blockbusters. And besides, isn't the strategy (and perhaps research) involved in picking that perfect lineup part of the fun?
5. In Ultimate leagues, don't go crazy with PTA babies.
Sometimes the PTA babies can be just as expensive as the blockbusters. Take for example The 11th Hour, which cost $27 in August-October leagues and delivered just 5 PTA points, far fewer from its projected 11. (For the record, it's also nowhere near the projected $23 million box office gross.) In cases like this, the projected PTA kings aren't worth it — it's much better to go with mid-priced films, like Sunshine, which managed 5 PTA points for $7 in July-September leagues. Two or three good PTA movies at $15 or less (most often less) will surely suffice; the rest of your PTA points can come from your wide-release films. If you pick too many films chiefly for PTA, your totals in that category (and in IMDb score, most likely) will sparkle, but your box office totals and top 5 points will lag behind, and to win, you want to be strong in every category.
4. In Box Office leagues, don't confine yourself to strictly wide releases.
A film that opens on a limited number of screens at first may eventually expand and make more money than some of the films that open big and have smaller screen counts in each progressive week. What's great is, movies that open small often have small price tags to match, so this could be a fine way to spend those last few dollars. If the film opens on just a few screens in one of the season's first weekends, it'll almost certainly expand wide enough to earn some decent dough in the two months that follow (especially if the filmmakers, producers, and distributors are angling for awards consideration), and it may even be a better option than some of the other cheap movies that get wide releases. This goes for all Moguls seasons, but can be especially helpful in the fall and early winter leagues. Take last year as an example: Babel, released on the final weekend in October, made just under $400,000 in that first weekend, but ended up with $29 million by the end of January, more than wide releases Van Wilder 2 ($4 million), Turistas ($7 million), and Unaccompanied Minors ($16 million), to name just three. Opponents may question your reasoning for picking a smaller movie in a league based on box office revenue, but they won't be laughing quite so hard when that little film provides your margin of victory, now will they?
3. Check your opponents' lineups to see what everyone else thinks will be big.
Sometimes, you'll find one film that's common to nearly everyone's lineup, and if that one looks to be a pretty big force to be reckoned with at the box office, you may almost be forced to pick it up just to keep pace. You might also find that you're the only one with a certain movie, and thus, anything that movie does benefits you and only you. (In one of my Ultimate leagues, this very thing happened to me just this weekend — I was the only player who had PTA winner The Nines on my slate.) If nearly everyone picks the same film as their biggie of the season, you can alter your strategy and pick a different cornerstone for your slate. (As another personal example, I'm also playing in a league where I'm the only one with The Heartbreak Kid, and another where I'm the only one who's chosen The Brave One.) Checking your opponents' lineups also makes it more likely that you'll notice changes they make, which leads me right into ...
2. Be open to changing your slate.
If you're falling behind in, say, box office revenue and Top 5 points, but are doing just fine in the PTA category, by all means, reshuffle your lineup to get some bigger earners onto it. You may have to sacrifice a bit in the IMDb score category, but perhaps you can spare that bit to get the box office boost — it's all about balance. If you notice nobody else in your league has one certain movie in their lineups, and that movie looks like a solid option, you could make sure you've got it just so that you (and only you) get the benefit. Watch the early tracking numbers for a read on how your films might do, and if one is tracking poorly, drop it and pick up something else; you definitely don't want to be stuck with the next The Nanny Diaries ($28 cost in August-October Box Office leagues, and it's earned just $16 million thus far ... boy, was I wrong about that one). Along those same lines, if the tracking is much hotter than anticipated for an upcoming release, maybe you want to think about making room for it on your slate. I like to reevaluate each of my slates each week after totals are updated on Tuesday; I identify which categories I need the most help in and see if I can find a way to boost those categories, whether it's adding something new, "upgrading" one of my movies to another with some of the $100 I may not have used, or just waiting 'til one of the films I'd already chosen hits theaters. When choosing your slate, your first impulses are a good way to start, but with research, tracking data, and a willingness to change, you just might find that gem that could make all the difference.
And lastly, here it is; the statement I consider to be the most important ingredient in a recipe for Moguls victory. Drum roll, please:
1. Split up your budget; don't spend most of your funds on one movie.
No matter how big it's going to be, you can ALWAYS find cheaper options that will perform almost as well for in some cases half the cost. Case in point: in July-September Box Office leagues, many players took Transformers or Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, even though both cost $75. Transformers has made $310 million thus far, but the combination of The Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 has brought in about $325 million after this weekend's totals, and those two movies in that same league would have cost the owner only $53. That leaves much more room to pick another mid-priced film or three for some more solid revenue, and I'd be willing to bet that once September draws to a close, the winners of those leagues will more often than not be the ones who avoided the $75 Moguls Monsters. If you pick two movies that each do two-thirds the business of the Monster, but each only costs half as much, then you've got four-thirds, comfortably more than the production of the Monster, for the same price, and that's just smart business. (And no, my capitalization of Monster doesn't mean I've secretly written this whole column in a code about J.J. Abrams's super secret January monster movie. Or does it? Heh, heh, heh ... ) Instead of having one or two expensive biggies on your slate and relying on iffy cheap fillers for the rest, splitting up your budget allows you to have a strong slate from start to finish, and that's just what you need to become a Moguls champion.
That's all for this week; good luck in the new season! I've got to go answer the phone; it's probably one of the networks with a sitcom offer. Hey, if a caveman character from an insurance commercial can get his own show, why not an Internet movie columnist?
Mister Informative is ready for his close-up. And for TV stardom. And for his 15 minutes of fame. And to see his face on a collectible beverage glass at Burger King. Potential agents and invited to pitch their services to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.


Great article this week!
Posted by: A_Roode | September 04, 2007 at 03:32 PM
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Posted by: tallgirl | September 16, 2007 at 10:39 PM