Because of that, and to (hopefully) prevent such an unfortunate fate from befalling anyone else, I'm taking a look at the remainder of the high-priced movies ($26 or higher) in October–December leagues. Think of it like a game of famed computer desktop time-waster Minesweeper, only instead of you having to figure out where the mines are on your own, I'm here to do it for you. You definitely don't want your high-priced Moguls studio anchor to explode right in your face.

Let's bee-gin with Bee Movie (Nov. 2; $33 Ultimate, $40 Box Office). If you're going to spend that much money on one film, this is probably your safest bet. It's from DreamWorks, whose animation studio has produced at least one big hit every year since 2004:

• Shrek 2 (2004) — $436 million
• Shark Tale (2004) — $160 million
• Madagascar (2005) — $193 million
• Over the Hedge (2006) — $155 million
• Shrek the Third (2007) — $320 million

They've also had moderate successes in Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit ($56 million) and Flushed Away ($64 million). Even discarding the Shrek films as a franchise, that's still at least one $150 million movie every year for the past three years, a pretty solid streak. I suspect 2007 will be much like 2004, with a Shrek movie pulling down the usual monster amounts of cash, and Bee Movie grabbing a nice little pile of its own to boot. Last winter, too, Happy Feet pulled down loads of bucks in November — against James Bond, no less! Thus, Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, and company should be no problem for Bee Movie. Also keep in mind that there won't have been any substantial family fare since The Game Plan, which itself came along after a similarly long drought. Many are surprised by how well The Rock's movie has done ... don't you bee surprised when Bee Movie rakes it in this winter. Bottom line: It'll bee HUGE!

Also on the docket that same weekend is American Gangster (Nov. 2; $28 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues). The tandem of Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe is a potent combination at the box office for sure ... and may prove equally potent at the awards podium. This is another one to anchor your slate around. It may not make as much money as the likes of Bee Movie, but then again, it is slightly cheaper and could allow you to fit more quality choices in your other 7 slots (rather than relying on cheap picks like Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem). User ratings will also be a bit higher for this title than for Jerry Seinfeld's holiday bee-st (OK, I'm stopping now), and in a November filled with family and children's offerings (Bee Movie, Fred Claus, Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium, Enchanted, August Rush), American Gangster looks like the top dog when it comes to films aimed at adults. Projections are for $85 million, but I think it'll go higher, and it'll certainly have good legs. Comparisons have been made between this and The Departed, and if American Gangster manages equal statistics (The Departed would've provided $132 million, 1 PTA point, an 8.6 IMDb rating, and a WHOPPING 18 Top 5 points), it will have been well worth it. Heck, I'll even take $100 million and 10 Top 5 points. Bottom line: Don't you dare fuggedaboudit, this one's got the goods.

The Kingdom arguably performed below expectations; you might chalk it up to audience fatigue regarding the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. (In more general terms, we'll just say the war on terror.) That's bad news for Lions for Lambs (Nov. 9; $31 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues), Robert Redford's first directorial effort since The Legend of Bagger Vance in 2000. (More on that Legend later on ... ) Perhaps a bit ironically, Lions for Lambs was written by Matthew Carnahan, the same guy who wrote The Kingdom, and also among the cast is Peter Berg ... yep, the guy who directed The Kingdom. Whether or not you think headliner Tom Cruise is crazy (or that he locks himself in closets with John Travolta and R. Kelly), he usually plays his roles very well. And there's really no arguing about the quality work of Meryl Streep and Redford (who is acting in the film in addition to occupying the director's chair) over the years. BUT ...

I just don't think this one will connect well with American audiences. Regardless of whether the film is a good one, I'm guessing that people will stay away in droves, because it hits too close to home, or maybe because it's just like the news (and they go to the cinema to get away from all of that for a few hours). (Don't get me wrong — I'm not suggesting that everyone in America worries endlessly about all our international conflicts. I do think, though, that many will see this and say, "Great, ANOTHER war movie ... " Just as we've had sequel fatigue and genre fatigue with "torture porn," this year may see some fatigue with contemporary war-themed movies.) (Things like Atonement perhaps being a tiny bit excepted, because of taking place during WWII.) Lions for Lambs will certainly feel the effects. Bottom line: Commendable performance, but not for Fantasy Moguls, and certainly not for $31! Pick American Gangster instead.

I still think Beowulf (Nov. 16; $44 Ultimate, $50 Box Office) is going to be a tough sell. Motion capture is visually striking and all, but The Polar Express made as much as it did largely due to the work from which it was adapted and because of its timely seasonal release (staring on Nov. 10 back in 2004) — not because of the motion capture technology. Monster House, too, struggled a bit at the box office, though it did come away with $73 million when all was said and done. Playing in 3D will help Beowulf's receipts, since at many theater locations, films showing in 3D merit a higher ticket price. (For example, at my local theater, I'm told it's $2 extra for the 3D re-release of Nightmare Before Christmas this weekend.)

All that said,  I really have trouble believing that Beowulf will be the biggest film of the holiday season. Just the week after it opens comes another movie targeting a similar demographic, Hitman. Unless Beowulf is absolutely HUGE, it won't spend two weeks at No. 1 on the charts; either Enchanted or Hitman will see to that. Most everyone has read Beowulf at some time or another, even if it was way back in junior-high-school English class, but does that mean everyone wants to see a film adaptation? I think not. The PG-13 rating opens up it up to a broader audience than if it was R, certainly, but how do you market this? Action movie? Historical epic? Calling it seasonal is pretty much out, right? I mean, there's snow in some shots, but ... it's a toughie. Even beyond any thoughts about the film itself, just looking at it from a Fantasy Moguls economic/strategic point of view, it's rarely ever a good idea to spend nearly half your available funds on just one movie. It's very difficult to win if you only have half your total money to spend on seven of your eight movies. Bottom line: Beowulf might slay its opening weekend, but performance thereafter will be no better than middling. It's EXTREMELY overpriced.

If you were contemplating picking up Atonement (Dec. 7; $26 in Ultimate leagues), just think of John C. McGinley's character from Scrubs, Dr. Cox, screaming in your ear, "Nay, nay, oh dear God, one THOUSAND times nay!" The film is almost certain to get Oscar consideration, but there's no extra points for that in Fantasy Moguls leagues, and while it'll more than likely garner some PTA, why spend a whopping $27 on it when you can have something like Youth Without Youth (the return to filmmaking of a certain Francis Ford Coppola) for just $12? Or festival favorite Grace is Gone, with an at least moderately bankable star in John Cusack, for $8? Spending more than $25 for guaranteed PTA points just limits the rest of your slate. (And past seasons have shown that PTA points are anything but guaranteed — those who recall the coming and going of The 11th Hour can attest to that.) In order to build buzz, I suspect Focus Features will expand Atonement across the country slowly, so it's also not much of a threat for box office revenue until late December at the earliest. (And it may not even make a dent until January, too late for the current season.) Even combining a few million in revenue with the PTA it gets, it's definitely not worth $27. It might be a great movie, but it won't be a great Fantasy Moguls pick. Bottom line: The rest of your slate can't atone for this HUGE dud.

The Golden Compass (Dec. 7; $32 Ultimate, $34 Box Office), on the other hand, will not be a dud of any size. Four weekends is certainly enough time to retain most of the film's box-office production for your studio, and you even have the benefit of the Christmas holiday week. December is a crowded and competitive month, but family-friendly fantasy films have done well each of the past two years (Night at the Museum and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe). (And Eragon? OK, so no rule applies in every situation.) I think that this year's Compass vs. I Am Legend battle will be much like the 2005 clash between Narnia and King Kong, with each movie taking a turn at No. 1, and both staying near the top throughout the month. Some parent groups are upset about The Golden Compass's purportedly atheist overtones — the author of the book (and its sequels) on which the film is based has made no secret of his scorn of organized religion — but the pro-religion overtones didn't seem to hurt Narnia, so I'm not worried. Here's hoping the fantasy world in this one won't be as convoluted as in Stardust. (If the trailers are any indication, it won't be. And besides, it'll be much cooler. There are talking polar bears. Seriously, Coca-Cola has GOT to get some sort of cross-promotion going.) Bottom line: Should be golden indeed.

A little bit of trivia: I Am Legend (Dec. 14; $37 Ultimate, $36 Box Office) is Will Smith's second movie with "legend" in the title (after The Legend of Bagger Vance ... two references in one column, who would've thought?). It also follows in the footsteps of such legendary titles as Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, The Legend of Zorro, Pathfinder: The Legend of the Ghost Warrior, and Jet Li's Fearless (which was originally called Legend of a Fighter in Hong Kong. C'mon, it counts). Admittedly, the word by itself has absolutely no bearing on whether or not the film will succeed, but Will Smith does, and this is almost certain to be another addition to his track record of box-office smashes. The price is high, yes, but I think that in three weeks this one can equal or surpass the $104 million that The Pursuit of Happyness put on the table by the end of 2006. It's not a terribly great pick for box-office revenue, because the cutoff at the end of the month is a bit of a danger here ... and you may want more than $100 million from your anchor pick. It IS, however, a great strategic choice, a sort of counterbalance against the people in your leagues who run with The Golden Compass. Both films will be big, and I think much of December will be back-and-forth between the two. The advantage with The Golden Compass is that one extra week. But who knows, maybe I Am Legend will be bigger than anyone expected ... then you'll be the one feeling as lonely as Robert Neville, all alone atop the leaderboard. Bottom line: It's a somewhat risky pick, but could pay big dividends. It isn't a can't-miss thing, but you can't afford NOT to consider it.

Another high-priced PTA pick is The Kite Runner (Dec. 14; $27 in Ultimate leagues). You shouldn't even consider putting this on your slate. At all. Ever. Not even for one second. I know that a film usually gets no PTA points beyond the second weekend, but even so, you'd paying $27 for just TWO weekends, and as I discussed before, PTA is far from a sure bet. To be fair, The Kite Runner has three weekends, but there are some high profile limited releases around Christmas with which to compete: There Will Be Blood, The Bucket List, Cassandra's Dream and Persepolis come to mind, not to mention the big films like National Treasure: Book of Secrets, or Sweeney Todd (depending on how wide it goes). The answer to any question involving putting this film on your slate for an October–December league is no. One hundred percent. It's just not smart to put that much money into what's essentially a gamble for PTA (and, in fairness, a respectable-to-sparkling IMDb score; director Marc Forster does have a track record in that regard) minimal box office contributions. Bottom line: GARGANTUAN dud.

If you're hoping to stumble upon some riches at the end of the season, then National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Dec. 21; $26 in Box Office leagues) is not your answer. I have no doubt that the film will be big, but paying $26 for just two weekends of earning is outrageous. Three weeks is okay, four weeks is totally fine (just look at what Transformers did in one month), but two weeks means you definitely run into the cutoff. Night at the Museum had two weekends before the end of 2006, and it made $115 million — before going on to make $250 million, so less than half of it came in those two weeks. That's a great two-week start, sure, but National Treasure won't reach those heights, and if I'm going to spend upwards of $25, I want more than $115 million. Fantasy Moguls predicts $130 million, but remember, those don't take the cutoff into account. That might be an accurate full-run number, but I say $75 million tops by the end of the year. Not worth it. Bottom line: No way, Jose.

And that's it for this week. Watch your step, and I'll be back next week with a piece on reading reviews — is it helpful to your plotting and scheming? Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative has never met Jose, but in addition to staying the heck away from Book of Secrets, at least until November-January Moguls leagues are here, that dude and everyone else are welcome to pick his enormous brain by writing to misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.