BARD'S EYE VIEW SPECIAL EDITION: Lucky 13 or Winners For Every Single Weekend of The November-January Fantasy Moguls Game
by Shrykespeare
Greeting fellow Moguls, and welcome to this SPECIAL EDITION of Bard's Eye View, where I, your beloved laureate, will be dispensing with my usual format and traveling down a heretofore untrodden road. At the behest of my editor (and heck, even Shakespeare himself had to answer to somebody, after all), I and the other Fantasy Moguls columnists (Mr. Informative, Indie Jones, and the glorious return of our wayward rodent, Nicodemus) will be bringing you something very special in order to give you all the heads-up regarding the entirety of the fast-approaching beginning to the November-to-January leagues.
If all goes according to Hoyle, then you'll be reading Mr. Informative's "Bargain Basement" column, where he pinpoints the 10 best picks in the Box Office Moguls and Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues for $5 or less, on Thursday or Friday. Indie Jones will be revealing what he believes to be the 15 best Ultimate picks among arthouse flicks, as well as the five best arthouse picks with the potential to make a splash in Box Office leagues. Additionally, Nico's new column "Bank For Your Buck" will debut, where our favorite former ex-columnist will outline for you which are the biggest bargains of the upcoming season.
And I? Well, I have been given the arduous (yeah, right) task of picking what I believe to be the "weekend winners" in the Box Office (and, by extension, Top 5) and PTA categories for the entire 13-week span of the league, from Nov. 2 until Jan. 25. (Heavy sigh.) So, before I put my neck out there on the chopping block with my learned-predictions-cum-wild-stabs-in-the-dark, let me add these disclaimers: As most of you know, many, many movies end up having their release dates changed; they can be moved up, pushed back, or pulled entirely from the schedule, and the further out a film's scheduled release date is, the more susceptible to change it is. All it would take is one or two key postponements to throw all my predictions into a tizzy, so be forewarned. These are the best guesses I can make as of right now, with the lineup laid out before me that both Fantasy Moguls and Box Office Mojo agree upon. Additionally, there is, unfortunately, no way for me to know how large a release a particular film is going to get from two weeks to three months down the line, so take that into consideration as well. Now, that being said, let's get this show on the road:
Weekend 1: Nov. 2-4
I fully expect Bee Movie to go off like a house afire. It's the first fun-for-the-whole-family film to be released since The Game Plan. It's Dreamworks (the people who brought you Shrek and Madagascar). It's the only 100 percent animated PG-and-under film coming out in the next two months. I expect it to cash in heavily on its opening weekend, to the tune of about $65 million. American Gangster, riding a tidal wave of hype, will open on significantly fewer screens, but easily take the No. 2 spot with about $25-$35 million. Saw IV and 30 Days of Night will vie with the other newcomer, Martian Child, for the last three spots.
In PTA, the heavily-hyped Darfur Now is opening only in Los Angeles and New York, and even though this film is highly priced at $20, it could easily win the crown in its opening weekend, if it can brush past Bee and Gangster. On the other hand, it's possible that the biggest surprise might come from musical indie bio Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten.
Weekend 2: Nov. 9-11
Despite the fact that Fred Claus, by far the biggest wide release of the season with a definitive "Christmas" theme, is being released this particular weekend, I don't think it will have the chops to dislodge Seinfeld's Bee Movie from its throne. I look for Bee to pull in a further $35-40 million in its second weekend, just barely ahead of Fred, which will garner around $25-30. Gangster will tussle with Lions For Lambs for the No. 3 spot, and Saw IV will make its last gasp in the Top 5 right here.
In PTA, there is no doubt in my mind that No Country For Old Men, which is opening in limited release this weekend, will win the PTA crown. Darfur Now could hold on in the Top 5 for a second week, depending on the size of "Top 10 Markets" expansion, but if its buzz is underwhelming, look for a surprise from Indie Jones favorite Saawariya.
Weekend 3: Nov. 16-18
Well, duh. Beowulf will take its first steps toward being the Top 5 champion of the season (you'll see why shortly). Look for an opening week of around $40-50 million for director Robert Zemeckis's latest. Bee Movie and Fred Claus will drop to second and third, respectively, pulling in about $18 million and $15 million (also respectively). The only other major release, Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium, will underwhelm with only a $10 million opening, which may or may not outdo Gangster in its third week.
In PTA, the champ is very difficult to call this week. Beowulf could be up there, as could No Country (expanding slightly from its opening week). But I'll give the upset victory to Margot at the Wedding, which is already garnering a whole lot of praise. Love in the Time of Cholera is an iffy prospect, and the way-out-there Southland Tales will only figure if its release size is kept to a minimum.
Weekend 4: Nov. 21-25
Three new films will be given wide-release openings on the day before Thanksgiving, but none of them will be able to knock Beowulf from his lofty perch. I expect the animated Viking saga will pull in a further $35 million or so over the five-day weekend. But this is such a crowded weekend, it's tough to gauge how the rest will shake out. Hit Man, being the only pure action movie of the season, should pull in Resident Evil-type numbers and grab the No. 2 spot with around $25 million for the five days, with cutesy-poo Enchanted running a close third (at around $20-22 million). Bee Movie may be tailing off by now, and Gangster might just continue to pick up steam, and both will duel with Stephen King's latest adaptation The Mist for the last two spots in the Top 5.
With only one limited release on tap for this weekend, look for highly-acclaimed Bob Dylan anti-bio bio I'm Not There to take the lead. The rest of the Top 5 will probably be repeats from the previous week, including Margot, No Country, and maybe even Beowulf. PTA is tough to calculate over a five-day weekend, but the schedule is so sparse ...
Weekend 5: Nov. 30-Dec.2
The only big film scheduled to debut on the final weekend of November is the Jessica Alba-Hayden Christensen thriller Awake, but since it's not even listed on the November roster, I'll just ignore it (like, I suspect, most filmgoers will). Look for the Top 5 to remain pretty much the same as the previous week otherwise. (In other words, here comes Beowulf, again.)
For the limited releases, on the other hand, I can only say: Now we're cookin' with gas. The Savages, whose User Rating is already robust in the mid-8's, seems poised to jump to the top, as the buzz has already started to build. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and The Protagonist could make a dent as well, especially if their theater counts are in the single digits. I'm Not There may factor in for a second week, and it may just be that you choose to ignore the Demi Moore/Michael Caine crime thriller Flawless at your own peril.
Weekend 6: Dec. 7-9
And thus begins the biggest non-summer movie month of the year, with what could likely be the big winner of the entire winter season: The Golden Compass. Despite the failure of Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig's last outing, The Invasion, and despite the supposed "Christian" backlash against this film, I think it is going to open to huge acclaim and huger audiences. Look for upwards of $75-85 million on its opening weekend. There is literally nothing else coming out widely this week, so look for Hitman, Enchanted and Beowulf to rack up a few more Top 5 points.
Given that Fantasy Moguls has deemed Atonement worthy of a 12-PTA-point prediction, it's hard not to go with this one to win the weekend. Given that some critics have ALREADY pegged this film as next year's Best Picture winner, this one might be around for a while. (Of course, it's the priciest piece of real estate in the limited-release market, so buy at your own risk.) Juno, The Walker and Grace is Gone might be in contention here as well, and The Golden Compass could give any who own it a double bonus in this rather limited weekend.
Weekend 7: Dec. 14-16
And thus, the Battle Royale is joined — I Am Legend arrives to duel Golden Compass for supremacy. Will Smith's last-man-on-Earth saga will doubtless win the weekend, pulling in numbers comparable to Compass's from the week before, and Compass will pull in a very respectable $40 million or so in its second week. Newcomer Alvin and the Chipmunks, despite being critically reviled, will come in third with an Underdog-like $18 million.
Ooh, this is a tough week to call for PTA. You've got no less than four limited-releases with top-shelf PTA potential, including the return of a couple of legendary directors: Francis Ford Coppola brings us Youth Without Youth, which I will give the tentative nod to based on its really awesome trailer; Brian DePalma's Redacted could also score big. Then, you've also got the pricy The Kite Runner bowing in theaters, along with Nanking, which could also surprise. Oh, and I Am Legend too, of course. Good luck sorting this one out, people.
Weekend 8: Dec. 21-23
A potential blockbuster debuts for the third week in a row (kind of reminds you of last May, doesn't it?) with National Treasure: Book of Secrets. I think this will probably take the No. 1 spot, but only with about $45 million on its opening weekend. Legend and Compass will take the silver and bronze, respectively, and a pair of newcomers (Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story and P.S. I Love You) will round out the Top 5.
I'm thinking Sweeney Todd will get a limited roll-out before it expands to multiplexes across America, and if that happens, it's a virtual shoo-in to take the PTA crown. Of course, it will have all of the previous week's contenders to deal with as well, not to mention the extreme-sports documentary Steep, which will more than likely bow on only a few screens.
Weekend 9: Dec. 25-30
Four fairly sizable films are debuting on Christmas Day (Tuesday), and any one of them could catch fire once the unwrapping is finished, but I don't think any will top National Treasure in its second week. Given that most kids have the week off, look for Nic Cage to pull in a further $35 million over the (?) six-day weekend. Legend and Compass will still be going strong, but will have to tussle with Charlie Wilson's War, Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem, The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep and The Bucket List. This is going to be a toss-up, but pay close attention to theater counts and early reviews before making up your mind.
Thursday and Friday, on the other hand, belongs to the smaller films. With the big money diluted so heavily, look for Woody Allen's latest project Cassandra's Dream to step up and be noticed, followed closely by the heavily anticipated There Will Be Blood. Persepolis was a big hit overseas, so it's chances are iffy (but far from hopeless), and even The Orphanage might be a source for cheap PTA points.
Weekend 10: Jan. 4-6
Most of you know that January tends to be a frozen wasteland for new movies, with prestige expansions and December holdovers dominating ticket sales. This first month of 2008 looks to be no exception. The only things on the docket for this weekend are buddy movie College and B-grade horror flick One Missed Call. Either might crack the Top 5 in its opening weekend, but it won't be very high. Look for a lot of holdover business from the second half of December — who's got legs? Toss-up. Who's got PTA? Ditto. Pay careful attention to screen counts.
Weekend 11: Jan. 11-13
It's not Judd Apatow, but Katherine Heigl is back with another romantic comedy. 27 Dresses won't do anywhere near what Knocked Up did this past June, but I'm sure it will bring in more than enough viewers who remember her fondly for that performance. It should at least be tops among new releases. First Sunday may pull in some respectable numbers, but it'll be accompanied by terrible User Ratings. The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything will pull in numbers akin to 2007's Happily N'Ever After (translation: not good), and In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale will pull in typical numbers for an Uwe Boll picture (translation: even worse). The Killing of John Lennon is the only scheduled arthouse flick on the list so far, but that could change.
Weekend 12: Jan. 18-20
The biggest question, by a country mile, regarding January is going to be, "What is up with Untitled J.J. Abrams Project?" We've all seen the trailer, we've all read the scuttlebutt, and when it finally comes time for the big unveiling, I have to wonder: Will anyone care anymore? I can appreciate that surrounding this film with such an air of mystery adds to its appeal, but come on. It's only two months away and it still doesn't have a NAME. Methinks Mr. Abrams might be carrying this a mite too far. That being said, look for Cloverdale (or whatever) to break the record for a January opening; I won't even venture a guess as to how much. It'll win the weekend by a huge margin, and comedies Mad Money and Fanboys will battle with 27 Dresses (and maybe even 1 or 2 of those prestige expansions and December holdovers) for the leftovers. City of Men, a foreign film, is the only new arthouse release.
Weekend 13: Jan. 25-27
The second B-grade horror flick of the month, Untraceable, will find itself on the back end of the Top 5 this week, behind the quirky-looking Jack Black comedy Be Kind, Rewind. 27 Dresses may hang on for one more week, and the long-awaited return of John Rambo might be fortunate enough to bring in $20-million-plus in its first three days. They'll all still get smoked by Untitled J.J. Abrams, though. PTA? Who knows?
And there you have it; three months of prognostications, drawn from the sub-ether to guide you along your path to Mogul-istic victory. (Of course, if it turns out I'm totally out to sea on these predictions, I hereby disavow any knowledge of my actions. This column will self destruct in five seconds ... ) Please return next week when I go back to my usual format, by critiquing the mega-slate of films set to open Nov. 21. It's a full rack of eight balls: video-game action/thriller Hit Man; The Mist, the latest cinematic offering to spring from the sunken depths of Stephen King's mind; Enchanted, where a cartoon fairy-tale princess winds up in 3-D New York; uplifting family drama August Rush; and Christmas in Wonderland, a Christmas comedy/heist movie that will have everyone wishing that Macaulay Culkin were still alive. Erm, uh, well, you know what I mean.
KABOOM!!!!
Shrykespeare thinks it's time to go all in with J.J. Abrams Does Godzilla, or maybe J.J. Abrams's Godzilla, or possibly even That Damn Thing From Lost Finally Got Off the Island and It's REALLY Mad. Send your own suggestions to shrykespeare@gmail.com. As soon as J.J. phones or writes, the S-Man will be sure to pass along the list.


Only one quick mention for Charlie Wilson? Tom Hanks is an amazing pull at the domestic box office. With a little hype over the next month and a half is it out of the the realm of possibility that he could carry another 100M vehicle?
Posted by: Andrew Adams | October 30, 2007 at 10:38 AM
Firstly, great article, Shryke- a damn fine way of plotting my strategy!
I agree with Andrew, with Sorkin scripting and a Hanks/Roberts combo, CWW could make big bucks with some Oscar Buzz.
I also think you underestimate Enchanted. Hitman will take a...er... hit from Beowulf's audiences. Enchanted is opening to 3500 screens and its getting a mighty fine buzz- it could possible take the top spot with 30mil, or place 2nd at the very least.
Posted by: numbersix_99 | October 30, 2007 at 01:04 PM
great column, Shryke...
do you think that negative reviews will have ANY impact on bee movie's success? i think critics aren't getting an early screening for a reason....... but quality isn't always a factor for kids movies (see: The Game Plan)
and do you really think Beowulf can do THAT well? I mean, i'm rootin for it.... but it looks like a potential disaster to me... i don't think people over 40 are turned off by any type of animation.. and people under 40 probably haven't been waiting on the edge of their seat for the next Beowulf adaptation
Posted by: nikolai | October 30, 2007 at 01:24 PM
er, i meant to say that i DO think that people over 40 are turned off by animation
Posted by: nikolai | October 30, 2007 at 01:25 PM
I'll just make a few quick critiques on Shryke's predicts, simply using overrated or underrated, cuz I feel a bit lazy today...
Bee Movie-overrated
Beowulf-overrated
Magorium-underrated (it won't flop THAT badly)
Juno-hugely underrated (barely recognised)
The Golden Compass-hugely overrated (no chance it'll do bigger 'Christian backlash' numbers than The Da Vinci Code)
I Am Legend-overrated (will be successful but no chance of $75-$80mil)
National Treasure 2-underrated (surely more than $45mil OW, IMO will do even better than IAL & TGC)
Alien vs Predator 2-underrated (will get AT LEAST #2 if not #1 against NT2)
Cloverfield-overrated (looking at it this way, may have a huge OW, but 2nd week if Rambo IV gets $20mil, won't beat that, big drop in 2nd week for 'fanboy' movie, so to speak)
Everything else seems about right though...
Well, I sure went on, didn't I?
Posted by: annyonggob888 | October 31, 2007 at 12:19 AM
November:
I think Lions For Lambs will bomb. It has an Iraq plotline, which is box office poison for wide release, and Tom Cruise trying to save his career. $12 million opening, $30 million finish.
I see Hitman being a failure as well. One: it's a video game adaptation for a game that really wasn't as popular as say, Grand Theft Auto or Halo. Second, The Mist opens the same weekend and Beowulf will be in its second week. $11 million opening, $25 million finish.
The Mist will do better than expected. 1408 was a surprise hit and when Darabont and King team up, critical and audience acclaim is high. $16 million opening, $53 million finish.
December:
The Golden Compass won't do Narnia numbers. I believe audiences are getting tired of having a fantasy film based on a novel open every month or two (look at The Seeker). It's more of a legs film. $45 million opening, $160 million finish.
I see Alvin and The Chipmunks having an Underdog-sized opening ($11-13 million) with an Eragon-sized second week drop (65-70%).
National Treasure 2 I don't see being a major hit. First, I don't remember many people asking for a sequel to National Treasure. And second, I don't think there is enough plot to sustain a sequel. $35 million opening, $90 million finish.
Walk Hard I think will be the surprise hit of the holiday season. It's from the producer of Knocked Up and Superbad (among others) and follows in the vein of Anchorman and Talladega Nights. Plus, the film is a parody of Walk The Line, which did major numbers in 2005. And the trailer I think is one of the year's best. $29 million opening, $135 million finish.
I also agree with Charlie Wilson's War being a hit. You've got Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts and a Christmas spot. Two of the most popular actors, plus a Christmas release date and a feel-good plotline equal big bucks. $27 million opening, $105 million finish.
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem will bomb, even with positive fan reaction. Fans hated the original and others don't see the point in a sequel. Plus, horror and Christmas don't fit well (look at last year's Black Christmas). $13 million opening, $35 million finish.
January:
27 Dresses looks of low quality, but will make money nonetheless. $18 million opening, $50 million finish.
The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything has a built-in fanbase from church groups and people who buy the Veggie Tales videos, DVD's and other merchandise. Plus, the previous Veggie Tales film made $25 million. $13 million opening, $32 million finish.
Cloverfield (the J.J. Abrams project) is just one of those ideas that shouldn't have been resurrected. It's just a sci-fi oriented version of The Blair Witch Project. Plus, not giving a title in the trailer just puts the general public on the wrong foot. $9 million opening, $20 million finish.
Fanboys won't do much better that day. It's been delayed multiple times and it's likely the same retreaded jokes about Star Trek geeks that we've been hearing for the past thirty years. Another bomb for the Weinsteins (and Seth Rogen in three roles won't change that). $3.5 million opening, $8 million finish.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | October 31, 2007 at 12:32 AM
The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything doing better than Cloverfield?
*shrugs*, okay then whatever...
Posted by: annyonggob888 | October 31, 2007 at 01:26 AM
WOW! Thats a bold statement MM. Cloverfield will easily pass 20M first weekend.
135M for 'Dewey'!!?!, that would be great but without the remainder of the Shake N' Bake team, unlikely.
Posted by: aadams | October 31, 2007 at 07:10 AM
Yeah, I think that the Pirates Who Don't Do Anything will do better than you give it credit. The first one didn't open too wide and still did comparitively well. VeggieTales is still quite popular with the Sunday School crowd, and so you can assume that this film will get a wider release.
Posted by: leo | November 01, 2007 at 01:20 PM