If both Bee Movie and American Gangster can top $40 million next weekend, a real possibility, it will mark only the third time in modern box office history that two movies have opened that big on the same day. The double $40 million opening feat was first accomplished back in 2005 when The Longest Yard grabbed a $47.6 million opening and Madagascar delivered a $47.2 million weekend. The trick was duplicated last November, when Happy Feet scored a three-day of $41.5 million opposite Sony's Casino Royale with $40.8 million during the same frame.

American Gangster has a dramatically better tracking performance, 10 days away from release, than last year's Best Picture Oscar winner, The Departed (Warner Bros.), had at the same point of its advance campaign. I'm told that the gritty, R-rated Oscar contender has 8 percent Un-Aided Awareness compared to the 3 percent mark posted by the Scorsese crime drama. Un-Aided Awareness is the best tracking measure for audience buzz. It means that moviegoers surveyed are talking about Gangster with no prompting.

Everybody seems to know about American Gangster with a Total Aware of 82 percent. That's considerably stronger than this week's openers, Saw IV (Lionsgate) and Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista), both at just 55 percent. The Departed had only 65 percent Awareness 10 days prior to release, so the marketing department at Universal is clearly doing its job with great efficiency and effectiveness.

Definite Interest for Gangster is already at 53 percent, with a staggering 61 percent of Males Under 25 saying that they want to see it. The movie is at 55 percent with Males 25 Plus and, an especially impressive 45 percent of Females Under 25, and 49 percent of Females 25 Plus, say that they're open to seeing it. At the same point in its marketing cycle, The Departed was at a dramatically weaker 43 percent Overall Definite Interest score, with Under 25 Males and Females both in the mid-30s.

In the all-important First Choice column, American Gangster is already at an excellent 17 percent, which is better than the current 15 percent number for Saw IV (Lionsgate), opening this week. Especially impressive is the 28 percent First Choice with Males Under 25. That's the "money demo," meaning that young men tend to show up at the local multiplex.

Denzel Washington's last movie, Déjà Vu from last Thanksgiving, had a day-of-opening Total Aware of 82 percent, Definite Interest of 42 percent and First Choice of 15 percent, so, already, Gangster is in better shape, and much of Universal's marketing "powder" is still dry. Once the television airwaves are filled with an even higher saturation of ads, all of American Gangster's tracking numbers will get that much better.

Only disastrous reviews could derail this movie, and, as of today (Oct. 24), the film has an early 100 percent Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. Early reviews are positive, although shy of the near-perfect reviews for The Departed. Peter Travers from Rolling Stone, for example, calls this "the black Scarface,"and says, that "American Gangster is already looking like a major awards contender."

Washington's last movie, Déjà Vu, opened on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and went on to a five-day of $28.6 million. Meanwhile, The Departed opened on a Friday with an $8.6 million take, which translated to a $26.8 million opening three-day. Gangster is going to be in a different box office stratosphere.

I'm targeting $12 million-$14 million for opening day next Friday, and $40 million-$45 million for what would be a staggering opening weekend. I will continue to follow the tracking information very closely, but as of now, I'd say that Gangster will win the day next Friday, then Bee Movie will make a strong charge with Saturday and Sunday matinee business. My gut, right now though, tells me that Ridley Scott, Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe will "sting" Seinfeld's Bee for a weekend victory.