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November 02, 2007

BANK FOR YOUR BUCK: Fantasy Moguls's Rat Renegade Returns With the Longest Moguls Column Ever Written (Part I)

by Nicodemus the Sage

Greetings and salutations!  Nicodemus here, marking my long-delayed return to the lineup of Fantasy Moguls featured contributors with the premiere edition of a brand-new, twice-monthly column: Bank for Your Buck!

In this new feature, I'll be ranking each Season's best values for both the Ultimate Movie Moguls and Box Office Moguls games, as well as comparing and contrasting similarly-priced titles to identify the ones with the greatest potential to help your slate. At the beginning of each three-month period, I'll offer a seasonal overview, listing for each game the twenty films, regardless of cost, that I think will offer Moguls gamers the very best "bank" for their buck — the highest Box-Office revenues, the most Top 5 Finishes, the most exceptional IMDb User Ratings and the best opportunities to grab PTA points — ranking them, competitively, against each other.

Then, over the remaining two and a half months for each season, I'll be breaking down available titles according to cost, examining the major entries in every category — the high-, moderate-, low- and economy-priced titles — and pinpointing their relative strengths and liabilities, opportunities and risks ... the promise and the peril. Finally, as each season winds down to its conclusion, I'll be working to point out any remaining worthwhile last-minute pickups that could help nudge you ahead of the pack, as well as taking a look back and reviewing the hits, misses and totally mystifying events of each three-month period. Each edition of Bank for Your Buck will also include a detailed summary of films opening during the next two weeks, so no stone will be left unturned and no possibility unexplored!

It's a new concept for Fantasy Moguls, a tool that, if I do my job correctly, should both help gamers develop long-term, seasonal strategies, and give you the tools you need to keep your slates competitive throughout each 13-week cycle, to stay agile and ahead of the curve as your studios' needs and, by necessity, tactics change with each new week's league standings. It's all about identifying opportunities and presenting you with the information you'll be needing to capitalize on your studio's investments. Because, at the end of the day, although Fantasy Moguls as a game is fun in and of itself, we all want to WIN. ... Right?

So, without further delay, let's dive right in and take a look at the Top 20 films in each category! (Analysis of selected films, as well as official BfYB projections, follow.)

Top 20 Holiday Season Bank for Your Buck Box Office Moguls Titles
1) Cassandra's Dream ($2)
2) Margot at the Wedding ($2)
3) The Orphanage ($2)
4) The Bucket List ($8)
5) Fred Claus ($17)
6) The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything ($4)
7) John Rambo ($5)
8) His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass ($34)
9) Charlie Wilson's War ($14)
10) Hitman ($14)
11) Enchanted ($16)
12) Beowulf ($42)
13) Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem ($8)
14) P.S. I Love You ($13)
15) 27 Dresses ($10)
16) Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story ($11)
17) Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium ($17)
18) No Country for Old Men ($7)
19) Juno ($7)
20) Untitled JJ Abrams Film ($17)

Top 20 Holiday Season Bank for Your Buck Ultimate Moguls Picks
1) I'm Not There ($11)
2) Cassandra's Dream ($13)
3) Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten ($4)
4) There Will Be Blood ($17)
5) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly ($9)
6) The Orphanage ($2)
7) The Killing of John Lennon ($6)
8) The Bucket List ($15)
9) Charlie Wilson's War ($22)
10) Nanking ($9)
11) No Country for Old Men ($22)
12) Juno ($21)
13) I Am Legend ($36)
14) American Gangster ($25)
15) His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass ($31)
16) Beowulf ($40)
17) Bee Movie ($29)
18) The Kite Runner ($25)
19) Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street ($29)
20) Untitled JJ Abrams Film ($24)

BfYB Analyses:

27 Dresses — Katherine Heigl is Hollywood's current "it" girl, riding high after her breakout theatrical performance in this year's Knocked Up. Although there's something familiar about the premise — cough, cough, My Best Friend's Wedding, cough, cough — the holidays are a perfect time for this kind of film, and Heigl has more than enough winning charm to pull off even the most derivative role. Dresses will hit the January box office just in time to provide an alternative to thundering, oversized, mass-destructive genetic mutants and, erm, Sylvester Stallone.
BfYB's Projections for 27 Dresses: $58 million Total B.O. / 5 PTA points / 7 Top 5 points / 6.9 IMDb

Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem — Yeah, I know, it's a sequel that wasn't really necessary, but then again, they rarely are, are they? Still, at only $8 (in the Box Office Moguls game), it's hard to go wrong with this bastard heir of two classic film franchises. It's bound to draw younger males who are still reeling from Beowulf and who can't quite wait for J.J. Abrams's January thrill-fest. It won't make anyone rich, but it's a pretty fair pickup for the price, if you can handle the hit to your User Ratings.
BfYB's Projections for Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem: $44 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 4 Top 5 points / 5.3 IMDb

American Gangster. (See detailed analysis below.)

Bee Movie. (See detailed analysis below.)

Beowulf — Yeah, it's expensive, no question. Still, if you're looking for genuine Bank for Your Buck, it's hard to find a better deal than this one — in EITHER Fantasy Moguls game. There's a reason why it's so pricey: Beowulf could well dominate the Holiday Season like no other title, racking up as many as four consecutive Top 5 Finishes, two in the top spot. If there is to be a successor to 300 before the year is out — a broadly appealing, pack-'em-in thrill ride that plays to crowds of all ages for week after cash register-ringing week — it's going to be either Beowulf, or His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass. Although I think both films will probably surpass $200 million, this is the one that's going to end up on top. (The stylized graphic content, while potentially off-putting to parents of younger children, will likely result in Beowulf's profits being boosted even higher, as adults are convinced to give the fantasy epic a whirl.)
BfYB's Projections for Beowulf: $240 million Total B.O. / 7 PTA points / 17 Top 5 points / 7.8 IMDb

The Bucket List — This is, potentially, one of those under-the-radar films that no one sees coming but that, in retrospect, everyone should have known would be a hit. Jack Nicholson doesn't need any help opening a film, but teaming up with Morgan Freeman for a life-affirming geezer buddy movie sounds just too good to be true. Although it doesn't enter wide release until Jan. 11, this film will have two weeks to earn word-of-mouth and critical momentum, and the better part of January will be the perfect time for audiences to enjoy Jack at his bigmouthed, narcissistic Melvin Udall best. I expect this Bucket to kick all kinds of, er, bahookie as the Holiday season winds down toward its simply monstrous close.
BfYB's Projections for The Bucket List: $74 million Total B.O. / 3 PTA points / 11 Top 5 points / 8.0 IMDb

Cassandra's Dream — Few American directors inspire as much consistent loyalty from their audiences as Woody Allen does. The distinctive, diminutive auteur always manages to assemble phenomenal casts for his projects, and this Dream is no exception: across-the-pond luminaries Colin Farrell, Ewan McGregor and Tom Wilkinson are all aboard for Cassandra, which is to feature a love triangle whose implications are perhaps a touch darker than we've seen in his previous works. Advance word is that this film is a return to form for Allen, after last year's disappointing Scoop. Decent-to-phenomenal PTA is a given; the only question, really, is how high the Box Office receipts might go.
BfYB's Projections for Cassandra's Dream: $20.5 million Total B.O. / 13 PTA points / 2 Top 5 points / 8.2 IMDb

Charlie Wilson's War — As much as American audiences seem to have grown weary of serious, timely topics in their entertainment, it's a good bet that the right film, carefully balanced at the intersection of reality and farce, can shake them out of their doldrums. Of course, it's Tom Hanks to the rescue (along with Julia Roberts and Phillip Seymour Hoffman), in a tale so stupefyingly ridiculous, it simply had to be true. Don't be at all surprised if Charlie Wilson makes a run at $100 million; stranger things have happened, as audiences are certain to discover.
BfYB's Projections for Charlie Wilson's War: $82 million Total B.O. / 6 PTA points / 11 Top 5 points / 8.1 IMDb

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly — Jean-Dominique Bauby's timeless, tragic, triumphant memoir here finally receives its long-deserved film adaptation, and director Julian Schnabel — who previously helmed the brilliant Basquiat — won top honors for the result at the 2007 Cannes Film Festival. This title won't play to a very broad audience in America — neither, frankly, did the book — but it will likely draw solid crowds in the urban areas where it will be screened, at least for a few weeks. Expect User Ratings to be through the roof; this is, perhaps, an essential film for Ultimate Moguls gamers.
BfYB's Projections for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: $8.5 million Total B.O. / 8 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 8.3 IMDb

Enchanted — Very, very quietly, this precious little film is garnering a potentially huge following — big even by Disney standards, which is really, really saying something. The mixture of traditional animation and live-action footage, which will likely be totally new to a generation not raised on Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, promises to draw massive numbers of preteens and their families, and word is that Enchanted is tracking so well, a sequel (or two) is all but assured. Never, ever underestimate the power of magic, especially when it comes courtesy of Uncle Walt's company.
BfYB's Projections for Enchanted: $93 million Total B.O. / 3 PTA points / 13 Top 5 points / 6.9 IMDb

Fred Claus. (See detailed analysis below.)

His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass — Look, it's got armored polar bears! It's always a good sign when the studio greenlights not one, but two sequels before the first installment in a trilogy is even released; word is that as much as 20 minutes of His Dark Materials, originally slated for this inaugural chapter of the epic, otherwordly tale, was excised and will be incorporated into its sequel (titled The Subtle Knife) in order to resolve some nagging pacing issues and to make the next installment flow that much better. At this point, it's not a question of whether Materials will be big, it's a matter of how big will it be? My bet: Big enough to challenge the Narnia franchise to determine who the rightful heir to The Lord of the Rings really is. Expect this film, together with I Am Legend, to dominate the December box office.
BfYB's Projections for His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass: $205 million Total B.O. / 3 PTA points / 12 Top 5 points / 7.6 IMDb

Hitman — Here's another film with limitless potential. I didn't see this one coming until very recently, but it's well situated to make an absolute killing at the Holiday ticket counter, picking up where Beowulf left off and bridging the gap between it and I Am Legend for mature teenagers and younger adults. It's even possible that Hitman will score a Number One ranking in the week before His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass "hits," rising from an initial debut in the Number Two or Three spot.
BfYB's Projections for Hitman: $88 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 12 Top 5 points / 7.3 IMDb

I Am Legend — What is there to say? It's Will Smith, it's vampires, it's the end of the world. Who says there's no Santa Claus? 1,000 Days of Night could be slowed by an R rating (yet to be determined), but not appreciably; the more inappropriate its content is for teenagers, the more adults will want to check it out (and, coincidentally, the more teens will be intrigued, also). I don't think it'll make it to $200 million — that adult rating (if it happens) will cost it, some — but it could be close. Some Legends are so fantastic, they're repeated over and over again. In a Holiday Season full of interesting choices, this — and perhaps Beowulf — is the only one that will hold up to successive viewings. He's not just the King of Summer any more.
BfYB's Projections for I Am Legend: $190 million Total B.O. / 8 PTA points / 19 Top 5 points / 8.0 IMDb

I'm Not There — The groundbreaking Bob Dylan biopic could well become a media sensation — already, Todd Haynes's innovative casting is drawing all sorts of attention, and the film will continue to build impressive buzz as the weeks tick by. Although it's not likely to receive a wide release, There might become one of those "destination" titles that keeps filling a select number of theaters all through the season.
BfYB's Projections for I'm Not There: $5.5 million Total B.O. / 12 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 8.7 IMDb

Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten. (See detailed analysis below.)

John Rambo — This one's easy. For only $5 (in the Box Office game), Fantasy Moguls gamers are all but guaranteed a Top-2 ranking and several PTA points, not to mention a minium $34 million in weekend Box-Office receipts. While it might not attain true blockbuster status, Rambo's a pretty decent bet for just a nickel, if only you can afford the plummeting User Rating.
BfYB's Projections for John Rambo: $42.5 million Total B.O. / 5 PTA points / 5 Top 5 points / 5.7 IMDb

Juno — This quirky little saga of unintentional pregnancy looks poised to do big things at the holiday Box Office, and could well earn a wider release if it's anywhere near as good as advance reviews suggest. Decent IMDb and several PTA points are a lock; how high the Box Office goes depends on how pervasive positive word-of-mouth is from the outset. Juno has all the hallmarks of a sleeper sensation; it could be the very best stocking stuffer you receive this year.
BfYB's Projections for Juno: $31.5 million Total B.O. / 9 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 8.6 IMDb

The Killing of John Lennon — As off-putting as its title is, this is a documentary that could really stretch its legs at the nation's art houses. Although it's not likely to be a sensation for longer than a couple of weeks, that should be more than enough time to pull some PTA points; a wider release is highly unlikely, however.
BfYB's Projections for The Killing of John Lennon: $2.4 million Total B.O. / 6 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 7.3 IMDb

The Kite Runner — The film adaptation of one of the most beloved novels of the new century has some obstacles to overcome, notably, its subject matter. How keen will American audiences be to see a tale about Taliban-controlled Afghanistan? Still, Khaled Hosseini's timeless story of honor and redemption has an incredibly loyal following, and if early reviews are good enough, this high-flying Kite could run away with the PTA title for the better part of a month.
BfYB's Projections for The Kite Runner: $29 million Total B.O. / 7 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 8.3 IMDb

Margot at the Wedding — Noah Baumbach's character study about the often perplexing nature of adult relationships could be a breakout sensation, and is assured of netting some impressive PTA totals. This is, together with Juno and The Kite Runner, another candidate for sleeper hit of the Holiday Season.
BfYB's Projections for Margot at the Wedding: $17 million Total B.O. / 8 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 7.2 IMDb

Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium — Uh-oh, it's magic! [Sigh] You know you're getting old when good, wholesome family entertainment begins to annoy you for no discernible reason. Although I have no illusions about the quality of this Emporium's wares, neither can I deny its appeal to young 'uns. Fact is, Magorium could even out-draw Enchanted ... though I doubt it.
BfYB's Projections for Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium: $82 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 7 Top 5 points / 6.3 IMDb

No Country for Old Men. (See detailed analysis below.)

The Orphanage — The Juan Antonio Bayona film, produced by Guillermo del Toro, has already won international acclaim, and will be Spain's nominee to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for Best Foreign Film next year. The buzz on Orphanage has been solid from the start, but I have doubts about whether it can play to late-Holiday Season audiences, particularly when strong indie titles like There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men will still be going strong. I don't like betting against del Toro, but I don't see The Orphanage gaining enough momentum to become a true breakout sensation. However, some PTA points and a very good IMDb User Rating are probably in the offing.
BfYB's Projections for The Orphanage: $14.75 million Total B.O. / 2 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 7.6 IMDb

P.S. I Love You — It's hard to imagine a superb actress like Hilary Swank, in the prime of her already-legendary career, taking a break from material of substance to do cheesy, syrupy-sweet rom-coms, and, actually, that's probably not what she's doing here. I Love You, based on Cecelia Ahern's best-selling novel, looks to be that rarest of Hollywood gems: A decent romantic film that guys might not feel embarrassed about seeing with their significant others. I've been wrong about films like this before — I was one of perhaps eight people on the planet who actually thought Message in a Bottle was going to be worth watching — but I have a good feeling about P.S. I Love You. Then again, it might just be that Chinese takeout I had a few hours ago.
BfYB's Projections for P.S. I Love You: $78 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 7 Top 5 points / 7.3 IMDb

The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything — It's hard to take a bushel of singing vegetables seriously — no, I'm not talking about the Grateful Dead — but, as many parents can attest to, VeggieTales are an absolutely integral component of modern child-rearing, along with The Wiggles, Dora the Explorer and Endurance. Those blood-curdling screams you're liable to hear from time to time, echoing down the heedless streets and alleys of your subdivision, are almost certainly the result of a formerly sane grown-up having been subjected to "Barbara Manatee" one too many times. The fact is, Big Idea's, erm, big idea, now well into its second decade, is a bona fide entertainment powerhouse, whether we like it or not. Although Pirates certainly won't set any records, they won't go quietly, either. Dammit.
BfYB's Projections for The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything: $33 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 5 Top 5 points / 6.5 IMDb

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street — Although I'm concerned that Todd — to all appearances, an extremely faithful adaptation of Stephen Sondheim's classic, Tony Award-winning Broadway production — won't play to Middle America, the fact is, it's hard to go too wrong with Tim Burton and Johnny Depp. High PTA is pretty much guaranteed, and if Burton's vision catches fire with critics, the sky is pretty much the limit. Although the R-rating may put off parents who think they're taking the tots to see the next Edward Scissorhands, Sweeney Todd's gleeful, gratuitous gore could make this title MORE attractive to young adults.
BfYB's Projections for Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street: $73.5 million Total B.O. / 9 PTA points / 6 Top 5 points / 7.1 IMDb

There Will Be Blood — Paul Thomas Anderson's long-awaited adaptation of Upton Sinclair's turn-of-the-century wildcatter epic promises to be one of the best films of the waning year, and it's already garnering the kinds of reviews that practically demand recognition by the Academy. This could well be the role of Daniel Day-Lewis's storied career, so expect this title to weigh in with an impressive PTA haul. Paramount Vantage's gambit of drawing Blood out slowly, in order to maximize public anticipation and build solid word-of-mouth, will play directly into Ultimate Moguls gamers' hands.
BfYB's Projections for There Will Be Blood: $29 million Total B.O. / 15 PTA points / 0 Top 5 points / 8.7 IMDb

Untitled J.J. Abrams Film — Okay, here's the thing: Imagine you're a columnist for Motor Trend, and you're assigned by your editor to preview next year's hot, new, straight-off-the-assembly-line BMW. Only problem is, you have no idea what it will look like, how big its engine will be, or how it'll handle. Or, even, what it'll be called. Now, you have some idea of how totally friggin' impossible it is, at this (apparently) juncture, to say anything, with any specificity whatsoever, about that big monster movie the creator of Alias and Lost is prepping, whatever the hell it's called. All we know is, it could be BIG. Record-setting big. On the other hand, it could be bantha poodu. And, in fact, it might well be both. Well, we probably know a couple things. First, it's going to have a massive opening weekend, perhaps as big as $60 million, and will probably earn a good handful of PTA points before the close of the season. Second, it's probably going to have its lunch eaten by Rambo when it bows one week later. Still, not-Cloverfield probably has a shot at $90 million in its first two weeks, which could make it a steal at $17 in the Box Office game and $24 in Ultimate Moguls.
BfYB's Projections for Untitled J.J. Abrams Film: $87 million Total B.O. / 8 PTA points / 9 Top 5 points / 7.3 IMDb

Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story — Think Forrest Gump-meets-Tenacious D. I'll say this for Judd Apatow: he sure can pull a cast together. Walk Hard features the talents of Paul Rudd, Jason Schwartzman, Jack Black, Harold Ramis and Eddie Vedder — not to mention, the grand high poobah of filmic goofiness, John C. Reilly in the titular role. It can't possibly NOT be a hit, folks. No one will give it a great User Rating, but half the teenagers in the nation will go see Dewey Cox. And the decline of Western civilization continues ...
BfYB's Projections for Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story: $59 million Total B.O. / 0 PTA points / 3 Top 5 points / 7.0 IMDb

Nicodemus has a lot to say. Continue reading his epic-length Holiday Season overview in Part II.

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Comments

slight

I think it is woman that have helped alot of films reach higher box office receits around christmas time. These films usually open in The last two weeks of Decemeber and make most of their money in January over several weekends, but the films aren't always romances or films geared towards them. This year I think these are the films that will add some box office over the holidays;P.S. I LOve You, The Great Debaters,The Bucket List,Cassandra's Dream (maybe),and possible these other ones : Charlie Wilson's War, There Will Be Blood, and The Kite Runner. Here are some example from past years, films I think woman helped with the film(s) getting a bigger box office take, The Pursuit of Happiness,Dreamgirls,The Family Stone, Brokeback Mountain,Rumor Has It, Memoirs of a Geisha, The Phantom of the Opera, Sideways, and Something's Gotta Give. Just to name a few and yah unfortunantly a few Sandra Bullock stinkers.

Posted by: slight | November 02, 2007 at 10:44 AM

Matthew Martin

Cloverfield: do the words Snakes On A Plane mean anything.

Hitman: I see The Mist doing better business.

Posted by: Matthew Martin | November 05, 2007 at 01:23 PM

Nicodemus the Stubborn

slight: It's a good point (about the power of the female demographic at the Holiday Season Box Office); I certainly expect the bottom lines of titles like 'P.S. I Love You,' '27 Dresses,' 'Awake,' 'August Rush,' 'Atonement,' 'Cassandra's Dream,' 'Margot at the Wedding,' 'The Kite Runner,' 'Love in the Time of Cholera,' 'The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,' and 'Nanking' to be boosted by the fairer sex these coming months. 'Charlie Wilson's War,' I think, will be a broad enough hit that it won't be overly reliant on women to ensure its success; the same goes for 'The Bucket List.' I'm honestly not sure, yet, what to make of 'The Great Debaters,' except that I don't expect it to be a very successful Box-Office prospect... and I don't know if I agree that 'There Will Be Blood' will be a solid film for women, although it's absolutely true that Daniel Day-Lewis has his admirers. Your list of past gender-specific performers was very comprehensive and accurate, to it I would add 'Cold Mountain' and also this year's 'Hairspray.'

Here are my preliminary (read: pre-season) predictions for all of the above listed titles:


'Love in the Time of Cholera' (Friday 11/16): $12.5M B.O.; 0 Top 5 pts.; 7 PTA; 7.6 IMDb ($19 Ultimate Moguls / $5 Box Office Moguls)

'Margot at the Wedding' (Friday 11/16): $17.00M B.O.; 0-1 Top 5 pts.; 8 PTA; 7.2 IMDb ($17 / $2)

'August Rush' (Wednesday 11/21): $24.0M B.O.; 0-1 Top 5 pts.; 0-1 PTA; 7.4 IMDb ($7 / $10)

'Awake' (Friday 11/30): $16.0M B.O.; 0-1 Top 5 pts.; 0-1 PTA; 8.4 IMDb (Not Yet Priced)

'The Diving Bell and the Butterfly' (Friday 11/30): $8.5M B.O.; 0 Top 5 pts.; 8 PTA; 8.3 IMDb ($9 /$2 )

'Atonement' (Friday 12/07): $23M B.O.; 0-1 Top 5 pts.; 5 PTA; 8.5 IMDb ($25 / $7)

'Nanking' (Wednesday 12/12): $425K B.O.; 0 Top 5 points; 0-1 PTA; 8.9 IMDb ($9 / $2)

'The Kite Runner' (Friday 12/14): $29M; 0-1 Top 5 pts.; 7 PTA; 8.3 IMDb ($25 / $9)

'P.S. I Love You' (Friday 12/21): $78M B.O.; 5-8 Top 5 pts.; 0-1 PTA; 7.3 IMDb ($13 / $13)

'The Bucket List' (Tuesday 12/25): $74M B.O.; 5-11 Top 5 pts.; 3-4 PTA; 8.0 IMDb ($15 / $8)

'Charlie Wilson's War' (Tuesday 12/25): $82M B.O.; 8-14 Top 5 pts.; 6 PTA; 8.1 IMDb ($22 / $14)

'The Great Debaters' (Tuesday 12/25): $16.5M B.O.; 0-1 Top 5 pts.; 0 PTA; 7.2 IMDb ($12 / $5)

'There Will Be Blood' (Wednesday 12/26): $29M B.O.; 0 Top 5 pts.; 15 PTA; 8.7 IMDb ($17 / $9)

'Cassandra's Dream' (Friday 12/28): $20.5M B.O.; 0-3 Top 5 pts.; 13 PTA; 8.2 IMDb ($13 / $2)

'27 Dresses' (Friday 01/11): $58M B.O.; 6-8 Top 5 pts.; 5+ PTA; 6.9 IMDb ($14 / $10)


Matthew: I get what you're saying about 'SoAP,' but I don't think any amount of bad publicity is going to keep 'Cloverfield' from earning less than $90M, honestly. The buzz on this film is already FAR greater than ever it was on 'Snakes,' and it's only going to get more massive. I think a more accurate comparison COULD be 'Godzilla.' As far as 'The Mist' goes, yeah, it could do better than my (admittedly, low-balled) estimates for it ($23M B.O.; 1-3 Top 5 pts.; 0-1 PTA; 6.6 IMDb), but it won't outperform 'Hitman' ($88M B.O.; 8-16 Top 5 pts.; 0-2 PTA; 7.3 IMDb). I even think my Box Office projections for 'Hitman' might be ridiculously LOW; it could go higher than $100M. We'll find out in a few months.


Thanks for the feedback, guys!


I remain, as always...


Nico.

Posted by: Nicodemus the Stubborn | November 05, 2007 at 07:42 PM

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