The estimated combined weekend gross of the Top 12 movies is only $78.64 million. That's the fourth-softest October weekend since 2002. The dismal overall performance comes on the heels of Oct. 5-7, which was the worst October weekend since 1999. Actually, the first three weekends of October 2007 are down 20 percent from the same period a year ago. If it weren't for Hollywood outsider Tyler Perry, who lives in Atlanta, the month's movie recession would be even more dramatic.

Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) surged almost 60 percent on Saturday for a $5.36 million take (it's locked in a photo finish with 30 Days, and either film could emerge the weekend's big winner when the actuals come out on Monday). The ensemble relationship flick, with an entirely African-American cast, has scored an excellent hold, finishing the weekend with $11.69 million. And The Game Plan (Buena Vista) continues to amaze, adding another $3.86 million on Saturday. The family film starring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is headed for an $8.69 million weekend. Sometime on Monday, Game Plan will surpass $70 million.

George Clooney's Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) will finish No. 4 in its second weekend, a good solid hold. The movie picked up $2.88 million on Saturday and should hit $7.26 million for the frame. Clooney exec-produced and waived his salary for this smart legal thriller, and that bet is paying off. The success will make it very tough to keep the Oscar winner out of the Best Actor category at this year’s Academy Awards.

Finishing fifth is Ben Affleck's Gone Baby Gone (Miramax), which will have banked $6 million by Sunday night. This is dark material, based on a novel by Mystic River author Dennis Lehane, and the film is still performing admirably, setting up a possible awards-season run. In the always crowded director's race, it's hard to imagine that Ben Affleck will score an Oscar nomination, but he's a solid bet for a Best Adapted Screenplay nom. Meanwhile, younger brother Casey is getting raves for his Gone Baby Gone performance, and the commercial success will likely give him a leg up on actors like Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) and Benicio Del Toro (Things We Lost in the Fire), whose movies have been box-office misses.

The other new wide releases met with results ranging from awful to embarrassing. The sports spoof The Comebacks (20th Century Fox) got just a 9 percent Saturday bump, and it'll finish the weekend at No. 7 with about $5.6 million. Rendition (New Line) and Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount), prestige projects with serious pedigree, fared even worse.

Despite a cast that includes Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal, Meryl Streep, Alan Arkin and Peter Sarsgaard, Rendition managed only $1.66 million on Saturday, and the political thriller will settle for a $4.33 million opening weekend. Over at Dreamworks, Things We Lost in the Fire makes it back-to-back bombs (following Heartbreak Kid) as the respectfully-reviewed Benicio Del Toro-Halle Berry drama depressed its way to only $1.61 million for the weekend. That's an abysmal $1,410 per location.

Two more wide misguided wide releases are full-scale disasters. Sarah Landon & the Parnormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing), which wasn't screened for anyone in advance, scared up less than $500 per screen for the whole weekend and a total of only $530,000 or so. Rocky Mountain Pictures's animated version of The Ten Commandments, a Bible tale hoping to connect with Christian audiences, failed to top $500,000. That means it didn't work in red states or blue states. In fact, it's fair to say that the distributor was in a "state" of denial when they decided to go ahead with an 830-screen rollout.

There are two smaller films with awards-caliber performances that had very strong weekends. Ryan Gosling, an Academy Award nominee for Half Nelson last year, is brilliant in a sweet, quirky picture called Lars & the Real Girl (MGM). It's riding very good reviews to solid numbers in its limited release. Lars expanded to 21 locations this weekend, and it appears to have delivered a nearly $9,000 per theatre average. This will boost Gosling for Best Actor with MPAA members, and it is also winning acclaim for screenwriter Nancy Oliver. The former Six Feet Under writer seems to be a real threat for a Best Original Screenplay nomination.

The best PTA of the weekend has been posted by Control (MGM/Weinstein), a biopic about the life of Joy Division frontman Ian Curtis. This well-reviewed gem expanded to Los Angeles this weekend, and Control has grabbed 16,000-plus per for the weekend. Sam Riley is brilliant as Curtis, and if Bob and Harvey can capture some of the old Weinstein Oscar magic, this 27-year old British actor could be an excellent dark horse in this year's Best Actor race.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $5.43 million, $1,905 PTA [$11.6 million cume]
2. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $5.36 million, $2,638 PTA [$35.5 million cume]
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $3.86 million, $1,170 PTA [$67.3 million cume]
4. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $2.88 million, $1,114 PTA [$20 million cume]
5. NEW Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $2.34 million, $1,370 PTA [$4.2 million cume]
6. We Own the Night (Sony) — $2.31 million, $981 PTA [$18.4 million cume]
7. NEW The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) — $2.28 million, $814 PTA [$4.3 million cume]
8. NEW Rendition (New Line) — $1.66 million, $740 PTA [$3 million cume]
9. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.6 million, $577 PTA [$31 million cume]
10. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — $1.49 million, $2,650 PTA [$62.3 million cume]
11. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $1.3 million, $648 PTA [$10.3 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.13 million, $1,178 PTA [$16.1 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $877,200, $1,333 PTA [$5.9 million cume]
* NEW Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $646,400, $566 PTA [$1.1M
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $546,100, $2,703 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $250,800, $2,006 PTA [$1.9 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $243,860, $794 PTA [$318.2 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $217,600, $723 PTA [$2 million cume]
* NEW Sarah Landon & the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) — $215,250, $193 PTA [$390,250 cume]
* NEW The Ten Commandments (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $197,200, $238 PTA [$342,200 cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $78,650, $3,745 PTA [$261,650 cume]
* NEW O Jerusalem (IDP Films) — $15,971, $1,597 PTA [$19,651 cume]
* NEW Reservation Road (Focus) — $13,970, $1,075 PTA [$24,970 cume]
* Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $13,844, $659 PTA [$88,707 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $12,840, $6,420 PTA [$77,112 cume]
* NEW Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — $10,720, $3,573 PTA [$21,334 cume]
* NEW Black White + Gray (Arthouse Films) — $1,722, $1,722 PTA [$2,648 cume]
* NEW Trigger Man (Glass Eye) — $152, $152 PTA [$259 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $15.05 million, $5,275 PTA [$15.05 million cume]
2. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $11.69 million, $5,749 PTA [$38.4 million cume]
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $8.69 million, $2,633 PTA [$69.7 million cume]
4. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $7.26 million, $2,809 PTA [$22.1 million cume]
5. NEW Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $6 million, $3,504 PTA [$6 million cume]
6. We Own the Night (Sony) — $5.67 million, $2,402 PTA [$19.9 million cume]
7. NEW The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) — $5.6 million, $1,992 PTA [$5.6 million cume]
8. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — $4.52 million, $8,014 PTA [$63.5 million cume]
9. NEW Rendition (New Line) — $4.33 million, $1,925 PTA [$4.33 million cume]
10. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $3.84 million, $1,381 PTA [$32 million cume]
11. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $3.21 million, $1,604 PTA [$11.2 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $2.78 million, $2,899 PTA [$16.8 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $2.13 million, $3,246 PTA [$6.4 million cume]
* NEW Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.61 million, $1,410 PTA [$1.61M
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $1.35 million, $6,725 PTA [$3.9 million cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $591,360, $4,731 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $558,878, $1,820 PTA [$318.4 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $537,744, $1,787 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
* NEW Sarah Landon & the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) — $532,315, $477 PTA [$532,315 cume]
* NEW The Ten Commandments (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $490,100, $590 PTA [$490,100 cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $188,705, $8,986 PTA [$316,705 cume]
* NEW Reservation Road (Focus) — $35,448, $2,727 PTA [$35,448 cume]
* Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $34,046, $1,621 PTA [$99,228 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $32,742, $16,371 PTA [$86,742 cume]
* NEW O Jerusalem (IDP Films) — $31,150, $3,115 PTA [$31,150 cume]
* NEW Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — $28,838- $9,613 PTA [$28,838 cume]
* NEW Black White + Gray (Arthouse Films) — $3,854, $3,854 PTA [$3,854 cume]
* NEW Trigger Man (Glass Eye) — $365, $365 PTA [$365 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 2 locations, $6,420 PTA
2. Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 21 locations, $3,745 PTA
3. NEW Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — 3 locations, $3,538 PTA
4. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 202 locations, $2,703 PTA
5. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,034 locations, $2,638 PTA
6. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — 564 locations, $2,650 PTA
7. Lust Caution (Focus) — 125 locations, $2,006 PTA
8. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — 2,855 locations, $1,905 PTA
9. NEW Black White + Gray (Arthouse Films) — 1 location, $1,722 PTA
10. NEW O Jerusalem (IDP Films) — 10 locations, $1,597 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 2 locations, $16,371 PTA
2. NEW Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — 3 locations, $9,613 PTA
3. Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 21 locations, $8,986 PTA
4. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — 564 locations, $8,014 PTA
5. Finishing the Game (IFC Films) — 2 locations, $7,080 PTA
6. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 202 locations, $6,725 PTA
7. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,034 locations, $6,749PTA
8. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — 2,855 locations, $5,275 PTA
9. Lust Caution (Focus) — 125 locations, $4,731 PTA
10. NEW Black White + Gray (Arthouse Films) — 1 location, $3,854 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: It's a downer of a weekend for Hollywood as Sony's horror flick 30 Days of Night has opened softly, and the public has clearly rejected five other wide releases.

30 Days of Night, a vampire movie from Hard Candy director David Slade, managed to generate only $5.3 million on Friday, and it will settle for a weekend take of about $13.8 million, well below recent horror releases Halloween 2007 and Resident Evil: Extinction. Meanwhile, holdovers Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate), The Game Plan (Buena Vista) and Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) will likely finish second, third and fourth for the weekend.

The Ben Affleck-directed Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) opened on a fairly limited basis (1,713 locations), and, after a $2 million Friday, it should deliver $6.2 million for the weekend, just edging The Comebacks (Fox) on over 2,800 screens.

Rendition (New Line), starring Meryl Streep, Reese Witherspoon and Jake Gyllenhaal, is a monstrous disappointment with only $1.4 million on its opening day. That will translate to only $4.5 million for the weekend, which will put it just behind the re-release of Tim Burton's Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista).

Dreamworks/Paramount's Things We Lost in the Fire will grab less than $2 million on its opening weekend, and Sarah Landon & the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) and The Ten Commandments (Rocky Mountain Pictures) will both be lucky to top $500,000 in the frame.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $5.3 million, $1,856 PTA [$5.3 million cume]
2. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $3.2 million, $1,573 PTA [$29.9 million cume]
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $2.3 million, $697 PTA [$63.3 million cume]
4. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $2.2 million, $851 PTA [$17 million cume]
5. NEW The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) — $2.1 million, $747 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
6. NEW Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $2 million, $1,168 PTA [$2 million cume]
7. We Own the Night (Sony) — $1.8 million, $762 PTA [$16 million cume]
8. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — $1.7 million, $3,014 PTA [$60.7 million cume]
9. NEW Rendition (New Line) — $1.4 million, $622 PTA [$1.4 million cume]
10. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.2 million, $431 PTA [$29.4 million cume]
11. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $950,000, $474 PTA [$9 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $890,000, $927 PTA [$14.9 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $625,000, $950 PTA [$4.9 million cume]
* Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $525,000, $460 PTA [$525,000
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $391,000, $1,936 PTA [$2.9 million cume]
* NEW Sarah Landon & the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) — $182,000, $163 PTA [$182,000
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $155,000, $1,240 PTA [$1.6 million cume]
* NEW The Ten Commandments (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $151,000, $182 PTA [$151,000
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $142,000, $472 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $140,000, $456 PTA [$317.9 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $58,000, $2,762 PTA [$186,000 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $11,570, $5,785 PTA [$65,570 cume]
* Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — $10,614, $3,538 PTA [$10,614 cume]
* Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $9,681, $461 PTA [$74,863 cume]
* Reservation Road (Focus) — $9,503, $731 PTA [$9,503 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $13.8 million, $4,834 PTA [$13.8 million cume]
2. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $11 million, $5,408 PTA [$37.7 million cume]
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $8.2 million, $2,484 PTA [$69.2 million cume]
4. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $7.3 million, $2,824 PTA [$22.1 million cume]
5. NEW Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $6.2 million, $3,619 PTA [$6.2 million cume]
6. NEW The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) — $5.7 million, $2,027PTA [$5.7 million cume]
7. We Own the Night (Sony) — $5.6 million, $2,371 PTA [$19.8 million cume]
8. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — $4.6 million, $8,156 PTA [$63.6 million cume]
9. NEW Rendition (New Line) — $4.5 million, $2,000 PTA [$4.5 million cume]
10. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $4 million, $1,438 PTA [$32.2 million cume]
11. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $3.42 million, $1,705 PTA [$11.5 million cume]
12. Across the Universe (Sony) — $2.75 million, $2,874 PTA [$16.8 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $2.2 million, $3,434 PTA [$6.5 million cume]
* Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.7 million, $1,489 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $1.3 million, $6,446 PTA [$3.8 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $553,000, $1,801 PTA [$318.3 million cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $542,000, $4,340 PTA [$2 million cume]
* NEW Sarah Landon & the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) — $528,000, $474 PTA [$528,000
* NEW The Ten Commandments (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $513,400, $619 PTA [$513,400 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $497,000, $1,651 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $208,800, $9,943 PTA [$336,800 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $40,495, $20,248 PTA [$94,495 cume]
* Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — $37,149, $12,383 PTA [$37,149 cume]
* Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $34,852, $1,660 PTA [$100,000 cume]
* Reservation Road (Focus) — $33,261, $2,559 PTA [$33,261 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 2 locations, $5,785 PTA
2. Finishing the Game (IFC Films) — 2 locations, $4,742 PTA
3. NEW Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — 3 locations, $3,538 PTA
4. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — 564 locations, $3,014 PTA
5. Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 21 locations, $2,762 PTA
6. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 202 locations, $1,936 PTA
7. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — 2,855 locations, $1,856 PTA
8. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,034 locations, $1,573 PTA
9. Lust Caution (Focus) — 125 locations, $1,240 PTA
10. NEW Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — 1,713 locations, $1,168 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 2 locations, $20,248 PTA
2. Finishing the Game (IFC Films) — 2 locations, $15,649 PTA
3. NEW Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) — 3 locations, $12,383 PTA
4. Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 21 locations, $9,943 PTA
5. NEW Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) — 564 locations, $8,156 PTA
6. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 202 locations, $6,446 PTA
7. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,034 locations, $5,408 PTA
8. NEW 30 Days of Night (Sony) — 2,855 locations, $4,834 PTA
9. Lust Caution (Focus) — 125 locations, $4,340 PTA
10. NEW Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — 1,713 locations, $3,619 PTA