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Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

November 13, 2007

TIP OF THE WEEK: Can't Stay Away? Or How to Build Your Slate Around 'Beowulf'

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! This week marks the release of Beowulf — if you haven't heard anything about this movie, then is your last name Van Winkle, by chance? Perhaps most noteworthy is that it will show in IMAX theaters and in digital 3D in addition to being unspooled via more conventional methods. (After seeing The Nightmare Before Christmas rerelease in 3D, I'd definitely recommend the experience if you don't mind the extra $1 or $2 surcharge.) That fact alone may help Beowulf's grosses amidst already strong tracking numbers — but will it bring in enough money (and stay in the Top 5 long enough) to make its fat price tag worth it?

Beowulf is the most expensive option in both Box Office Moguls and Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues for the current season. I personally don't think that picking any film over $40 is worth it, regardless of how monstrous it looks to be. Even if it does dominate the box office, the price tag limits the potential for you to spend money on other solid mid-priced hits, or find that sleeper pick. It forces some reliance on cheap titles outperforming their expectations, and if you want a solid PTA earner without gambling on iffy picks like Out of the Blue, then you'll have used up over half of your available funds on two movies. Still, maybe Beowulf's potential intrigues you. Maybe you truly do believe it can crack $250 million. Maybe you think the motion capture and director Robert Zemeckis' pedigree will fill the turnstiles (or maybe you really, really love Angelina Jolie), and just can't picture your slate without it.

Well, then you're in luck! I've compiled a sample slate for both Ultimate and Box Office leagues that, while anchored by Beowulf (and perhaps hampered by the high price tag), could still be competitive in November-January leagues (or at least, I think it could). I've restricted it to movies that haven't opened yet, so that it'd be possible to follow these prescriptions exactly, if you so desire. I also made sure to use all eight available slots (because more often that not, that will work out better than picking, say, 2 blockbusters and a somewhat smaller film), and for the perfectionists out there, each slate uses all of the allotted $100. Onward!

For Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, in addition to Beowulf ($40):
• Enchanted (Nov. 21; $13)
• I'm Not There (Nov. 21; $11)
• Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Dec. 21; $8)
• P.S. I Love You (Dec. 21; $13)
• Alien vs. Predator: Requiem (Dec. 26; $4)
• The Orphanage (Dec. 28; $2)
• The Air I Breathe (Jan. 25; $9)
TOTAL = $100

Enchanted is looking more and more like it will be one of the better picks of the season. Disney never fails to deliver — even Underdog, which was released amidst heavy competition, the same weekend as megahit The Bourne Ultimatum, and was Jason Lee's first step toward singlehandedly ruining all old television shows (Alvin and the Chipmunks is up next), has clawed its way to a fairly respectable $43 million since then. Enchanted, by contrast, has a more prestigious holiday release date (what else says "family coming together" like Disney films and the holiday season?), more recognizable stars (although WHY Grey's Anatomy, the means by which Patrick Dempsey has gained recognition, is so popular, I'll never understand), and a premise of half animation, half live action (one character is half man, half bear, half pig! No, wait, that's South Park) that's sure to intrigue some more folks into seeing it. The trailer starts off with a comparison to the classic Disney stories, including The Lion King and a few other, more princess-centric films, setting up a pattern of greatness to entice even more people in. And of course, it's got the juxtaposition of past (the notion of princes and princesses) with present (Times Square and downtown Manhattan) that helped guide A Knight's Tale to $56 million overall, in 2001 no less, and without the Disney name behind it. Enchanted may not come even close to The Lion King's $328 million, but one third of that would be mighty nice, and it's certainly within reach — and for only $13!

As my colleague Indie Jones told you last week, the Bob Dylan biopic I'm Not There is almost a must-have. This one's a solid PTA pick, and a release date relatively early in the season means that after it's grabbed all the PTA it can, it'll slowly expand wider and start to bring in bigger box office numbers, perhaps as awards campaigns for its actors get underway. Great IMDb user ratings are assured, as well — it currently sits at 8.2, with over 800 votes. If anything's a shoo-in for PTA, this is it, and it will more than likely end up as a solid all-around contributor. It may not get any Top 5 points, but remember that you've got Beowulf for that!

As hot as Judd Apatow is right now, he could produce or direct video game adaptations and they'd still break $100 million. That's precisely why Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story is a great value pick. It's not the big release on Dec. 21; that honor goes to National Treasure: Book of Secrets (and Dewey still has holdover business for I Am Legend and The Golden Compass in its path). But Knocked Up held its own against the May Monsters this year, and Superbad found a niche even between Bourne and Rush Hour 3. So, even though finding success in the December movie market could be a long hard walk, Dewey Cox will walk hard. (And then sing a song about it.) Films like Walk the Line and Ray may not be the first thing that pops to your mind when you think parody, but who can deny the golden touch Apatow seems to have, or that John C. Reilly stole the show from Will Ferrell in Talladega Nights, or that Paul Rudd as John Lennon is a humorous thought indeed? (Honorable mention goes to Jack White as Elvis.) Throw in some Saturday Night Live cast members from past and present (Tim Meadows, Chris Parnell, Kristen Wiig) and The Office's Jenna Fischer, and you're pretty much appealing to all fans of comedy, right there. Fantasy Moguls says $39 million; I say, double that. It should hold up well into January, too.

Of course, how better to celebrate the holidays with your significant other than seeing a heartwarming romantic film? P.S. I Love You (wherein a young widow discovers that her late husband has left her messages intended to ease her grief over his death) even has the dual drawing power of Gerard Butler — women want to see him because he was in 300 (and was shirtless), and men will be okay with seeing this movie because, hey, Gerard Butler was in 300 so he's still manly. Hilary Swank's two Oscars gave her some immunity from the disasters that were The Black Dahlia, Freedom Writers and The Reaping, besides which, that's a trifecta of poor quality, and three is enough. This one's bound to be better. (It does share a director with Freedom Writers, but the Christmas release date, instead of a debut in the bowels of January, instills some confidence in me.) Again, it's not the king of the castle on its opening weekend, but on the other hand, chick flicks often aren't — last year The Holiday played second fiddle to Apocalypto but still pulled down $63 million by the end of January. Expect similar things from P.S. I Love You. $60 million is probably the highest it'll go, but even that much (plus a couple Top 5 points and a probably satisfactory IMDb score) is a solid contribution.

Taking Alien vs. Predator: Requiem may do a tiny bit of damage to your IMDb score; the first AvP film only managed a 5.4. However, the amount of money it brings in (especially relative to the price) should offset that. Now, I think the mixing of characters was pretty stupid in the first place, and so I'm not really excited for this installment. But, I know that some people are, so that's why I still have it on my slates and still recommend it for you here. Directors Colin and Greg Strause did do some visual effects work on 300 and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, too, so at least maybe it'll look cool. With the built in fan base, AvP2 will fare substantially better than last year's '"unpeaceful" Christmas offering, Black Christmas. That opened to $3 million and topped out at $16 million; AvP2 should make that $16 million in its first week. It may not do as well as the first Alien vs. Predator, but at $4, would you really expect it to?

Like Pan's Labyrinth last year, The Orphanage comes from Spain this year, and if all goes well, will be a great $2 pick for PTA. It'll have stiff competition from Woody Allen's Cassandra's Dream, but The Orphanage is much cheaper and could net almost as many points. (And with Beowulf sucking up $40, you can hardly expect to be flinging your cash around everywhere else.) Producer Guillermo del Toro showed a knack for depicting the fantastical with Pan's Labyrinth, and that should continue here. Also helping is the fact that foreign films tend to play very well in the United States with small screen counts. (For example, take a look at Saawariya, which grabbed some PTA points this weekend even on a high-by-limited-release standards 85 screens.) This one's also a very popular pick even if you aren't dealing with a somewhat more limited budget — so the question then becomes, can you afford NOT to have it?

You may feel like $9 is a lot to spend on a movie with only one weekend in play, but The Air I Breathe is a limited release, so you're choosing it for PTA, which doesn't often occur in multiple weeks anyway. AND, the film currently carries an astounding 9.5 IMDb score with over 800 votes, so if it goes down, it will do so minutely. Consider the very well-known cast, too: Kevin Bacon, Brendan Fraser, Sarah Michelle Gellar, Forest Whitaker and Andy Garcia (who, after watching the trailer, apparently is playing Terry Benedict again — I kid, but he still walks fast). It's based on an ancient Chinese proverb which breaks life into four emotional cornerstones: happiness, pleasure, sorrow and love. And of course, all four are interrelated. Seems to scream "weekend PTA winner" to me. (But, if you just don't want to throw that much money into the final weekend, substitute The Diving Bell and the Butterfly on Nov. 30, also for $9, no harm, no foul.)

For Box Office Moguls leagues, in addition to Beowulf ($42):
• Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Dec. 21; $11)
• P.S. I Love You (Dec. 21; $13)
• Alien vs. Predator: Requiem (Dec. 26; $8)
• One Missed Call (Jan. 4; $8)
• 27 Dresses (Jan. 11; $10)
• John Rambo (Jan. 25; $5)
• Be Kind Rewind (Jan. 25; $3)
TOTAL = $100

My thoughts on the first three titles as they relate to the Box Office game echo what I've already said about Ultimate, so in the interest of not repeating myself, I'll start here with ...

One Missed Call, a remake of a 2003 Japanese horror film, aiming squarely towards the teen horror crowd who flocked to The Grudge and The Ring. Complete with cell phone theme, so that it'll encourage them to do MORE distracting things with their phones during the movie! After the credits, they'll probably be constantly checking for an eerie voicemail telling them when they're going to die, too. (I smell a prank opportunity ... ) Many people think this stuff is crap, but there's no question it sells, especially during the winter. Think When a Stranger Calls ($47 million) or The Messengers ($35 million), both of which came out the first weekend in February, against the Super Bowl. (But what do teenage girls, the biggest demographic for these movies, care about that anyway?) I'm actually somewhat surprised One Missed Call ISN'T coming out on Super Bowl weekend, but I suppose it wanted to avoid going directly toe-to-toe with The Eye or the pushed-back All the Boys Love Mandy Lane. (Further Super Bowl weekend bonus for 'tweens: the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus Best of Both Worlds Tour! In theaters! Like, OMG! Oh, and to continue the potential turdfest, Uwe Boll's Postal comes out then too.) The first Hostel did fine for itself with a January release; One Missed Call won't be as shocking or gory, but it does have the ultimate mitigating factor in inflating the bottom line for scary movies (even if they're somewhat marginal) — a PG-13 rating.

With P.S. I Love You AND 27 Dresses on your slate, you'd pretty much have the chick flick demographic cornered this season. Katherine Heigl plays a bridesmaid who, after 27 go-rounds of that noise, must wrestle with the idea of doing it one more time as her sister (Malin Akerman, the crazy chick from The Heartbreak Kid) marries the man she's secretly in love with. It's a similar draw to The Wedding Date, though 27 Dresses has far more box office potential, especially given Heigl's more widespread beyond-television exposure with Knocked Up. This gives P.S. I Love You three weeks to do its business, then hits the ground running to pull 'em right back in. Could see a mini-resurgence as we approach Valentine's Day, too (because I sure as heck am not relying on The Hottie and the Nottie, starring Paris Hilton, for my Valentine's date), but since that's not in the scope of the current season, we'll stash that thought away until a later column. The rest of January is for teens (One Missed Call), kids (Veggie Tales), Internet fans (Whatever JJ Abrams Is Calling His Movie of Which We Will Supposedly Find Out the Official Title This Weekend), and nostalgics (John Rambo, coming up in a bit). And while there's stuff like Mad Money aimed chiefly at women, 27 Dresses and P.S. I Love You are the big ones. Why not grab 'em both?

As I outlined in my Bargain Basement Spectacular a few weeks ago, I think John Rambo is the best $5 or less pick out there this season. The trailer might look subpar, sure, but I thought that about Rocky Balboa, and that didn't work out too badly for Sylvester Stallone at all. (Think it was Rocky's success that made him decide to do another Rambo?) Nostalgia plays — even beyond Rocky and Die Hard and Indiana Jones, just look at Transformers and even The Simpsons, to an extent (even though the show is still running). Rambo is just another iconic character, up there on screen one last time, and people will see the movie perhaps because they loved the first films, perhaps because they're just curious to see how the series updates, perhaps because seeing an action film where one guy takes on everyone else is just their type of movie. True, it's only got one weekend, but a $20 million shot in the arm for the low low price of $5 is not out of the question at all.

Jack Black with a magnetized brain, acting goofy in low budget remakes of many classic films? That's the premise of Be Kind Rewind, and with director Michael Gondry behind the camera, you can be sure his sense of quirky awkward humor shines through. Gondry's last big film, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (yes, I'm skipping over The Science of Sleep), is a cult favorite (the word "masterpiece" has come up around it), and perhaps that status will inspire more people to see Be Kind Rewind in the theaters this time around. And while it's not the same kind of humor, there won't have been anything to tickle audiences' funny bones since Walk Hard (discounting Fanboys, which looks like it may get moved again), so you could reap some benefits from that. Keep your eye on Be Kind Rewind, as it may be a limited release at first, but assuming it goes wide, your investment is safe. (Last I heard, the original plan was a limited release around Christmas and THEN it'd go wide in January, but then the Christmas thing was scrapped and New Line just decided to go wide right away in January.) It's a measly $3, and it won't be huge, but there's no reason to think $10 million isn't doable on that first (and last, for Fantasy Moguls play) weekend, and for $3, that's a pretty good return.

Now, of course there are other possible competitive combinations — perhaps you'd like to have 4 PTA titles in your Ultimate league instead of three (even though Beowulf is bound to accrue some points there, too). Just take this basis, and play with it from there. This is a model on which you can most certainly vary and expand — and if you do use it, let's hope it propels you to victory!

Mister Informative would like to know which one is Paris, the hottie or the nottie? And, honestly, wouldn't you be 100 times more likely to see this film if they'd titled it The Haughty and the Naughty? Share your disdain for tacky hotel heiresses at misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.

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Posted at 08:08 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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Comments

Nicodemus the Complimentary

Great column, Mister I.

Wow. Brevity. Dude.


I remain, as always...


Nico.

Posted by: Nicodemus the Complimentary | November 13, 2007 at 09:27 AM

annyonggob888

Just for P.S I Love You, sure women will want to see it because it has Gerard Butler, who went shirtless in 300. As for the men, I doubt the fact that Gerard Butler was in 300 is gonna have any effect on whether we're gonna want to see it or not (Or maybe it's just me...). Likely, men will only go to see P.S if they're dragged kicking and screaming by their respective other...

Posted by: annyonggob888 | November 13, 2007 at 06:41 PM

Mister Informative

I completely agree with you there, it's not that men will WANT to see P.S. I Love You, but that they won't put up quite as much of a fight about being dragged to it. The reasoning being: "Well, at least Gerard Butler's in it. And I'm a guy, so (odds are) I like 300, and by extension I hold the actors that were in it in high esteem, too."

Posted by: Mister Informative | November 13, 2007 at 10:44 PM

numbersix_99

Also PS I Love You is also a fairly popular chick-lit novel (written by the Irish prime-minister's daughter, no less)- it will have a fan base, but I still can't see it doing very well. It just doesn't have the star power.

Posted by: numbersix_99 | November 14, 2007 at 03:36 AM

lillylovelost

Isn't the JJ Abrams movie called Cloverfield? I kinda like the 1-18-08 title.

Posted by: lillylovelost | November 16, 2007 at 07:03 PM

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