Bee Movie —  So, riddle me this: What do you get when you hire a couple of the writers behind what was, arguably, the greatest sitcom of all time (as well as Saturday Night Live, which hasn't even been the best American sketch comedy show in a generation), and reunite them with the creator and star of said program? ... Then, toss in the maverick, pixel-packing cowboys behind such wildly popular films as Madagascar, Shark Tale and the record-shattering Shrek franchise? ... And, finally, top it all off with an all-star cast (including Academy Award-winners Renée Zellweger and Kathy Bates, as well as veteran animation vocal talents Matthew Broderick, John Goodman, Chris Rock, and Patrick Warburton)? Here's a hint: It ain't Flushed Away.

Bee Movie — just now hitting the crest of a worldwide marketing tsunami that, itself, began rippling through trade publications, theatrical preview reels and the Internet LAST November — may be not only the most highly anticipated title of the Holiday Season, but could very easily wind up among the Top Ten Highest-Grossing Films of the Year. (In truth, however, Bee Movie has little hope of unseating Shrek the Third to become the animation king — er, queen, that is — of 2007.) Though early reviews have been somewhat less than lofty — dismissing Movie's insectoid subjects as laugh-averse digital automatons who labor far, far too hard in the furious pursuit of altogether too few truly amusing moments — it likely won't matter. Certainly not to the nation's hordes of giddy, glass-eyed, desperately underentertained children, who last had a semi-decent film tossed in their general demographic direction in July with The Simpsons Movie.

Since then, it's been a long, disappointing seasonal twilight of increasingly unprofitable kid fare: BRATZ, Underdog, Daddy Day Camp, Mr. Bean's Holiday, Sydney White, The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising. Even unanticipated fall success story The Game Plan, which doggedly continues to hang, like an overripe fruit, from the lower branches of the Box-Office tree a full six weeks into its release, has failed in its bid to — against all logic or faith in the innate benign reasonability of the universe — attain true blockbuster status. The Rock will likely run the clock out with something between $90 and $95 million in total domestic grosses. Consider also our children's equally entertainment-famished parents, who have uniformly rejected even Hollywood's most heavily publicized offerings throughout an unremittingly dismal fall. Witness the astonishing, high-profile failures of Stardust, The Invasion, The Nanny Diaries, The Heartbreak Kid, Elizabeth: The Golden Age and Rendition. Mom and Dad have gone the better part of a decade now without seeing America's favorite comedian in anything more memorable than an American Express commercial, or a tired, uninspired HBO special. I mean, at least Ray Romano's fans have had the very successful Ice Age films.)

You know it's been a bad, bad season for movies when a solid-but-unspectacular debut like the one Saw IV just had manages to, in the course of just three days, not merely out-earn the first-weekend grosses of, but outpace the total revenues of, fully four-fifths of ALL of first-issue titles to obtain a wide release (on 600-plus screens) since beginning of fall. Not all of this can be blamed on third-quarter scheduling; some of these films have had nearly six weeks to entice paying customers. They simply have failed to do so, at least in any numbers worth mentioning. In fact, it's fair to say that more out-and-out bombs have been dropped on this nation's movie houses over the past three months than on all the U.S. military's practice range combined during the same period.

Which is why Bee Movie, even if it turns out to be just another entry in a long, increasingly mundane line of talking-beasties features (Pixar, by the way, understands better than anyone that this particular cinematic trend is nearly played out, which is why the studio that has best defined this sub-genre is now eschewing such predictable fare in favor of ambitious, high-concept efforts like Wall-E, Up and John Carter of Mars), will be a smashing success, all but guaranteed to earn a minimum $36 million in its opening weekend, snatching the top spot at the Nov. 2-4 box office away from another heavy hitter, American Gangster, in its debut (but, we'll get there).

It's helpful to remember that no early-season computer-animated release, with the exception of the motion-capture Polar Express and last year's disappointing and poorly-marketed Flushed Away (in the spirit of the holiday season, not to mention full disclosure, also a DreamWorks Animation production), has EVER failed to come away from its first three days in wide release with $40 million in ticket sales, nor to claim the coveted title of "No. 1 Film in America." Neither is Bee Movie likely to pull in less than $10,000 per-theater in its debut, which should be good for at least third place in PTA that weekend. Long-term prospects are iffier: Bee Movie will face some serious competition for the top spot in its second weekend from Fred Claus, and if word-of-mouth is lukewarm (and I suspect that will be the case), demographically compatible challengers Beowulf (you know, sorta ... demographically compatible, that is) Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium and Enchanted will knock this title entirely out of Top-5 contention by no later than Week 4.

BfYB's Projections for Bee Movie
Opening Weekend: $42.5 million B.O. / 3 PTA points / 5 Top 5 points
Overall: $165 million Total B.O. / 6 PTA points / 13 Top 5 points / 6.7 IMDb

American Gangster — Like the aforementioned Bee Movie, tracking on this film, which pairs Best Actor Oscar-winners Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe (along with acclaimed director Ridley Scott, now well into his second career as one of Hollywood's most reliably outstanding helmers) in a period crime drama by turns reminiscent of Brian De Palma's Scarface, Sidney Lumet's Prince of the City and Michael Mann's Heat — all, it should be noted, classics of the genre — has been absolutely through the roof. Filmgoers and critics alike who are hungry for "the next" The Departed are not likely to be disappointed. The film, said to feature a tight, gritty screenplay by Academy Award winner Steven Zaillian (Gangs of New York and Schindler's List, among many, many others) and based on the true-life story of drug lord Frank Lucas, has been generating consistent Oscars buzz for months, so it's no surprise that Gangster is on the short list of titles expected to flirt with $100 million in overall box-office receipts this Holiday Season.

But how high can it really go? Projections for American Gangster's opening weekend have ranged as high as $40 million, but even the best crime dramas — the best non-action dramatic films, period — have only very rarely managed to exceed $35 million in their first three days. As a matter of fact, it's only happened thrice: Ocean's Eleven, Twelve and Thirteen. (Joining Interview with the Vampire, Signs, 8 Mile, The Passion of the Christ and perhaps half a dozen other films with openings above $35 million, that weren't strictly action, superhero, animated or Harry Potter titles.)

Also, astonishingly enough, between these three cinematic giants — Crowe, Scott, and Washington — there have only been two openings north of $30 million: 2001's Hannibal, and 2000 Best Picture winner Gladiator, which was Ridley and Russell's first collaborative effort. (Denzel's all-time biggest debut was just under $29 million, for last year's terrific Inside Man.) Even The Departed, a Best-Picture blockbuster which wasn't exactly hurting for bankable, marquee above-the-title talent, managed only $26.8 million in its first weekend against two extremely mediocre rival openers, Employee of the Month and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning.

Sure, Gangster will be opening comparatively later in the year, at a time when receipts begin to explode, but it will also face somewhat stiffer competition at the ticket counter, which is another way of saying that it won't compete with Bee Movie for the Nov. 2-4 box-office crown. Although $35 million in initial earnings is by no means out of the question, much more than that is extremely unlikely; and although initial PTA should be above $6,000, Gangster's not likely to rank among the top five films in that competitive category for more than one week. Furthermore, unless some serious Best Picture scuttlebutt begins circulating within the next few weeks, expect this American to be deported from the Top 5 by no later than Thanksgiving.

BfYB's Projections for American Gangster
Opening Weekend: $33 million B.O. / 1 PTA point / 4 Top 5 points
Overall: $107 million Total B.O. / 1 PTA point / 9 Top 5 points / 8.5 IMDb

Martian Child — Maybe they just should have called it "Q-SAX." As in, siblings John and Joan, who at one time seemed contractually obligated to appear in every other film together, but here reunite onscreen for the first time since 2000's brilliant, heartbreaking, generation-defining opus High Fidelity. I wish 2007 would turn out to be John Cusack's year. After spending most of the decade wandering in the Hollywood hinterlands of Stupeficity and Must Love Schmatlz, he's finally back to making interesting cinema: 1408, though ultimately disappointing, I thought, boasted one of the most uniquely absorbing horror-film premises I've ever seen; and I've been looking forward to the forthcoming Iraq War surviving dependents' drama Grace Is Gone since "Mission Accomplished" still seemed possible.

With Child, Cusack has finally — and, for those of us who grew up cheering on Lane Meyer, Lloyd Dobler and Nick "The Zone" Falzone, somewhat disconcertingly — graduated to the ranks of the unambiguously adult. Here, he plays a grieving widower who unexpectedly, and quite movingly, falls (topples, even) into the role of prospective parent. Cusack's David echoes in so very many ways the best features of countless other characters he's inhabited: the undeniable social vulnerability, the endearingly affected confidence, the wry self-deprecation. And, in Dennis (played by Bobby Coleman), the child who's so screwed-up that he thinks he's actually better off posing as an illegal alien — from North of the Van Allen Belt, not South of the Border — he meets someone every bit as complex, creative, fragile and needful as himself. (Joan Cusack, in a real stretch, plays David's older, concerned, protective sister.)

They're bolstered by an outstanding supporting cast, including Amanda Peet, Oliver Platt, Richard Schiff, and another frequent Cusack collaborator, Anjelica Huston. Adding dignity and credibility to what could have been an exceedingly syrupy, maudlin exercise — like, say, Patch Adams — is acclaimed Dutch director Menno Meyjes, who had a hand in writing, among other things, the screenplays for such essential acting showcases as The Color Purple, Empire of the Sun and The Siege.

It all sounds terrific — but, then, so did 2007's other very promising psychological drama, Reign Over Me. Releasing a film like Martian Child at this time of the year makes a certain amount of sense, I suppose, if you're hoping for Oscars consideration. But not if it's box-office success you're courting, not up against monster titles like Bee Movie, American Gangster, Fred Claus and Beowulf. Although early reviews have been encouraging and IMDb User Ratings might well exceed 7.0, Martian doesn't stand a chance of earning more than $13 million in its debut, nor of placing in the Top 5 for more than one weekend. I don't expect it be a factor in any weekend's PTA race, either. Therefore, though it breaks my heart to say so, Fantasy Moguls gamers probably shouldn't consider adopting this Child. On the other hand, for a measly $6 (in both the Box Office and Ultimate Moguls games), what were you expecting... The Game Plan? (I know, Plan was $7, but, still...)

BfYB's Projections for Martian Child
Opening Weekend: $11 million B.O. / 0 PTA points / 2 Top 5 points
Overall: $27 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 1 Top 5 point / 7.1 IMDb

Darfur Now — It's awfully hard to argue against the need for broad and immediate U.S. interest in the humanitarian apocalypse that has been slowly annihilating the strife-ridden Sudanese region; political instability, environmental stressors, military aggression and religious intolerance have combined to produce a crucible into which seemingly all the plagues of the modern world have been poured. The statistics are numbing: by some estimates nearly half a million people have been killed, an additional two and a half million have been displaced, and up to 3.5 million may be living in refugee-camp conditions that might optimistically be characterized as "squalor." All this over a good half-decade, during which the international community has largely sat on its hands and whistled while feigning ignorance of places with names like: Cambodia. Bosnia. Rwanda.

So, it should come as no surprise that Darfur Now, a humanitarian call to arms by leading Hollywood advocates George Clooney and Don Cheadle, and featuring the testimonies of real-world heroes and heroines (among them, Pablo Recalde, local head of the World Food Program; Hejewa Adam, a grieving mother forced into the role of freedom fighter; and Luis Moreno-Ocampo, a member of the International Criminal Court at The Hague), may well turn out to be one of the more successful PTA titles of the season. However, it may also very well be one of the least-watched.

Documentaries are a notoriously hard sell in America (especially when they're not about musicians). Sure, star power helps — witness the broad successes of such titles as Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, or Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, or the Morgan Freeman-narrated March of the Penguins. But we're a desperately fickle society. We have no problem paying money to see dramatizations of human suffering (Hotel Rwanda, Blood Diamond, The Constant Gardner, Babel), but grow unaccountably aloof when it gets TOO real, when a film promises to pull back the veil too far for our comfort or when the genuine horrors of the world beyond our borders impose too much on our own reality. Even the uplifting God Grew Tired of Us: The Story of the Lost Boys of Sudan, which could be considered Darfur Now's thematic cousin, managed a mere $300,000 at the domestic box office, although it earned fantastic reviews and an impressive 7.8 IMDb User Rating.

So while Darfur Now could turn out to be a PTA giant — it could easily earn upwards of $25,000 per-screen in its first weekend, and remain competitive in that category through its planned expansion for the Veterans' Day weekend — it has zero chance of collecting more than $4 million in total Box Office revenues. That said, it would not overly surprise me to see Darfur Now earn as many as 11 total PTA points and an IMDb User Rating in the mid-8s.

BfYB's Projections for Darfur Now
Opening Weekend: $65,000 B.O. / 4 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points
Overall: $2.25 million Total B.O. / 4 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 8.2 IMDb

Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten — Don't underestimate this quiet little documentary with the awkward subtitle (straight out of Sarah Connor's tortured subconscious). If this year's breakaway PTA smash Control has taught Fantasy Moguls players anything, it's that you can't underestimate the potential draw of dead musicians. (But, then, anyone who's ever tried to make sense of the Rolling Stones's tour revenues could probably tell you the same thing.) Veteran videographer and music-industry insider Julien Temple's love letter to the late, legendary Clash frontman may well turn out to be one of the seminal musical biographies of our time, on a plane with classic titles like Listen Up: The Lives of Quincy Jones, Leonard Cohen: I'm Your Man and Imagine: John Lennon. (Aside: Is it MPAA policy that every single biographical documentary include a colon? I'm just wondering ... But, I digress.)

In Future, a bevy of film and musical luminaries (including Bono, Anthony Kiedis, John Cusack, Johnny Depp and, in what must be deemed his absolutely FINAL film role, Grand Moff Wilhuff Tarkin himself, Peter Cushing) gather to reminisce about the man and lionize the musician, whose influence transcended not only generations, but, perhaps, media itself. For faithful worshippers at the artistic altar known as punk, Joe Strummer might come very close to becoming a sort of video Gospel. Although it's unlikely to break the $1 million mark, don't be surprised if — so to speak — at this season's box office, at least as far as Per-Theater Average is concerned, The Future is now.

BfYB's Projections for Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten
Opening Weekend: $54,000 B.O. / 5 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points
Overall: $650,000 Total B.O. / 9 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 7.6 IMDb

Nico Interruptus: Yep, there's more. Check in on Tuesday for Part III of the very first Bank for Your Buck, the Rat King of Fantasy Moguls's splendid spiel about the films of Nov. 9. Thank you. Good night, and good luck.

Like Remy from this Summer's Ratatouille, Nico's a smart, scrappy, savvy scavenger with a talent for combining ingredients to manufacture new and remarkable odors. Unlike Remy, he doesn't need a kitchen to do so. Waft some fresh perspective over to nicodemus@fantasymoguls.com and see if that won't clear his furry little head.