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November 17, 2007

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: War Between CG and MoCap! 'Beowulf' May Top $30M but "Animation Establishment" Rooting Against It; 'Gangster' tops $100M, 'Bee' to Follow Suit; 'Magorium,' Other Newcomers DOA; Baumbach's 'Margot' Huge!

by Steve Mason

SUNDAY MORNING: Normally, I would have written a huge analysis piece last night, but, I only managed to get numbers posted. As of this morning, Box Office Mojo is reporting some Saturday and weekend numbers that are lower than my projections, and it's possible that they're right ... but it's also possible that Dreamworks/Paramount is involved in a bit of gamesmanship.

The bigger the movie, the more likely the actuals will finish higher than the estimates. For example, Dreamworks execs and Shangri-La's Steve Bing (who put up two-thirds of the budget for Beowulf), may be vaguely disappointed by the film's opening weekend. I reported three weeks ago that early tracking pointed toward a possible $50 million opening. Even as of this past Thursday, there were whispers that Shangri-La still held out hope for a weekend number that started with a four.

When this dymanic exists, the numbers-crunchers sometimes under-report in the press on Sunday, then provide good news to nervous studio execs, investors and powerful producers and directors on Monday when they can announce that the actuals have come in higher than the Sunday estimates.

I have Beowulf, the motion-capture animated epic doing $11.5 million-plus on Saturday and just over $30 million for opening weekend while Box Office Mojo and Dreamworks/Paramount have been pushing a softer $10.5 million Saturday and $28.1 million for the three-day. Don't be surprised if the Robert Zemeckis-directed medieval yarn suddenly tops $30 million when grosses become official tomorrow.

In any event, Beowulf has easily won the weekend, and the $150 million-budgeted movie will be one of the top 3 Zemeckis movies of all time:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR ROBERT ZEMECKIS-DIRECTED MOVIES
1. Beowulf — $30 million opening (Estimate)
2. What Lies Beneath — $29.7 million opening
3. Cast Away — $28.8 million opening
4. Back to the Future II — $27.8 million opening
5. Forrest Gump — $24.4 million opening
6. The Polar Express — $23.3 million opening
7. Contact — $20.5 million opening
8. Back to the Future III — $19 million opening
9. Death Becomes Her — $12.1 million opening
10. Who Framed Roger Rabbit — $11.2 million opening

It should be noted that three of those Zemeckis films went on to win the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects — Forrest Gump, Death Becomes Her and Who Framed Roger Rabbit — and that Beowulf is his most impressive visual achievement to date.

One of the forces working against Beowulf from the beginning has been the animation world. The early days of animation featured hand-drawn cels. The painstaking process of hand-drawing each frame of an animated picture was both time-consuming and expensive. Most of the modern animated movies are computer generated or CG, and those "artists" now comprise the bulk of the "animation establishment."

Traditional CG animators loathe motion-capture technology (aka MoCap). It wasn't lost on the CG guys that two of the three nominees for Best Animated Film last year — Monster House and Happy Feet — were MoCap features, and they are invested in the failure of Beowulf. The animation establishment will be pushing for CG offerings like Ratatouille (Disney) and The Simpsons Movie (Fox) and the hand-drawn Persepolis (Sony Classics) to be represented at the upcoming Academy Awards, and they want Beowulf left out in the cold.

Here's a list that shows how MoCap movies have fared on their opening weekends. (Keep in mind, Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings trilogy used MoCap, notably for the character of Gollum, and the title character of Jackson's King Kong was also a MoCap creation.)

ALL-TIME TOP OPENINGS FOR MOVIES FEATURING MOTION-CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY
1. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — $72.6 million opening
2. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers — $62 million opening
3. King Kong — $50.1 million opening
4. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring — $47.2 million opening
5. Happy Feet — $41.5 million opening
6. Beowulf — $30 million opening (Estimate)
7. The Polar Express — $23.3 million opening
8. Monster House — $22.2 million opening
9. Arthur & the Invisibles — $4.2 million opening
10. Sinbad: Beyond Veil of Mists — $6,429 opening

We'll wait for the actuals to see how Beowulf performed "officially." Other weekend highlights:

• American Gangster (Universal) will top $100 million today.
• Bee Movie continues to perform very strongly and will pass $100 million on Tuesday or Wednesday; $150 million-plus now seems likely.
• Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium (Fox) and Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line) both had sickly openings. These are bad movie titles, and, although I know it would be difficult to change the title of a Gabriel Garcia Marquez, it’s hard to sell tickets to the general public with the name of a disease on the movie poster.
• The Coen Brothers potentially have the biggest hit of their careers with No Country For Old Men, which had a spectacular $22,000-plus PTA on just 148 screens this weekend. It'll go much wider on Wednesday.
• Great start for Noah Baumbauch's follow-up to The Squid & the Whale. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) finished the weekend with $42,000-plus per location on two Manhattan screens.
• Both Richard Kelly's Southland Tales (IDP Films) and Brian DePalma's Redacted (Magnolia) are essentially finished. A sub-$2,000 weekend PTA for Southland and a dismal $1,500 or so on even fewer screens for Redacted spell disaster for any wider expansion.
• The box-office results continue to boost the Oscar prospects for Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm), and for actors Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Ethan Hawke and maybe even Albert Finney and Marisa Tomei. The same goes for writer/director Sean Penn, Emile Hirsch and Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage), which has now topped $14 million domestic, and writer Nancy Oliver and Ryan Gosling for Lars & the Real Girl (MGM), now with more than $4 million in US box office.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $11.64 million, $3,692 PTA [$21.34 million cume]
2. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $7.02 million, $1,762 PTA [$90 million cume]
3. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $6.07 million, $1,685 PTA [$33.1 million cume]
4. American Gangster (Universal) — $5.95 million, $1,916 PTA [$97.6 million cume]
5. NEW Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $4.47 million, $1,415 PTA [$7.12 million cume]
6. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $2.01 million, $1,060 PTA [$36 million cume]
7. Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $1.3 million, $587 PTA [$10.8 million cume]
8. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.28 million, $8,659 PTA [$4 million cume]
9. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $1.03 million, $494 PTA [$61.2 million cume
10. NEW Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line) — $725,000, $851 PTA [$1.35 million cume]
11. The Game Plan (Disney) — $645,000, $469 PTA [$87.1 million cume]
12. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $510,000, $734 PTA [$36.9 million cume]
13. Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $435,000, $954 PTA [$4.7 million cume]
14. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $430,000, $470 PTA [$38.9 million cume]
15. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $405,000, $764 PTA [$18.2 million cume]
16. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $402,000, $639 PTA [$54.1 million cume]
17. P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $390,000, $201 PTA [$3.4 million cume]
18. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $385,000- $753 PTA [$13.6 million cume]
19. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $370,000, $3,246 PTA [$2.7 million cume]
20. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $310,000, $1,771 PTA [$2 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $250,000, $539 PTA [$23.1 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $250,000, $877 PTA [$10.1 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $235,000, $963 PTA [$4 million cume]
* Martian Child (New Line) — $200,000, $267 PTA [$7 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $123,000, $1,464 PTA [$3.8 million cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $70,000, $909 PTA [$3.9 million cume]
* Saawariya (Sony) — $65,000, $765 PTA [$759,000 cume]
* NEW Southland Tales (IDP Films) — $50,000, $794 PTA [$87,000 cume]
* NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $33,000, $16,500 PTA [$56,000 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $20,000, $741 PTA [$618,000 cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $10,500, $583 PTA [$73.5 million cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $9,794, $753 PTA [$136,000 cume]
* NEW Redacted (Magnolia) — $8,288, $638 PTA [$14,567 cume]
* War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $4,933, $1,644 PTA [$31,000 cume]
* NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — $3,974, $3,974 PTA [$7,258 cume]
* The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $3,125, $781 PTA [$9,295 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $2,685, $122 PTA [$84,000 cume]
* NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — $2,208, $2,208 PTA [$4,179 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $30.07 million, $9,537 PTA [$30.07 million cume]
2. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $15.4 million, $3,873 PTA [$94.9 million cume]
3. American Gangster (Universal) — $13.64 million, $4,387 PTA [$101.4 million cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $13.13 million, $3,646 PTA [$36.9 million cume]
5. NEW Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $10.17 million, $3,216 PTA [$10.17 million cume]
6. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $4.6 million, $2,423 PTA [$37.1 million cume]
7. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $3.26 million, $22,034 PTA [$5 million cume]
8. Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $2.93 million, $1,323 PTA [$11.6 million cume]
9. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $2.39 million, $1,142 PTA [$61.9 million cume
10. NEW Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line) — $1.82 million, $2,143 PTA [$1.82 million cume]
11. The Game Plan (Disney) — $1.35 million, $988 PTA [$87.5 million cume]
12. Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $1,11 million, $2,438 PTA [$5.1 million cume]
13. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $1.08 million, $1,562 PTA [$37.2 million cume]
14. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $981,600, $1,073 PTA [$39.1 million cume]
15. P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $894,500, $462 PTA [$3.6 million cume]
16. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $889,500- $1,741 PTA [$13.9 million cume]
17. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $882,050, $1,664 PTA [$18.4 million cume]
18. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $867,500, $7,610 PTA [$3 million cume]
19. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $842,120, $1,339 PTA [$54.4 million cume]
20. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $702,000, $4,011 PTA [$2.2 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $600,000, $1,293 PTA [$23.3 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $567,500, $1,991 PTA [$10.2 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $544,800, $2,233 PTA [$4.1 million cume]
* Martian Child (New Line) — $466,000, $623 PTA [$7.1 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $314,100, $3,739 PTA [$3.9 million cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $160,700, $2,087 PTA [$4 million cume]
* Saawariya (Sony) — $151,450, $1,782 PTA [$807,000 cume]
* NEW Southland Tales (IDP Films) — $120,500, $1,913 PTA [$120,500 cume]
* NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $84,050, $42,025 PTA [$84,050 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $47,578, $1,762 PTA [$633,000 cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $23,434, $1,302 PTA [$73.5 million cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $22,280- $1,714 PTA [$142,000 cume]
* NEW Redacted (Magnolia) — $19,955, $1,535 PTA [$19,955 cume]
* War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $12,981, $4,327 PTA [$34,169 cume]
* NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — $10,039, $10,039 PTA [$10,039 cume]
* The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $7,098, $1,744 PTA [$11,327 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $7,050, $320 PTA [$85,164 cume]
* NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — $5,613, $5,613 PTA [$5,613 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 2 locations, $16,500 PTA
2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 148 locations, $8,659 PTA
3. NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — 1 location, $3,974 PTA
4. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,153 locations, $3,692 PTA
5. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $3,246 PTA
6. NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — 1 location, $2,028 PTA
7. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,110 locations, $1,916 PTA
8. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 175 locations, $1,771 PTA
9. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,984 locations, $1,762 PTA
10. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.)
— 3,603 locations, $1,685 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 2 locations, $42,025 PTA
2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 148 locations, $22,934 PTA
3. NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — 1 location, $10,039 PT
4. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,153 locations, $9,537 PTA
5. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $7,610 PTA
6. NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — 1 location, $5,613 PTA
7. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,110 locations, $4,387 PTA
8. War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $4,327 PTA
9. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 175 locations, $4,011 PTA
10. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,984 locations, $3,873 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: The $150 million-budgeted 3D spectacle Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) has opened respectably, but its place in film history won't be determined by box office alone. The motion-capture epic from Robert Zemeckis generated an estimated $10.4 million on its opening day, and it will likely top out a tick over $30 million for the weekend. Two-thirds of the budget was provided by political activist Steve Bing's Shangri-La Entertainment, so it's a low-risk proposition for Dreamworks/Paramount and Warner Bros., which owns international distribution rights. With the lucrative Thanksgiving holiday next week, if there is positive word-of-mouth, it's likely that Beowulf will hit $75 million domestic in its first 10 days. Even if the film doesn't ultimately make back its budget in U.S. box office, its $450 million international break-even should be easily attainable.

Maybe more importantly, Beowulf is likely the future of the film business ... or at least a significant part of the future. A surprising number of America's multiplexes raced to install digital projection and 3D systems from either Dolby or Real D in the last few months. When the dust had settled and Beowulf finally premiered to sneak audiences Thursday night, 600-plus traditional theater locations offered at least one screen in 3D and another 120 or so IMAX locations were in 3D. Anyone who sees the presentation in all three of its possible dimensions will agree that the movie business is headed in Beowulf's direction.

In January, National Geographic will release U2 3D, a concert documentary that follows Bono and the legendary rock band on its 2006 Vertigo Tour. Also next year, a 3D version of the classic Journey to the Center of the Earth (New Line) will hit theatrers. In 2009, Dreamworks Animation will release Monsters vs. Aliens, and Jeffrey Katzenberg has announced that all future Dreamworks animated films will be in 3D. James Cameron's Avatar (20th Century Fox) is also due in '09. By 2010, there will be 10-20 big budget 3D films in wide release.

American Gangster (Universal) and Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) were No. 2 and No. 3 on Friday, but Seinfeld's animated flick should slip past the R-rated flick on the weekend with a likely $13.5 million compared to $12.9 million for Ridley Scott's action blockbuster. Denzel, Russ and Ridley will pass $100 million domestic sometime on Sunday, and Bee Movie will have banked  about $93 million by Monday morning.

Holdover Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) and 20th Century Fox's poorly-received Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium will battle for No. 4. I'm estimating that Fred has grabbed $3.14 million on Friday, which should translate to a likely $10.37 million. Meanwhile, Magorium appears to have finished just under $3.1 million on its opening day, and will probably just clear $10 million for the weekend.

The other wide release is Mike Newell's adaptation of the Gabriel Garcia Marquez novel Love in the Time of Cholera, which appears to be another in a long line of New Line misses. Despite Oscar nominee Javier Bardem in the lead role, Cholera managed only $580,000 on its opening day, and it's headed for a 10th-place finish with $1.85 million or so.

Bardem's other film, the spectacularly-reviewed No Country for Old Men (Miramax) from the Coen Brothers, is a sensation. Despite expanding to only 148 screens, the movie finished No. 8 on Friday with $750,000, a $5,068 PTA. For the weekend, No Country will surpass $2.8 million for the second-best PTA of the three-day at just over $19,000.

Noah Baumbach's Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage), starring Nicole Kidman and Jack Black, premiered on two screens on Friday, and it is an arthouse blockbuster with $13,647 per location. The black comedy's weekend PTA will likely reach $50,000, setting up a Thanksgiving expansion.

IDP Films and Magnolia have met with far less success for their new specialty releases. Richard Kelly has followed up the cult classic Donnie Darko with Southland Tales, and it'll manage only a $2,233 weekend PTA at its 63 locations. Brian DePalma's controversial Redacted will deliver an even softer $1,666 on just 13 screens.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $10.4 million, $3,300 PTA [$10.4 million cume]
2. American Gangster (Universal) — $3.8 million, $1,222 PTA [$91.5 million cume]
3. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $3.43 million, $862 PTA [$82.9 million cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $3.14 million, $873 PTA [$26.9 million cume]
5. NEW Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $3.08 million, $975 PTA [$3.08 million cume]
6. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $1.4 million, $738 PTA [$33.9 million cume]
7. Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $800,000, $361 PTA [$9.4 million cume]
8. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $750,000, $5,068 PTA [$2.5M
9. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $745,000, $355 PTA [$60.2 million cume
10. NEW Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line) — $580,000, $675 PTA [$580,000 cume]
11. The Game Plan (Disney) — $330,000, $240 PTA [$86.5 million cume]
12. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $290,000, $317 PTA [$38.4 million cume]
13. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $285,000, $410 PTA [$36.4 million cume]
14. Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $265,000, $581 PTA [$4.3 million cume]
15. P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $250,000, $129 PTA [$3 million cume]
16. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $235,000, $374 PTA [$53.8 million cume]
17. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $225,000, $425 PTA [$17.8 million cume]
18. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $215,000- $421 PTA [$13.2 million cume]
19. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $210,000, $1,842 PTA [$1.5 million cume]
20. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $175,000, $1,000 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $170,000, $366 PTA [$22.9 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $148,000, $607 PTA [$3.7 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $146,000, $512 PTA [$9.8 million cume]
* Martian Child (New Line) — $130,000, $174 PTA [$6.8 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $105,000, $1,250 PTA [$3.7 million cume]
* NEW Southland Tales (IDP Films) — $42,000, $664 PTA [$42,000 cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $41,000, $532 PTA [$3.9 million cume]
* Saawariya (Sony) — $39,000, $459 PTA [$693,000 cume]
* NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $27,294, $13,647 PTA [$27,294 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $11,978, $444 PTA [$597,000 cume]
* NEW Redacted (Magnolia) — $6,279, $483 PTA [$6,279 cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $5,629, $433 PTA [$125,700 cume]
* War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $4,743, $1,581 PTA [$25,900 cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $4,534, $252 PTA [$73.4 million cume]
* NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — $3,284, $3,284 PTA [$3,284 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $2,486, $113 PTA [$80,600 cume]
* NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — $1,971, $1,971 PTA [$1,971 cume]
* The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $1,941, $485 PTA [$6,170 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $30.17 million, $9,570 PTA [$30.17 million cume]
2. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $13.5 million, $3,389 PTA [$93 million cume]
3. American Gangster (Universal) — $12.9 million, $4,148 PTA [$100.6 million cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $10.37 million, $2,880 PTA [$34.1 million cume]
5. NEW Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $10.02 million, $3,169 PTA [$10.02 million cume]
6. Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $4.56 million, $2,400 PTA [$37.1 million cume]
7. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $2.81 million, $19,003 PTA [$4.64M
8. Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $2.56 million, $1,155 PTA [$11.2 million cume]
9. Saw IV (Lionsgate) — $2.34 million, $1,119 PTA [$61.8 million cume
10. NEW Love in the Time of Cholera (New Line) — $1.85 million, $2,178 PTA [$1.85 million cume]
11. The Game Plan (Disney) — $1.18 million, $865 PTA [$87.3 million cume]
12. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) — $1.04 million, $1,497 PTA [$37.1 million cume]
13. Bella (Roadside Attractions) — $993,750, $2,179 PTA [$5 million cume]
14. 30 Days of Night (Sony) — $942,500, $1,030 PTA [$39.1 million cume]
15. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) — $846,000, $1,345 PTA [$54.4 million cume]
16. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) — $810,000, $1,528 PTA [$18.4 million cume]
17. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — $766,500, $6,724 PTA [$2 million cume]
18. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) — $731,000- $1,431 PTA [$13.7 million cume]
19. P2 (Summit Entertainment) — $725,000, $374 PTA [$3.4 million cume]
20. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $673,750, $3,850 PTA [$2.1 million cume]
* Across the Universe (Sony) — $561,000, $1,209 PTA [$23.3 million cume]
* Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) — $503,200, $2,062 PTA [$4.1 million cume]
* Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) — $474,500, $1,665 PTA [$10.1 million cume]
* Martian Child (New Line) — $448,500, $600 PTA [$7.1 million cume]
* The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — $341,250, $4,063 PTA [$3.9 million cume]
* Lust Caution (Focus) — $143,500, $1,864 PTA [$4 million cume]
* NEW Southland Tales (IDP Films) — $140,700, $2,233 PTA [$140,700 cume]
* Saawariya (Sony) — $140,400, $1,652 PTA [$795,000 cume]
* NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $105,082, $52,541 PTA [$105,082 cume]
* Control (MGM/Weinstein) — $41,326, $1,531 PTA [$627,000 cume]
* NEW Redacted (Magnolia) — $21,663, $1,666 PTA [$21,663 cume]
* Joe Strummer: The Future is Unwritten (IFC Films) — $18,294, $1,407 PTA [$139,000 cume]
* War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — $14,230, $4,743 PTA [$35,418 cume]
* Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas (Disney) — $14,964, $831 PTA [$73.5 million cume]
* NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — $9,852, $9,852 PTA [$9,852 cume]
* Darfur Now (Warner Independent) — $7,955, $362 PTA [$86,000 cume]
* NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — $6,800, $6,800 PTA [$6,800 cume]
* The Life of Reilly (Reel Diva Consultants) — $6,503, $1,626 PTA [$10,732 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 2 locations, $13,647 PTA
2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 148 locations, $5,068 PTA
3. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,153 locations, $3,300 PTA
4. NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — 1 location, $3,284 PTA
5. NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — 1 location, $1,971 PTA
6. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $1,842 PTA
7. War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $1,581 PTA
8. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 84 locations, $1,250 PTA
9. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,110 locations, $1,222 PTA
10. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 175 locations, $1,000 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 2 locations, $52,541 PTA
2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 148 locations, $19,003 PTA
3. NEW What Would Jesus Buy? (Independent) — 1 location, $9,852 PTA
4. NEW Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — 3,153 locations, $9,570 PTA
5. NEW Smiley Face (First Look) — 1 location, $6,800 PTA
6. Om Shanti Om (Eros Entertainment) — 114 locations, $6,724 PTA
7. War/Dance (Thinkfilm) — 3 locations, $4,743 PTA
8. American Gangster (Universal) — 3,110 locations, $4,148 PTA
9. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) — 84 locations, $4,063 PTA
10. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 175 locations, $3,850 PTA

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Posted at 12:40 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

AB

mase, what do you think of southland tales $42,000 friday Good or bad?

Posted by: AB | November 17, 2007 at 01:20 AM

ashkul

hey mase, i have a request on my behalf (and i suspect on behalf of a lot of others as well)....

could you do a special column the week before 'Compass' releases, just comparing 'Compass' and 'Legend'?? kind of like a transformers vs. HP5 or a shrek vs spidey vs pirates 3....just so we know which one's tracking more positively....

thanks a lot

Posted by: ashkul | November 17, 2007 at 09:26 AM

ashkul

PS>> i also wanted to know where i can get a hold of the tracking for movies before their opening weekend....basically, where do a lot of you guys find all the tracking info that you use in your columns??

(think i'm addicted to FM now....)

Posted by: ashkul | November 17, 2007 at 09:27 AM

One of the Jona's brothers

I don't think Beowulf is gonna hold. Hitman and Awake my slash the box office pretty fast for them.

Posted by: One of the Jona's brothers | November 17, 2007 at 11:02 AM

numbersix_99

I think Beowulf is going to expand a good bit next weekend, so it won't drop significantly, 30% at the most.

I think next week will be a battle between Enchanted and Beowulf. Hitman only has a theatre count of 2200, which will ensure it will disappoint. And Awake is opening the following week in even fewer theatres, and will only scrape into the Top 5.

Posted by: numbersix_99 | November 17, 2007 at 12:39 PM

dranscht

Wow, Jesse James sneaking back into the PTA top 10 there... weird!

Posted by: dranscht | November 17, 2007 at 02:22 PM

ashkul

good point, i noticed that too dranscht!!!! i thought my eyes were playing tricks on me, but apparently, JJ still might have some juice....come on Jesse!!!! :D

Posted by: ashkul | November 17, 2007 at 03:04 PM

Steve Mason

Hey all,

I am working on some advanced tracking for COMPASS, LEGEND, etc. even as we speak.

The raw tracking data is not available to the public. It gets "leaked" to me regularly.

The JESSE JAMES effect is interesting. It dropped a lot of screens this week (down to 84), and they're the locations where the picture is really working and/or brand new locations.

Bad news for SOUTHLAND TALES. Just too out there. I dont think it will expand well.

I do think the BEOWULF will hold strongly and could be at $75M by next Sunday.

ENCHANTED has hit potential. Reviews are excellent. HITMAN will chase after the same Under 25 Male audience that BEOWULF is seeking, so the question is, "Will PG13 BEOWULF be able to expand its appeal with women and, to a lesser degree, families?" Will Mom and Dad take the family to see BEOWULF after Thanksgiving day based on the 3D glasses and the PG13 rating?

Mase

Posted by: Steve Mason | November 18, 2007 at 01:57 PM

Rob

Hey what about Hulk in the motion capture openings. Ang Lee used himself as the primary motion capture subject for Hulk,who had about as big a role as Golumn in the Lord of the Rings films. Thus, Hulk would come in as the no. 2 film on the list.

Posted by: Rob | November 18, 2007 at 05:25 PM

ashkul

thanks mase....

Posted by: ashkul | November 19, 2007 at 06:27 AM

Ticked About BEOWULF

Yo, Mase: What the hell happened to that $50 million-plus opening weekend projection on BEOWULF? How did the tracking go from "sky's the limit" to barely topping $30 million in just three weeks? And WHY, oh WHY did you not do a Friday tracking piece to let us know about the DRAMATIC REVERSAL in the movie's tracking? Now my two studios with BEOWULF on the roster are completely screwed.

Posted by: Ticked About BEOWULF | November 19, 2007 at 08:39 AM

Curious Ted

Mase: I didn't actually put BEOWULF on any of my slates, but I'd kind of like to know about the $50 million-plus projection from early tracking, too. The bottom must have completely dropped out of its tracking. And, hey, as a distributor, did you put 3D in either of your theaters? Or are you still foot-dragging on that one? :-)

Posted by: Curious Ted | November 19, 2007 at 08:47 AM

annyonggob888

Guys, don't always rely on Mase. He was spot on for American Gangster, but he's not always on the money. Like someone else said, it's only tracking, which analyses the marketing for the film mainly (I think). The thing I want to know, is why the actuals actually came out LOWER than the estimates. I actually thought Mase was on to something saying the estimates held back a little. Seems the opposite it seems...

Posted by: annyonggob888 | November 19, 2007 at 05:52 PM

Rob

I'm a commish in a box office/Oscar league that I run off-site. Like ashkul, I'm wondering where to find tracking numbers. Is there a good website for this?

Posted by: Rob | November 20, 2007 at 06:38 AM

seb

First of if you my friend aren't an animator don't make comments about an animator icon//legend about animation i know that everyone was dissapointed because beowulf did not raise to the expected standards. Secondly please stop saying that mocap is better than keyframe and viceversa because they both go hand in hand and actually a mocap takes longer than a keyframe animation in order for it to be implemented in a game or a movie why u would ask well it's simple one has the mocap artist or the mocap studio and so on plus one needs to clean the data get it in the right position and so on the debate can go on for ages but one thingy is for certain if an animator does not know keyframe anim he will find it quite difficult to adapt to mocap and if a mocap editor knows only mocap than ur f@@ed . Get the company who advertised beowulf as a movie not an animation movie because beowulf was adrvertised as a "normal" movie not an anim one. all in all get ur facts togheter dude

Posted by: seb | August 08, 2008 at 07:10 PM

seb

Ur debate about mocap earnings is wrong from the begining learn a few things and then start the talk mate lotr wasn't just mocap people went to c lotr because of the screenplay/ evrything else want a fuly mocap movie that people went on to c try matrix think about it ike this if u go to c a movie for the mocaps it uses then u'd btter buy urself a ds or psp cause nowadays one can c plenty of them mocaps on this tiny wee cconsoles don't judge movies by mocaps mates

Posted by: seb | August 08, 2008 at 07:21 PM

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