As I reported Friday night, the surprise weekend winner is The Game Plan (Buena Vista), which enjoyed an estimated 69 percent Saturday bounce for $7.35 million. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's family flick will likely finish the three-day with $16.92 million. The Kingdom (Universal) is headed for a third place finish with about $9.05 million, followed by Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) with $4.07 million or so.

The other two wide releases are unmitigated disasters. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) probably won't even get to $4 million for the weekend. The PG fantasy film will manage only $1,100 per screen for Friday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the Jennifer Lopez-produced Feel the Noise (Sony) should finish No. 7 for the three-day with just under $3.25 million at 1,015 locations.

Overall, it was a horrible weekend for the industry. In fact, the combined gross for this weekend's Top 12 was only an estimated $63.8 million. That's the worst industry performance for an October weekend since Oct. 29-31 of 1999 ($54.8 million). That also marks a 37 percent drop from the same weekend in October 2006. Last Oct. 6-8, The Departed, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning and Week 2 of Open Season buoyed box office for a Top 12 combined cume of $100.8 million.

There's great news, however, for at least one studio. Warner Bros.'s George Clooney vehicle, Michael Clayton, a legal thriller also starring Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson, debuted at 15 locations on Friday, and it will finish the weekend with over $44,000 per. That gives Michael Clayton one of the Top 75 Per-Theatre Average performances in modern box office history.

The news was also good for Wes Anderson's The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight), which expanded to 19 locations and delivered a three-day PTA of just under $29,000. Ang Lee's Lust, Caution (Focus Features) met with a more muted response. Expanding from 1 to 17 screens, the Chinese language noir thriller grabbed a softer $19,000 or so per location.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $7.35 million, $2,368 PTA [$38.2 million cume]
2. NEW The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $5.17 million, $1,601 PTA [$9.8M
3. The Kingdom (Universal) — $3.76 million, $1,343 PTA [$28.6 million cume]
4. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $1.74 million, $611 PTA [$42.1 million cume]
5. NEW The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $1.48 million, $472 PTA [$2.5M
6. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $1.37 million, $555 PTA [$28 million cume]
7. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $1.27 million, $499 PTA [$47.6 million cume]
8. NEW Feel the Noise (Sony) — $1.25 million, $1,235 PTA [$2.3 million cume]
9. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $980,000, $416 PTA [$33.6 million cume]
10. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $930,000, $477 PTA [$21.8 million cume]
11. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $790,000, $652 PTA [$13.7 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $750,000, $2,050 PTA [$7.4 million cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $585,000, $493 PTA [$1.5 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $485,000, $497 PTA [$4.8 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $390,000, $926 PTA [$316.1 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $360,000, $2,667 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* Feast of Love (MGM) — $283,000, $235 PTA [$2.7 million cume]
* Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $259,000, $17,267 PTA [$443,860
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $215,000, $11,316 PTA [$604,984 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $137,000, $8,059 PTA [$343,134 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $133,000, $2,180 PTA [$571,198 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $16.92 million, $5,450 PTA [$43.4 million cume]
2. NEW The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $13.12 million, $4,065 PTA [$13.12 million cume]
3. The Kingdom (Universal) — $9.05 million, $3,232 PTA [$31 million cume]
4. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $4.07 million, $1,429 PTA [$43.2 million cume]
5. NEW The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $3.49 million, $1,112 PTA [$3.49 million cume]
6. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $3.3 million, $1,333 PTA [$28.8 million cume]
7. NEW Feel the Noise (Sony) — $3.23 million, $3,184 PTA [$3.23 million cume]
8. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $2.88 million, $1,124 PTA [$48.3 million cume]
9. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $2.14 million, $911 PTA [$34.2 million cume]
10. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $2.03 million, $1,044 PTA [$22.3 million cume]
11. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $1.82 million, $1,505 PTA [$14.2 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.75 million, $4,808 PTA [$7.8 million cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $1.39 million, $1,178 PTA [$1.8 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $1.11 million, $1,139 PTA [$5.1 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $862,000, $2,048 PTA [$316.3 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $860,000, $6,370 PTA [$2 million cume]
* Feast of Love (MGM) — $672,000, $559 PTA [$2.9 million cume]
* Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $665,000, $44,333 PTA [$665,000
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $549,000, $28,895 PTA [$777,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $338,000, $19,882 PTA [$446,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $326,000, $5,344 PTA [$665,000 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 15 locations, $17,267 PTA
2. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 19 locations, $11,316 PTA
3. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 17 location, $8,059 PTA
4. NEW Desert Bayou (Cinema Libre) — 1 location, $3,123 PTA
5. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 135 locations, $2,667 PTA
6. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,105 locations, $2,368 PTA
7. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 61 locations, $2,180 PTA
8. NEW The Good Night (Yari Film Group) — 2 locations, $2,106 PTA
9. Across the Universe (Sony) — 364 locations, $2,060 PTA
10. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1,601 PTA
* NEW My Kid Could Paint That (Sony Classics) — 8 locations, $1,500 PTA
* NEW Kurt Cobain About A Son (Balcony Releasing) — 2 locations, $1,465 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAYS PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 15 locations, $44,333 PTA
2. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 19 locations, $28,895 PTA
3. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 17 location, $19,882 PTA
4. NEW Desert Bayou (Cinema Libre) — 1 location, $6,950 PTA
5. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 135 locations, $6,370 PTA
6. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,105 locations, $5,450 PTA
7. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 61 locations, $5,344 PTA
8. NEW The Good Night (Yari Film Group) — 2 locations, $5,250 PTA
9. NEW Kurt Cobain About A Son (Balcony Releasing) — 2 locations, $4,825 PTA
10. Across the Universe (Sony) — 364 locations, $4,808 PTA
* NEW My Kid Could Paint That (Sony Classics) — 8 locations, $3,500 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: The Farrelly Brothers plus Ben Stiller plus Dreamworks should add up to a hit ... but The Heartbreak Kid is a very surprising bomb. As I detailed in my Final Weekend Tracking column Thursday night, this comedy has been suffering from a misguided marketing campaign resulting in soft industry tracking figures, but Kid's Friday take of $4.5 million and its projected $14 million for the weekend is nothing less than shocking.

As I previously reported, The Heartbreak Kid tracking as of Sunday (Sept. 30) showed only 2 percent Un-Aided Awareness compared to 18 percent for Knocked Up prior to its release and 7 percent for Good Luck Chuck on the Sunday prior to its opening. The Stiller film also trailed both of the comparables in Total Awareness with 70 percent (Knocked Up was at 81 percent and Chuck was at 78 percent) and Definite Interest at 31 percent (Good Luck Chuck was at 40 percent and Knocked Up went off at 37 percent).

If you've got a raunchy comedy from the Dumb & Dumber guys and the star of There's Something About Mary, why sell it like a run-of-the-mill romantic comedy? After the summer of Knocked Up and Superbad, you've got to sell this pic as the "raunchfest" it is and not like Music & Lyrics or License to Wed. The end result is that Heartbreak Kid will probably be only the ninth-best opening of Ben Stiller's career:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 BEN STILLER OPENINGS
1. Madagascar — $47.2 million
2. Meet the Fockers — $46.1 million
3. Night at the Museum — $30.4 million
4. Dodgeball — $30 million
5. Meet the Parents — $28.6 million
6. Starsky & Hutch — $28.1 million
7. Along Came Polly — $27.7 million
8. Zoolander — $15.5 million
9. The Heartbreak Kid — $14 million (Estimated)
10. There's Something About Mary — $13.7 million opening

This is amazing considering that Stiller's last five wide releases grossed a combined $850 million domestic. This is also Heartbreak for Dreamworks and Paramount. This is the first miss for Paramount Pictures in 2007 for a film out of the Dreamworks stable. Prior to Heartbreak Kid, Paramount had released 11 films this year with 5 major hits - all from the Spielberg, Katzenberg, Geffen offices on Melrose.

2007 RELEASES FROM PARAMOUNT PICTURES
DreamWorks projects are in bold
Freedom Writers (Jan. 5) — $36.6 million cume ($9.4 million opening)
Norbit (Feb. 9) — $95.3 million cume ($34.1 million opening)
Zodiac (March 2) — $33 million cume ($13.3 million opening)
Shooter (March 23) — $47 million cume ($14.5 million opening)
Blades of Glory (March 30) — $118.2 million cume ($33 million opening)
Disturbia (April 13) — $80.1 million cume ($22.2 million opening)
Next (April 27) — $18 million cume ($7.1 million opening)
Shrek the Third (May 18) — $321 million cume ($121.6 million opening)
Transformers (July 3) — $315.4 million cume ($70.5 million opening)
Hot Rod (Aug. 3) — $13.9 million cume ($5.3 million opening)
Stardust ((Aug. 10) — $37.8 million cume ($9.1 million opening)

Kid proves that the Dreamworks gang is human ... or at least that they've been let down by their marketing folks.

The surprise weekend winner will be holdover The Game Plan (Buena Vista), starring The Rock. The family comedy grabbed $4.4 million on Friday, and a huge "kiddie bounce" should lift it to an estimated $17.6 million weekend. In third place will be Universal's disappointing The Kingdom from director Peter Berg. The Saudi Arabia-set thriller fell to a $2.8 million Friday, and it's headed for a likely $8.7 million frame.

The other two wide releases have both tanked. Fox's The Seeker: The Dark is Rising has met with a tepid $1.2 million on Friday, and it'll find only a $4 million weekend take. Meanwhile, Jennifer Lopez's Feel the Noise (Sony) managed a tick over $1 million on its opening day, and this urban rap movie will struggle to $2.9 million or so for the weekend.

George Clooney's Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) has made a monstrous debut at 15 locations. The legal thriller, which also stars Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton, generated $12,324 per location on Friday and that should translate to just over a $44,000 PTA for the three-day. The Wes Anderson-directed The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) expanded to 19 locations, scoring an estimated $8,493 PTA to start the weekend. The quirky comedy will likely finish the weekend with just under $30,000 per.

Meanwhile Lust, Caution (Focus Features) has managed only a so-so expansion to 17 screens. The Ang Lee noir picture, already a winner at the Venice Film Festival, drummed up an acceptable $5,752 PTA on Friday, and, despite its NC-17 rating, it should get to almost $20,000 per for the three-day.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $4.5 million, $1,394 PTA [$4.5M
2. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $4.4 million, $1,417 PTA [$30.9 million cume]
3. The Kingdom (Universal) — $2.8 million, $999 PTA [$24.8 million cume]
4. NEW The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $1.2 million, $382 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
5. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $1.12 million, $394 PTA [$40.2 million cume]
6. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $1.09 million, $440 PTA [$26.6 million cume]
7. NEW Feel the Noise (Sony) — $1.05 million, $1,034 PTA [$1.05 million cume]
8. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $875,000, $342 PTA [$46.3 million cume]
9. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $625,000, $265 PTA [$32.6 million cume]
10. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $595,000, $305 PTA [$20.8 million cume]
11. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $560,000, $462 PTA [$12.9 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $550,000, $1,511 PTA [$6.6 million cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $450,000, $379 PTA [$926,125 cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $320,000, $328 PTA [$4.3 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $251,000, $1,859 PTA [$1.4 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $225,000, $535 PTA [$315.7 million cume]
* Feast of Love (MGM) — $205,000, $170 PTA [$2.4 million cume]
* NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $184,860, $12,324 PTA [$184,860 cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $161,367, $8,493 PTA [$389,984 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $100,000, $1,639 PTA [$438,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $97,784, $5,752 PTA [$203,350 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $17.6 million, $5,668 PTA [$44.1 million cume]
2. NEW The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $14 million, $4,336 PTA [$14 million cume]
3. The Kingdom (Universal) — $8.7 million, $3,105 PTA [$30.7 million cume]
4. NEW The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $4 million, $1,273 PTA [$4 million cume]
5. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $3.92 million, $1,378 PTA [$43.1 million cume]
6. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $3.4M , $1,373 PTA [$28.9 million cume]
7. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $2.97 million, $1,161 PTA [$48.4 million cume]
8. NEW Feel the Noise (Sony) — $2.9 million, $2,875 PTA [$2.9 million cume]
9. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) — $2.12 million, $901 PTA [$34.1 million cume]
10. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) — $1.93 million, $995 PTA [$22.2 million cume]
11. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) — $1.84 million, $1,525 PTA [$14.2 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.7 million, $4,684 PTA [$7.8 million cume]
* The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) — $1.57 million, $1,327 PTA [$2 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $1.13 million, $1,165 PTA [$5.1 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $853,400, $6,321 PTA [$2 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $811,477, $1,927 PTA [$316.3 million cume]
* Feast of Love (MGM) — $697,000, $579 PTA [$2.9 million cume]
* NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $665,490, $44,366 PTA [$665,490 cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $565,000, $29,737 PTA [$793,617 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $335,000, $5,492 PTA [$673,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $332,500, $19,559 PTA [$440,850 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 15 locations, $12,324 PTA
2. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 19 locations, $8,493 PTA
3. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 1 location, $5,752 PTA
4. NEW Kurt Cobain About A Son (Balcony Releasing) — 2 locations, $2,326 PTA
5. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 135 locations, $1,859 PTA
6. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 61 locations, $1,639 PTA
7. NEW Desert Bayou (Cinema Libre) — 1 location, $1,618 PTA
8. NEW The Good Night (Yari Film Group) — 2 locations, $1,572 PTA
9. Across the Universe (Sony) — 364 locations, $1,511 PTA
10. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,105 locations, $1,417 PTA
* My Kid Could Paint That (Sony Classics) — 8 locations, $956 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 15 locations, $44,366 PTA
2. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 19 locations, $29,737 PTA
3. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 1 location, $19,559 PTA
4. NEW Kurt Cobain About A Son (Balcony Releasing) — 2 locations, $14,886 PTA
5. NEW The Good Night (Yari Film Group) — 2 locations, $11,004 PTA
6. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 135 locations, $6,321 PTA
7. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — 3,105 locations, $5,668 PTA
8. NEW Desert Bayou (Cinema Libre) — 1 location, $5,501 PTA
9. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 61 locations, $5,492 PTA
10. Across the Universe (Sony) — 364 locations, $4,684 PTA
* My Kid Could Paint That (Sony Classics) — 8 locations, $3,346 PTA