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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

October 13, 2007

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: Tyler Perry's 'Married' Is 3-Day Champ; 'Game Plan' w/$11.6M; 'Michael Clayton' w/$11.1M; 'We Own the Night' w/$10.7M; Nothing Golden about 'Elizabeth'; Rock Bio 'Control' and Gosling's 'Lars' 1-2 in PTA

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) got a solid 21percent uptick from its excellent opening day, and, although the movie won't reach $25 million for the weekend, its expected $23.07 million haul will be more than enough to win the 3-day. It also marks the second-best opening of Perry's filmmaking career, trailing only 2006's Madea's Family Reunion ($30 million opening).

Amazingly, Tyler Perry's poorly-reviewed relationship comedy will more than double the estimated three-day performances of George Clooney's Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) and We Own the Night (Sony), with Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix. Married will more than triple the business of Universal's Elizabeth: The Golden Age starring Oscar winner Cate Blanchett.

As I first reported Friday night (see below), Disney holdover The Game Plan will finish No. 2 for the weekend. After delivering another $5.13 million on Saturday, the family comedy starring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will finish the weekend with about $11.59 million, putting it just shy of $60 million domestic. After outperforming Michael Clayton on Friday, the younger-skewing We Own the Night got just a 14 percent Saturday bump. I'm projecting that  Michael Clayton will finish third for the weekend with an estimated $11.13 million, followed by the gritty James Gray-directed crime thriller with a likely $10.7 million.

Universal cannot be happy with its Elizabeth: The Golden Age, which, despite solid reviews, managed only an 18 percent Friday-to-Saturday increase for $2.41 million. This period biopic will require steady Oscar buzz in order to survive its estimated opening weekend of $6.37 million. The other wide release, with just over 1,000 screens, is The Final Season from Yari Film Group. This bseball movie starring Sean Astin has struck out, with a three-day take of just $595,000.

Control, the MGM/Weinstein biopic about the tragic life of the lead singer of the band Joy Division, opened on one screen in at The Film Forum in Lower Manhattan, and it rode terrific reviews to a weekend PTA win. With a critically-hailed lead performance from Sam Riley, Control will deliver a likely $26,744 Friday-thru-Sunday. Logging a good-but-not-great opening was Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) with a $12,946 PTA from its seven locations. This quirky little film has real Oscar potential for both Ryan Gosling and screenwriter Nancy Oliver. Meanwhile, Kenneth Branagh's Sleuth (Sony Classics), starring Michael Caine and Jude Law, appears to have limited prospects for expansion after a meager $4,882 three-day PTA at nine locations.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $9.31 million, $4,633 PTA [$17 million cume]
2. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $5.13 million, $1,641 PTA [$56 million cume]
3. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $4.58 million, $1,825 PTA [$8.9 million cume]
4. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — $4.27 million, $1,810 PTA [$8 million cume]
5. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $3.04 million, $943 PTA [$23.8 million cume]
6. NEW Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $2.41 million, $1,206 PTA [$4.5 million cume]
7. The Kingdom (Universal) — $1.99 million, $703 PTA [$38.7 million cume]
8. Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.51 million, $1,592 PTA [$11.6 million cume]
9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $1.11 million, $497 PTA [$47.2 million cume]
10. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $954,000, $301 PTA [$6.4M
11. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $871,000, $446 PTA [$32.2 million cume]
12. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $668,000, $367 PTA [$51.1 million cume]
* Feel the Noise (Sony) — $594,000, $582 PTA [$4.7 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $446,000, $4,695 PTA [$1.8 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $403,000, $2,643 PTA [$3.6 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $346,000, $961 PTA [$317.3 million cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $273,000, $3,545 PTA [$1.1 million cume]
* NEW The Final Season (Yari Film Group) — $268,000, $265 PTA [$458,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $180,000, $1,104 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $170,000, $234 PTA [$6.1 million cume]
* NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $37,000, $5,286 PTA [$62,500 cume]
* NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $18,200, $2,022 PTA [$31,200 cume]
* NEW Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $10,746, $10,746 PTA [$18,918 cume]
* NEW Canvas (Screen Media Films) — $5,781, $2,891 PTA [$11,085 cume]
* Kurt Cobain About a Son (Balcony Releasing) — $2,744, $686 PTA [$27,060 cume]
* NEW King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — $2,345, $2,345 PTA [$5,431 cume]
* NEW Terror's Advocate (Magnolia) — $2,196, $732 PTA [$3,096 cume]
* NEW Naked Boys Singing (TLA Releasing) — $1,455, $1,455 PTA [$2,604 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $23.07 million, $11,473 PTA [$25.3 million cume]
2. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $11.59 million, $3,706 PTA [$59.5 million cume]
3. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $11.13 million, $4,433 PTA [$12.2 million cume]
4. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — $10.7 million, $4,556 PTA [$10.7 million cume]
5. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $7.15 million, $2,212 PTA [$25.7 million cume]
6. NEW Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $6.37 million, $3,186 PTA [$6.37 million cume]
7. The Kingdom (Universal) — $4.82 million, $1,701 PTA [$40.2 million cume]
8. Across the Universe (Sony) — $3.68 million, $3,863 PTA [$12.5 million cume]
9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $2.63 million, $1,171 PTA [$48 million cume]
10. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $2.2 million, $696 PTA [$7.1M
11. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $2.1 million, $1,081 PTA [$32.8 million cume]
12. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $1.52 million, $835 PTA [$51.5 million cume]
* Feel the Noise (Sony) — $1.3 million, $1,280 PTA [$5 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $1.08 million, $11,402 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $968,250, $6,328 PTA [$4 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $757,000, $2,103 PTA [$317.6 million cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $639,000, $8,300 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* NEW The Final Season (Yari Film Group) — $595,000, $588 PTA [$595,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $436,400, $2,677 PTA [$1.4 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $378,175, $522 PTA [$6.2 million cume]
* NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $90,620, $12,946 PTA [$90,620 cume]
* NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $43,940, $4,882 PTA [$43,940 cume]
* NEW Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $26,744, $26,744 PTA [$26,744 cume]
* NEW Canvas (Screen Media Films) — $14,959, $7,479 PTA [$14,959 cume]
* Kurt Cobain About a Son (Balcony Releasing) — $6,862, $1,716 PTA [$28,706 cume]
* NEW King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — $7,120, $7,120 PTA [$7,120 cume]
* NEW Terror's Advocate (Magnolia) — $4,633, $1,544 PTA [$4,633 cume]
* NEW Naked Boys Singing (TLA Releasing) — $3,579, $3,579 PTA [$3,579 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 1 location, $10,746 PTA
2. NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 7 locations, $5,286 PTA
3. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 95 locations, $4,695 PTA
4. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,011 locations, $4,633 PTA
5. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 77 locations, $3,545 PTA
6. NEW Canvas (Screen Media Films) — 2 locations, $2,891 PTA
7. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 153 locations, $2,634 PTA
8. King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — 1 location, $2,345 PTA
9. NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — 9 locations, $2,022 PTA
10. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 2,511 locations, $1,825 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 1 location, $26,774 PTA
2. NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 7 locations, $12,946 PTA
3. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,011 locations, $11,473 PTA
4. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 95 locations, $11,402 PTA
5. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 77 locations, $8,300 PTA
6. NEW Canvas (Screen Media Films) — 2 locations, $7,479 PTA
7. King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — 1 location, $7,120 PTA
8. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 153 locations, $6,328 PTA
9. NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — 9 locations, $4,882 PTA
10. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — 2,362 locations, $4,556 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: Tyler Perry has returned to the top of the box office and, on a very competitive weekend, he did it in very easy fashion. Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) has rocked Hollywood with an $8.65 million Friday, and it's headed for an outstanding $25.3 million three-day opening.

The 38-year-old actor/writer/director established himself as an auteur and a box-office sensation back in 2005 with Diary of a Mad Black Woman, which opened with a $21.9 million weekend and went on to generate $50.6 million domestic. Then came the even more successful Madea's Family Reunion, with a $30 million opening and a $63.2 million cume. Earlier this year, Perry tested his clout with Daddy's Little Girls, a movie that he wrote and directed but didn't appear in, and didn't adapt from one of his popular stage plays. Little Girls opened on the Wednesday prior to President's Day, and the result was a dramatically softer six-day opening of $18.7 million (the four-day was $13 million and the three-day was $11.2 million).

Now, the New Orleans-born African-American entertainer is back on sure footing. His huge following has overcome mixed-to-negative reviews, and Why Did I Get Married? will likely become the second-best opening of his filmmaking career, trailing only Madea's Family Reunion. In the process, Perry has beaten back some Hollywood heavyweights like George Clooney, Mark Wahlberg, Joaquin Phoenix and Elizabeth Blanchett.

The Game Plan (Buena Vista), in its third weekend, will finish an impressive No. 2. The family comedy added $3.2 million on Friday (No. 4 for the day), but Saturday and Sunday matinees will power Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to a three-day haul of $12.3 million or so. The modestly budgeted Game Plan will sack the $60 million mark by Monday morning.

It will be very close for third place for the weekend, but I anticipate that Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.), produced by and starring Oscar-winner Clooney, will finish in the show position. James Gray's We Own the Night (Sony), starring Wahlberg and Phoenix, grabbed $3.75 million on Friday compared to Michael Clayton's $3.7 million, but the older-skewing legal thriller from first-time director Tony Gilroy should win the three-day by a whisker, $11.4 million to $11.2 million.

The long-awaited Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal), from director Shekhar Kapur and starring Oscar winner Cate Blanchett, managed only $2.2 million on Friday, and the historical biopic will settle for an estimated $7 million and a sixth-place weekend finish. The news is much worse for Yari Film Group's baseball movie starring Sean Astin, The Final Season, which lurched to a meager $200,000 Friday on over 1,000 screens and will be lucky to top $500,000 for the weekend.

Ryan Gosling's ingenious performance in Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) is playing to packed houses on both coasts. Former Six Feet Under writer Nancy Oliver has crafted a wildly creative, yet still heartfelt film about a man in love with a life-size doll, and it delivered approximately $3,680 per location on Friday. This quirky art film will win the weekend PTA crown with an estimated $13,286 at its seven locations. This is a huge boost for Gosling, who, in my humble opinion, will be a certain Oscar nominee for Best Actor, and for Oliver, who is nearly a sure thing for a Best Original Screenplay nod.

Things are less encouraging for Kenneth Branagh's remake of Sleuth (Sony Classics), starring Michael Caine and Jude Law. It opened at nine locations on Friday, and it only registered a $1,241 PTA. This film should pick up enough over the weekend for a $4,556 three-day PTA, but the prospects for expansion seem fairly dim.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $8.65 million, $4,301 PTA [$8.65 million cume]
2. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — $3.75 million, $1,588 PTA [$3.75 million cume]
3. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $3.7 million, $1,474 PTA [$4.7 million cume]
4. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $3.2 million, $1,023 PTA [$51.1 million cume]
5. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.3 million, $711 PTA [$20.8 million cume]
6. NEW Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $2.2 million, $1,099 PTA [$2.2 million cume]
7. The Kingdom (Universal) — $1.29 million, $458 PTA [$36.6 million cume]
8. Across the Universe (Sony) — $1.12 million, $1,175 PTA [$10 million cume]
9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $710,000, $316 PTA [$46.1 million cume]
10. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $586,000, $301 PTA [$31.3 million cume]
11. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $578,000, $183 PTA [$5.5M
12. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $432,000, $237 PTA [$50.4 million cume]
* Feel the Noise (Sony) — $417,000, $409 PTA [$4.1 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $282,000, $2,972 PTA [$1.35 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $240,000, $1,569 PTA [$3.2 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $210,000, $584 PTA [$317 million cume]
* NEW The Final Season (Yari Film Group) — $200,000, $198 PTA [$200,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $135,500, $1,760 PTA [$785,000 cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $101,420, $622 PTA [$1 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $101,000, $139 PTA [$6 million cume]
* NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $25,760, $3,680 PTA [$25,760 cume]
* NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $11,169, $1,241 PTA [$11,169 cume]
* NEW King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — $3,086, $3,086 PTA [$3,086 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $25.3 million, $12,581 PTA [$25.3 million cume]
2. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) — $12.3 million, $3,932 PTA [$60.2 million cume]
3. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $11.4 million, $4,540 PTA [$12.4 million cume]
4. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — $11.2 million, $4,742 PTA [$11.2 million cume]
5. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $7.3 million, $2,258 PTA [$25.8 million cume]
6. NEW Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) — $7 million, $3,498 PTA [$7 million cume]
7. The Kingdom (Universal) — $4.36 million, $1,539 PTA [$39.7 million cume]
8. Across the Universe (Sony) — $3.47 million, $3,642 PTA [$12.3 million cume]
9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) — $2.59 million, $1,152 PTA [$48 million cume]
10. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (20th Century Fox) — $1.99 million, $630 PTA [$6.9M
11. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) — $1.93 million, $993 PTA [$32.6 million cume]
12. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) — $1.5 million, $829 PTA [$51.5 million cume]
* Feel the Noise (Sony) — $1.37 million, $1,349 PTA [$5.1 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $940,000, $9,896 PTA [$2 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $864,000, $5,647 PTA [$3.8 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $841,000, $2,336 PTA [$317.6 million cume]
* NEW The Final Season (Yari Film Group) — $540,000, $534 PTA [$540,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — $475,000, $6,169 PTA [$1.1 million cume]
* In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) — $359,000, $495 PTA [$6.2 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $355,000, $2,178 PTA [$1.3 million cume]
* NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $93,000, $13,286 PTA [$93,000 cume]
* NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — $41,000, $4,556 PTA [$41,000 cume]
* NEW King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — $10,801, $10,801 PTA [$10,801 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,011 locations, $4,301 PTA
2. NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 7 locations, $3,680 PTA
3. King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — 1 location, $3,086 PTA
4. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 95 locations, $2,972 PTA
5. NEW Canvas (Screen Media Films) — 2 locations, $2,652 PTA
6. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 77 locations, $1,760 PTA
7. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — 2,362 locations, $1,588 PTA
8. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 153 locations, $1,569 PTA
9. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 2,511 locations, $1,474 PTA
10. NEW Kurt Cobain About A Son (Balcony Releasing) — 2 locations, $1,383 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — 7 locations, $13,286 PTA
2. NEW Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — 2,011 locations, $12,581 PTA
3. King Corn (Balcony Releasing) — 1 location, $10,801 PTA
4. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — 95 locations, $9,896 PTA
5. NEW Canvas (Screen Media Films) — 2 locations, $9,282 PTA
6. Lust, Caution (Focus Features) — 77 locations, $6,169 PTA
7. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — 153 locations, $5,647 PTA
8. NEW We Own the Night (Sony) — 2,362 locations, $4,742 PTA
9. NEW Sleuth (Sony Classics) — 9 locations, $4,556 PTA
10. NEW Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — 2,511 locations, $4,540 PTA

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Comments

According to Box Office Mojo, "Control" made $4.300 wednesday and $3.800 thursday in the one theater that is playing the film in NYC. So I think we can expect it to battle for the 1st place in PTA with Lars this week-end...

Posted by: Indie Jones | October 13, 2007 at 02:14 AM

2 possible PTA contenders, CONTROL and NAKED BOYS SINGING, have not reported their Friday grosses. Very possible that one or both could register in the weekend top 10 (but I think Wednesday and Thursday may take some "steam" out of CONTROL's weekend).

Mase

Posted by: Steve Mason | October 13, 2007 at 02:52 AM

Hey Steve, I hate to be "that guy". But small typo, diary of a Mad Black Woman was 2005 not 1995.

Posted by: Rob | October 13, 2007 at 06:22 AM

Small factual error, too: The Final Season is the earnest Sean Astin football film, not that dreadul-looking parody of sports films, The Comebacks, which opens next week.

Posted by: Webster | October 13, 2007 at 09:02 AM

um, earnest Sean Astin baseball film, that is ... :)

Posted by: Webster | October 13, 2007 at 09:02 AM

Great to hear from ya, Mase. I tried, vainly, to fill your shoes somewhat in the Forums, but, you know, your feet are just too darned BIG. [Grin] I remain, as always... Nico.

Posted by: Nicodemus the Sage | October 13, 2007 at 10:19 AM

I LIKE IT

Posted by: BRITTANY | October 13, 2007 at 12:17 PM

Alright thank god Control didnt report its number because for a second i thought it didnt finish in the top 10 phew.

Posted by: Optimus | October 13, 2007 at 04:47 PM

Also, another correction. The Golden Age was universally panned no good reviews for this one. It's RT score is in the low 20s!

Posted by: Andrew | October 14, 2007 at 09:39 AM

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