As I'm writing these first lines, it's a dark, windy and rainy Sunday night in Paris. My day's been enlightened, though, by the cinematic contrast of the visual mastery of Julie Taymor's Across the Universe, and the snowy intimacy of Korean drama Breath, by Kim Ki-duk. Most of you probably don't really care how I spent my Sunday afternoon, but the point is, the contrast of genres and nationalities I experienced in theaters today reflects the contrast American audiences will have the chance to experience on the arthouse circuit come Christmas week. Four major, and undoubtedly different, films will be released that week. There's a Spanish horror thriller, a French animated feature about Iran, the yearly Woody Allen vintage, and an American turn-of-the-century epic drama. It's going to be a great week for arthouse cinema.

Dan Aykroyd said it best — "You wanna see something really scary?" — when it comes to the Spanish sensation of the year, The Orphanage (Dec. 28). From its premiere last May at the Cannes Film Festival (proving once again how eclectic that one can be), to its spectacular opening this fall in Spain, The Orphanage has garnered a terrific word of mouth, combining festival favors, criticial support and popular infatuation. A first feature by young filmmaker Juan Antonio Bayona, the spooky thriller tells of a 40-ish woman who buys the old orphanage where she grew up before being adopted, and settles in with her husband and son. The latter begins to worry her, after he pretends to have met new friends only he can see, and starts playing with them.

I know, this doesn't sound all that original, especially from the Spanish cinema that already gave us two great films in the same vein: Darkness and The Others. And yet, reviews have been excellent, and the pic has dominated the Iberian box-office all through October and November (even though Spain is known, lately, for its lack of interest in national cinema), garnering numbers worthy of a Spider-Man or Harry Potter movie.

In the United States, The Orphanage is being distributed by Picturehouse, the small company that scored a real coup last year with Pan's Labyrinth. Bayona's film has a lot in common with Pan: Spanish language, scary theme, Picturehouse distribution, Guillermo Del Toro (who produced Orphanage and directed Pan), Cannes debut. Don't expect the same kind of success though, as it seems very unlikely that The Orphanage could ever pull down $37 million at the US box-office, get an 8.5 User Rating or win three Oscars. On the other hand, take a look at the price tag in Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues. Yep, you read that right: $3. The R-rated scary movie, the official Spanish entry for the Best Foreign Film at the Academy Awards, is probably the best film there is in the $2-$3 price range. On such a busy weekend, it  probably won't bring home many PTA points, but 1 or 2 is very likely, and the current User Rating of 7.7 on IMDb is solid, with more than 1,100 votes. Commercial prospects are iffy at best, but in Box Office Moguls leagues, the film costs even less ($2).

Some will probably say I don't have sufficient objectivity to make such a statement, but I'll say it anyway: France was the star of animated cinema in 2007. First of all, thanks to Ratatouille, of course, one of Pixar's very best works to date, and a film that made Paris look more beautiful and tasty than any film since Amelie. Second, thanks to Persepolis (Dec. 25), a French animated feature that has built an exceptional reputation internationally, all year long, and now appears ready to conquer America.

The film began as a comic book. A witty and funny one, that takes as a protagonist a teenage girl growing up in Iran a few years ago, when Revolution was soaring. Not exactly X-Men or Spidey, right? The author, Marjane Satrapi, was telling of her own youth, and, soon enough, Persepolis became a classic on Gallic shores. The transposition to the big screen was masterminded by Satrapi herself, with the help of co-writer and co-director Vincent Paronnaud.

Persepolis premiered at the Cannes Film Festival last May, in competition for the Palme d'Or alongside Kusturica, the Coen brothers and Gus Van Sant, to name a few. Critical and crowd enthusiasm followed, and the film went on to win the Jury Prize. It was released in French cinemas a few weeks later where it held steadily in the Top 10 entries at the box office all during summer, becoming THE sleeper hit of the season and attracting more than 1.2 million moviegoers (if you need a comparison, Ghost Rider or Rocky Balboa has slightly less success). That's quite a coup for a black-and-white, traditionally animated, Iran-themed film. Enough to convince Sony Pictures Classics to position it as an Oscar hopeful, opening in the United States on Christmas day. The hope is that the film can steal the statuette away from Ratatouille, and, judging from the recent Critics awards announcement, Persepolis has at least a fighting chance. The film is also the Official entry of France in the Best Foreign Film category, where everyone was expecting La Vie en Rose or The Diving Bell and the Butterfly to have that honor.

Opening on the last weekend of the year, face-to-face with Woody Allen and Paul Thomas Anderson, could hurt Persepolis's chances of shining on its first weekend, don't bury the film too quickly, because over the long term, it should be a nice pick. Put the words "French film," "Cannes winner" and "Oscar buzz" together, and watch out for the New York and Los Angeles film buffs reaction. After all, did you see the PTA numbers for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly? So maybe Persepolis won't get 5 PTA points on opening weekend. It will still get some. And the following weekend too. And if the buzz grows, there's no reason, with so few limited releases in January, why it couldn't keep going, if you ask me. Fantasy Moguls predicts $1.2 million in total receipts; I'm confident it can go higher (hey, Sean Penn and Iggy Pop are feature in English dub). As for the 3 PTA points and 7.7 IMDb user rating, I'll say the same (after all, with more than 1,500 votes, the UR already stands at 8.3). It's a solid pick for Ultimate leagues at $12, and a small investment ($2) that could yield surprising results in Box Office leagues.

You know something is missing when a year goes by without a single Woody Allen film being released. In fact, in the last 25 years, such a thing has happened only twice: in 1991 and 2004. (And, in each of those cases, Woody opened two films the following year!) This year won't be such a year, as the 2007 vintage is entitled Cassandra's Dream (Dec. 28). Two years after the well-deserved success of Match Point, Allen pursues the same dark tone, leaving humor behind and focusing on a dark and almost Shakespearean modern drama. Two brothers from a working-class milieu, one a married mechanic and the other a flirty dreamer pretending to be rich, need a big load of money quickly to repay debts. They turn to their uncle Howard, the one member of the family to make it big (investments in California). In return, he asks them a favor that will change their lives forever.

The pitch is good and, four or five years ago, it would have seemed impossible that such a pitch be one of Woody Allen's films. Match Point changed the deal, however, and it's impossible not to compare it to Cassandra and feel like the New York legend is already repeating himself a bit. He also missing the element of surprise that caught viewers off guard in 2005. What is great, though, is that Allen has turned to new actors, cast against type, with Ewan McGregor as the ambitious show-off and Colin Farrell the down-to-earth, conscientious (of course, Tom Wilkinson is great as the rich uncle, but you know, it's a pleonasm).

Even if Cassandra's Dream is no Match Point, the film has the benefit of good word-of-mouth (7.7 User Rating with more than 1,000 votes). What will be essential, though, in determining its Moguls viability, is the number of theaters that play it on opening weekend. Woody may have a core of fans among the American cinephiles, but they are not as many as his French fans. So if Cassandra doesn't open in a small number of theaters, it won't be worth its $14 price tag. Woody Allen films can get huge PTA numbers, but not if they are released in 500 or 1,000 cinemas. Apparently, the film will open first in New York and Los Angeles before expanding wide the following week. That should translate into a few PTA points (the seven Fantasy Moguls predicts is the best it can possibly do, I would say), and possibly a small bounty at the box-office, around $10 million, if it goes wide enough. In the end, Cassandra's Dream is probably not worth its $14 price tag in Ultimate leagues (especially given that The Weinstein Company is distributing it, and you know that company's not in great shape lately), but it's an interesting $2 pick in Box Office leagues.

Now for the big one. A $19 pick in Ultimate Moguls Leagues, $11 in Box Office. A three-hour epic drama. An affirmative title that sounds either extracted from Tolkien's Lord of the Rings or stolen from a Saw marketing campaign. There Will Be Blood (Dec. 26). As of today, the film that seems to be "the one to beat" at the Oscars is the Coen Brothers's No Country For Old Men. And as of today, the one film that looks the most likely to mess with that scenario is this one. There Will Be Blood.

It almost seems as if Paramount Vantage, who's handling the distribution of the film, wants to keep it low-profile up until the last minute. When everyone was expecting to see Anderson's film at Venice or Toronto last September, it surprisingly went instead to Austin's Fantastic Fest. While many prestige pics jumped into the game early this year (The Assassination of Jesse James, Into the Wild, The Darjeeling Limited, Lust, Caution), There Will Be Blood was held until the very last weekend of the year. What's the strategy behind this slow-motion release? Is Paramount Vantage afraid they'll scare off audiences if they play too open with it?

After all, There Will Be Blood, based upon Upton Sinclair's novel Oil!, is a three-hour drama set in turn-of-the-century Texas, taking for its protagonist a greedy man looking to make fortune in the oil business. The kind of subject, and grandeur, that has long since disappeared in Hollywood. So some might think it's not the easiest film to sell to an audience. Although maybe all Paramount Vantage is doing is building curiosity. Paul Thomas Anderson, revered director of Boogie Nights, Magnolia and Punch-Drunk Love, hasn't directed a feature film since 2002 (he did help Robert Altman on A Prairie Home Companion). And now he's coming back in Golden Age style, with the most mysterious, rare, and fascinating actor alive, Daniel Day-Lewis (Bill the Butcher is still haunting me)? If that's not the kind of combination that helps grow a serious thirst among film buffs, then what is?

And to make it even more obvious, the word of mouth coming from those who have seen There Will Be Blood, be they simple film lovers or critics, is nothing short of astounding, adjectives such as "monumental," "magnificent," "immense," "genius" already being associated to the quality of the film. The Los Angeles Film Critics recently named it Best Film of the year, Anderson Best Director and Day-Lewis Best Actor. Maybe Paramount Vantage pulled a good one by waiting and keeping a low profile. Now P.T. Anderson's film seems on its way to the top.

Of course, when it comes to Fantasy Moguls, you tend to hesitate on such a film, which is far from cheap and could prove one more time that American audiences, this year more than ever, are not interested in seeing serious films. Can it really grab $36 million at the box-office and three Top 5 points? It will need a huge boost from the awards buzz and word of mouth to get that high with such a difficult subject. But the PTA should translate into much more points than just four (I'd say you can double that number easily), just like the User Rating will go higher than 7.5 (it's currently at 9.0 with almost 500 votes). There Will Be Blood is, no doubt about it, a gamble. Personally, I could not imagine not putting it on one of my slates.

What a week, mogul friends. Can you imagine if John Sayles's Honeydripper had been included in Fantasy Moguls leagues? But it hasn't, so you will not hear from me about it. That's it for 2007 folks. Next week, I'll take my first look into 2008, and the very weak month of January. Let's hope the rest of the year will be rich and exciting, full of Bollywood goddesses, Korean genre films, and Gong Li appearances. Sounds too Asian? Not to me, but okay, so let's also hope Kevin Costner will return behind the camera for another western! Vive le cinéma!

Indie Jones did not grow up in an orphanage, but sometimes he talks to people who no one else can see. When that happens, just nod, smile and direct all correspondence to danceswiththearthouse@gmail.com.