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December 12, 2007

BARD'S EYE VIEW: A 'Horse' You Can Ride and Other Reasons Not to Fight 'Charlie Wilson's War'

by Shrykespeare

Season's greetings to all out there in Mogul-land (or as we sometimes like to call it, the Fantaverse), and welcome to the latest installment of Bard's Eye View, the place to come to hammer down all of your New Years' Resolutions ... at least, as far as picking a worthy slate for your 2008 leagues goes. Whether you are a perennial also-ran who is tired of looking up at all or most of your Fantasy Moguls competition, or whether you are a seasoned pro who needs no help from me whatsoever and are merely here for an amusing diversion, I bid you welcome. Although, if you are one of the latter (and I suspect you know who you are), well, let me just preface my previous statement by saying that I am not at all jealous of your uncanny abilities to descry filmic trends, no sir, not at all, no way, nuh-uh. Just don't be surprised when my own personal Grinch absconds with your laptop in the near future ... (Wink.)

2007 has been an interesting year, has it not? It has seen the rebirth of the raunchy sex comedy, the decline of the horror genre, the best works ever by Michael Bay and the Coen Brothers, and the return of many classic directors of years and decades past, thought to have been long retired or out of favor. It has also, not to put too fine a point on it, been a banner year for Fantasy Moguls. I mean, consider where we were one year ago; the site was just starting, the "draft" format was still in effect, and there wasn't really very much going on in terms of discussion or review. But now, it has become a staple in many of our lives, and I am very proud to have been part of its growth. I think we are at an all-time high right now, and with the advent of the upcoming "Super Leagues," who knows how much higher we'll go?

But for now, I'm here to close the door on this most interesting of years, with five films scheduled for release on or about the Christmas holiday. There'll be plenty of familiar faces, dramas, family films, something to satisfy the appetites for filmgoers of all ages before the big neon apple drops. So, without any further ado, let's break out the streamers and the noisemakers for this final shebang of '07.

We'll start with Charlie Wilson's War, which just last week was moved up from Christmas Day to Dec. 21, where it will open against National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Sweeney Todd, Walk Hard and P.S. I Love You. I'm somewhat mystified as to why, I must say. There will be only a four-day gap between this particular Friday and Christmas Day, which will see the release of four new big movies. That makes things very crowded, perhaps overly so, and I can't help but wonder whether this move will help or hurt its chances. Oh well, time will tell.

Directed by veteran helmer Mike Nichols, whose eye for quality does not seem to have waned in the 40 years since brining the classic Dustin Hoffman film The Graduate to theaters, Charlie stars perennial favorite Tom Hanks in the titular role, as a Texas congressman who covertly arms Afghan rebels against the invading Soviet army in the early 1980s. Based on true events, this film would appear to be very satirical in nature, with Hanks perfectly cast as a wisecracking, womanizing politician who finds a way to change the world for the better, and all under the very noses of the passive government he works for.

Joining Hanks and Nichols are fellow Oscar winners Julia Roberts (in her first live-action role since giving birth this past summer) and Philip Seymour Hoffman, who play the roles of an oil billionaire's wife and a bored CIA official, respectively. Put that together with Enchanted's Amy Adams, as well as Emily Blunt and Ned Beatty, and you've got a cast sure to delight and enthrall just about anyone 18 and older.

Let's just hope that this film does not follow the dreadful path that war films involving Middle Eastern countries have taken this year: The Kingdom, In the Valley of Elah, Rendition, etc., underwhelmers one and all. Yes, Charlie Wilson's War is more of a period piece than a modern-day war story, true enough, but will filmgoers and critics be able to effectively split that hair enough to make this film a success? Well, if anyone can make them do it, it's Tom Hanks. I mean, he pushed The Da Vinci Code well past the $200 million mark, despite a whirlwind of controversy and a really awful haircut.

Fantasy Moguls has this film earning seven PTA points, four Top 5 points, a rating of 7.5 and $57 million in receipts, but that was before the film got bumped back four days. I seriously doubt more than one or two PTA points will occur as a circumstance, and Top 5 points are going to be harder to come by now. Most Hanks films tend to have serious legs, however, and $75 million is not out of the question if most audiences don't find the story to be too mature or complex to thoroughly enjoy. All told, I would probably not spend the $25 the December leagues are currently charging for this title in the Ultimate Movie Moguls format, but the $17 it'll cost you in the Box Office Moguls format is most definitely worth serious consideration.

Next up, we have what is without a doubt one of the coolest looking movies ever to come from a comic book which got its inspiration from another movie. Yes, that's right, for those who didn't know ("See, I can educate as well as amuse!"), the whole concept for the Alien vs. Predator comic book came from that one scene in Predator 2, where Danny Glover steals onto the Predators's ship, only to come across a trophy room filled with the skeletons of weird-looking life forms, including that of Ridley Scott's Alien species. From there, the graphic novels were born, and from thence, a full-screen adaptation, which hit theaters for the first time in summer of 2004.

Despite being a rather drab affair, AVP: Alien vs. Predator stormed out to an opening weekend of $38 million, before petering out at just over $80 million after a three-month run. Now, have audiences really been clamoring for another chapter in this story? Not ... really, as far as I know, but here we are: Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem picks maybe the most inappropriate holiday for this type of movie as a release date. Directed by visual effects wizards Colin and Greg Strause (whose resume includes the F/X for The Day After Tomorrow, 300, X-Men: The Last Stand and both Fantastic Four movies), this testament to sci-fi gore and mayhem promises to pull no punches in going for the last few horror bucks of the year.

You'll notice that I've neglected mentioning anything about the plot of this movie so far. Well, here goes: Predators. Aliens. Small town on Earth. Use your imagination. Really, what more IS there to know? Fantasy Moguls is predicting three Top 5 points, which will depend on how big the buzz is and how much I Am Legend may be cooling off, but if it can bust out to an opening weekend of $20 million-plus, it has a good shot at some additional Top 5 points the following weekend, given that the only film coming out in wide release the first Friday of 2008 is the low-grade horror vehicle One Missed Call. User Ratings of 5.0 put it just below the level of the first film, so I won't argue that point, but for five measly bucks, this film is a steal. You're not picking it for ratings anyway, and if this film can pull in $50, $40, or even $30 million, then it's five bucks well spent.

Walden Media, the studio that fielded the breakout family fantasy hit The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe in 2005, is looking for a tent-pole to bridge the gap until Part Two of the series (Prince Caspian) comes out, and The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep might be just the ticket. Based on the book The Water Horse by Dick King-Smith, this film tells the story of a young Scottish boy named Angus (played by newcomer Alex Etel), who finds a mysterious egg, only to have it hatch a being that is straight out of legend: The Loch Ness Monster itself.

Now, as just about everyone knows, "Nessie" is a dinosaur-like creature that has been reported to live under Loch Ness in Scotland for centuries, spawning numerous "sightings" and becoming generally one of the most famous myths in human history. As this story would have you believe, the creature (called a "water horse") is a magical creature that is so rare, there can only ever be one in existence at a time (which would explain how the legend has survived for so long). Taking it upon himself to hide the baby monster, Angus develops a bond with the creature that blossoms into a friendship not unlike that in the Disney classic Pete's Dragon.

Directed by Jay Russell (My Dog Skip, Tuck Everlasting), and co-starring Ben Chaplin, Brian Cox, David Morrissey and Emily Watson, Horse could, along with AVP2, be one of the sleeper hits of the season. Very reasonably priced at $6 in Ultimate leagues ($8 in Box Office), this film has a shot (just a shot, mind you) at some Top 5 points, decent ratings (say, around 6.0-6.5), and a fair amount of bucks. Despite being the season for family films, there's really not all that much for preteens to see and really sink their teeth into, is there? You've got Golden Compass, I Am Legend and Alvin and the Chipmunks, but they'll all be in their third or fourth weeks by now, and that pretty much only leaves National Treasure 2 for the 12-and-under crowd. A lot of people will be overlooking this film in your leagues ... my advice: don't be one of them.

Between 1984 and 1996, you'd be hard-pressed to name a director that hit the mark with audiences as consistently as Rob Reiner. Starting with the classic mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap, Reiner put forth title after title that resonated with filmgoers, even to this day, with their stirring drama, touching emotional connections and wry humor. Go down the list: Stand By Me, The Princess Bride, When Harry Met Sally, Misery, A Few Good Men, The American President, Ghosts of Mississippi. True, his last few outings have not been quite up to Reiner's usual standard (The Story of Us, Alex & Emma, Rumor Has It), but the pendulum would seem to have swung in the other direction again with The Bucket List, which may represent a return to form for the former All in the Family star.

For this film, he has enlisted two of the most beloved and well-respected actors of the last half-century: Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman. These two seasoned veterans (both of whom celebrated their 70th birthdays this year) team up for the very first time in this story of two terminally ill men, one a corporate billionaire and one a blue-collar working stiff, who set off for one last great series of adventures before they die. (The title refers to a list of things the men wish to achieve before they "kick the bucket," har-dee-har.) You'd think that having these two cinematic giants on the same screen would be enough to draw large crowds to the cineplexes, and you'd probably be right. But Reiner seems to be at the forefront of a project that is not only well-written, but very touching as well, and with Nicholson and Freeman at the top of their game, don't be surprised if Oscar nominations materialize for this little gem of a picture.

Now, from what I've been able to piece together, look for this film to open in limited release on Dec. 25, expanding slightly the following week and finally opening everywhere the weekend of Jan. 11. This film could very well snag some PTA points, but it will have to beat some pretty tough competition in Persepolis, There Will Be Blood and The Orphanage to do so. Given the first half of January's weak schedule, a few Top 5 points are also definitely possible. The problem is, $18 is a lot to pay for something that is far from a certain box office hit, and the $33 million that Fantasy Moguls projects for its revenue intake make this a fairly hard sell.

Denzel Washington stepped behind the camera for the very first time back in 2002 when he made Antwone Fisher, a fairly well-received drama that earned just over $21 million and a User Rating of 7.3 in the first few months of 2003. Now, he's operating on both side of the lens again, this time with The Great Debaters, another uplifting true-to-life "teacher" drama, following in the footsteps of such films as Stand and Deliver, Dangerous Minds and this year's Freedom Writers. It's a tried-and-true formula, to be sure, almost always good for decent bucks and fair-to-good ratings.

In this story, which takes place in 1935, Washington plays Mel Tolson, a professor at Wiley College in Marshall, Texas, who inspires some of his students to form the school's first debate team. At a time when the United States was still suffering the after-effects of the Great Depression and race relations were not, shall we say, at their peak, Washington's message is clear: that words, more than weapons, have the power to change the world. Helping him tell this story is fellow Oscar winner Forest Whitaker, teaming up with his longtime friend for the first time onscreen.

This film will only run you $6 in December Box Office leagues, which could very well be a good pick if Washington's pedigree is worth anything. Ratings will probably be very good, but not so much that I'd spend $13 on it for Ultimate, however. As I've said, there's a lot going on this week, and it's going to be hard for a film this comparatively small to make a really big impact.

Well, that's all I have for you today. Join me next week when I'll be breaking in 2008 with five more films scheduled for release in the first half of January: Edwards Burns and Shannyn Sossamon star in One Missed Call, yet another remake of a Japanese horror flick; Katherine Heigl follows up her smash summer hit Knocked Up with 27 Dresses, where she plays a professional bridesmaid; Jason Statham stars in Uwe Boll's latest crap-tastic sewage-fest In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale; three talking vegetables find themselves in a bit of a pickle (snicker) in The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything: A VeggieTales Movie; and Ice Cube and Tracy Morgan play a couple of petty crooks who attempt to heist the local church, only to (surprise!) have it all go disastrously wrong in First Sunday.

Only three weeks left to sign up for the Super Leagues, so don't delay, get your e-mails in to me today!

TTFN!

If Shrykespeare had his own "bucket" list, he'd probably include his dream of coming from behind to win an Ultimate Movie Moguls Super League on the final weekend of the year. Tell him about your own "bucket" longings at shrykespeare@gmail.com.

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Posted at 07:40 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

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Comments

you heard it hear first... 60 mill for Bucket List and it will run in wide release straight through February.

Posted by: Rob | December 12, 2007 at 08:25 AM

Nice column Shryke. I tend to think (and hope !) that "The Bucket List" could be a sleeper hit and pass $50M... Maybe I'm just dreaming, but Nicholson is always a box-office draw.

Posted by: Chienfantome | December 12, 2007 at 10:00 AM

I'm not buying Bucket list. Old washed up actors talking about being old and washed up isn't doing it for me.

Posted by: JackO | December 12, 2007 at 10:28 AM

I agree with JackO that Bucket List will be a bust. And if Reiner's recent films are any clue to how this film will fare,...it will be a dud. 20-30 Million, no PTA, no Top 5 pts.
But, to call Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman washed up is just wrong. This film will fall becuase of the script and direction, no because of its aging yet amazing stars.

Posted by: aadams | December 12, 2007 at 11:28 AM

i don't think blaming the script and direction is actually necessary aadams....there doesn't always have to be a reason a movie fails....it could just be pure bad timing....i think nicholson and freeman are amongst the best and most-proven actors today, and the movie itself will be brilliant, but will fail because it's being tossed out in cinemas already packed with the likes of NT2, Legend, There Will Be Blood, Charlie Wilson's War, etc etc....

Posted by: ashkul | December 12, 2007 at 01:02 PM

Anyone remember a thiller called "Twilight" starring Paul Newman and Gene Hackman that came out a few years ago? Exactly, you don't. No one does. I wouldn't bank on a movie that has zero young person appeal. Charlie Wilson and There Will be Blood should be the adult pics of choice this holiday season, with the possible addition of Great Debaters. I really don't see where The Bucket List is going to find its niche.

Posted by: BrianK | December 12, 2007 at 01:28 PM

Alex Etel isn't exactly a newcomer. He was in the Danny Boyle film Millions, where he played the younger brother. He was the one who gave money to the poor.

Posted by: Matthew Martin | December 12, 2007 at 01:36 PM

So what was the young appeal in "About Schmidt" ? Yet the film made $65M. How about "Something's gotta give" ? Diane Keaton ? Yet the film made more than $100M...BUcket List probably won't do as well, but it sure can make $50M !

Posted by: Chienfantome | December 12, 2007 at 02:12 PM

I still don't get "Charlie Wilson's War", it may have Oscar buzz but I don't think it'll play well, plus I think its too expensive for the investment. "AVP-R" looks much better and I think it will open nicely and match the original. Now that "The Golden Compass" has failed, I truly believe that "National Treasure 2" is going to be huge. The previews I've seen, (despite my most desired intent), look very entertaining and no other family-targeted movie has so great a marketing push behind it. I agree that "The Water Horse" does have a chance to break out, "The Golden Compass"s dismal debut forced me to look at alternative releases and for the price, it looks most promising. As for "The Bucket List", don't think so.

Posted by: Stev | December 12, 2007 at 02:19 PM

National Treasure 2 will open well, then drop like a hot rock.

Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem won't make half of the original.

Charlie Wilson's War has two of the world's biggest box office draws and some Golden Globe nominations already. It's a legs film.

The Bucket List starts in limited release in a crowded spot and expands on January 11th in a crowded spot. Too hard to tell.

The Waterhorse: Legend Of The Deep may be a sleeper hit. With I Am Legend and National Treasure 2 not being prime kids' material and Alvin and The Chipmunks being a retread of most adaptations of cartoons, families will go for the cuteness factor and the fact that it's one of those "good" family films.

Posted by: Matthew Martin | December 13, 2007 at 03:32 PM

Touche ashkul. though its been a long time since A Few Good Men and Reiner couldn't direct himself out of traffic anymore. Dont be surprised if this film is mocked as much as his past flick "Rumor has it"...but even that P.O.S. made 50 mil.
Bet on Legend, N. Treasure, and Dewey Cox, and Wilson to be around late into Jan.

Posted by: aadams | December 13, 2007 at 06:41 PM

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