WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Bee' Buzzes the Competition w/$26.58M; 'Gangster' Second w/$24.23M; 'Fred' Feeble in Third w/$18.66M; 'Lions' Hits Historic Lows for Cruise; Coens's 'Old Men' Stands Tall!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY NIGHT: As I first reported Friday night, Bee Movie (Dreamworks) will win the Veteran's Day weekend at the box office, switching places with last weekend's winner, American Gangster (Universal). Jerry Seinfeld's "pet project" swooped in for $11.67 million on Saturday and, with about half of America's school-age kids off on Monday, Sunday will Bee stronger than usual. I've penciled in an estimated 26 percent drop, which will have Movie at $26.58 million for its second weekend.
Bee Movie's domestic cume will be $72.79 million at the end of the weekend, which gives it the seventh-best gross for a Dreamworks animated film after 10 days of release. Jeff and Jerry's "honey pot" will have likely posted the all-time 21st-best 10-day gross in the history of animation.
ALL-TIME TOP 25 DOMESTIC GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS AFTER 10 DAYS OF RELEASE
1. Shrek the Third — $203.3 million
2. Shrek 2 — $184.9 million
3. Finding Nemo — $144 million
4. The Incredibles — $143.3 million
5. The Simpsons Movie — $128 million
6. Monsters, Inc. — $122.1 million
7. Cars — $117 million
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $115.8 million
9. Ratatouille — $109.5 million
10. Madagascar — $100.4 million
11. Happy Feet — $99.2 million
12. Shrek — $99 million
13. Ice Age — $87.3 million
14. Shark Tale — $87.3 million
15. Toy Story 2 — $80.5 million
16. Chicken Little — $80.4 million
17. Tarzan — $77.5 million
18. Lilo & Stitch — $77 million
19. Over the Hedge — $76.1 million
20. Dinosaur — $75.4 million
21. Bee Movie — $72.79 million (Estimate)
22. Robots — $66 million
23. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie — $58.7 million
24. The Rugrats Movie — $57.8 million
25. Pokemon: The First Movie — $57.3 million
American Gangster surged 42 percent Friday-to-Saturday for a strong $10.25 million. That should translate to a three-day of $24.23 million, an excellent hold from its opening weekend. With $80.59 million in the bank by Monday morning, Gangster moves into the all-time Top 10 10-day performers among R-rated movies:
ALL-TIME TOP 10 DOMESTIC GROSSES FOR R-RATED FILMS AFTER 10 DAYS OF RELEASE
1. The Passion of the Christ — $174.3 million
2. The Matrix Reloaded — $174.1 million
3. 300 — $129.1 million
4. Hannibal — $103.5 million
5. The Matrix Revolutions — $102.7 million
6. Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines — $90.8 million
7. Scary Movie — $89 million
8. American Pie 2 — $87.2 million
9. 8 Mile — $84.4 million
10. American Gangster — $80.59 million (Estimate)
Gangster is also the biggest movie of Denzel Washington's career, easily besting last year's Inside Man:
ALL-TIME TOP 10 DOMESTIC GROSSES FOR DENZEL WASHINGTON FILMS AFTER 10 DAYS OF RELEASE
1. American Gangster — $80.59 million (Estimate)
2. Inside Man — $52.5 million
3. Remember the Titans — $45.9 million
4. John Q — $39.8 million
5. The Manchurian Candidate — $37.9 million
6. Training Day — $37.7 million
7. Déjà Vu — $36.5 million
8. The Pelican Brief — $34.8 million
9. Man On Fire — $33.5 million
10. Crimson Tide — $23.6 million
Of the weekend's new releases, The Coen Brothers have made the strongest impression as Joel and Ethan have blown away the specialty competition with No Country For Old Men (Miramax). With just 28 locations, the Javier Bardem-Tommy Lee Jones-Josh Brolin thriller has scored a $1.2 million weekend for a three-day PTA of $43,000-plus. That easily becomes the all-time best opening weekend PTA for a Coen Brothers movie.
ALL-TIME TOP OPENING WEEKEND PER THEATRE AVERAGES FOR A COEN BROTHERS MOVIE
1. No Country for Old Men — $43,056 PTA (Estimate)
2. O Brother, Where Art Thou — $39,000 PTA
3. Fargo — $20,285 PTA
4. The Man Who Wasn’t There — $17,036 PTA
5. The Ladykillers — $7,981 PTA
6. Intolerable Cruelty — $4,884 PTA
7. The Big Lebowski — $4,584 PTA
The three new wide releases are all major disappointments. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) will finish the weekend with only $18.66 million, a huge miss for analysts forecasting a possible $30 million. P2, the latest release to be handled by Summit Entertainment, is unlikely to even break $2 million. The worst news, however, is reserved for Tom Cruise.
The new head of United Artists, Cruise, is having a tough weekend. He and producing partner Paula Wagner chose to make Lions for Lambs the first movie from the new UA, and it has found a way to underperform already low expectations. Lambs received only a 22 percent bump on Saturday for a sorrowful $2.62 million, and it will likely finish the weekend with only $6.47 million equating to a $2,925 PTA. Amazingly, that is the second-worst Per Theatre Average of Tom Cruise's career, ahead of only 1983 teen comedy Losin' It, which co-starred Shelly Long:
ALL-TIME OPENING WEEKEND PER THEATRE AVERAGES FOR TOM CRUISE MOVIES
1. Born on the Fourth of July — 5 locations, $34,404 PTA
2. Taps — 3 locations, $31,001 PTA
3. Magnolia — 7 locations, $27,657 PTA
4. War of the Worlds — 3,908 locations, $16,601 PTA
5. Mission: Impossible II — 3,653 locations, $15,835 PTA
6. Mission: Impossible — 3,012 locations, $15,085 PTA
7. Interview with the Vampire — 2,604 locations, $13,974 PTA
8. Minority Report — 3,001 locations, $11,888 PTA
9. Mission: Impossible III — 4,054 locations, $11,776 PTA
10. The Firm — 2,393 locations, $10,614 PTA
11. The Color of Money — 635 locations, $10,012 PTA
12. Vanilla Sky — 2,742 locations, $9,123 PTA
13. Eyes Wide Shut — 2,411 locations, $9,002 PTA
14. Cocktail — 1,404 locations, $8,397 PTA
15. The Last Samarai — 2,908 locations, $8,346 PTA
16. A Few Good Men — 1,925 locations, $8,061 PTA
17. Top Gun — 1,028 locations, $7.969 PTA
18. Collateral — 3,188 locations, $7,748 PTA
19. Jerry Maguire — 2,531 locations, $6,750 PTA
20. Days of Thunder — 2,307 locations, $6,714 PTA
21. Far & Away — 1,583 locations, $6,440 PTA
22. Risky Business — 670 locations, $6,381 PTA
23. The Outsiders — 829 locations, $6,113 PTA
24. Rain Man — 1,248 locations, $5,613 PTA
25. All the Right Moves — 442 locations, $3,677 PTA
26. Legend — 1,187 locations, $3,589 PTA
27. Lions For Lambs — 2,215 locations, $2,925 PTA (Estimate)
28. Losin' It — 180 locations, $2,429 PTA
Finally, in the battle of Bollywood blockbusters, Eros Entertainment's Om Shanti Om has scored an easy win over Sony's Saawariya ... at least in the United States. Om Shanti Om grabbed $1.6 million domestic for a $14,000-plus three-day PTA, compared to $210,000 and $5,620 per for the first Bollywood film fully-funded by a major U.S. studio.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $11.67 million, $2,959 PTA [$64.1 million cume]
2. American Gangster (Universal) — $10.25 million, $3,352 PTA [$73.8 million cume]
3. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $7.68 million, $2,132 PTA [$12.9 million cume]
4. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $2.66 million, $1,372 PTA [$29.3 million cume]
5. NEW Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $2.62 million, $1,184 PTA [$4.77 million cume]
6. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $2.08 million, $719 PTA [$56.6 million cume
7. The Game Plan (Disney) — $1.19 million, $553 PTA [$84.8 million cume]
8. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $895,000, $528 PTA [$36.7 million cume]
9. NEW P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $815,000, $382 PTA [$1.47 cume]
10. Martian Child (New Line) — $803,000, $398 PTA [$5.6 million cume]
11. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $801,000, $697 PTA [$35.1 million cume]
12. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $752,000, $828 PTA [$52.8 million cume]
13. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $725,000, $6,360 PTA [$1.11 million cume]
14. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $653,000, $682 PTA [$16.6 million cume]
15. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $471,000- $798 PTA [$12.2 million cume]
* NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $469,000, $16,750 PTA [$819,000
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $390,000, $825 PTA [$72.9 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $370,000, $636 PTA [$22.1 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $363,000, $940 PTA [$9 million cume]
* Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $339,000, $1,228 PTA [$3.4 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $288,000, $1,007 PTA [$3.1 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $282,000, $2,311 PTA [$1 million cume]
* NEW Saawariya (Sony) — $201,000, $2,365 PTA [$341,000 cume]
* NEW After Dark's Horrorfest (After Dark) — $169,000, $523 PTA [$299,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus) — $94,000, $847 PTA [$3.6 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $58,000, $446 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $57,000, $375 PTA [$319.1 million cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $37,000, $1,370 PTA [$516,554 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $12,000, $500 PTA [$55,337 cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $9,651, $603 PTA [$52,642 cume]
* NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $3,524, $1,175 PTA [$10,300 cume]
* NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $1,574, $1,574 PTA [$2,564 cume]
* NEW The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $1,104, $1,104 PTA [$1,940 cume]
* NEW Cocalero (Cinema Tropical) — $1,015, $1,015 PTA [$1,756 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $26.58 million, $6,740 PTA [$72.7 million cume]
2. American Gangster (Universal) — $24.23 million, $7,924 PTA [$80.5 million cume]
3. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $18.66 million, $5,181 PTA [$18.66 million cume]
4. NEW Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $6.47 million, $2,925 PTA [$6.47 million cume]
5. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $6.05 million, $3,122 PTA [$30.8 million cume]
6. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $4.86 million, $1,676 PTA [$57.9 million cume
7. The Game Plan (Disney) — $2.71 million, $1,258PTA [$82.7 million cume]
8. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $2.02 million, $1,192 PTA [$37.2 million cume]
9. NEW P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $1.94 million, $914 PTA [$1.94 million cume]
10. Martian Child (New Line) — $1.81 million, $900 PTA [$6 million cume]
11. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $1.64 million, $1,432 PTA [$35.5 million cume]
12. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $1.6 million, $14,061 PTA [$1.6 million cume]
13. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $1.52 million, $1,683 PTA [$53.2 million cume]
14. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $1.36 million, $1,431 PTA [$16.9 million cume]
15. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.2 million, $43,056 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $1.05 million, $1,794 PTA [$12.5 million cume]
* Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $938,510, $3,400 PTA [$3.8 million cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $881,500, $1,864PTA [$73.2 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $838,300, $1,440 PTA [$22.3 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $806,280, $2,089 PTA [$9.2 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $654,800, $2,290 PTA [$3.3 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $625,480, $5,127 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* NEW Saawariya (Sony) — $477,680, $5,620 PTA [$477,680 cume]
* NEW After Dark's Horrorfest (After Dark) — $395,330, $1,224 PTA [$395,330 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus) — $210.040, $1,892 PTA [$3.7 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $134,540, $1,035 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $117,920, $776 PTA [$319.1 million cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $89,380, $3,310 PTA [$543,934 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $32,400, $1,350 PTA [$63,737 cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $24,103, $1,506 PTA [$58,915 cume]
* NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $12,590, $4,197 PTA [$12,590 cume]
* NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $3,713, $3,713 PTA [$3,713 cume]
* NEW The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $2,690, $2,690 PTA [$2,690 cume]
* NEW Cocalero (Cinema Tropical) — $2,416, $2,416 PTA [$2,416 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 28 locations, $16,750 PTA
2. NEW Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $6,360 PTA
3. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,059 locations, $3,352 PTA
4. NEW Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,944 locations, $2,959 PTA
5. NEW Saawariya (Sony) — 85 locations, $2,365 PTA
6. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 122 locations, $2,311 PTA
7. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — 3,603 locations, $2,132 PTA
8. NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — 1 location, $1,574 PTA
9. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — 1,941 locations, $1,372 PTA
10. Control (MGM/Weinstein) — 27 locations, $1,370 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 28 locations, $43,056 PTA
2. NEW Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $14,061 PTA
3. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,059 locations, $7,924 PTA
4. NEW Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,944 locations, $6,740 PTA
5. NEW Saawariya (Sony) — 85 locations, $5,620 PTA
6. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — 3,603 locations, $5,181 PTA
7. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 122 locations, $5,127 PTA
8. NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $4,197 PTA
9. NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — 1 location, $3,713 PTA
10. Bella (Roadside Attractions) — 276 locations, $3,400 PTA
FRIDAY NIGHT: A funny thing happened at America's multiplexes this weekend. With the industry focused on newcomer Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) and hard-charging holdover American Gangster (Universal), and speculating about how bad it would go for Tom Cruise’s Lions For Lambs (MGM/UA), nobody was paying much attention to Jeffrey Katzenberg and Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie.
Bee (Dreamworks), the latest flick from the animation house built by Katzenberg, appears to have pulled off a surprise weekend win. Ridley Scott's American Gangster grabbed $7.4 million on Friday compared to Bee's $6.4 million to start the weekend. When the kids hit the multiplexes, however, Jerry Seinfeld's "honey of a movie" should be lifted to an estimated $25.75 million, while Gangster will manage a slightly lower $23.31 million for the three-day.
Although Bee is well off the blistering pace of previous Dreamworks animated hits like the Madagascar, Shark Tale and the Shreks, its projected 10-day gross is on a par with Over the Hedge.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 DOMESTIC GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATED FILMS AFTER 10 DAYS OF RELEASE
1. Shrek the Third — $203.3 million
2. Shrek 2 — $184.8 million
3. Madagascar — $100.3 million
4. Shrek — $99 million
5. Shark Tale — $87.3 million
6. Over the Hedge — $76.1 million
7. Bee Movie — $71.9 million (Estimate)
8. Chicken Run — $41.4 million
9. Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron — $38.7 million
10. Antz — $35.6 million
Meanwhile, Denzel, Russ and Ridley have likely fueled American Gangster to the all-time 12th-best 10-day gross for an R-rated movie:
ALL-TIME TOP 10 DOMESTIC GROSSES FOR R-RATED FILMS AFTER 10 DAYS OF RELEASE
1. The Passion of the Christ — $174.3 million
2. The Matrix Reloaded — $174.1 million
3. 300 — $129.1 million
4. Hannibal — $103.5 million
5. The Matrix Revolutions — $102.7 million
6. Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines — $90.8 million
7. Scary Movie — $89 million
8. American Pie 2 — $87.2 million
9. 8 Mile — $84.4 million
10. Wedding Crashers — $80.3 million
11. Air Force One — $80.1 million
12. American Gangster — $79.6 million (Estimate)
13. Gladiator — $73.6 million
14. Saving Private Ryan — $73.3 million
15. Terminator 2 — $69.6 million
There are few "glad tidings" for Warner Bros. with their holiday release of Fred Claus. Some analysts were forecasting an opening weekend of $30 million or better, but in my Final Weekend Tracking column, it was clear that the poorly-reviewed family film wouldn't hit that orbit (my final prediction was $25.7 million). Fred delivered $5.5 million on its opening day, which will translate to a No. 3 weekend finish and an estimated $20.5 million three-day.
Despite a cast that includes Oscar nominee Paul Giamatti and Oscar winners Kevin Spacey, Kathy Bates and Rachel Weisz, this was Vince Vaughn's movie to open, and it will likely mark only the eighth-best opening of his career:
ALL-TIME TOP 10 VINCE VAUGHN OPENING WEEKENDS
1. The Lost World: Jurassic Park — $72.1 million
2. Mr. & Mrs. Smith — $50.3 million
3. The Break-Up — $39.1 million
4. Wedding Crashers — $33.9 million
5. DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story — $30 million
6. Starsky & Hutch — $28.1 million
7. Be Cool — $23.4 million
8. Fred Claus — $20.5 million (Estimate)
9. The Cell — $17.5 million
10. Old School — $17.4 million
As expected, Lions for Lambs is a disaster for Tom Cruise and producing partner Paula Wagner and the newly-reinvented United Artists. The political thriller has reported production costs of only $35 million, but, as I predicted on Wednesday, it won't make that amount back in domestic box office. The film rode scathing reviews to a $2.3 million Friday, and it'll reach only $7.2 million or so for the weekend, good for only fourth place. If that number holds, it will be only the 17th-best opening of Tom Cruise's career and his second-worst for a film opening on 1,000 or more screens (trailing only 1986's Legend, which managed just $4.2 million on its opening weekend).
On the specialty front, No Country For Old Men (Miramax) from directors Joel and Ethan Coen is an arthouse blockbuster. Opening at 28 locations, the Javier Bardem-Tommy Lee Jones-Josh Brolin thriller generated an estimated $352,000 on Friday for an opening day PTA of $12,539. With spectacular reviews and deafening Oscar buzz, No Country will wrap up the weekend with almost $46,000 per location and a total take of $1.28 million.
Generally, I don't track Bollywood films, but I'm making an exception this weekend for the global releases of Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) and Saawariya (Sony). This is Diwali Hindu New Year weekend, and these are the two most-anticipated Bollywood titles of 2007, both being released on the same day.
Eros claims that Om Shanti Om is the biggest day-and-date international release in Bollywood history with 2,000 locations worldwide, including 114 American locations. Meanwhile Saawariya, the first Bollywood film to be fully funded by a major US studio, debuted Friday at 1,034 locations and 85 in the United States. Om Shanti Om finished No. 11 domestically on its opening day with about $475,000 and a PTA of $4,150 compared to $146,000 and a $1,688 PTA for Saawariya. The Eros release will dance its way to $1.71 million for the weekend and the second-best three-day PTA at $15,000.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. American Gangster (Universal) — $7.4 million, $2,419 PTA [$63.7 million cume]
2. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $6.4 million, $1,623 PTA [$52.6 million cume]
3. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $5.5 million, $1,527 PTA [$5.5 million cume]
4. NEW Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $2.3 million, $1,038 PTA [$2.3 million cume]
5. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $1.81 million, $937 PTA [$26.6 million cume]
6. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $1.56 million, $538 PTA [$54.6 million cume
7. The Game Plan (Disney) — $710,000, $329 PTA [$80.7 million cume]
8. NEW P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $700,000, $328 PTA [$700,000 cume]
9. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $640,000, $377 PTA [$35.8 million cume]
10. Martian Child (New Line) — $545,000, $270 PTA [$4.8 million cume]
11. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $475,000, $4,150 PTA [$475,000 cume]
12. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $455,000, $396 PTA [$34.3 million cume]
13. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $410,000, $428 PTA [$16 million cume]
14. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $405,000, $446 PTA [$52 million cume]
15. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $352,000, $12,539 PTA [$352,000
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $290,000- $492 PTA [$11.7 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $245,000, $421 PTA [$21.7 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $240,000, $622 PTA [$8.7 million cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $238,000, $503 PTA [$72.5 million cume]
* Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $208,000, $754 PTA [$3 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $194,000, $670 PTA [$2.8 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $163,000, $1,336 PTA [$781,503 cume]
* NEW After Dark's Horrorfest (After Dark) — $150,000, $456 PTA [$150,000
* NEW Saawariya (Sony) — $146,000, $1,688 PTA [$146,000
* Lust, Caution (Focus) — $54,000, $486 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $40,000, $308 PTA [$3.4 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $29,000, $191 PTA [$319.1 million cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $25,000, $926 PTA [$479,554 cume]
* NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $12,300, $4,100 PTA [$12,300 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $12,000, $500 PTA [$43,337 cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $8,179, $511 PTA [$42,991 cume]
* NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $990, $990 PTA [$990 cume]
* NEW The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $836, $836 PTA [$836 cume]
* NEW Cocalero (Cinema Tropical) — $741, $741 PTA [$741 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $25.75 million, $6,529 PTA [$71.9 million cume]
2. American Gangster (Universal) — $23.31 million, $7,620 PTA [$79.6 million cume]
3. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $20.5 million, $5,690 PTA [$20.5 million cume]
4. NEW Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $7.2 million, $3,251 PTA [$7.2 million cume]
5. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $5.63 million, $2,904 PTA [$30.4 million cume]
6. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $4.53 million, $1,561 PTA [$57.6 million cume
7. The Game Plan (Disney) — $2.55 million, $1,183 PTA [$82.5 million cume]
8. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $2.02 million, $1,192 PTA [$37.2 million cume]
9. Martian Child (New Line) — $2.01 million, $996 PTA [$6.2 million cume]
10. NEW P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $2 million, $939 PTA [$2 million cume]
11. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $1.71 million, $15,000 PTA [$1.71 million cume]
12. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $1.48 million, $1,294 PTA [$35.4 million cume]
13. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $1.39 million, $1,539 PTA [$53.1 million cume]
14. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $1.36 million, $1,427 PTA [$16.9 million cume]
15. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.28 million, $45,886 PTA [$1.28 million cume]
* Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $965,700- $1,637 PTA [$12.4 million cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $844,900, $1,786 PTA [$73.1 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $808,000, $1,389 PTA [$22.3 million cume]
* Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $780,000, $2,826 PTA [$3.4 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $770,400, $1,996 PTA [$9.2 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $646,020, $2,259 PTA [$3.3 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $599,840, $4,917 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* NEW Saawariya (Sony) — $525,600, $6,184 PTA [$516,528
* NEW After Dark's Horrorfest (After Dark) — $435,000, $1,347 PTA [$435,000 cume]
* Lust, Caution (Focus) — $189,000, $1,703 PTA [$3.6 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $130,000, $1,000 PTA [$3.5 million cume]
* Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $116,000, $763 PTA [$319.1 million cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $86,250, $3,194 PTA [$540,804 cume]
* NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $41,820, $13,940 PTA [$41,820 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $38,400, $1,600 PTA [$69,737 cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $26,990, $1,687 PTA [$61,802 cume]
* NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — $3,465, $3,465 PTA [$3,465 cume]
* NEW The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $2,926, $2,926 PTA [$2,926 cume]
* NEW Cocalero (Cinema Tropical) — $2,445, $2,445 PTA [$2,445 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 28 locations, $12,539 PTA
2. NEW Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $4,150 PTA
3. NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $4,100 PTA
4. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,059 locations, $2,419 PTA
5. NEW Saawariya (Sony) — 85 locations, $1,688 PTA
6. NEW Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,944 locations, $1,623 PTA
7. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — 3,603 locations, $1,527 PTA
8. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 122 locations, $1,336 PTA
9. NEW Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — 2,215 locations, $1,038 PTA
10. NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — 1 location, $990 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 28 locations, $45,886 PTA
2. NEW Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $15,000 PTA
3. NEW War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $13,940 PTA
4. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,059 locations, $7,620 PTA
5. NEW Saawariya (Sony) — 85 locations, $6,184 PTA
6. NEW Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,944 locations, $6,529 PTA
7. NEW Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — 3,603 locations, $5,690 PTA
8. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 122 locations, $4,917 PTA
9. NEW Mr. Blue Sky (Rocky Mountain Pictures) — 1 location, $3,565 PTA
10. NEW Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — 2,215 locations, $3,251 PTA
Steve, Bee Movie will have a better IM than you're projecting. Considering Veterans Day is on Monday, I could see an 80% Saturday increase followed by a small 10% drop on Sunday for 4.5 IM. The weekend gross will be more around $28m.
Fantastic opening for No Country for Old Men, just about where I expected.
Posted by: xiayun | November 10, 2007 at 12:08 AM
maze what are you crazy there is no way that bee movie is gonna win after the 2nd weekend maze why do you think movies after thier 2nd weekend fred claus is gonna win the box office and everybody knows it anyway its too late for bee movie to win after the 2nd weekend here are my predictions
fred claus 33 millon
bee movie 26 millon
amrican gangster 22 millon
Posted by: chris | November 10, 2007 at 06:39 AM
Soft opening for Fred Claus, yes... but it will have legs. As it gets into December, closer to Christmas, it will pick up again a little bit. (I remember this happening with The Polar Express.)
Posted by: dranscht | November 10, 2007 at 12:06 PM
chris, mase is spot on with his 3 day estimates, he is projecting the 3 day estimates from the information he has recieved on the friday box office takes. Fred claus has more chance of winning best picture at the oscars than it does of taking $33 million this weekend after a $5.5 million friday take. Fred claud will finish 3rd for the weekend.
Posted by: AB | November 10, 2007 at 01:30 PM
ab you have to be kidding me if you think mase is right with the 3 day estimates bee movie will finish at no 3 or no 2
you are making the same mistake as mason did fred claus is gonna win no matter what you say
Posted by: chris | November 10, 2007 at 02:10 PM
Does 'chris' work for Warner Bros., perhaps?
Posted by: dranscht | November 10, 2007 at 08:24 PM
I highly doubt it, dranscht... Something tells me that a P.R. flack or marketing-department gnome on the Warner's payroll would be able to spell "Mase" correctly. If I'm wrong, it would a-"maze" [heh] me.
I remain, as always...
Nico.
Posted by: Nicodemus the Perceptive | November 10, 2007 at 08:46 PM
With an estimated take of less than six million the chances of Fred being number one this weekend are incredibly slim. Moms are much more likely to go with the safe choice of Bee Movie and males are much more likely to see American Gangster.
Unfortunately for Fred its plot and its actors give mixed messages about its intended audience and poor reviews dampen chances of cross quadrant box office draw.
Mr. Mason, any chance we could get some updated Beowulf tracking numbers? I'm very interested to see how the standard action crowd is responding to the technology. Thanks and I hope everyone has a great weekend.
Posted by: Scabin | November 10, 2007 at 10:47 PM
Why don't you have wristcutters numbers in your list?
Posted by: sam | November 11, 2007 at 08:01 AM
Hi Sam,
Not tracking WRISTCUTTERS any longer because the numbers are very low. It just didn't expand well.
It has expanded to 54 theatres. It grossed about $19K on Friday ($448 PTA) and $25K on Saturday ($596 PTA). When a film gets deeper into its run, and it just doesn't get any traction, I tend to drop it from my tracking.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | November 11, 2007 at 12:51 PM
Mase, what happened to War/Dance?
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
3. NEW – War/Dance (Thinkfilm) – 3 locations - $4,100 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
3. NEW – War/Dance (Thinkfilm) – 3 locations - $13,940 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
8. NEW – War/Dance (Thinkfilm) – 3 locations - $4,197 PTA
Posted by: Azure | November 11, 2007 at 06:34 PM
Mase, I think it's possible you sleep even less than I. I went to bed at just before 3:00 a.m. PST, and you were still working on your 'Revised 3-Day Estimates' story. Then, not seven hours later, I swear I saw you talking to Chris Wallace about the WGA and theater stagehand strikes. Dude, you're a machine. Tell me you're not drinking eight Venti 8-Pump Mochas a day...
In all seriousness, tho: Props, dude. You're the best.
I remain, as always...
Nico.
Posted by: Nicodemus the Awestruck | November 11, 2007 at 06:50 PM
Hi Azure,
WAR/DANCE fell apart.
I was a bit high on Friday, then business dropped Friday-Saturday byv 50%. Sometimes this happens when a movie is very specialized, and its core audience shows up on opening night.
Thanks for the props Nico. I am a junkie for this stuff.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | November 11, 2007 at 08:55 PM
Anybody heard from "Chris?" I liked his projections on Friday. Way "better" than Steve Mason, wasn't he?
Think Fred Claus will see that $33 million before Thanksgiving?
Posted by: Wes | November 11, 2007 at 09:45 PM
Mase, I was wondering if you could tell me how I'll Believe You did. I was not expecting much from it but it is not even showing up on boxofficemojo's weekend chart and it was released in 30 theaters.
Posted by: Tye Copeland | November 12, 2007 at 06:24 PM
That's odd. Bee Movie might take the weekend, but American Gangster has increased it's box office lead from about 5.5 million to 8.5 million as it appears to have taken more during the week.
Posted by: JK | November 12, 2007 at 07:13 PM