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November 01, 2007

TIP OF THE WEEK SPECIAL EDITION: Holiday Bargain Basement Spectacular Vol. 2 or I Knew There Were Some Films I'd Forgotten About

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! Today I'm continuing to channel my inner Tarantino, bringing you Vol. 2 of the Bargain Basement Spectacular, focusing this time on films in the Ultimate Movie Moguls game. If I do say so myself, however, I think I've got a leg up on ol' Quentin (or at least a quicker production schedule); the second installment in this saga is right before your eyes, and you haven't even had to wait six months for it (a la Kill Bill)! But then again, if we were to have a film directing contest, I'm pretty sure the Q.T. would play the part of the Boston Red Sox, and I, the Colorado Rockies.

Some of the films on my list are there because they have box office potential (but beware of a possibly low IMDb score), others because they could be a nice little inexpensive PTA sleeper. I've got wide releases, some smaller ones (including a Sundance sensation), and even a few films from around the globe. There's something for everyone's tastes and/or needs, for every slate! So, without further ado (drum roll, please), here are the 10 best $5-or-less Ultimate picks for the November–January holiday season:

10. College (Jan. 4; $2) may very well bring a poor IMDb score to the table, but it is one of only two $2 movies that have  double-digit (in millions) box-office potential. (You'll see the other one further down this list.) It could go any number of ways, from surprise success (unlikely) to complete flop (a distinct possibility). It does, however, have the benefit of a wide release. It'll at least be available to a wide audience, and maybe it'll suck in some crowds (or maybe it will just suck) who've seen all the holiday biggies already, and aren't very interested in expanding arthouse flicks. Perhaps I'm underestimating the drawing power of an R-rated comedy that resembles Superbad or Accepted and has a collegiate plot base, even despite its virtually unknown cast of TV actors and a "dump" release date in January. Even at $2, it's a bit of a gamble, as the IMDb score won't be great and you certainly won't get any PTA points from it. But, it could sneak into the Top 5 and bring in a respectable amount of money. I've been in leagues where there's only $6 million between first place and second place in the box office category, so even if College only graduates with $15-20 million, that could end up being the margin of victory.

9. Flakes (Dec. 19; $2) comes from the director of Because I Said So and 40 Days and 40 Nights (not to be confused with Josh Hartnett's more recent numerical days/nights project). This film, however, won't be released as widely as those. It features an aspiring rock musician who runs a cereal bar, and a woman named Pussy Katz (played by Zooey Deschanel) who designs radically-themed clothing — a little offbeat, to be sure. Screenwriter Karey Kirkpatrick can, however, do the offbeat stuff well. For proof, consider that he also penned the script to The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. (And yes, yes director Michael Lehmann long, long ago created the seminal Heathers. Someday he's GOT to make another at least half-decent film, right? Law of averages and all that.) A bonus is that the IMDb rating sits at an excellent 8.1 right now, although there haven't even been 50 votes cast. Your best hope with this one is for PTA — though do be aware that it's going against The Bucket List and big gun National Treasure: Book of Secrets. There will also always be holdovers to be wary of, but Flakes just might be able to slip onto the list PTA winners over its opening weekend.

8. French film Looking For Cheyenne (Dec. 7; $4) certainly won't best Atonement or the newly-moved Juno in the PTA category on this weekend, but I believe it has an outside shot at coming in third. (The other big competitors for that slot will be Grace is Gone and The Golden Compass, which just might muscle in on the No. 1 spot.) I'd sum the story up (in an oversimplified way) as a combination of Brokeback Mountain and Into the Wild. Cheyenne, a journalist in Paris, is laid off and decides to leave for the middle of nowhere, leaving her true love Sonia (yes, those are both female names) behind. Character development abounds as each tries to forget the other, unsure if they can do so or even if they should. (The French title, Oublier Cheyenne, translates more directly as "To Forget Cheyenne," which seems to fit better to me, but I'm not the one making the titles.) There's a market for foreign films in the States, and even though it may not be a big one, filling up theaters in a few select cities is all that's necessary for this movie to pay excellent Moguls dividends. If this film appears on more than a dozen screens opening weekend, I'll be shocked, but a low screen count means it's definitely in the running for placement among the PTA leaders. For what it's worth too, the film currently carries a respectable 6.9 IMDb rating (albeit with fewer than 75 votes cast) but the PTA potential is the main reason Looking for Cheyenne makes this list.

7. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Dec. 25; $5) seems destined to get lost in the shuffle of the holidays, especially with competition for the family demographic from The Golden Compass, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and even National Treasure: Book of Secrets (plus Fred Claus, which I suspect will see a mini-resurgence towards the end of December due to its seasonal subject matter). It's somewhat of a pity, too, because I think the idea of the water horse growing into the Loch Ness Monster (thus de-scarifying it a tad) is an interesting idea. (The fact that the reason for the PG rating includes "brief smoking" also amuses me.) On the plus side, though, family films do tend to perform independently of one another, so hope for $25 million and maybe a few Top 5 points isn't out of the question. It could have decent legs as we get into January, too, which is why despite my misgivings about how well it'll hold up against stiff competition, I still recommend it.

6. You can expect $15-20 million from The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (Jan. 11; $2), the only other $2 pick with double-digit millions in box-office potential. An interesting tidbit: The script was completed in 2002, before any of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies, but bankruptcy and studio buyout issues halted production until 2005. It has kind of worked to the studio's advantage, though, because now they can use the similarity as a marketing ploy. The VeggieTales characters are certainly kid friendly, and the G rating means parents won't have any qualms about taking their kids to see it. Plus, it will teach the young 'uns a valuable lesson — what's not to like, from a parent's perspective? The VeggieTales gang's last foray into theaters (in 2002, with Jonah: A VeggieTales Movie) came away with $16 million in a three-week period identical to what laid out in front of this film before the season ends. Most kids likely outgrew VeggieTales in the five years since then, but there are surely a new batch of young whippersnappers who are fans of their veggies (at least, on screen — on plate is an entirely different story).

5. Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem (Dec. 26; $4) offers the biggest potential for box office revenue that you'll get out of any bargain basement pick. The first movie to combine the two franchises opened to $38 million in August 2004, and even spawned a new species — the Predalien, said to appear heavily in Requiem. I don't think this film has a ton of gas in its tank, but a $20 million opening and a $40 million take by the end of January is well within reach. The big thing to be wary of is that the IMDb score will be less than spectacular (Alien vs. Predator scored a 5.4) — but then again, you could find picks that'll do far more damage in the IMDb category than that. It's a crowded holiday season, so there'll be many films battling for Top 5 points every week (as opposed to times like September and October, when it's pretty clear what the Top 5 movies will be every weekend, and in what order). That being said, I do think Requiem can come away with between 1 and 3 Top 5 points by the end of the first two weekends. It won't produce in all categories, but you can't expect that out of something so cheap. You know what you need, and if your need is for box office revenue, look no further!

4. When the two headliners of a movie are Michael Caine and Demi Moore, it's hard to ignore said movie, even if it's a very small release. Such is the case with Flawless (Nov. 30; $2); just the drawing power of those two names could very well propel this heist film into the Top 5 PTA earners of its opening weekend. (There's some indie street cred here as well. Director Michael Radford created a small sensation with Il Postino in 1994, and directed a highly regarded version of The Merchant of Venice starring Al Pacino in 2004.) Nov. 30 is fairly wide open, as PTA goes. While Beowulf should still be ruling the overall box office, it will have dropped off in PTA by its third weekend, and the other main competitors are The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Protagonist and Teeth, none of which looks to be a runaway winner (though I'd have my money on Diving Bell). Holdover I'm Not There is also a strong PTA possibility. I realize that Caine's last film, Sleuth, was expected to garner some PTA, and instead came away with nada, but I'm more confident about Flawless, which can be had far below the price tag that Sleuth carried in October leagues, so it's much less of a risk. $2 for some virtually guaranteed PTA points is not a bad move at all (and the bonus is a very solid 7.1 IMDb rating, at least as of Nov. 1).

3. The main character of Teeth (Nov. 30; $3), Dawn, is based on a myth found in many cultures called "Vagina Dentata." (I can hear the giggles starting already.) In the film, Dawn is a high school student who works hard at suppressing her budding sexuality. When she becomes the object of sexual violence, she discovers that, holy (bleep), there are teeth "down there," as my colleague Indie Jones put it. Yep, Dawn is a living example of the myth. She struggles to comprehend her anatomical uniqueness, and must also contend with both the pitfalls and power inherent in possessing such an anomalous condition. Teeth made a splash at Sundance last year, coming away with a special jury prize for Jess Weixler's performance as Dawn. It's been labeled a horror comedy, so yes, you may see some stubs of those who took things too far, whether it's a real finger or, as Kinsey so delicately put it, "the finger of love." Reviews range from calling it "tongue-in-cheek" (or in somewhere else, er, toothsome) to "social satire," and even as far as flat out hilarious. Those watching it may feel uncomfortable, especially the men, but I think it's intended to have that effect.

As for Teeth's Fantasy Moguls prospects, it bows on Nov. 30, a weekend where it appears that the PTA crown is anyone's for the taking, so PTA points are a distinct possibility. (It also carries a satisfactory 6.1 IMDb rating.) Since PTA points are the hardest category to predict, the more money you spend on them, the more it can come back to bite you. So, speaking of bite ... getting even just a few PTA points from something as cheap as Teeth would be a big return on a very small investment.

2. Last year, the Spanish-language fantasy film Pan's Labyrinth became a holiday season PTA sensation. This year, The Orphanage (Dec. 28, $2), also a Spanish film, looks to do the same. Like Pan's Labyrinth, it's a horror thriller with elements of fantasy, but it doesn't have someone as recognizable to American audiences as Guillermo del Toro associated with it. The Orphanage faces some stiff competition for PTA points — Cassandra's Dream, Persepolis and There Will Be Blood are all releasing the same weekend —  but there are 5 spots for earning PTA points, and even if The Orphanage comes in behind those other three, I still think it can crack the Top 5, and with very few PTA movies coming out in January, all 4 films could find themselves among the PTA leaders again the next weekend. So here again, you've got the potential for a few PTA points, and the IMDb rating, unlike many bargain basement movies, is a sterling 7.9 with over 700 votes. If you put The Orphanage on your slate, you'll get about the most production you can expect from any $2 pick that isn't a wide release.

France and Spain each have their representatives on my list, and my No. 1 pick is another foreign film, hailing from the other "ollywood." That's right ...

1. Saawariya (Nov. 9; $4) may play second fiddle to No Country For Old Men on its opening weekend, at least as PTA goes. Even assuming that's the case, would you rather pay No Country's price tag of $22 for 5 PTA points, or grab Saawariya at $4 for 4 points? (Putting aside that No Country has a planned expansion and more box office potential.) Seems a lot more cost-effective. Bollywood films are a distinct genre of their own; most all of them, even the action/adventure films, are musicals! I think the novelty of such a genre and the spectacle involved might even be enough to keep Saawariya among the PTA leaders for three consecutive weeks. It may never get the maximum 5 points in one weekend, as there's some heavy PTA hitters throughout November (No Country for Old Men, Love in the Time of Cholera, Margot at the Wedding, I'm Not There; not to mention all the wide releases like Beowulf), but even getting two PTA points a week for three weeks would not surprise me; I think it'll have the legs to do so. And as I've said before, finding a movie that can earn PTA points on more than just the first weekend means you've found a gem.

And with that, the two-volume saga comes to an end. I'm now off to further mirror Quentin Tarantino's career path; I'm directing an episode of CSI: Moons of Jupiter. It's going to be very cerebral, with lots of peril due to volcanic activity, and the characters will also have to find new ways to deal with the fact that the moons can't actually support life. I'm very excited, but I shouldn't say too much, lest I give away the twist at the end. (Wink.) Good luck in your holiday leagues!

Mister Informative can be heard on the commentary tracks in the just-released second-season boxed set for CSI: Pawtucket. Or was that CSI: Poughkeepsie? Send him your suggestions for his upcoming Moons of Jupiter at gig misterinformative@fantasymoguls.com.

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Comments

la_resistance28

Danggit, Mr. Info, Saawariya was my personal underdog/secret weapon pick of the season, now you've gone and blown it! =(

Posted by: la_resistance28 | November 01, 2007 at 11:04 PM

slight

la_resistance , sorry to tell you this but I have had same feeling for the film for awhile, as it is in many of my studios and I think there is a few more people out there thinking the same thing before Mr Info told us, I still don't think people are going to choose it just becuase Mr Info put at #1 for bargains basement, I think there is just too much other films to choose from, that other moguls will ignore Saawariya.

Posted by: slight | November 02, 2007 at 01:08 PM

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