I suspect this picture will hold up exceedingly well in coming weeks because it skews 25-plus, and that crowd never turns out en masse for opening weekend, but it will be an uphill battle at the box office. 3:10 to Yuma could conceivably get to $35 million domestic, but its budget was a reported $50 million. Year-end recognition from critics organizations and some Golden Globe and Oscar buzz would dramatically improve the film's commercial prospects, but it may have been released too early to hold on to many screens into the awards season.

Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) finished second for the day with $3.84 million, and Michael Myers is No. 2 for the weekend as well, with an estimated $8.79 million. Superbad (Sony) picked up $2.9 million on Saturday, and its likely $7.31 million weekend lifts the Judd Apatow-produced, Seth Rogen-written comedy above the $100 million mark. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) was fifth on Saturday with $2.44 million, but the Matt Damon thriller will most likely be No. 4 for the three-day with $5.89 million or so. Holdover Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) was stronger than expected Saturday, with $2.47 million, but it appears that the ping-pong comedy will be forced to settle for fifth for this frame.

New Line's Shoot 'Em Up was up by a few percentage points Friday-to-Saturday, but its estimated $2.07 million made it only No. 7 for the day. I'm projecting that the Clive Owen-Paul Giamatti action pic will have banked $5.73 million by Monday morning, making it only the sixth-best three-day performer. That is, however, a far better fate than The Brothers Solomon (Sony) has suffered. Playing on 700 screens, this misguided comedy will wrap the weekend with just $510,000 or $728 per location.

As for new specialty releases, the PTA winner will be a surprise. John Turturro's Romance & Cigarettes, a musical starring James Gandolfini, Kate Winslet and Susan Sarandon, opened on one screen on Friday, and the film has grabbed a blazing three-day weekend PTA of $16,000. Because this movie is being released independently, I didn't catch it in time for my column Friday night. The long-shelved IDP comedy Fierce People will likely finish No. 2 in PTA followed by Thinkfilm's Oscar contender In the Shadow of the Moon from Ron Howard, Richard Gere's The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) and the Tibetan fantasy film Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $5.23 million, $1,973 PTA [$9.7 million cume]
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.84 million, $1,105 PTA [$41 million cume]
3. Superbad (Sony) — $2.9 million, $946 PTA [$100.9 million cume]
4. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $2.47 million, $802 PTA [$22.7 million cume]
5. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $2.44 million, $744 PTA [$208.6 million cume]
6. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $2.28 million, $849 PTA [$127.4 million cume]
7. NEW Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $2.07 million, $982 PTA [$4 million cume]
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $1.51 million, $852 PTA [$24 million cume]
9. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.4 million, $575 PTA [$20 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $766,000, $539 PTA [$34 million cume]
NEW The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $188,100, $269 PTA [$378,100 cume]
NEW Hatchet (Anchor Bay) — $31,000, $379 PTA [$71,400 cume]
NEW The Bubble (Strand Releasing) — $15,000, $1,500 PTA [$24,000 cume]
NEW In the Shadow of the Moon (Thinkfilm) — $15,670, $3,918 PTA [$35,850 cume]
NEW The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — $15,000, $3,750 PTA [$32,000 cume]
NEW Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $6,865, $6,865 PTA [$12,354 cume]
NEW Fierce People (IDP Releasing) — $8,481, $4,240 PTA [$14,955 cume]
NEW Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — $2,769, $2,769 PTA [$5,916 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $14.23 million, $5,366 PTA [$14.23 million cume]
2. Halloween (MGM/Weinstein) — $8.79 million, $2,532 PTA [$42.9 million cume]
3. Superbad (Sony) — $7.31 million, $2,384 PTA [$102.9 million cume]
4. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — $5.89 million, $1,791 PTA [$210.5 million cume]
5. Balls of Fury (Rogue Releasing) — $5.87 million, $1,906 PTA [$24.4 million cume]
6. NEW Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $5.73 million, $2,721 PTA [$5.73 million cume]
7. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — $5.22 million, $1,941 PTA [$128.9 million cume]
8. Mr. Bean's Holiday (Universal) — $3.43 million, $1,929 PTA [$25.1 million cume]
8. The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.34 million, $1,367 PTA [$21 million cume]
10. Stardust (Paramount) — $1.78 million, $1,256 PTA [$34.5 million cume]
NEW The Brothers Solomon (Sony) — $510,000, $728 PTA [$510,000 cume]
NEW Hatchet (Anchor Bay) $92,500, $1,128 PTA [$92,500 cume]
NEW In the Shadow of the Moon (Thinkfilm) — $35,850, $8,963 PTA [$35,850 cume]
NEW The Hunting Part (MGM/Weinstein) — $35,000, $8,750 PTA [$35,000 cume]
NEW The Bubble (Strand Releasing) — $34,840, $3,484 PTA [$34,840 cume]
NEW Fierce People (IDP Releasing) — $21,300, $10,658 PTA [$21,300 cume
NEW Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $16,000, $16,000 PTA [$16,000 cume]
NEW Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — $7,855, $7,855 PTA [$7,855 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $16,000 PTA
2. NEW Fierce People (IDP Releasing) — $10,658 PTA
3. NEW In the Shadow of the Moon (Thinkfilm) — $8,963 PTA
4. NEW The Hunting Party (MGM/Weinstein) — $8,750 PTA
5. NEW Milarepa: Magician (Luminous Velocity) — $7,855 PTA
6. NEW 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $5,489 PTA
7. NEW The Unknown Soldier (First Run Features) — $3,570 PTA
8. NEW The Bubble (Strand Releasing) — $3,484 PTA
9. Deep Water (IFC Films) — $3,023 PTA
10. NEW Shoot 'Em Up (New Line) — $2,721 PTA