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November 20, 2007

TIP OF THE WEEK: Mid-Range Values for Your Moguls Feast Or Are You Really Going to Not Pick Up 'Enchanted?' Really? Are You That Dense?

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! Welcome to yet another Tip of the Week. I often highlight films on extreme ends of the pricing spectrum, whether it's pointing out the overpriced bombs or helping you find those really cheap sleepers. This week, however, I'm trying something a little different. Think about it like your Thanksgiving meal. You don't want to gorge yourself on just one food item, do you? You've got to have the mashed potatoes, the pumpkin pie ... not JUST the turkey.

This column features 10 of Fantasy Moguls's dinner rolls: All by their lonesome, one won't fill out your slate. But, put a few of them together and your studio/dinner is much more well-rounded. With the help of some of these " 'tweener values," as I like to call them, perhaps you can turn your Thanksgiving weekend into a feast celebrating Moguls victory! (Certainly not a Feast of Love. What the heck is that, anyway? Does it involve cannibalism? Eating your spouse?) Digressions aside, here are 10 of the current season's best remaining picks (five for Ultimate Movie Moguls players, five for Box Office Moguls players; though, admittedly, some of the Box Office picks would work fine for Ultimate too) priced at a middling, not-too-filling $10-$19. Dig in!

The Weinstein Company plans to roll out I'm Not There (Nov. 21; $11 Ultimate) on 125 screens over the holiday weekend, much to the chagrin of many Fantasy Moguls players who think its PTA potential has been mightily diminished. Let me remind you, however, that No Country for Old Men managed another 4 PTA points this past weekend, even with an expansion to a similar 148 screens. Sure, Todd Haynes is not the Coen brothers, but his movie is getting great reviews, and his previous Oscar nomination for screenwriting (for 2002's Far From Heaven) has to be worth something too. Also, look at the success other musical biopics have had (most notably Ray and Walk the Line). For further reassurance, one must only look back to October, when The Darjeeling Limited stuck around in the PTA Top 5 for three weeks, even as it expanded to over 200 screens. You might argue that November and December are much more competitive in the way of PTA on any given weekend. Okay, I'll concede that. Still, while I'm Not There's value may be slightly diminished by what seems like a high screen count, that doesn't make it completely worthless, and it's pretty much a lock to get you at least 5 PTA points.

Philip Seymour Hoffman in a dramatic role. Bingo, points, count it. He won an Oscar for Capote, and look how Before the Devil Knows You're Dead has performed thus far — 7 PTA points, and an "I'll take it!" $2 million in box office receipts. The Savages (Nov. 28; $12 Ultimate) is a bigger deal than Devil. Performances from the two stars (Hoffman and Laura Linney) are almost certainly compelling (after all, the movie won Best Screenplay at the Flanders International Film Festival), and this film's opening weekend PTA prospects are looking up, what with Flawless moving to March and Teeth purportedly being pushed back to February. If you're just too wary of I'm Not There to invest in it, this makes a good replacement. Even if I'm Not There has nothing to do with your choice, The Savages is still a good pick, especially since we've seen with Control that a Wednesday release really doesn't hamper PTA potential all that much.

There are five words that, more than any other aspect of the film, will lure moviegoers to see Youth Without Youth (Dec. 14; $11 Ultimate): "directed by Francis Ford Coppola." If for some reason you aren't familiar with Coppola, he's won five Oscars. And I know that in itself doesn't guarantee success in future endeavors; heck, look at Ridley Scott's A Good Year. But, I think it's worth noting here, especially because the weekend of Dec. 14 doesn't have another major PTA competitor. Maybe The Kite Runner, but I think that will suffer from the same political fatigue Lions for Lambs and Rendition have already experienced. Holdovers Atonement and Juno and blockbuster I Am Legend may sneak in there, but you could certainly do worse than betting on Youth Without Youth. Holdovers do sometimes grab points in multiple weekends, but only rarely do they take the top PTA spot over new releases. With no terribly noteworthy PTA releases on the following weekend, either, Youth Without Youth could become another multiple-week PTA earner. Reviews call the film "an arthouse film that's not commercial." Yet, you don't need HUGE commercial success to strike PTA gold. It's not The Godfather, but you shouldn't expect it to be.

Following the trend of mentioning Oscar nominees, I give you Persepolis (Dec. 25; $11 Ultimate), which is among the animated films eligible for an Academy nomination in that category, could bring your slate a nice little Christmas PTA present. Foreign films play well to limited-release audiences in the United States (for a recent example, Saawariya grabbed some PTA points on its opening weekend despite a fairly high screen count of 85), and I think that fact will get rid of the genre fatigue this might have (the film takes place in Iran — not the same thing as if it were just another Iraq War movie, but probably close enough in the minds of many). Another positive sign is that Persepolis won the Jury Prize at Cannes this year, and has a sterling 8.2 IMDb rating with over 1,100 votes cast. Hypothetically, you could rely entirely on France for your PTA this season, with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Looking for Cheyenne and Persepolis. If you're going to pick just one of the three, though, go with Persepolis.

When people went to see The Darjeeling Limited this September/October, it was almost certainly not so much about seeing that particular movie as about seeing a Wes Anderson film. He's got a distinctive style, and a distinctive fanbase. The same holds true for Woody Allen, and that's why Cassandra's Dream (Dec. 28; $13 Ultimate) is a nice 'tweener value. People won't go only because they're interested in the plot, or in Colin Farrell or Ewan McGregor (although that's certainly possible; I'm just generalizing here). Instead, they'll go for those reasons AND because they want to see a Woody Allen film. The last time Allen put a movie out around New Year's was Match Point, and that was his biggest success in the United States to date. It would have opened with 5 PTA points, grabbed another on its second weekend, and it did come away with $13 million by the end of January (and $23 million in its total run). I expect similar performance from Cassandra, although I do think more than 6 PTA points are possible given that One Missed Call is the only wide or limited release currently scheduled for the next weekend. Another bonus is that the film currently stands at a 7.7 on IMDb, with over 800 votes cast, and if foreign performances are any indication, it's still in the Top 10 at the French box office after three weeks. It debuted in fifth and, without having a subscription to view the exact charts, it looks to have come in eighth this past weekend. Look for a low theater count opening weekend, with a slow expansion, eventually contributing solidly in three of four categories (Top 5 points being the only exception).

Enchanted (Nov. 21; $16 Box Office) could end up being the must-have pick of the season. Box office totals should go considerably higher than the projected $59 million and, to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if this cracks $100 million. It should win this weekend, possibly the next two, especially with Beowulf's weaker-than-expected start. In that respect, potential for Top 5 points also makes it a good Ultimate play (and it falls into the 'tweener category there too), with a current IMDb of 7.9, though that's sure to go down once the film is released. Basically, in Box Office leagues, don't bet against Disney (unless it's non-family fare like Stay Alive or Primeval), especially in this case. The Game Plan has made $87 million thus far and, comparing the two movies, Enchanted looks much better. Hence, it should make more than that, without question, especially as it plays into the holidays when kids will have more time off from school and parents will be looking for something they can take the whole family to. And while Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium, Fred Claus and (eventually) The Golden Compass will be out there, Disney is still most often the first thing that comes to mind as a source for family-friendly entertainment. Avoid this one at your own peril.

It's true, Hitman (Nov. 21, $14 Box Office) is aiming for the same demographic that Shoot 'Em Up was, back in September. That had a similar price tag, and ended up a colossal disappointment (only $12 million!) But, I think it'll be different this time around. I hate to say that the fact it's based on a video game is actually a positive thing, but in this case, I think it's true. There's more of a built-in audience, from those who've played and enjoyed the games. (In one scene that was released online, I noticed that as Agent 47 is escaping from one thing or another, he ends up in a room with two boys playing ... you guessed it, Hitman, the game. Purposeful tactic, I'm sure.) It'll make the Top 5 this weekend and has an outside shot at the No. 2 spot (depends on how much Beowulf drops off). Also, an adrenaline-filled action movie seems to fit pretty nicely with Thanksgiving Day football as a way for men to spend the day, don't you think? (Fox is hoping so; they've been advertising it like crazy during NFL games the past two weekends.) Of course, if you still just can't bring yourself to rely on a video game adaptation of all things, move some money around and snag Cloverfield, which isn't a GREAT tweener value, but at $17 is worth a shot nonetheless.

Add Judd Apatow's name to just about anything, and it could probably make $100 million. That's why Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Dec. 21; $11 Box Office) is a great tweener pick. It'll be the big comedy of the winter. We won't have had anything similar since The Heartbreak Kid, and just as genre-starved marketplaces had much to do with the success of The Game Plan and Bee Movie, the same will happen here. (Think everyone that DIDN'T see The Heartbreak Kid was just saving their money for Dewey?) It may not bring you the $47 million opening weekend Talladega Nights did, but somewhere a little south of the $28 million opening of Anchorman feels about right, even amidst I Am Legend and National Treasure: Book of Secrets. Bruckheimer = blockbuster, Will Smith = blockbuster, but who would've thought Judd Apatow would be the same way? Yet he's proven that; all four of his latest major projects (including producing duties), The 40 Year Old Virgin, Talladega Nights, Knocked Up and Superbad, have grossed over $100 million. (Anchorman clocked in with a not-too-shabby $84 million, as well.) Here's another guy you just can't afford to bet against.

Last year The Good Shepherd made about the quietest $60 million I've ever seen. The same thing could happen this year with Charlie Wilson's War (Dec. 25; $14 Box Office). Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (even as much as I dislike her) are two of Hollywood's biggest and most solid box-office draws. We haven't heard from Roberts since Charlotte's Web, almost a year ago, and haven't SEEN her on screen (thank goodness) since Ocean's Twelve, now almost three years ago. While I just can't stand her, I realize I may be in the minority, so there's got to be some people out there who can't wait to see her latest role. Throw in Philip Seymour Hoffman, who by now I may as well say is featured in this column, and you've got a movie that appeals to that exact over-25 adult Good Shepherd audience, except even a bit wider. Fantasy Moguls says $57 million; I think it can go higher, especially if it's a wide release from the get-go on Christmas Day. (If not, it may take longer than the scope of the season to reach that.)

And finally, a romantic comedy to, hmm — let me conjure up a nice, sugary holiday phrase — make you impervious to the winter cold by warming your heart. Awww, so sweet. It's 27 Dresses (Jan. 11; $10 Box Office), Katherine Heigl's first role since (arguably) being "discovered" in Knocked Up. Sure, she had movie roles before that, but never as a leading lady. And boy, has she come a long way since Zyzzyx Rd. (I kid you not, that's how it's spelled, and apparently it HAS to be abbreviated), a movie that made — get ready for it — a whopping $20 in theaters. Twenty bucks. It made $30 opening weekend, but $10 was refunded to a member of the film's crew who realized he shouldn't have had to pay to see it. It makes me laugh. Anyway, the point is that Katherine Heigl is far beyond that kind of film by now, and she can genuinely carry 27 Dresses. (WorstPreviews posted 49 pictures from the movie today, and it looks like all 27 dresses are among them, if you are that curious.) This makes for excellent counter-programming to Cloverfield the following week, too; there is definitely room for this to succeed in the January schedule. (And if you're so inclined, perhaps there should be room on your slate for it too.)

Happy Thanksgiving! I'll be back next week with a week-by-week breakdown of December sure things, probable disappointments and potential surprises. Until then, good luck, and bon appétit!

Mister Informative is saving lots of room for that green bean casserole with the crunchy onion stuff on top. Tell him he's wrong about Enchanted — no, really, smart guy, he double-dog dares you — at misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.

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Posted at 07:37 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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