WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'National Treasure' Aimed at 5-Day of $53.8M; Unstoppable 'Alvin' Will Top $160M by Wednesday; A Breakdown of How Best Picture Favorites are Performing, Including 'There Will Be Blood' 'Juno' and 'Atonement'!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY NIGHT: There is something for everyone at America's multiplexes and arthouses as we roll into 2008, and a fair number of both the wide release and specialty films are performing well.
By end of business on Wednesday, Will Smith's I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) will likely have become the eighth-highest-grossing 2007 release at $207.3 million, Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) will be No. 12 with $161.92 million and National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) will be at No. 14 with $142.21 million. With numbers like that, 2007 is going out with a bang. Book of Secrets was basically flat Friday-to-Saturday, though the latest adventure for treasure hunter Ben Gates should manage a $35.77 million three-day and a five-day of $53.81 million. Surprise hit Alvin continues to amaze at No. 2, and Legend is running third.
Oscar-caliber films like Charlie Wilson's War, Juno, Atonement and others are performing well in more limited release. For Oscar followers, here’s a breakdown of how potential Best Picture nominees are projected to perform over the five-day New Year's Holiday:
PROJECTED 5-DAY NEW YEARS BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF BEST PICTURE CONTENDERS
1. Charlie Wilson's War — $19.24 million [$41.98 million cume]
2. Juno — $15.8 million [$31.18 million cume]
3. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street — $12.47 million [$31.19 million cume]
4. The Great Debaters — $9.67 million [$16.91 million cume]
5. Atonement — $4.82 million [$12.93 million cume]
6. The Kite Runner — $2.39 million [$5.88 million cume]
7. No Country for Old Men — $2.33 million [$41.15 million cume]
8. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly — $390,720 [$1 million cume]
9. There Will Be Blood — $311,000 [$434,000 cume]
PROJECTED 5-DAY NEW YEARS PER THEATRE AVERAGE OF BEST PICTURE CONTENDERS
1. There Will Be Blood — 2 locations, $155,000 PTA
2. Juno — 998 locations, $15,833 PTA
3. Atonement — 310 locations, $15,552 PTA
4. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street — 1,249 locations, $9,989 PTA
5. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly — 42 locations, $9,303 PTA
6. The Great Debaters — 1,164 locations, $8,312 PTA
7. Charlie Wilson's War — 2,575 locations, $7,474 PTA
8. The Kite Runner — 377 locations, $6,345 PTA
9. No Country for Old Men — 960 locations, $2,434 PTA
Here are my early Saturday, revised three-day and revised five-day estimates:
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $12.46 million, $3,253 PTA [$113.08 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $10.79 million, $3,099 PTA [$133.55 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $9.98 million, $2,747 PTA [$186.2 million cume]
4. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $4.29 million, $1,666 PTA [$30.92 million cume]
5. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $3.46 million, $1,350 PTA [$23.65 million cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $3.44 million, $3,451 PTA [$22.1 million cume]
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $3.18 million, $1,291 PTA [$20.47 million cume]
8. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $3.07 million, $1,111 PTA [$13.87 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.9 million, $2,322 PTA [$24.26 million cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $2.37 million, $1,052 PTA [$108.83 million cume]
11. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $2.3M,
$1,976 PTA [$11.54 million cume]
12. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $1.56 million, $807 PTA
[$57.53 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.22 million, $461 PTA [$11.05 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $1.07 million, $3,480 PTA [$10.12 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $655,000, $682 PTA [$40 million cume]
16. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $575,000, $1,525 PTA [$4.5 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $160,000, $1,441 PTA [$1.4 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $95,000, $2,262 PTA [$779,000 cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $66,000, $33,000 PTA [$249,500 cume]
* NEW The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $65,000, $3,611 PTA [$125,000 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $64,000, $4,000 PTA [$394,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $23,000, $3,833 [$117,000 cume]
* NEW Honeydripper (Emerging Pictures) — $1,930, $643 PTA [$5,146 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $35.77 million, $9,337 PTA [$124.18 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $30.99 million, $8,897 PTA [$143.37 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $27.64 million, $7,603 PTA [$194.72 million cume]
4. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $12.05 million, $4,680 PTA [$34.78 million cume]
5. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $9.92 million, $9,947 PTA [$25.3 million cume]
6. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $9.69 million, $3,782 PTA [$26.52 million cume]
7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $9.01 million, $3,657 PTA [$23.3 million cume]
8. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $8.96 million, $3,234 PTA [$16.58 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $8.09 million, $6,483 PTA [$26.81 million cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $6.83 million, $3,020 PTA [$110.9 million cume]
11. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $6.3M,
$5,413 PTA [$13,54 million cume]
12. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $4.41 million, $2,280 PTA
[$58.92 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $3.56 million, $1,346 PTA [$12.11 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $3.01M $9,716 PTA [$11.12 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.75 million, $1,827 PTA [$40.5 cume]
17. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.54 million, $4,101 PTA [$5 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $422,600, $3,807 PTA [$1.5 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $251,150, $5,980 PTA [$867,000 cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $190,331, $95,166 PTA [$313,000 cume]
* NEW The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $184,288, $10,238 PTA [$184,000 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $169,960, $10,623 PTA [$451,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $61,042, $10,174 PTA [$137,000 cume]
* NEW Honeydripper (Emerging Pictures) — $6,689, $2,230 PTA [$6,689 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 5-DAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $53.81 million, $14,043 PTA [$142.1 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $49.54 million, $14,222 PTA [$161.92 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $40.22 million, $11,063 PTA [$207.3 million cume]
4. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $19.24 million, $7,474 PTA [$41.98 million cume]
5. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $15.8 million, $15,833 PTA [$31.18 million cume]
6. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $14.19 million, $5,122 PTA [$21.81 million cume] 7. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $13.9 million, $5,643 PTA [$28.2 million cume]
8. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $13.57 million, $5,296 PTA [$30.4 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $12.47 million, $9.989 PTA [$31.42 cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $10.64 million, $4,706 PTA [$114.7 million cume]
11. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $9.67 million, $8,312 PTA [$16.9 million cume]
12. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $6.79 million, $3,514 PTA
[$61.3 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $4.98 million, $1,882 PTA [$13.53 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $4.82 million, $15,552 PTA [$12.9 million cume]
15. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $2.39 million, $6,345 PTA [$5.88 million cume]
16. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $2.33 million, $2,434 PTA [$41.1 cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $650,950, $5,864 PTA [$1.7 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $390,720, $9,303 PTA [$1 million cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $311,080, $155,540 PTA [$433,609 cume]
* NEW The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $287,817, $15,990 PTA [$287,817 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $248,600, $15,538 PTA [$530,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $91,805, $15,301 PTA [$168,000 cume]
* NEW Honeydripper (Emerging Pictures) — $10,188, $3,396 PTA [$10,188 cume]
FRIDAY NIGHT: No time for much analysis tonight as I'm catching a very early flight on Saturday morning. Feel free to read any of my analysis posted earlier in the week, including the Friday thru Sunday column, my Christmas Eve piece, my Christmas Day/December 26 wrap-up, or the column I composed last night (Thursday).
Here are my estimates for Friday, plus three-day and five-day projections:
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $12.5 million, $3,262 PTA [$98.93 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $10.5 million, $3,014 PTA [$121.68 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $9 million, $2,475 PTA [$176.3 million cume]
4. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $4 million, $1,553 PTA [$26.5 million cume]
5. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $3.4 million, $1,227 PTA [$10.67 million cume]
6. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $3.3 million, $1,288 PTA [$19.88 million cume]
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $3.05 million, $3,056 PTA [$18.2 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $3 million, $1,218 PTA [$18.02 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.83 million, $2,266 PTA [$21.29 million cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $2.29 million, $1,015 PTA [$106.1 million cume]
11. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $2.1 million, $1,804 PTA [$9.4 million cume]
12. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $1.57 million, $812 PTA
[$56.3 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.25 million, $474 PTA [$9.69 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $790,000, $2,548 PTA [$8.8 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $575,000, $599 PTA [$39.3 million cume]
16. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $465,000, $1,233 PTA [$3.9 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $117,000, $1,054 PTA [$1.2 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $67,800, $1,614 PTA [$684,000 cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $60,971, $30,486 PTA [$183,500 cume]
* NEW The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $60,138, $3,341 PTA [$60,138 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $49,000, $3,063 PTA [$330,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $17,802, $2,967 [$94,000 cume]
* NEW Honeydripper (Emerging Pictures) — $3,216, $1,072 PTA [$3,216 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $37.625 million, $9,819 PTA [$124.06 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $32.55 million, $9,343 PTA [$143.73 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $27.18 million, $7,475 PTA [$194.5 million cume]
4. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $13.3 million, $5,165 PTA [$35.8 cume]
5. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $10.25 million, $3,999 PTA [$26.83 million cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $9.97 million, $9,993 PTA [$25.1 million cume]
7. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $9.7 million, $3,499 PTA [$16.97 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $8.85 million, $3,592 PTA [$23.87 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $8.77 million, $7,024 PTA [$27.23 cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $7 million, $3,095 PTA [$110.8 million cume]
11. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $6.3 million, $5,412 PTA [$12.19 million cume]
12. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $4.71 million, $2,437 PTA
[$59.4 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $3.9 million, $1,475 PTA [$12.34 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $2.52M $8,155 PTA [$10.55 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $1.81 million, $1,887 PTA [$40.6 cume]
17. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $1.39 million, $3,700 PTA [$4.8 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $374,400, $3,373 PTA [$1.5 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $216,960, $5,166 PTA [$833,000 cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $204,254, $102,127 PTA [$327,000 cume]
* NEW The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $198,455, $11,025 PTA [$198,455 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $147,000, $9,188 PTA [$428,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $55,186, $9,198 PTA [$131,000 cume]
* NEW Honeydripper (Emerging Pictures) — $9,166, $3,055 PTA [$9,166 cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 5-DAY ESTIMATES
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $55.62 million, $14,516 PTA [$142 million cume]
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks (20th Century Fox) — $47.77 million, $13,713 PTA [$158.95 million cume]
3. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $40.05 million, $11.015 PTA [$207.37 million cume]
4. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $18.4 million, $7,146 PTA [$40.9 million cume]
5. NEW The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) — $15.3 million, $5,519 PTA [$22.57 million cume]
6. Juno (Fox Searchlight) — $14.94 million, $14,975 PTA [$30.1 million cume]
7. NEW Alien vs. Predator: Requiem — $14.52 million, $5,665 PTA [$31.1 million cume]
8. P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $13.65 million, $5,540 PTA [$26.67 million cume]
9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $12.96 million, $10,377 PTA [$31.42 cume]
10. Enchanted (Disney) — $10.72 million, $4,739 PTA [$114.6 million cume]
11. NEW The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) — $9.55 million, $8,209 PTA [$16.85 million cume]
12. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $6.99 million, $3,615 PTA
[$61.7 million cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $5.35 million, $2,021 PTA [$13.7 million cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $3.87M $12,487 PTA [$11.9 million cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $2.64 million, $2,755 PTA [$41.4 cume]
17. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $2.13 million, $5,674 PTA [$5.6 million cume]
* The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $561,600, $5,059 PTA [$1.69 million cume]
* The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $325,440, $7,166 PTA [$917,000 cume]
* NEW There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) — $289,614, $144,807 PTA [$412,000 cume]
* NEW The Orphanage (Picturehouse) — $285,686, $15,870 PTA [$258,656 cume]
* NEW The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) — $222,950, $13,934 PTA [$504,000 cume]
* NEW Persepolis (Sony Classics) — $82,889, $13,648 PTA [$157,500 cume]
* NEW Honeydripper (Emerging Pictures) — $14,150, $4,717 PTA [$14,150 cume]
Steve, What number do you think "Alvin" is ultimately going to land on...north of $200 mil.? Pixar numbers?
Posted by: Bobby | December 31, 2007 at 12:27 AM
If that stupid "Alvin" movie ends up making more than "Ratatouille," I will be pissed.
Posted by: Ian | December 31, 2007 at 11:58 AM
Ian, I'm curious, at whom will you be "pissed" at...and more importantly, why? Do you only want films YOU like to make money? Or, are you simply a "Pixie" and can't stand attention being heaped on any other studios or creative entities? Happy New Year...oh, "Alvin" will probably pass "Rat" before you read this post;)..pissed enough?
Posted by: Bobby | December 31, 2007 at 06:57 PM
I'm very disappointed that more people, particularly African Americans didn't support The Great Debaters. They will support ill conceived, poorly written thug movies like This Sunday (about vandals robbibng a church) and such but not a movie steeped in history that uplifts us all, particularly young African American children. Well you didn't support Akeelah and the Bee either, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
Posted by: Fairy | January 02, 2008 at 10:25 PM