There have been a few upside surprises like Enchanted (Disney), with its $83.8 million haul, and This Christmas (Sony), which has a $43.5 million take. Even Fred Claus (Warner Bros.) has slowly crawled its way to $66.3 million domestic. For the most part,  however, high-end projects have crashed and burned. The Iraq War-inspired Lions For Lambs ($14.8 million) and In the Valley of Ellah ($6.7 million) were bombs, Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium ($29.3 million), Hitman ($25.9 million), August Rush ($25.9 million), Awake ($11.6 million) and The Mist ($24.1 million) were, at best, misfires, and even the big budget entry Beowulf ($77.4 million) has been underwhelming. The latest (and most notable) disaster is New Line's The Golden Compass, which, despite a reported $200 million budget, managed only a $25.7 million opening weekend. It will be very difficult for the studio to make back its budget here, and the result could be the ouster of New Line head Bob Shaye.

Finally, however, it appears that there's a movie that America is clearly excited to see. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.), based on the classic '50s novel of the same title (adapted twice already as The Omega Man, starring Charlton Heston; and The Last Man On Earth, with Vincent Price) will debut at 3,606 locations Friday, and industry tracking is pointing toward a monstrous opening. More precisely, a Big Willy style opening. It's hard to overstate the box office muscle of Legend star Will Smith. His last six major releases have all topped $100 million.

The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) — $26.5 million opening, $163.5 million cume
Hitch (2005) — $43.1 million opening, $179.4 million cume
Shark Tale (2004) — $47.6 million opening, $160.8 million cume
I, Robot (2004) — $52.1 million opening, $144.8 million cume
Bad Boys II (2003) — $46.5 million opening, $138.6 million cume
Men in Black II (2002) — $52.1 million opening, $190.4 million cume

Smith may be the most reliable and durable movie star working today, and the industry tracking for I Am Legend is through the roof. I am using this summer's The Bourne Ultimatum as a comparable, and Legend looks much stronger at this point in its marketing campaign. Bourne went off with 9 percent Un-Aided Awareness compared to a stellar 19 percent for I Am Legend. The Will Smith vehicle also tops Bourne in Definite Interest 58 percent to 55 percent, and look at these demographic breakouts.

Definite Interest (Males Under 25)
I Am Legend — 71 percent
The Bourne Ultimatum — 58 percent

Definite Interest (Males 25 Plus)
The Bourne Ultimatum — 63 percent
I Am Legend — 62 percent

Definite Interest (Females Under 25)
I Am Legend — 50 percent
The Bourne Ultimatum — 45 percent

Definite Interest (Females 25 Plus)
The Bourne Ultimatum — 51 percent
I Am Legend — 45 percent

So, the Under 25 crowd is excited about Legend, and, on a busy shopping weekend for 25 Pluses, that younger demo is more likely to show up on opening three-day. In the all-important Overall First Choice column, Will Smith trounces Jason Bourne 38 percent to 28 percent, and the breakdown of demographics is just as impressive.

First Choice (Males Under 25)
I Am Legend — 58 percent
The Bourne Ultimatum — 29 percent

First Choice (Males 25 Plus)
I Am Legend — 47 percent
The Bourne Ultimatum — 41 percent

First Choice (Females Under 25)
I Am Legend — 26 percent
The Bourne Ultimatum — 13 percent

First Choice (Females 25 Plus)
The Bourne Ultimatum — 31 percent
I Am Legend — 23 percent

The Bourne Ultimatum opened to $69.2 million on its opening weekend back in August, but it had the advantage of kids being out of school on Friday, and less of a Sunday drop-off than December movies typically suffer. Given that, I'm calling for $58 million-$61 million, which would be the biggest opening weekend of Smith's meteoric career.

Fox's Alvin and the Chipmunks, meanwhile, will hit 3,475 locations this weekend, and the studio is hoping for today's kids to show up along with parents looking for some nostalgia. Industry tracking is decent, though not spectacular. I'm using three comparables for comparison's sake: Bee Movie, the Dreamworks animated film, with its $38 million opening; the nostalgia-driven Underdog ($11.5 million opening); and the 'tween and teen geared Surf's Up. ($17.7 million opening). Alvin actually compares quite favorably, even to Bee Movie.

Overall Un-Aided Awareness
Bee Movie — 11 percent
Alvin and the Chipmunks — 8 percent
Underdog — 3 percent
Surf's Up — 3 percent

Overall Total Aware
Alvin and the Chipmunks — 84 percent
Bee Movie — 80 percent
Underdog — 80 percent
Surf's Up — 58 percent

Overall  Definite Interest
Bee Movie — 36 percent
Alvin and the Chipmunks — 34 percent
Surf's Up — 26 percent
Underdog — 16 percent

Overall First Choice
Alvin and the Chipmunks — 15 percent
Bee Movie — 14 percent
Underdog — 3 percent
Surf's Up — 4 percent

Based on those comparables, I'm calling for an upside surprise here, something in the $18 million-$21 million range, and don't be surprise if it goes a bit higher.

The final new wide release is The Perfect Holiday (Yari Film Group), another Christmas movie with a predominantly black cast, including Terrence Howard, Queen Latifah, Morris Chestnut and Gabrielle Union. The film actually opened on Wednesday with an estimated gross of $385,000, and it has added another $266,000 Thursday. Based on those numbers, I'm projecting a three-day in the $3 million-$3.5 million range and a five-day of $4 million-$4.5 million.

Here are my final predictions for this weekend, Dec. 14-16:
1. I Am Legend — $60 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks — $19.75 million
3. The Golden Compass — $13.25 million
4. Enchanted — $7 million
5. This Christmas — $3.3 million
6. The Perfect Holiday — $3.25 million
7. Fred Claus — $3.2 million
8. No Country for Old Men — $2.75 million
9. Beowulf — $2.7 million
10. August Rush — $2.5 million