WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Enchanted' Headed for $17.1M Weekend; 'Beowulf' Likely No. 2 w/$8.3M; 'Christmas' No. 3 w/$8.1M; 'Savages' Tops in PTA; 'Diving Bell' Close Behind!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY NIGHT: The weekend after Thanksgiving is always one of the more sluggish three-day periods of the calendar year, and 2007 is no exception. Disney's Enchanted got a solid 51 percent Saturday bounce, but, even so, it will only manage a weekend take of about $17.1 million. Since opening on the Wednesday prior to "turkey day," the family film featuring likely Oscar nominee Amy Adams has grabbed an estimated $65 million-plus, but the new numbers are still a 50 percent drop from opening weekend. In the final analysis, Enchanted suffered virtually the same decline that struck Happy Feet on the same weekend last year, so Disney is probably quite satisfied. Their animation-live action mix should have great "legs" during the lucrative holiday moviegoing period, and awards buzz can only help to broaden the film's audience.
It appears that Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount), the Robert Zemeckis-directed Digital 3D/motion capture animation epic, will finish second for the weekend, despite trailing Sony holdover This Christmas on Saturday. Surprise moneymaker Christmas, which features an all-African-American cast, got a huge 61 percent Saturday bump, and it grabbed an estimated $3.86 million to Beowulf's $3.48 million. Sunday, however, should tilt toward the Dreamworks Digital 3D and IMAX 3D spectacle, knocking This Christmas into third place for the three-day.
The only new wide release this weekend was Awake (MGM), a medical thriller starring Jessica Alba and Hayden Christensen not screened for critics. It was virtually flat Friday-to-Saturday, and it'll miss the weekend Top 5 altogether with a meager $5.61 million.
The news was much better for two major specialty releases beginning platform runs. The Savages (Fox Searchlight) will win the weekend PTA battle, but it showed considerably less staying power than Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) on Saturday.
Despite solid reviews and a cast that includes Oscar winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Oscar nominee Laura Linney and veteran character actor Phillip Bosco, The Savages was down 4 percent on Saturday at its four locations. It will likely finish the three-day with a PTA of $30,000 or so, which is much lower than the projection I generated Friday night. Meanwhile, Diving Bell rode spectacular reviews to a 41 percent Saturday surge on three screens, and the French language film that was recognized at the Cannes Film Festival will likely finish the weekend with a PTA in the $25,000 range.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Enchanted (Disney) — $7.39 million, $1,984 PTA [$65.8 million cume]
2. This Christmas (Sony) — $3.81 million, $2,054 PTA [$34.7 million cume]
3. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.56 million, $1,097 PTA [$66.7 million cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $2.5 million, $732 PTA [$58.3 million cume]
5. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $2.36 million, $960 PTA [$28.6 million cume]
6. NEW Awake (MGM) — $2.26 million, $1,134 PTA [$4.49 million cume]
7. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $2.16 million, $937 PTA [$19.1 million cume]
8. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.1 million, $668 PTA [$116.3 million cume]
9. American Gangster (Universal) — $1.86 million, $692 PTA [$120.6 million cume]
10. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.77 million, $1,786 PTA [$21.7M
11. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.69 million, $698 PTA [$18 million cume]
12. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $1.55 million, $545 PTA [$25.5 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $315,000, $1,043 PTA [$4.2M
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $205,000, $1,486 PTA [$1.5M
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $80,000, $2,286 PTA [$796,000 cume]
* NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $43,000, $10,750 PTA [$87,000 cume]
* NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $30,000, $10,000 PTA [$51,336 cume]
* Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $21,000, $2,333 PTA [$250,000 cume]
* Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — $20,000, $2,500 PTA [$135,000 cume]
* What Would Jesus Buy (Independent) — $7,066, $505 PTA [$66,000 cume]
* NEW Christmas in Wonderland (Yari Film Group) — $6,964, $3,482 PTA [$13,020 cume]
* NEW Protagonist (IFC Films) — $2,063, $2,063 PTA [$3,638 cume]
* NEW Sex & Breakfast (Independent) — $883, $883 PTA [$2,986 cume]
* NEW The Rocket (Palm) — $222, $222 PTA [$359 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Enchanted (Disney) — $17.1 million, $4,587 PTA [$70.7 million cume]
2. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $8.39 million, $2,583 PTA [$69.1 million cume]
3. This Christmas (Sony) — $8.1 million, $4,360 PTA [$36.5 million cume]
4. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $5.81 million, $2,357 PTA [$30.2 million cume]
5. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $5.73 million, $1,622 PTA [$60 million cume]
6. NEW Awake (MGM) — $5.61 million, $2,806 PTA [$5.61 million cume]
7. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $5.45 million, $2,362 PTA [$20.6 million cume]
8. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $4.46 million, $1,418 PTA [$117.6 million cume]
9. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $4.43 million, $4,452 PTA [$22.9M
10. American Gangster (Universal) — $4.36 million, $1,616 PTA [$121.8 million cume]
11. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $4.08 million, $1,684 PTA [$19 million cume]
12. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $3.44 million, $1,205 PTA [$26.5 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $750,500, $2,485 PTA [$4.4M
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $483,250, $3,502 PTA [$1.7M
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $192,020, $5,486 PTA [$852,000 cume]
* NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $121,256, $30,314 PTA [$121,256 cume]
* NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $75,336, $25,112 PTA [$75,336 cume]
* Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $47,951, $5,328 PTA [$263,000 cume]
* Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — $46,333, $5,792 PTA [$149,000 cume]
* What Would Jesus Buy (Independent) — $19,690, $1,406 PTA [$71,000 cume]
* NEW Christmas in Wonderland (Yari Film Group) — $17,547, $8,774 PTA [$17,547 cume]
* NEW Protagonist (IFC Films) — $5,041, $5,041 PTA [$5,041 cume]
* NEW Sex & Breakfast (Independent) — $3,560, $3,560 PTA [$3,560 cume]
* NEW The Rocket (Palm) — $503, $503 PTA [$503 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 4 locations, $10,750 PTA
2. NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $10,000 PTA
3. NEW Christmas in Wonderland (Yari Film Group) — 2 locations, $3,482 PTA
4. Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — 8 locations, $2,500 PTA
5. Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — 9 locations, $2,333 PTA
6. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 35 locations, $2,286 PTA
7. NEW Protagonist (IFC Films) — 1 location, $2,063 PTA
8. This Christmas (Sony) — 1,858 locations, $2,028 PTA
9. Enchanted (Disney) — 3,730 locations, $1,984 PTA
10. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 995 locations, $1,340 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 4 locations, $30,314 PTA
2. NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $25,112 PTA
3. NEW Christmas in Wonderland (Yari Film Group) — 2 locations, $8,774 PTA
4. Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — 8 locations, $5,792 PTA
5. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 35 locations, $5,486 PTA
6. Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — 9 locations, $5,328 PTA
7. NEW Protagonist (IFC Films) — 1 location, $5,041 PTA
8. Enchanted (Disney) — 3,730 locations, $4,587 PTA
9. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 995 locations, $4,452 PTA
10. This Christmas (Sony) — 1,858 locations, $4,360 PTA
FRIDAY NIGHT: Disney's Enchanted, starring near-certain Golden Globe and Oscar nominee Amy Adams, continued its royal box office run adding another $4.9 million on Friday, and the well-reviewed family film will manage a solid hold on its second weekend. The "princess-out-of-water" animation-live action hybrid is on target for an estimated $17.6 million for the weekend, representing a 49 percent drop from its Black Friday-boosted opening weekend.
The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a rough three-day for the movie business, and 2007 is no exception. The Top 12 movies are on track for just over $78 million, down 4 percent from the same weekend last year, when the Top 3 movies were Happy Feet, Casino Royale and Déjà Vu. Overall, this year's post-Thanksgiving weekend haul will likely be the sixth-best in the past 10 years and slightly above the $77.1 million 10-year rolling average for the first weekend in December.
Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount), the Robert Zemeckis-directed Digital 3D motion capture animation epic, is holding well with $2.7 million on Friday, which should translate to an $8.37 million weekend. By Monday morning, Beowulf will have racked up just under $70 million domestic, and much of the success can be attributed to the 600-plus Digital 3D and IMAX 3D locations. As much as 60 percent of this weekend's gross will have been generated by the 3D component of the project.
The surprise hit This Christmas (Sony) is third for the day with $2.4 million and will finish in the same spot for the weekend with $7.8 million, with Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) and Hitman (Fox) rounding out the Top 5. The new medical thriller Awake (MGM), starring Jessica Alba and Hayden Christensen, managed to dredge up $2 million on its first day of business, good for a fourth-place finish. It wasn't screened for critics, for good reason, and it will be very front-loaded. Awake could finish as low as No. 7 for the weekend with but it could conceivably outpace August Rush (Warner Bros.) for sixth.
Three new specialty films are at the top of the Per Theatre Average leaderboard. The Savages (Fox Searchlight), which opened at four locations on Wednesday, grabbed just under $11,000 per on Friday, and it will coast to a probable three-day PTA of just under $40,000. Writer/director Tamara Jenkins seems like a solid bet for an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay and perennial favorite Laura Linney is an odds-on contender in the Best Actress category. Phillip Bosco should not be overlooked for his performance as an irascible Alzheimer's patient in the Best Supporting Actor category, but in my estimation Phillip Seymour Hoffman has a better Best Actor shot with his role in Sydney Lumet's Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead.
Good news for Julian Schnabel's The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) with a weekend PTA of $26,000 or so. The Cannes Film Festival winner will be helped by specialty box office success to go along with all of those rave reviews. Diving Bell is a possible Oscar nominee for Best Picture, Best Director (Schnabel), Best Actor (Mathieu Amalric), Best Supporting Actor (Max Von Sydow) and Best Adapted Screenplay (Ronald Harwood). Meanwhile, the poorly-reviewed Sex & Breakfast, which is being independently distributed, fared well on its first day at the Sunset 5 in West Hollywood. With a cast that includes Macauley Culkin and Eliza Dushku, the Miles Brandman-written and directed ensemble relationship comedy managed just over $2,100 on Friday, and it has a shot at a weekend in the $7,000 range.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Enchanted (Disney) — $4.9 million, $1,314 PTA [$58.4 million cume]
2. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.7 million, $831 PTA [$63.4 million cume]
3. This Christmas (Sony) — $2.4 million, $1,292 PTA [$30.8 million cume]
4. NEW Awake (MGM) — $2 million, $999 PTA [$2 million cume]
5. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $1.9 million, $770 PTA [$26.3 million cume]
6. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $1.69 million, $735 PTA [$16.9 million cume]
7. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $1.65 million, $482 PTA [$55.9 million cume]
8. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.33 million, $1,340 PTA [$19.8M
8. American Gangster (Universal) — $1.33 million, $493 PTA [$118.7 million cume]
10. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $1.25 million, $517 PTA [$16.2 million cume]
11. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $1.24 million, $437 PTA [$24.3 million cume]
11. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $1.15 million, $365 PTA [$114.3 million cume]
* Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $535,000, $355 PTA [$43.2 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — $225,000, $745 PTA [$3.9M
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $133,000, $964 PTA [$1.3M
* Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $125,000, $152 PTA [$14.2 million cume]
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $58,956, $1,684 PTA [$719,000 cume]
* NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $43,600, $10,900 PTA [$76,000 cume]
* NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $21,123, $7,041 PTA [$21,123 cume]
* Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $10,377, $1,153 PTA [$225,500 cume]
* Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — $9,360, $1,170 PTA [$112,000 cume]
* What Would Jesus Buy (Independent) — $5,990, $599 PTA [$57,000 cume]
* NEW Sex & Breakfast (Independent) — $2,103, $2,103 PTA [$2,103 cume]
* NEW The Rocket (Palm) — $137, $137 PTA [$137 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Enchanted (Disney) — $17.6 million, $4,718 PTA [$71.1 million cume]
2. Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $8.37 million, $2,576 PTA [$69.1 million cume]
3. This Christmas (Sony) — $7.8 million, $4,198 PTA [$36.2 million cume]
4. Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) — $6.6 million, $1,930 PTA [$60.8 million cume]
5. Hitman (20th Century Fox) — $5.9 million, $2,391 PTA [$30.3 million cume]
6. August Rush (Warner Bros.) — $5.6 million, $2,426 PTA [$20.8 million cume]
7. NEW Awake (MGM) — $5.5 million, $2,747 PTA [$5.5 million cume]
8. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $4.79 million, $4,823 PTA [$23.3M
9. American Gangster (Universal) — $4.25 million, $1,578 PTA [$121.7 million cume]
10. Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $4.02 million, $1,278 PTA [$117.1 million cume]
11. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (20th Century Fox) — $3.99 million, $1,398 PTA [$27 million cume]
12. The Mist (MGM/Weinstein) — $3.69 million, $1,524 PTA [$18.7 million cume]
* Dan in Real Life (Disney) — $1.73 million, $1,155 PTA [$44.4 million cume]
* Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) — 825,000, $2,732 PTA [$4.5M
* I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — $440,000, $3,188 PTA [$1.6M
* Lions for Lambs (MGM/UA) — $410,000, $497 PTA [$14.5 million cume]
* Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — $222,000, $6,343 PTA [$882,000 cume]
* NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $159,000, $39,750 PTA [$192,000 cume]
* NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — $78,000, $26,000 PTA [$78,000 cume]
* Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — $36,000, $4,000 PTA [$251,000 cume]
* Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — $35,000- $4,375 PTA [$138,000 cume]
* What Would Jesus Buy (Independent) — $20,000, $2,000 PTA [$71,000 cume]
* NEW Sex & Breakfast (Independent) — $7,045, $7,045 PTA [$7,045 cume]
* NEW The Rocket (Palm) — $500, $500 PTA [$500 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 4 locations, $10,900 PTA
2. NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $7,041 PTA
3. NEW Sex & Breakfast (Independent) — 1 location, $2,103 PTA
4. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 35 locations, $1,684 PTA
5. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 995 locations, $1,340 PTA
6. Enchanted (Disney) — 3,730 locations, $1,314 PTA
7. This Christmas (Sony) — 1,858 locations, $1,292 PTA
8. Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — 8 locations, $1,170 PTA
9. Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — 9 locations, $1,153 PTA
10. NEW Awake (MGM) — 2,002 locations, $999 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — 4 locations, $39,750 PTA
2. NEW The Diving Bell & the Butterfly (Miramax) — 3 locations, $26,000 PTA
3. NEW Sex & Breakfast (Independent) — 1 location, $7,045 PTA
4. Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage) — 35 locations, $6,343 PTA
5. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — 995 locations, $4,823 PTA
6. Enchanted (Disney) — 3,730 locations, $4,718 PTA
7. Starting Out in the Evening (Roadside Attractions) — 8 locations, $4,375 PTA
8. This Christmas (Sony) — 1,858 locations, $4,198 PTA
9. Romance & Cigarettes (Independent) — 9 locations, $4,000 PTA
10. I'm Not There (MGM/Weinstein) — 138 locations, $3,188 PTA
Any word of Mama's Boy. It's playing in several theaters throughout the San Antonio area. Is this maybe just a test market?
Posted by: leo | December 01, 2007 at 09:07 AM
MAMA'S BOY is definitely a test market situation. Warner Bros also did this with JESSE JAMES, which, very quietly, played in Austin, TX simultaneously with NYC, Toronto and LA, but never reported grosses.
My sense is that WB doesn't know what to do with this movie. It was originally with Warner Independent, but it's now with the commercial division.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | December 01, 2007 at 09:37 AM
Mase,
How is Golden Compass tracking? I'm sure Legend is going to be bigger but I haven't heard much at all these last couple of weeks.
Posted by: aadams | December 03, 2007 at 12:20 PM
Anyone catch Lions for Lambs PTA this weekend? What is that all about? Is this an error?
Posted by: aadams | December 04, 2007 at 06:52 AM
Anyone catch Lions for Lambs PTA this weekend? What is that all about? Is this an error?
Posted by: aadams | December 04, 2007 at 06:52 AM