Bobby and Peter exploded onto the scene back in 1994 with the landmark rude comedy Dumb & Dumber. This gem delivered $127 million domestic with lines like, "According to the map, we've only gone four inches," and  "Check out the funbags on that hosehound," and "Wanna hear the most annoying sound in the world?" You won't get that sort of smart dialogue out of scribes like William Monahan, Akiva Goldsman or Paul Haggis. In fact, neither The Polish Brothers, The Wachowski Brothers or even The Coen Brothers can match The Farrellys, crude quip for crude quip, obscene sight gag for obscene sight gag.

They followed Dumb & Dumber with the every-bit-as-funny Kingpin (although it managed just $25 million domestic despite a remarkable performance by Bill Murray's comb-over swirl in the climactic bowling scene). Then came the infamous Cameron Diaz hair gel scene in There's Something About Mary ($176.5 million domestic). After the somewhat-less-funny, but still ticket-selling Me, Myself & Irene ($90.5 million domestic), there came a series of a lot-less-funny and fewer-ticket-selling disappointments:

Osmosis Jones (2001) — $5.2 million opening ($13.6 million cume)
Shallow Hal (2001) — $22.5 million opening ($70.8 million cume)
Stuck On You (2003) — $9.4 million opening ($33.8 million cume)
Fever Pitch (2005) — $12.4 million opening ($42 million cume)

When did the Farrelly "funny train" come off the tracks? It was the moment that they started to worry about redeeming messages. By all accounts, Bobby and Peter successfully turn away from delivering any sort of moral in The Heartbreak Kid (Paramount), a remake of Elaine May's funny 1972 relationship romp. The word is that this is a funny, outrageously raunchy movie.

It would be tough for the Farrellys to miss here with a lead whose last five movies have combined to rake in $855 million domestic. In fact, Ben Stiller's last 12 wide release movies (since Meet the Parents in 2000) have averaged a $24 million opening. He's money in the bank.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 BEN STILLER OPENINGS
1. Madagascar — $47.2 million
2. Meet the Fockers — $46.1 million
3. Night at the Museum — $30.4 million
4. Dodgeball — $30 million
5. Meet the Parents — $28.6 million
6. Starsky & Hutch — $28.1 million
7. Along Came Polly — $27.7 million
8. Zoolander — $15.5 million
9. There's Something About Mary — $13.7 million
10. Mystery Men — $10 million

So you'd expect that Bobby and Peter would be overjoyed to be back together with their big star from There's Something About Mary. Surprisingly, however, the tracking for The Heartbreak Kid looks soft when compared to the tracking for R-rated relationship/comedy blockbuster Knocked Up, and even soft by the standards of Good Luck Chuck ... although I've learned not to bet against a Paramount release generated by DreamWorks.

2007 RELEASES FROM PARAMOUNT PICTURES
DreamWorks projects are in bold
Freedom Writers (Jan. 5) — $36.6 million cume ($9.4 million opening)
Norbit (Feb. 9) — $95.3 million cume ($34.1 million opening)
Zodiac (March 2) — $33 million cume ($13.3 million opening)
Shooter (March 23) — $47 million cume ($14.5 million opening)
Blades of Glory (March 30) — $118.2 million cume ($33 million opening)
Disturbia (April 13) — $80.1 million cume ($22.2 million opening)
Next (April 27) — $18 million cume ($7.1 million opening)
Shrek the Third (May 18) — $321 million cume ($121.6 million opening)
Transformers (July 3) — $315.4 million cume ($70.5 million opening)
Hot Rod (Aug. 3) — $13.9 million cume ($5.3 million opening)
Stardust ((Aug. 10) — $37.8 million cume ($9.1 million opening)

The bottom line is that, if it weren't for Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg, 2007 would be a dismal year for Paramount and the Melrose Avenue gang.

As of Sunday (Sept. 30), The Heartbreak Kid percent had only 2 percent Un-Aided Awareness compared to 18 for Knocked Up prior to its release, and 7 percent for Good Luck Chuck on the Sunday before opening weekend. The Stiller film trails both of the comparables in Total Awareness with 70 percent (Knocked Up was at 81 percent and Chuck was at 78 percent) and Definite Interest at 31 percent (Good Luck Chuck was at 40 percent and Knocked Up went off at 37 percent).

Here's how the pre-opening First Choice numbers stack up as of Sunday:

OVERALL FIRST CHOICE
Knocked Up: 16 percent
Good Luck Chuck: 15 percent
The Heartbreak Kid: 8 percent

FIRST CHOICE: MALES UNDER 25
Knocked Up: 18 percent
Good Luck Chuck: 14 percent
The Heartbreak Kid: 5 percent

FIRST CHOICE: MALES 25 PLUS
Knocked Up: 11 percent
Good Luck Chuck: 10 percent
The Heartbreak Kid: 5%

FIRST CHOICE: FEMALES UNDER 25
Good Luck Chuck: 25 percent
Knocked Up: 22 percent
The Heartbreak Kid: 8 percent

FIRST CHOICE: FEMALES 25 PLUS
The Heartbreak Kid:  16 percent
Knocked Up: 13 percent
Good Luck Chuck: 9 percent

This would normally spell disaster, but DreamWorks/Paramount is spending its money late, and I'm told that, as of today (Thursday), The Heartbreak Kid's Total Aware is above 85 percent, and Overall First Choice is at 18 percent. Still, The Farrelly Brothers plus Ben Stiller plus DreamWorks does not necessarily add up to a "slam dunk."

My gut is telling me that this movie has been marketed in the wrong way. We just finished the summer of Knocked Up and Superbad. Raunchy, obscene, over-the-top-dirty is what is selling. That's not how Heartbreak Kid is being sold. TV ads and trailers and print ads make it look like a sweet, cute, silly, "slapsticky" date movie. This sales pitch is working with Females 25 Plus, with a First Choice number of 16 percent in that demo. Males just aren't very into the movie. If you've got the next great "raunchfest" starring Ben Stiller and directed by the Dumb & Dumber guys, then why sell the movie like Music & Lyrics or License to Wed?

Knocked Up enjoyed a $30.7 million opening weekend, so it looks impossible for Heartbreak Kid to match that. Good Luck Chuck managed $13.6 million on its opening weekend, and the quickly improving Heartbreak Kid tracking numbers, along with the serious DreamWorks/Paramount marketing muscle, should lift this one considerably higher than that figure. I'm predicting a somewhat disappointing $21 million-$24 million for The Heartbreak Kid in its opening 3 days.

Director David Cunningham, 36, whose last major project was the well-received ABC-TV movie The Path to 9/11, was at the helm for The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox), which will bow at just over 3,100 locations Friday.  It's the first film based on Susan Cooper's series of books called The Dark is Rising Sequence. The lead role is played by kid actor Alexander Ludwig, and the cast also includes Ian McShane (Deadwood) and Frances Conroy (Six Feet Under).

With its PG-rating, youthful leads and supernatural theme, the best comparable for The Seeker is this spring's The Invisible. Prior to its opening, The Invisible had 10 percent Un-Aided Awareness, 65 percent Total Aware, 25 percent Definite Interest and a 3 percent First Choice. That's markedly better than The Seeker, which has 1 percent Un-Aided Awareness, 36 percent Total Aware, 25 percent Definite Interest and 3 percent First Choice. There's just no traction in the marketplace for this one. The Invisible opened with $7.7 million, and that is probably the high end of the correct range for The Seeker: The Dark is Rising. I'm calling for $5 million-$8 million.

The third wide release this weekend is Sony's Feel the Noise, produced by Jennifer Lopez. This urban drama, about a young rapper in the Bronx trying to make a name for himself, stars Omarion Grandberry, a former member of the band B2K, which was featured in 2005's You Got Served. This is a niche movie, but the movie will definitely play, at certain theatres in certain neighborhoods. Sony scored big early this year with the urban-themed Stomp the Yard ($21.8 million opening, $61.3 million cume), but that won't be duplicated here ... especially not with just over 1,000 screens. Stomp had buzz with 13 percent Un-Aided Awareness, and moviegoers knew it was coming with a 65 percent Total Aware. Feel the Noise has just 2 percent Un-Aided and 28 percent Total Awareness. With a 4 percent First Choice, Feel the Noise is likely headed for just $3 million-$5 million.

Here are my Final Predictions for the weekend of Oct. 5-7:
1. The Heartbreak Kid — $22.75 million
2. The Game Plan — $12.6 million
3. The Kingdom — $9 million
4. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising — $7.5 million
5. Feel the Noise — $4.8 million
6. Resident Evil: Extinction — $4 million
7. Good Luck Chuck — $3.1 million
8. 3:10 to Yuma — $2.8 million
9. The Jane Austen Book Club — $2.1 million
10. The Brave One — $1.9 million