EARLY TRACKING: 'Beowulf' Tracking Like a Four-Quadrant Blockbuster Event! Digital 3D Could Drive It to $50M-plus Opening Weekend!
by Steve Mason
Paramount's Beowulf has popped onto the film industry tracking with some very impressive numbers. Based on the epic poem read by many a high school student, this Robert Zemeckis-directed adaptation is set for release on Nov. 16, and with a huge IMAX push along with over 700 traditional locations offering Digital 3D, this action/fantasy should generate a fantastic opening.
My sources tell me that Paramount has burned only 20 percent of its massive marketing budget, yet Beowulf, starring Angelina Jolie, Ray Winstone (The Departed), Sir Anthony Hopkins and John Malkovich among others, is at 4 percent Un-Aided Awareness as of 19 days prior to release. That's stronger than 2006 release Casino Royale (3 percent) and on par with February's Ghost Rider (4 percent) at the same point in their marketing cycles. Un-Aided Awareness is an excellent measure of buzz, and, even early in the game, Beowulf has got it.
I'm using Casino Royale ($40.8 million opening, $167.4 million cume) and Ghost Rider ($45.3 million opening, $115.8 million cume) as comparables for Beowulf. Both are big budget PG-13-rated spectacles, although Ghost Rider was more geared for Males Under 25 and Casino Royale had the advantage of being the latest installment in a legendary franchise. Beowulf already has a Total Aware of 67 percent, nearly matching the 69 percent Awareness scored by Casino Royale and in the neighborhood of Ghost Rider’s 77 percent at 19 days out. In terms of Definite Interest, Beowulf compares very favorably to those two blockbusters as well.
DEFINITE INTEREST
Ghost Rider — 36 percent
(Males Under 25, 50 percent; Males 25 Plus, 36 percent; Females Under 25, 29 percent; Females 25 Plus, 27 percent)
Casino Royale — 35 percent
(Males Under 25, 47 percent; Males 25 Plus, 41 percent; Females Under 25, 22 percent; Females 25 Plus, 27 percent)
Beowulf — 34 percent
(Males Under 25, 39 percent; Males 25 Plus, 34 percent; Females Under 25, 30 percent; Females 25 Plus, 32 percent)
Although, it's a bit early to analyze First Choice numbers, it's safe to say that Beowulf is on track for a monstrous opening. Especially impressive is the Definite Interest among women, actually considerably stronger at this point than for Casino Royale and Ghost Rider. Beowulf has a chance to be a big, fat four-quadrant smash.
The 3D approach will be a huge boon for Beowulf business. Back in 2004, Polar Express was released on over 3,500 screens including 62 3D IMAX runs. Of the $162.7 million domestic take, an estimated 20 percent-25 percent was generated from those 3D runs, and the lifetime PTA of the 3D locations was 14 times that of traditional venues. Hundreds of theaters are in the process of adding Digital 3D, either from Dolby or from a company called Reel D, in order to show Beowulf. The current number of Beowulf 3D locations is estimated at 700, but it will most likely be a higher number, possibly considerably higher.
If Beowulf was a traditional film, tracking suggests it would be a hit. When you add 3D IMAX and all of those 700+ 3D digital engagements to the mix, it's a blockbuster event. It's safe to talk about $50 milllion-plus for opening weekend, and as we get closer to the Nov. 16 release date, that target could be headed north.
So after hearing everyone saying its not worth the risk because of the high price, do you think the reward is going to be high enough to warrant spending the type of money that fantasy moguls has this film priced at?
Posted by: Tye Copeland | October 30, 2007 at 10:39 AM
What were all of those Fantasy Moguls columns talking about, then, saying that Beowulf would flop and barely make it to $100M?
I thought it could do well.
Posted by: J.I. | October 30, 2007 at 01:14 PM
Still not worth spending upwards of $40 on it in the leagues, I don't think. It may be huge, but tying up that much of the $100 budget in one movie is just too risky, and doesn't leave you much room for much more than other mid-level hit.
Posted by: dranscht | October 30, 2007 at 03:04 PM
Wait, wah?? I simply don't understand the buzz and tracking re: Beowulf. I don't know a single person who's interested in this movie. I'm especially shocked by the interest from women. At least Casino Royale and Ghost Rider had visible female draws (2 Evas: Green and Mendes), and strong male stars. Are women excited to see semi-naked digital Angelina? From personal experience, women seem the most averse to digital humans and video-game graphics, what's different now? Or are they drawn to never-heard-of-him-before Ray Winston? I'm really flabbergasted.
Posted by: la_resistance28 | October 31, 2007 at 12:10 AM
Never heard of Ray Winstone? He's in lots of stuff! (Did you even see The Departed?) Plus while some people hate Angelina, others want to be her. When she does this type of film (such as Tomb Raider or Mr. and Mrs. Smith), men and women flock.
300 didn't have any visible names (Gerard Butler was known, but not THAT known) or a female demographic and it made over $200 million. Beowulf could be considered an animated 300, only based on a more-known source material. And it's been anticipated for years by fantasy fans, historical buffs and people amazed by 3-D as well as fans of Robert Zemeckis and Crispin Glover (who plays Grendel and is reportedly the scene-stealer).
Others claim motion capture is creepy and will never be successful. They just aren't giving it a chance. The last major motion capture film, The Polar Express, was a blockbuster and is a yearly reissue staple. And Beowulf couldn't work any other way than motion capture. Imagine PDI or Blue Sky doing this? Impossible. Just my two cents.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | October 31, 2007 at 05:27 PM
Just a reminder guys, tracking just tells you how well the MARKETING of the movie is going. It doesn't necessarily mean it'll translate into big #s. It might, it might not.
Posted by: Carter | October 31, 2007 at 09:34 PM
Despite the tracking, I still think "Beowulf" will struggle against the competition.
Posted by: Stephen | November 01, 2007 at 10:26 AM
I mean...not only is the price a HUGE chunk of the $100 budget...I don't really think you can compare it to a movie like Ghost Rider...that really had no competition at the time, and which simply had a bigger following. As many people as I know who do not like Nicolas Cage as an actor...just wanted to see it because of the comic book following. Beowulf on the other hand has a lot going against it. It's animated...which 300 was not, so I don't see why these are being compared so closely...and it simply just has a lot of movies that people can go see instead.
Posted by: Walt4141 | November 14, 2007 at 03:27 PM
300 was shot entirely with blue/green screens. Beowulf also used that along with motion capture (the actors were filmed in live-action and then were animated, similar to rotoscope). Both are highly stylized historical fantasy/action films. Both also have IMAX releases. That's just a few similarities between Beowulf and 300.
Posted by: Matthew Martin | November 15, 2007 at 08:07 PM
The early return is now suggesting a mid-20 opening. The online buzz was quite inflated on this one because of its targeted audience.
Posted by: xiayun | November 16, 2007 at 02:10 PM