Christmas is coming early for America's exhibitors and for Universal and Dreamworks/Paramount. My October 24 speculation that both American Gangster (Universal) and Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) would open to $40 million-plus appears to be on the mark. It's an easy call for American Gangster, which I'll detail later, but it's a bit more of an uphill climb for the once seemingly-unstoppable Jerry Seinfeld comedy from Dreamworks.

Industry tracking for Bee Movie is "solid but unspectacular," which matches the lukewarm response the film is getting from critics. Rotten Tomatoes puts Bee Movie at 51 percent Fresh and MetaCritic checks with a score or 53. Tracking indicates it will "open", but it I suspect that this movie's legs will carry it to a smaller "honey pot" than the $175 million-$200 million that Dreamworks might be hoping for. With 11 percent Un-Aided Awareness, Bee Movie has more "buzz" than last year's Flushed Away, which opened at just 8 percent, but well less than half of the 29 percent measured for last November's animated hit Happy Feet. Bee Movie has an 80 percent Total Aware, in the ballpark with Happy Feet's 87 percent and well-ahead of Flushed Away's 65 percent Awareness on opening day, and Seinfeld's animated pic is even more on par with Happy Feet in terms of Definite Interest. The singing penguins had 38 percent Definite Interest compared to 36 percent for Bee (Flushed Away was well-behind at 28 percent).

In the all-important First Choice column, Bee Movie actually comes out the winner:

FIRST CHOICE
Bee Movie — 14 percent (Males Under 25, 9 percent; Males 25 Plus, 9 percent; Females Under 25, 13 percent; Females 25 Plus, 24 percent)
Happy Feet — 11 percent (Males Under 25, 3 percent; Males 25 Plus, 6 percent; Females Under 25, 22 percent; Females 25 Plus, 12 percent)
Flushed Away — 9 percent (Males Under 25, 5 percent; Males 25 Plus, 12 percent; Females Under 25, 10 percent; Females 25 Plus, 11 percent)

Bee Movie seems the most acceptable of the three films among Males, and Moms definitely have Jerry's Bee on their radar with a 24 percent First Choice. In the final analysis, Dreamworks will succeed here with an opening weekend number that is near the $41.5 million that Happy Feet pulled off in '06, and it should easily double its $18.8 million performance with Flushed Away on the same weekend last year. I'm putting Bee Movie in the $40 million-$43 million range for its first three days, but I'm not expecting a multiplier anything close to the 4.77 that helped achieve Happy Feet's $198 million domestic.

Some questioned my $40 million forecast for American Gangster when I offered my early tracking preview. Ridley Scott's long-awaited Gangster (Universal), starring Oscar winners Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe, is an absolute tracking juggernaut with remarkable numbers across the board. The gritty, R-rated Oscar contender had dramatically better tracking, 10 days away from release, than last year's Best Picture Oscar winner The Departed (Warner Bros.) had at the same point of its advance campaign. Now the week-of tracking for Gangster stacks up well with March's R-rated action sensation 300.

I'm told that as of Sunday (Oct. 28), American Gangster had 14 percent Un-Aided Awareness compared to the 17 percent mark posted by 300 on the Sunday prior to its release. Un-Aided Awareness is the best tracking measure for audience buzz. It means that moviegoers surveyed are talking about Gangster with no prompting. Virtually everyone has heard about American Gangster with a Total Aware of 88 percent, far stronger than the 63 percent for Zack Snyder's swords-and-sandals epic. Gangster is also outpacing 300 in Definite Interest 57 percent-52 percent and First Choice 34 percent-24 percent at the comparable point of their respective marketing cycles.

Once we go inside the First Choice demographic breakouts for these two films, it's clear that 300 was slightly stronger with Males Under 25, but Females are far more interested in Gangster:

FIRST CHOICE Males Under 25
300 — 49 percent
American Gangster — 41 percent
FIRST CHOICE – Males 25 Plus
American Gangster — 49 percent
300 — 26 percent
FIRST CHOICE – Females Under 25
American Gangster — 24 percent
300 — 7 percent
FIRST CHOICE – Females 25 Plus
American Gangster — 24 percent
300 — 12 percent

It's very tough for an urban film with a strong R-rating to reach $50 million on opening weekend, but American Gangster is a rare movie, and it's got a shot. Excellent reviews, Oscar-winning producer, director and cast, coolness with Under 25s, interest among females of all ages, and great appeal amongst African-Americans — it all adds up to $47 million-$50 million. (Well-under the feverishly fanboy-driven $70.8 million delivered by 300). I'm a bit on a limb with this call, but I like my chances. I feel safe in predicting that American Gangster will win the weekend, and, if it manages $20 million on Friday, I suspect that $50 million is a real possibility.

If both Bee Movie and American Gangster can top $40 million this weekend, it will mark only the third time in modern box office history that two movies have opened that big on the same day. The double $40 million opening feat was first accomplished back in 2005 when The Longest Yard grabbed a $47.6 million opening and Madagascar delivered a $47.2 million weekend. The trick was duplicated last November, when Happy Feet scored a three-day of $41.5 million opposite Sony's Casino Royale with $40.8 million during the same frame.

As for the other wide release, Martian Child (New Line), starring John Cusack, a 43 percent Total Aware, 28 percent Definite Interest and 4 percent First Choice should yield no more than $2 million-$4 million.

Here are my Final Predictions for this weekend (Nov. 2-4):
1. American Gangster — $48.75 million
2. Bee Movie — $41 million
3. Saw IV — $13.1 million
4. Dan in Real Life — $7.8 million
5. The Game Plan — $3.7 million
6. Martian Child — $3.6 million
7. Michael Clayton — $3.4 million
8. 30 Days of Night — $3.3 million
9. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married — $2.75 million
10. Gone Baby Gone — $2.7 million